Slashdot Log In
Is The 6-Month Product Cycle Upon Us?
Posted by
timothy
on Wed Jul 07, 2004 08:51 AM
from the even-planneder-obsolesence dept.
from the even-planneder-obsolesence dept.
Mark Goldstein writes "What is perhaps more interesting than the 4 new Konica Minolta cameras announced today is the rapid product cycle that seems to have been established by both Konica Minolta and other manufacturers." Rather than the yearly model updates that people have come to expect, the article notes that three members of this batch aren't even a year old, and one is only six months.
This discussion has been archived.
No new comments can be posted.
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
Full
Abbreviated
Hidden
Loading... please wait.
Six month death spiral (Score:4, Insightful)
All show and no substance...
I mean that's what seems to be happening with these rapid production cycles; they concentrate so much on improving one aspect that the entire product suffers, or at least starts to suffer, from it.
And let's not forget our favorite one, Microsoft; Although I'm sure this is not the main reason M$ sucks... *Insert M$ bashing here* *and here*
*and here*
*and a little more here...*
Re:Six month death spiral (Score:4, Informative)
models also change a lot and quite fast, while just the looks which have changed while the features are almost the same..
at least usually external cd-changers stay the compatible but if you have a changer of 2-3 years old it can be quite a task to find out with which current radio it still works (as I found out recently)
Parent
2 big areas that suffer (Score:4, Insightful)
1) Reliability - products will be more prone to fail. But, I guess this just forces you to go out and get a new one. Kind of like how many cars are now "disposable". You have them for a couple years and dispose of them to get new ones.
2) Quality - They aren't the quality products they used to be. They sure don't build them like they used to.
Parent
Re:2 big areas that suffer (Score:4, Insightful)
There were no good old days.
Parent
Re:2 big areas that suffer (Score:4, Insightful)
There are a fair number of old cars running around the US also. I wish there were fewer. Driving behind a thirty year old beetle is a hellish experience filled with noxious fumes and headaches. Cars don't run as long anymore because they are more complicated. The number one reason they are more complicated is beacause of emission controls. These controls are a good thing, because they help make sure that our air is breathable.
Parent
Re:Six month death spiral (Score:4, Insightful)
Parent
Re:Six month death spiral (Score:4, Interesting)
And let's not forget our favorite one, Microsoft; Although I'm sure this is not the main reason M$ sucks... *Insert M$ bashing here* *and here*
While I agree with the general idea that too rapid production cycles can be bad, Microsoft is hardly a major villain in this case. For each new Windows version, there have been improvements across the board, not just on single areas. Some would argue that this is not true for the Windows 95-98-Me line, which aren't quite as different from one another as the NT-2k-XP line (and 2k-2k3). However, 2-3 years is hardly a "rapid cycle" when talking computer software.
Let's also not forget that Windows Longhorn is still another year away at least, will have MAJOR new features across the board according to the information from Redmond thus far, and it's been some time since XP was released (2k3 doesn't count as a "new" Windows in this context as it's just XP for servers). So regarding OS's, Microsoft are hardly guilty of pushing a "rapid product cycle" in order to squeeze consumers for money (they compensate by charging lots for their software instead - different story which I will not bother with here).
Microsoft Office is, however, a different story. OpenOffice.org has only a subset of Microsoft Office 2003's features, but I don't find myself missing anything. I guess this means nothing of massive substance has been added to Office since '95 or so - but others would digress. There have been huge debates over this before but I think the general consensus is that the new features, however insignificant, must be of value to somebody, so there's no harm in Microsoft releasing new versions of Office every year - after all, there's not much more that can be added to Word or Excel in terms of "major features" (think "major" like the introduction of USB support in Windows 98 here. Now THAT's major!) but some will likely get the new versions anyway for the extra bells 'n whistles. Anyone who doesn't need the new features can just stick to their old versions or get OOo if they hit EOL. Problem solved.
Parent
Whats next? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Whats next? (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
So What? (Score:4, Insightful)
The six month turn around just means that when I do need to buy a product it is more likely that it will be a time of year when I will be buying a realitively new product.
I think this is a good thing (unless this turns out to be too little time for testing).
