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Nanotech in Microchips by 2015

Posted by CmdrTaco on Thu Dec 29, 2005 02:38 PM
from the i'll-believe-it-when-it-boots dept.
Technology Hardware Science
dotwhynot writes "Molecular electronics, a realm once considered science fiction, could be heading for our computers and devices sooner than thought. A new report on the technology roadmap of the chip industry finds a growing confidence in new nanotechnology, and forecasts that the transition to the post-silicon era could happen by 2015. The development of nanoswitches has already reached a point where it will be possible to manufacture them reliably at low cost. Intels goal over the next decade is to build chips that hold more than one trillion switches."
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Maria Williams writes "KurzweilAI.net reported that: This year's recipients of the Lifeboat Foundation Guardian Award are Robert A. Freitas Jr.and Bill Joy, who have both been proposing solutions to the dangers of advanced technology since 2000. Robert A. Freitas, Jr. has pioneered nanomedicine and analysis of self-replicating nanotechnology. He advocates "an immediate international moratorium, if not outright ban, on all artificial life experiments implemented as nonbiological hardware. In this context, 'artificial life' is defined as autonomous foraging replicators, excluding purely biological implementations (already covered by NIH guidelines tacitly accepted worldwide) and also excluding software simulations which are essential preparatory work and should continue." Bill Joy wrote "Why the future doesn't need us" in Wired in 2000 and with Guardian 2005 Award winner Ray Kurzweil, he wrote the editorial "Recipe for Destruction" in the New York Times (reg. required) in which they argued against publishing the recipe for the 1918 influenza virus. In 2006, he helped launch a $200 million fund directed at developing defenses against biological viruses."
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  • Ipods have Nano Technology (Score:5, Funny)

    by richman555 (675100) on Thursday December 29 2005, @02:40PM (#14360039)
    I thought the ipods already had this technology!

  • That's much later than I thought... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Enigma_Man (756516) on Thursday December 29 2005, @02:42PM (#14360047) Homepage
    Everything seems like it's "nanotech this" "nanotech that" these days... It seems like "nano" stuff in microchips should already be here. Marketspeak = the big let down.

    -Jesse
  • Not that I'm against that - after all, going to the moon must've seemed like an impossible dream to most people in the 50's. A computer able to hold millions of bits of information and able to fit in a single room? Laughable.

    Still, predictions that a nascent and unproven technology will sweep into widespread usage within a decade seems just a bit optimistic. I just hope that I'm wrong.

  • Heat (Score:4, Informative)

    by mysqlrocks (783488) on Thursday December 29 2005, @02:42PM (#14360052) Homepage Journal
    The transition to new nanotechnology techniques could occur around 2015, when chip makers will have exhausted their ability to shrink the wires and switches that make up the modern processors and memory storage devices at the heart of the computer, communications and consumer electronics industries.

    Nevermind the growing heat concern. Who was it that said soon microchips will be hotter than the surface of the sun if they keep getting faster at the same rate they are now?

    • Re:Heat (Score:5, Informative)

      by $RANDOMLUSER (804576) on Thursday December 29 2005, @02:53PM (#14360124)
      > Who was it that said soon microchips will be hotter than the surface of the sun if they keep getting faster at the same rate they are now?

      1) James Clerk Maxwell [wikipedia.org]
      2) Max Plank [wikipedia.org]
      3) Gordon Moore [wikipedia.org]
      4) All of the above ;-)

    • Re:Heat (Score:4, Informative)

      by Ironsides (739422) on Thursday December 29 2005, @02:53PM (#14360126) Homepage Journal
      Nevermind the growing heat concern. Who was it that said soon microchips will be hotter than the surface of the sun if they keep getting faster at the same rate they are now?

      That's assuming that power consumption continues to increase inside the silicon chip. With these switches, using different materials all together, power consumption is supposed to be greatly reduced. What you're doing is similar to comparing a statement made about vacum tubes to transistors.

      • Re:Heat (Score:3, Informative)

        by mysqlrocks (783488)
        What you're doing is similar to comparing a statement made about vacum tubes to transistors.

        Actually no, I was stating one more reason that wasn't previously mentioned as to why this nanotech is needed. You misunderstood my point.

    • Re:Heat (Score:3, Interesting)

      by LionKimbro (200000)
      Computing is going all low-power and parallel. Check out Intel's Platform 2015. [intel.com]

  • That being the case (Score:4, Funny)

    by kpainter (901021) on Thursday December 29 2005, @02:43PM (#14360056)
    Let me be the first to coin the term "picotechnology". I don't know anything about it except that it will be sub-molecular electronics.

