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A High-tech Wheel of Fortune
Posted by
michael
on Sat Mar 27, 2004 05:45 PM
from the no-whammies dept.
from the no-whammies dept.
tcp writes "The BBC is reporting that the London police have detained three people, for allegedly beating the roulette wheel at a London casino. Using a cell phone, a computer and a laser scanner, they were able to predict where the roulette ball would land, winning more than 1.5 million dollars in the process. This technique was not new, and as I recall was the plot of a movie once. The suspects have not been charged yet. The UK has been behind in bringing their gambling laws to deal with new hi-tech threats unlike the US and Las Vegas."
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Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Interesting)
Some other obvious cheating examples:
-Bringing in cameras and linking them so a player can see his opponent's cards.
-Using a device to let you predict/influence the roll of the dice.
-Hacking a slot machine to produce winning pulls
The point? It's not a flaw with the casino or their equipment - it's a bunch of jackasses trying to cheat.
Parent
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Insightful)
But, they didn't cheat. The croupier turned the wheel and released the ball. All they did was "predict", albiet with the help of some equipment. Isn't that what gambling is about? Predicting?
As the article states, the casino can avoid prediction, by simply spinning the wheel faster.
Parent
Information and games of 'skill' (Score:5, Interesting)
Historical quirk: I live in Kansas City, KS. Across the state line in MO there are riverboat casinos that were originally approved under the language that mentioned 'games of skill'. At that time, video draw poker was legal, because of the skill involved in deciding which cards to hold, and which to discard, but not the run-of-the-mill slots (which have since been allowed by changes in the law). At that time, this method of winning at roulette, or card counting at the blackjack table, could not have been opposed by the casinos because they had to maintain the legal theory that skill was involved in these games. The boats in MO quickly adopted rules for the number of decks in the shoe, how far into it a reshuffle is done, and the delta between minimum and maximum bets, so as to make counting irrelevant. I believe those rules remain in effect today...
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Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Interesting)
As well, as the article notes, PLAYERS don't like it! There are only so many rule changes you can make in the interest of cheat reductions before the legitimate players get fed up and leave. (One of these is disallowing blackjack players to increase the number of hands they play mid-shoe). As an aside, in the Province of Alberta, casino dealers are to stop betting two ball revolutions BEFORE THE DROP, not after the spin commences. As in many gambling areas, the regulations must be changed: the casino can't just create rules (even sensible ones) out of the blue.
For this reason, speeding up the wheel and reducing bet times are not good ideas. It will prevent cheating, because the legitimate players will stop playing and the game will be shut down!
The best way to prevent wheel tracking I've found is just to constantly (every spin) change the speed of the wheel and the ball. I like to let the wheel slow and then push it with the ball just before I spin. This would require these cheats to constantly re-compute, increasing the likelihood of detection.
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Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Interesting)
That's the point really. There is a way to predict the outcome. Like a lot of games, it is not a game of pure skill, it has an element of chance and an element of skill in the form of predicting where the ball will land. Just like blackjack is a game of chance and skill. The skill comes in when you try to predict what cards are going to be dealt based on statistics and your knowledge of what cards have been dealt so far. Of course, the casinos consider people who are too good at "counting cards" to be cheaters as well.
The problem here is that the argument that you cannot use technological devices to help you in gambling is a slippery slope argument. I've never heard of a casino banning anyone for glasses or contacts, even if they help people see better and therefore enhance their natural gambling skills. What about future visual aids. Lets say you have a low resolution artificial retina for blind which cannot see as well or in the same way as a normal retina and makes up for it by, for example, using a computer to track motion and plotting courses for objects in Heads Up Display? Or how about if it allows the user to rewind their vision to specific bookmarks, allowing them to supplement their memory (helpful in remember what cards have already been dealt, for example). Are the disabled going to be banned from future casinos?
All this is really beyond the point in my opinion. Random redistribution of wealth at casions is stupid. Redistribution of wealth based on exceptional skill at gambling is considered cheating by the casinos. The government, when they allow private gambling to interfere on their own gambling monopoly, seem to agree with the casinos in these matters. So, the end result is that, on the whole, the only people who actually win at casinos are the odd successful gambler, the cheaters who do not get caught, and the casinos themselves. In other words, casinos are dumb. I guess I hold the view that people should be allowed to gamble if they want to, but I think they are stupid to do so.
Parent
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Insightful)
I have mod points, but I feel the need to reply here, though it sounds like flamebait.