Re:So What? (Score:4, Insightful)
Parent
Good for business (Score:4, Insightful)
Of course, this plays havoc with review readers, since by the time a product is reviewed, a new batch of products is out...
Re:Good for business (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
Re:Good for business (Score:4, Informative)
eg:
Netgear WG311 was an Atheros supported by the madwifi [sourceforge.net] driver but is now a Texus Intruments which is yet to have a stable driver (partial success has been had with this one [sourceforge.net], just not by me). At *least* Netgear had the kindness to call the TI version "WG311v2" and change the box slightly (documented here [netgear.com] it still makes it really annoying when you see "supported" next to "wg311" at places such as here [linuxquestions.org], then you buy one and find out it's changed from 4 weeks ago)
The (in)famous Linksys WMP11 used to be a linux-friendly prism but is now a Broadcomm or inprocomm (I think it's been both according to The List [linux-wlan.org]
Many other wifi cards have undergone such massive (I consider a chipset change massive) changes without there model numbers changed and it makes getting a wireless card for linux *VERY* difficult and frustrating.
Parent
Only for some. (Score:5, Insightful)
I just want a phone, I don't want to pay for new features I don't need in a new phone in 6 months after my current phone falls apart because they made a piece of crap.
Upon us? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Upon us? (Score:5, Insightful)
Personally I want my purchases to *last*, I don't care if a "better" product is available the fact remains that when I bought something it did what I expected and required it to do and a year later it should still do it, hopefully for much longer.
I really dislike the way the entire technology arena is going, I am only 19 and already I see far too much "progress" for comfort. I look at my dad who has been able to keep the same job for 19 years and I know that I simply won't be able to do that.
But in all this change, I think we should all remember Ecclesiastes 7:10:
Do not say, "Why were the old days better than these?" For it is not wise to ask such questions.
People longed for the past 5000odd years ago and they still do it today, humans all share an odd similarity.
I sorta strayed a bit there...Aw well.
Parent
Re:Upon us? (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
I don't recall ever having yearly product cycles (Score:4, Insightful)
Have we? I'm more surprised that anyone expected model updates once a year. I expect them whenever the manufacturer believes that bringing out a new model is economically viable. I certainly don't see a new model 6 months after the last one as being particularly noteworthy.
Is this just an American thing? I mean, the rest of the world has never had things like cars being different from one year to the next, yet in the US, you seem to have a new version of each car model each year, being arbitrarily different to the last, apparently just for the sake of being different and new for that particular year.
Re:I don't recall ever having yearly product cycle (Score:5, Informative)
On the contrary, it's particularly an Asian thing, both in electronics and in cars. The Japanese auto makers change things at the part level much more frequently than the Americans do, for example.
It seems like a lot of British and Europeans forget how much more connected the US economy is to East Asia than theirs are.
Parent
It's the market, silly (Score:5, Insightful)
There are still too many camera manufacturers and the costs are still too high. The market will slow down when the cost per camera has come down to around $20 and the functionality is more than the average consumer wants. There will always be a market for premium products but this is not what is driving the current cycle: it's the mass market.
Standard technology curve... aka Heironymous' Law.
Faster != better (Score:5, Insightful)
The manufacturers, will also lose out as they end up haemmoraging their own profits by reducing the return on research investments as well as losing the opportunity to build up a brand like Apple did with their iPod.
6 month life cycle...good or bad? (Score:5, Interesting)
Consumer - on one hand (as the second link points out), this is great for the consumer, because newer models causes the prices on the older models to drop, and then the consumer can possibly afford "more" camera then they otherwise could...of course, the flip side to this, is that you have to be satisfied with a camera that is "out of date"...
Retail Store - although I'm sure all major electronic stores like Best Buy, Circuit City, etc, have excellent supply chain management, I still gotta believe they get stuck holding the bag a little when new cameras are announced every six months, and suddenly all of the current cameras they had in stock suddenly become devalued...
Camera Company - obviously this is good for them...we've seen it time and time again, with cell phones being the most recent example...even though a consumer may be happy with their current product, they just have to have the most up-to-date, shiny, feature filled version of whatever it may be (cell phone, camera, pc, etc)...
The bottom line is, I still think it's good for the consumer...look what this same type of accelerated cycle has done for the home PC...parents everywhere can now buy much more PC then they could ever use, very cheaply...yoou just gotta be able to live with not having the best and fastest thing out there (ugh, this might be the wrong forum to propose that idea)...