  • Shouldn't they be called (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Hooptie (10094) on Thursday December 29 2005, @02:45PM (#14360066) Homepage
    nanochips?

    Hooptie

  • This just in... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by BigDork1001 (683341) on Thursday December 29 2005, @02:45PM (#14360069) Homepage
    ... flying cars by 1990! Also in 2001 we will be sending a mission to Jupiter with a space ship run by a super-intelligent computer.

    I'll believe it when I see it. These tech predictions rarely seem to happen when people think.

  • One of my "life goals" if you wish to call it that, is to get into the engineering and design of circuits/robotics/etc. I've looked at taking some nano-technology classes but right now I don't feel it would be justified compared to learning other important things which will contribute to what I want to do.

    Don't get me wrong, I'd love to take some courses to learn about it, but at my local schools atleast, their programs aren't that great it seems. Any insight about what would be the best way to approach
    • First, learn how to design circuits in general. It won't matter what the underlying technology is after that, you can learn to use any of them. The hard part is learning how to design them in the first place. I took a class on how to design silicon chips my senior year. Give me a new technology and it won't take me long to pick up the new features not that I understand the basics.
      • That's what I thought it'd be like, and to be honest I'm glad it is like that. I guess it makes sense, if you make it to where everyone who's already in the business have to relearn how to design circuits then you have some SERIOUS problems!
        • To help you out, there are three levels of circuit design you would need to learn. The first is the basics. What the NAND, NOR, OR, AND, XOR, and various flip-flops do. That was a sophmore level course in computer/electrical engineering (or CS) at my school. After that, you get into more advanced designs including designing your own microprocessors and such. That level is the most advanced you can learn without being "process specific".

          The last level is the physical level. Currently, this involves l
  • The transition to new nanotechnology techniques could occur around 2015, when chip makers will have exhausted their ability to shrink the wires and switches

    Shrinking the wires can ALREADY be done with carbon nanotubes. Already some of them are being used for heat dissipation in audio chips.

    So, IMHO, it'll be more or less like this:

    1) Carbon nanotubes will replace copper wires in CPU's, disminishing the required operational voltage and current leakage.

    2) "Conventional" technologies used today (like multigate transistors) will be optimized for nanotube wires.

    3) The first nanotube transistors will appear a couple of years after 2) is developed.

    4) As this technology is improved, one day we'll be able to use spintronic or optical transistors.

    Somewhere in the middle of these, 3D-layered chips and massively-parallel computing will be developed. Oh yes, don't forget about the system-in-a-chip.

    A (redudant - read my past posts on the subject) glimpse into the future: In 20 or 30 years our computers will be smaller than a Nintendo gamecube. No floppy disks, just flash (or magnetic?) memory cards and solid-state HDs. PCI bus will be cast into oblivion, when the new add-on cards fit in a PS2 memory stick. Small future, indeed.

    • Re:Expect a transitional phase... (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Jeff DeMaagd (2015) on Thursday December 29 2005, @03:08PM (#14360214) Homepage Journal
      A (redudant - read my past posts on the subject) glimpse into the future: In 20 or 30 years our computers will be smaller than a Nintendo gamecube. No floppy disks, just flash (or magnetic?) memory cards and solid-state HDs. PCI bus will be cast into oblivion, when the new add-on cards fit in a PS2 memory stick. Small future, indeed.

      I predict that a computer smaller than a Nintendo Gamecube will be released into the public conciousness on January 2005 in the form of the Apple Mac mini. They are pretty neat too. I think there are older examples in embedded computers as well as miniITX boards.

      Why predict the use of removable memory cards? Why not also say those are considered offensive because of a global wireless network?

      The only reason full size desktops and midtowers are commonly available is cost, flexibility and performance, not many are willing to trade those off.
    • I don't think it will make sense to even talk about "your computer," in the future, since there will be so goddamn many of them, all over the place, including within your body.

      I think it's likely that they'll have amorphous size, and be divisible and recombinable. I wouldn't speculate on the storage medium. For example, have you heard of "Millipede?" [physorg.com] There are so many data storage options being explored right now, and there's a lot of room for diversity. Looking 20 to 30 years down the line; Who knows what

  • Ugh, you got your (Score:3, Funny)

    by thaerin (937575) on Thursday December 29 2005, @03:00PM (#14360160)
    ... nano in my wafer. You got your wafer in my nano.

    Intels goal over the next decade is to build chips that hold more than one trillion switches.