The 3 other "obvious" emaples you cite are cheating - they circumvent the rules of the guessing competition. Why do you label the actions mentioned in the story as cheating? No rules have been circumvented. All that is being done is making use of the information which is available to everyone in a clever way.
A similar thing happens with card counting in blackjack - all you do is play the game in a smart way instead of blindly guessing. However, the casinos don't want people to do anything other than blindly guess because it means the odds can be tipped in their favour instead of in favour of the house.
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Boohooooo! (Score:4, Funny)
Oh, please, won't someone think of the casinos!?!
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Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:4, Insightful)
For a casino that uses and 8 deck shoe (+.58% H/A) and allows doubles after splitting (-.14% H/A) you are playing a game with a
While playing this shoe, if you use the high/low count system, and have a true count of +2 you are actually playing at a
There are thousands of books on counting out there, I suggest that you check out a few and see what can really be done.
Parent
Laws to protect obsolete business (Score:5, Interesting)
So what we have here are laws that are designed to protect an obsolete business model from technology. And yet: these laws have nothing to do with protecting anyone from force or fraud.
Wait a minute .. why isn't it fraud?
It's not fraud because the little gambler never asserted that he promises to remain stupid and not make use of information, or to not do anything that will help him. (What's next, are you going to make it illegal to cross your fingers and pray?) It's not like the other consenting partner in the gamble, isn't making use of a shitload of information and technology against him. And it isn't as though the other partner doesn't doesn't already have odds on their side. So the very premise that 'fairness' has somehow been compromised, is laughable.
The fact is: some forms of gambling have been made obsolete, and we're propping them up with legislation. That doesn't smell good, to me. And it sets a really lousy precedent. If gambling can be propped up, then other industries can be, too.
Parent
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:4, Interesting)
And if a cheater ends up in a dumpster, that's murder. Whomever did that should be executed. I don't mind paying for that.
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I know... (Score:5, Insightful)
If you can find a way to improve your chances, it's probably against the rules. The only game I'm aware of that has a better than 50% chance of winning (against the house, that is) is blackjack.
Winning big (and often) on roulette raises eyebrows right away. They could have at least tried to beat a game that wasn't quite so obvious.
Re:I know... (Score:5, Informative)
Even the most basic of card counts gives you a slight advantage (1/4 to 1/2%), however. You have to be very patient and wait for a good shoe, however.
Chris
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Re:I know... (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re:I know... (Score:5, Interesting)
Group 1 - cards 5 or less
Group 2 - 10's or face cards
When you've counted a significantly higher number of group 1's than group 2's, increase your bet - more high cards gives the player better odds, and vice versa.
I did this in Vegas with a 2-deck shoe that they cut 22 cards out of at shuffle and won $290 at a $5 table...I would bet $20 on the first hand of a shoe and $10 - $20 on a somewhat favorable to very favorable shoe thereafter, and $5 every other time. I didn't even count the whole deck, just each hand. With about 21 cards per hand at a six-player table, if I got a +5 or better inbalance, I ramped up my bets. And it worked like a charm, I probably won 75% of my big bets and lost 75% of my small bets (give or take), therefore netting me profit in the end.
Chris
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Tipping the odds in your favor... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Tipping the odds ...(have billions of $?) (Score:5, Informative)
This is true, but you need to have amounts of money approaching or exceeding the capitalization of the casino (the ratio of the sizes is important). IIRC, big casinos are usually capitalized at over $10 billion to avoid the problem of losing streaks. With a only a slight advantage and a modest starting stake, too many random walks of bets end in gambler's ruin. And if you pick a tiny casino, then the most you can win is modest. (And if you pick any casino, they will throw you out if you win too much.)
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Re:Tipping the odds in your favor... (Score:5, Funny)
If you have that much capital, then to hell with the gambling. Go get some hookers!
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Re:Card Counting is mostly Bunk (Score:5, Interesting)
Still, interesting story... back jack dealers can feel a flow of a deck for or against the house and can change that flow with specific shuffles? You have to find something to back this up, it's just too fantastic. But very cool sounding none the less.
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Re:Card Counting is mostly Bunk (Score:5, Informative)
They assume a random distribution of the cards at shuffle. This is so far from the truth it is unreal. Each casino has a different way to shuffle the shoe. It does redistribute the cards, but it is not at all random. Since casino has its own shuffle any strategy will be casino-specific. The distribution of high and low cards gets slowly shifted at each shuffle. At the beginning of the day every deck is in a pre-set order. Each shuffle modifies that order in a predictable way. If you have a card counting strategy, it would be best to include, as part of your strategy, the number of times a shoe has been shuffled. When they break open new decks of cards, the shuffle count starts anew.