Re:6 month life cycle...good or bad? (Score:4, Insightful)
The major bad thing about this is that the more rapid the product cycle, the crappier the firmware or supporting desktop software is, making us more and more dependent on frequent and numerous software updates to get relatively bug-free operation.
With ultra-fast product cycles, we're looking at software obsolence and product abandonment far faster than we otherwise would have. The device may still work, but have critical bugs/problems/issues that aren't resolved without buying the next item in the product cycle.
It's obviously something less of an issue with devices that have a non-proprietary data interface (eg, memory cards), but something like the iPod really needs its proprietary software to function as designed. But it's still a critical issue regardless if the firmware inside the device doesn't work right.
I love updatable firmware, I hate the fact that it's become an excuse for manufacturers to release broken products and sometimes fix them as they go.
Parent
Re:6 month life cycle...good or bad? (Score:4, Insightful)
All this will continue while the market is red hot (which is great for the customer). When it slows down the choice will not be so good but atleast everything will be cheap!
James
Parent
Re:6 month life cycle...good or bad? (Score:3, Funny)
George Bush
One way it is bad for the consumer (Score:4, Insightful)
Now, whether this lower quality will even be noticeable, or whether it is a valid tradeoff for increased functionality, is yet to be seen.
Parent
Re:6 month life cycle...good or bad? (Score:4, Insightful)
I know that I will always be one to laugh when I see a 4 year old fridge thrown out and a 40 year old fridge continue to cool like it was brand new. Even if it is only used to cool beer at some summer beachhouse I admire the fact that it was built to last. Imagine how satisfying it would be knowing that the camera you bought today was powered off a plutonium heat cell and would last as well as the Voyager probe [nasa.gov].
Parent
Microsoft et al. (Score:5, Interesting)
I've often wondered why Microsoft and the other main software companies have not abandonded the idea of major product releases. Incremental releases (like those in the OSS world) make a lot more sense, as the product then evolves more organically. There is no real reason why MS couldn't start doing this for it's products. It would be much easier to get people to "subscribe" to products then, which would be good in the long term for Microsoft's revenue stream.
Re:Microsoft et al. (Score:3, Insightful)
Been that way in fashion forever (Score:3, Interesting)
This is an advertisement (Score:3, Insightful)
Welcome to Slashdot, where we debate the commonplace if we can't find a better way to work in an advertisement.
Dogbert (Score:5, Insightful)
Bad for quality, great for the corporate stocks!
Re:Dogbert (Score:3, Funny)
Faster != Better (Score:3, Insightful)
To engineering it means rushed deveopment schedules, hurried design, tooling, testing, and release to production.
Its a delicate scale. Push it too far towards marketing and you risk significant quality problems. Push it too far toward engineering and you miss your market window.
I hope not! (Score:4, Interesting)
I can't imagine physical products are much different. Sure, you get a new model every 6 months, but what's really changed? Personally, I'd like to wait a year, and get a substantial benefit. My experience is that shorter cycles are good for the marketing droids (who always have vaporware "almost" ready to release) and bad for the customer and the developer.
Oh, and another funny thing. The same customers who demand quarterly releases also bitch about the fact they have to migrate ever four months. I told them there was a simple solution to that problem... :)
Versionitis. (Score:5, Interesting)
What fails to get mentioned or noticed by consumers is that digital cameras and mega pixels they support have reached a plateau as to what they are used for to why I need that many MP.
3MP was enough for a 8x10 print, 6MP got you into the 13x19 range. anything higher than that just makes the files bigger and can introduce more compression artifacts as you try and reduce the file size with all the detail presented.
I've got a Canon D60 that I bought in 2002. I've been adding lenses and the like over the last few years but the camera itself is a workhorse and I have no MP reason to replace it. however I'd like a few faster things like shutter speed and whatnot more than how many MP they do.
I've had to reign in my self-control quite a few times on big ticket items. It was about 18 months ago when I decided that getting a new computer once a year was stupid and a waste of money. My Powerbook G4 867Mhz is doing me just fine still. The only thing that'd force an upgrade is manipulating larger MP camera images in Photoshop, so keeping everything in check on upgrades sure helps keep money for other things.