    Floating point errors performed at the speed of light!
  • we'll have flying cars...

  • "Nanotech in Microchips by 2015" (Score:3, Informative)

    by gregski (765387) on Thursday December 29 2005, @03:07PM (#14360203)
    And there was me thinking that microchips manufactured on the 65nm scale was nanotech.

  • I remember when (Score:3, Insightful)

    by kevinx (790831) on Thursday December 29 2005, @03:08PM (#14360210)
    computers were so big, we'd call them desktops.
  • ...will be then fixed... too bad we have to wait 10 years for this.

  • Your career will be over... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by threaded (89367) on Thursday December 29 2005, @03:46PM (#14360438) Homepage
    Seeing as how short most careers in IT are most of the readers here will have have finished their career in computers by the time this happens.

  • Too small.... (Score:3, Funny)

    by Itninja (937614) on Thursday December 29 2005, @03:55PM (#14360490) Homepage
    As it is now, I 'lose' my Thinkpad (in the couch cushions, under a coffee table book, etc.) about once a week. I'd hate to think of a system that I lose in folds of my flesh.
  • I've always heard that chip design since they went sub-micron in the early 1990s wasone of the first, great examples of nano-technology.
  • So, now when programmers say there are "bugs" in the system, we know they mean nano-bugs; and we can all look forward to nano-viruses that will follow. Get me a can of NANO-RAID, please!

  • Thank you for your submission (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Laaserboy (823319) on Thursday December 29 2005, @04:34PM (#14360744)
    THANK YOU for your submission of a new
    [x] nanostructure
    [ ] laser
    [x] transistor
    using
    [x] large molecules
    [ ] DNA strands
    [ ] silicon
    This is a bad idea, because
    [ ] a 3-D structure is difficult to heat-sink
    [x] scientists likely never will produce a transistor this way
    [x] silicon has unique properties that cannot be matched
    [ ] this is a case of outright fraud
    The problem however is not to make circuits
    [ ] out of lasers
    [ ] 3-D
    [x] from anything but silicon
    [ ] self ordered
    But the problem is to make them
    [x] reliably
    [x] at low cost
    [x] faster
    Further this article was published in
    [ ] Science
    [ ] New Scientist
    [x] NYT
    [ ] Science News
    which is primarily a publicity-seeking instrument, and not a great peer-reviewed journal of physics.
    I can say this because I have a
    [ ] BS
    [ ] MS
    [x] PhD
    in
    [x] Physics
    [ ] Electrical Engineering

    • Re:Still waiting!! (Score:5, Funny)

      by teslar (706653) on Thursday December 29 2005, @03:56PM (#14360500)
      50% of all cars were to fly by 1990.
      According to Flying Car Magazine (1992, vol 12, pp 34-38), the figure of 50% was actually already reached in 1987. Furthermore, the last ground vehicle to be produced was a special 'Grand Finale' edition of the Volkswagen Beetle in 1996. So what are you complaining about?
      Oh.... I get it, you're from the lo-tech enclave set up by our Voryonite Overlords - that small patch of land back on planet Earth where people have been kept oblivious of the arrival of our Lords and left to develop on their own, the aim being to convince even the last sceptic that the arrival of our Lords has been a Good Thing (tm).
      How cute, so you've got internet now. Do you also access it through neuralites or are you still using external equipment? I'm sorry, I'm a little out of touch - I haven't watched the OldWay Feed since I was very little... anyway, must run, a Triunian Starhopper has just docked, I need to fix some of their computer systems. A starport, even a remote one like Venus V, is a great place to be when you're a nerd :)
      See ya! And do drop by once you develop space flights, I'll get you really good deals on antimatter!
    • You can get your car to fly easily.

      Just don't slow down when you see that big dip in the road.

      /the landing is a bit rough, but hey, you wanted to fly.

    • First off, there is exactly 0 reason to switch from QWERT to Dvorak. The only proof that Dvorak is faster is from..oh what was that guys name? hmm oh yeah, Dvorak.

      QWERTY has nothing to do with speed, and everything to do with the letter positioning in the carriage of typewriters.

      Even the alledged speed difference is pretty much moot on any modern computer, for all practical reasons.

      Now, there is hugh motivation to make this technology work. When it does work it will mean faster smaller and cooler computers.
      • Do we, really? We have ECC and selectively disabling sections when we know they don't work, but do we have a scheme where one faulty transistor in the core itself will never affect operation? (Compare to how ECC might promise you no data loss desptie a n-bit error within a word.)

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