First off: shuffle tracking and card counting are two separate matters. Shuffle tracking identifies high and low card slugs, by counting the show, and then tracks those slugs through the shuffle in order to take advantage of them. Card counting is a mathematical system to keep track of how many high/low/neutral cards have come out of the shoe (depending on the system). Then, using this running count and the remainder of cards left in the shoe a card counter can determine the advantage at that moment, wheter for the player or house, and adjust his betting strategy. When a dealer shuffle and a new shoe begins, all of the cards have been put back in, and the count starts again. It doesn't matter how many times, or what way this deck has been shuffled.
Any experienced dealer will tell you that a shoe has a "flow" to it. The shoe will either be rewarding the house or the players. When the dealer shuffles the cards, they can either shuffle in a way that generally preserves the flow or shuffle in a way that generally reverses the flow. This does not work 100% of the time, but it does work.
Really, and what is exactly this flow? A slug of high cards, or is it just a bunch of good Karma on the cards? How exactly does this dealer ex-wife of yours shuffle cards in order to maintain "the flow". I, and many other gaming professionals, would be very interested to learn more about maintaining "the flow" of a shoe during a blackjack shuffle.
The dealer cannot target a particular player, but they can target the table as a whole.
Again, I would really like to learn this trick. I have yet so any demonstatable techniques for a dealer to target a table so that they all lose. Does she summon the goddess Rita who will smite all these nasty players, or does she just send some bad Karma their way?
Sorry if I am so sarcastic, but these are just ridiculous old wives tales, akin to if she floats, shes a witch!!!
Parent
that's new... (Score:5, Interesting)
some people who would consider themselves professionals do the same thing by eye - make a guesstimate based on when the roulette employee releases the ball - but to do it with computers - well, that's just wrong
but if it ain't illegal, it'll be hard to prosecute - it's like counting cards...not illegal, but you'll get your butt booted from the casino pronto -
RB
Re:that's new... (Score:5, Interesting)
In Las Vegas, for example, they can simply tell a card counter they're no longer welcome there and force them to leave. In Atlantic City, they cannot, but they are allowed to annoy a card counter out of their casino with tactics such as a shuffle after every hand.
Parent
Physics can solve anything if it has all the info (Score:5, Interesting)
That's why it's essential that some details of the mixing situation should not be disclosed to the public while betting is still going on. I think what makes most daily blower-bin based lotto games unpredictible is the fact that the exact to-the-nanosecond time at which the bin is opened is being determined by a presenter who is also responsible for talking at the same time. Therefore, they can't possibly have enough control of their hands know what exactly their influence on the outcome is going to do. Since nobody else can really predict down to the fraction of a second what the presenter is going to do, everybody's on a level playing field.
I think the ultimate solution to this roulette wheel issue will be to call a stop to betting before the ball and wheel are put into motion. Therefore, by the time the information needed to determine the result of this spin is available, it will be too late to act upon it.
Re:Physics can solve anything if it has all the in (Score:5, Insightful)
Unfortunately though, we live in an analogue World. It's impossible to specify the exact position of anything in relation to anything else
Parent
Re:Physics can solve anything if it has all the in (Score:4, Insightful)
The most famous example is the weather, were a butterfly flapping it's wings in the Amazone could theoretically cause a violent storm in Brittain. This mathematician in the first Jurassic parc film also tries to explain it, using drops flowing down from a hand.
I think balls in a bin are a chaotic process.
Parent
How bizarre! (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:How bizarre! (Score:5, Informative)
If you know the wheel speed and the entry quadrant of the ball then you can calculate the probability of the resulting quadrant.
Since the table is laid out in numerical order, with groupings that do not allow betting on wheel sectors, you have to quickly spread chips across the numbers that this system selects.
This must all be done very quickly. It has been done before without the phoone/camera - but yoy still need a spotter to communicate with the person placing the chips.
Three things that make this a short term proposition - you need a spotter and a gambler and a covert means of communication , you need to have the ammo to bet consistently for a long time, it is easy to detect - start winning consistently at roulette and a lot of eyes will be watching.
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Bringing Down the house (Score:5, Informative)
Eudaemonic Pie not Bringing Down the house (Score:5, Informative)
It's about some kids who did this back in the 70s.
The article interviewed one of them.
Roulette isn't random, you have to have a real ball released at a real time and place at a real velocity.
Same for the wheel.
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hungarians (Score:4, Interesting)
http://index.hu/tech/tudomany/ritz040323/
in hungarian.