Re:Versionitis. (Score:3, Informative)
For the price of these 8MP cameras, you can get the canon rebel digital or even the Nikon D70 and you have a quality digital SLR, ability to change lens, and excellent results at low ISOs.
I just bought a Canon 10D. As the parent said in this thread, I just need the lenses and this package will be good for me for years...
Down to the power of IT (Score:5, Insightful)
I suppose with PC assistence, designing and building just about anything has become easier. It used to take forever for ideas and techniques to spread. Nowadays if your stuck at anything, you can google for the answer. Applies more to software design, but at least it's easier for designers to find components now. Didn't it take only 6 months for the iPod designers complete the design from the outside in, using off the shelf parts. That would have been a lot harder if they didn't have the net and emails I'd wager.
my luck/purchase cycle (Score:3, Funny)
I purchased a 799$ camera that then went to 799$ with a 100$ rebate, about 10 days after I purchased. then to 699 after the return policy/price match date ran out..
I've also done this with cell phones, and cpu's
Re:my luck/purchase cycle (Score:3, Funny)
It's All About Creating Artificial Demand (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:It's All About Creating Artificial Demand (Score:4, Insightful)
If a particular manufacturer decides that once every 3 years is enough, it will not sell anything for the 70% of the time, because everyone will buy updated models from the competitors instead.
Parent
McNasty's Law (Score:3, Funny)
"If you're enjoying your work, you're not working hard enough." - Scottish proverb.
Konica-Minolta merger (Score:4, Funny)
Lets face it (Score:4, Insightful)
Another Opinion (Score:5, Interesting)
I strongly prefer development models that are based on incremental releases that ship at regular intervals. Ideally, I prefer systems in which a new version of the product ships one every 4 monthes. Those features/functions that are "ready" get included in a release. Features that aren't ready will be slipped until the next version.
This development process requires MUCH more work to set up. Code needs to be modular enough that features can be added/subtracted from a candidate without destablizing the entire system. Furthermore, there isn't much down time for release engineering. As soon as one release has shipped out the door, the next one is almost ready for testing.
With this said and done: From my perspective, companies that focus on a small number of "Hail Mary" releases produce crappy products. If you only shipping one release every 18 -24 months then EVERYTHING gets shipped with that release, regardless of the quality of the code. Equally significant, your release engineering process inevitably gets very sloppy since the individuals running this never get sufficient practice. Finally, you are inevitably forced to push out large numbers of patches to fix all the crap that contaminated your original version. These patch releases re-introduce most of the same problems that crop up with a "regular" release model, but without the right infrastructure to support this model.
Far better to bite the bullet and design for success from the beginning...
What? You don't own a mobile phone? (Score:4, Informative)
And they all do the same job. Whilst there's no shortage of potentially substantial features to be added, you can count the number of phones that support for example 3G on the fingers of 1 hand. The rest send text-messages, dial and play a game or two.
In truth, nobody needs all those new features. Bluetooth is very handy, and GPRS is nice for data (until 3G comes along), but you can already get all of that in last year's boring businessman-model.
These new models are all basically the same, or rather, based on only a few underlying hardware platforms. Obviously the N-Gage is different from your average teenager's phone or a smartphone, but within each type the variation is both endless and pitifully trivial.
Motorola was a master at this, they even kept older models in production by placing the new hardware with dumbed-down software in the older shell, adding a weight to keep the handset weighing as much as the old model(!).
The same is of course true of Digital Cameras. Each new model only replaces the CCD with a few more megapixels, or adds some software feature, perhaps changes the shell to something less plasticcy looking. The Olympus range is a good example. Or IIRC the Canon 10D which can be made to do almost all of the 1D's tricks, except take more pictures per second (due to RAM speed/amount apparently).
Re:Kinda like JBuilder (Score:4, Insightful)
Parent
Re:cellphones too? (Score:3, Interesting)
If you old Motorola brick was analog (AMPS), then that probably explains it. Your digital cellphone compresses a voice stream into a measly 9600 or 14400 bps. Yeah, its great in a car because the codec also gets rid of noise, but I think overall voice quality stinks and relish the days of AMPS with occasional static. Second, your call is dropped if you hit a