Later they said, that this device cannot exist, as such a device would be least a pc large and needs a calibration of some hours and at least NASA technique to make it.
So at last, they said, that there are a number of people who actually can figure out what is the winning number from the spinning of the wheel by her own eye.
The article also mentions, that after all, they don't really need to now the EXACT target of the ball, if they can close out 2 numbers, they can earn an average of 3% per round.
So anyway, it's a weird weird story with SCI-FI elements...
Well you know one thing (Score:5, Funny)
I bet it's illegal to duel in the casino & you have to leave your hired help in the coat room.
Idiots. (Score:5, Interesting)
Worst case I ever heard of: A guy who had worked on PNRGs for casinos (yes, way back when such things were deemed good enough) decided to cash in, so he got together with a friend and wrote a quick program to sync in the the PRNG given a reasonable number of inputs. The PRNGs were mostly (and still are sometimes!) used for the keno games. He had his friend up in the hotel room with a laptop, and phoned up the numbers from a few rounds of keno. They got what seemed to be a reasonable sync, so he put a massive amount of cash predicting the next 10 numbers in order (which has stupendous returns (naturally)). Bang, up come all 10 numbers, in order. The police arrested his accomplice in the hotel room about 10 minutes later...
Jedidiah.
Re:Idiots. (Score:5, Informative)
Any analysis looking for individual card counters would turn up nothing interesting going on... and trying to determine that a team was in play posed the problem of identifying team members while there was noise from other casino customers moving through the same tables.
Parent
A friend of mine had a job at the casino (Score:5, Interesting)
He said the only way to win on roulette more or less reliably is to play against the guy who has more money than you. If the guy selects some numbers or colors, put your money onto opposite colors and numbers that are far from his numbers if possible. The guy will throw a ball in such a way as to screw the guy who put the most money into the game.
Re:A friend of mine had a job at the casino (Score:4, Informative)
Utter, utter bullshit.
First, there are metal studs on the wheel into which the ball occasionally runs. These pop the ball up a little bit and cause it to run down to the numbers more quickly.
Secondly, the ball is launched before betting begins. Unless the mark always bets on the same numbers, how is the dealer supposed to know on what number to put the ball?
A casino has nearly guaranteed profit, and lots of it, from a perfectly honest wheel. Every bet available has a house edge of 5.26%. Why would you cheat the guy who is "winning REAL big" when you can chip away at his winnings gradually perfectly legally?
Finally, the last place a casino would put such a person is anywhere near a roulette wheel. Such a person could have a confederate making bets on pre-selected numbers in a completely undetectable way.
Parent
read "the eudaemonic pie" by thomas a. bass (Score:5, Insightful)
As an aside... If you really want to play an advantage game in a casino, try a game where you don't play against the house. Like poker.
Re:read "the eudaemonic pie" by thomas a. bass (Score:4, Informative)
This was done at the only time it could be done, as casinoes eventually caught on to others with "shoe computers". They were taken to a back room and their equipment "confiscated".
You could actually buy shoe computers ready made for this purpose in the early eighties.
Casinoes now (and have had for quite some time) equipment that can detect your shoe computer via the hash it generates. Also there are scramblers that generate an RF field that can cause computers to glitch.
I believe the shoe computer in the book was based on the venerable 6502 microprocessor (at least at first anyway).
Wearable computers are all descended from this.
Parent
Fuck Em (Score:5, Insightful)
Been done before in 1873 (Score:5, Informative)
Beating the odds on a roulette wheel has been done before and was done most famously by "the man who broke the bank at Monte Carlo" Joseph Jaggers [wikipedia.org]. He made $450,000 which in 1873 was a LOT of money.
AFAIK in order to circumvent predicting the numbers by this method, the casinos regularly move the wheels from one table to another. The act of moving the wheel throws the predictors off aswell as changing any possible bias in the wheel.
This newer technique seems better, although it seems that you have to know the coefficient of friction between ball and wheel which I suppose could vary enough between each wheel to throw of your calculations.
The first wearable computer was invented to cheat (Score:5, Informative)
It's all about ball control... (Score:5, Interesting)
Although no casino will admit to its existence and very few dealers will nod in acknowledgement, this method is very powerful and easy to disguise. One cannot deny that a roulette event is heavily influenced by a human dealer. After all, it is the dealer who kicks up the rotor speed and launches the little white ball isn't it? These actions definitely affect where the ball will land. And after years of repeatedly spinning, the dealer develops what athletes call "muscle memory" or a consistent delivery system. I will admit it to you right here, as someone who has dealt the game of roulette, SOME DEALERS CAN CONSCIOUSLY INFLUENCE THE RESULT OF THE GAME. There, I said it! I know that deflectors may knock a ball off its original course or the ball may spatter when it crosses onto the rotor and hits a pocket fret, but even if a skilled dealer could navigate around the heavily bet sectors on the wheel only 10% of the time, the casino's edge would be 100% for those spins! The house's edge would then be [(9) x 5.26% + (1) x 100.00%] all divided by 10. This averages out to a whooping 14.73 % edge! To further add to this dilemma, there is no way to prove that the dealer is trying to cheat you, unless you can read minds! My general observations have led me to believe that "male" roulette dealers are more territorial. If you begin to win steadily at their tables, they feel challenged and may spin against you... that is unless you're a shapely female wearing a low-cut dress. I've also seen first-generation immigrants working as dealers, who are staunchly loyal to their new employers. If the issue of ball control troubles you, you can simply wait for the dealer to spin before placing your bets. You might actually turn this technique in your favor. If you recognize a skillful dealer and can build a rapport with him or her, you may be able to exploit their ability. One way to induce a dealer into hitting your number is to bet a sector or continuous section on the rotor of say, five pockets. Place a toke out for the dealer on the number situated at the sector's center. The dealers seem to appreciate a crack at collecting 35 times their original toke if they exhibit some control. If they miss your center number by one or two pockets, then you still win on the neighbors contained in that sector.
Source [roulette2002.com]
Casino Hacking (Score:5, Interesting)
You can hack with cable TV games too... (Score:4, Interesting)
Parent
I don't think this is right... (Score:5, Interesting)
You might as well outlaw all ways that people try to give themselves better odds. Those who go to certain slot machines (that have been loosing for a long time) should be illegial, since it is a way people try to improve their odds.
People playing blackjack should be thrown out if they stay at a pre-set number (eg. 17 or 18).
My point is that it should not be illegial to beat the house... But that seems to be the way it is. There is no consistency in the rules of what is and is not acceptible at a casion, EXCEPT that you are doing something wrong if you win.
Counting cards with a computer could be reasonably considered illegial, but how about those that do so without computer assistance?
People should be able to sue a casio that throws them out (when they are winning) without any proof that they are cheating.
In other news... (Score:5, Funny)
Sheesh.
<bart
A Patch For This Exploit (Score:5, Interesting)
(-1, dorky) (Score:5, Funny)
Casinos LOVE this type of thing. (Score:5, Insightful)
Why?
Because the PRESS claims that with a little smarts, the average guy can beat the casino! If you're really smart and really quiet about it, you can beat 'em and become rich beyond your wildest dreams!
Therefore, you get a lot of quasi-smart losers into the casinos, all who have the fantisy of "out-smarting Vegas". Those people proceed to lose all kinds of money as they "hone their smarts".
This is exactly how casinos attract people who are "too smart" to waste their time gambling.
Card counting, roulette prediction, psuedo-random numbers of elecontrics-based slot machines - they're all an ADVERTISEMENT designed to attract those who imagine that they're super-smart enough to tilt the odds. Of course, it simply isn't true.
The casinos in Vegas would love you to come to Vegas and attempt to put your super-smart skills into action... just as long as other players don't see you "attempting to cheat" - the casinos don't want you to scare any other customers away.
Re:Las Vegas (Score:5, Informative)
BBC News last year [bbc.co.uk], Australian last week [news.com.au]. I sent the story in, I thought they would be too prudish to publish. I was right.
Under UK law it is considered prostitution but prostitution is not and never has been illegal in the UK. Soliciting an act of prostitution is illegal however. It is far from clear that this was technically soliciting in the meaning of the act.
Prostitution and internet soliciting have actually been widely tollerated by the police in the UK for about ten years. The police would rather be in the business of regulating brothels than dealling with street walkers.
There is another police angle that I have a personal connection with. I used to work in a computer shop at the weekends. It was not in a very good location and it closed down sometime after I left. After a while the shop became a 'massage parlor'. This operated without complaints for a year until a girl was murdered by one of the clients. As the law stood (still stands in fact) a single girl working on her own is not a brothel, but two are. As a result the city council and the local police decided to tell the local establishements that from now on they would not enforce the brothel-keeping law. They also tolerate Web sites which give little doubt as to their true purpose. Oh and the shop is now a very expensive financial services advice place catering to 'high net worth' individuals.
The other reason that the virginity auction is unlikely to be prosecuted is that the event was a staged protest at the cost of school fees. The government does not want this to become a saga, particularly as they have proposed complete legalization.
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