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IBM's Five Predictions for the Future
Posted by
samzenpus
on Wed Dec 26, 2007 07:32 PM
from the silicon-ball dept.
from the silicon-ball dept.
StonyandCher writes "IBM has released its second annual set of 'Next Five in Five' predictions. The company's crystal ball also revealed that the long-simmering trend toward "smart energy" devices will proliferate wildly. "Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser," a company statement asserts."
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Submission: IBM dishes five predictions for future by Anonymous Coward
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My first prediction (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:My first prediction (Score:5, Insightful)
Perhaps - if they become commonplace. There (for many years) have been controllable "appliances"... this is just an expansion of something that already existed. With stuff from SmartHome or X10, one could already control lights, AC, heat, security systems (with "back-links" to lights, and other stuff), locks and certain appliances via the web (and of course from home computers and dedicated/semi-dedicated consoles). Dishwashers (washing machines, dryers, etc) are something not yet on the "total control" aspect of such products... but I dont even see a need for that other than the "because I can" factor... why load a dishwasher and then wait to get to work/a friend's to go online to tell it to turn on (again, other than the "because I can" factor)?
Parent
The "Because I Can" factor is powerful (Score:5, Funny)
The dude intently staring at his laptop saying "Here boy, come here!!" draws a lot of attention in a cafe, but it was worth it.
Why bother looking like a freak just to confuse a poor dog? Because I can!
I'm hopeless.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
And there's more to it than that. I've seen more than one appliance meltdown in my day, and I've been glad I've been there to unplug them and take care of the problem. My gi
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
You must be a blessed man. I tried this idea, and not only did she turn out not to be silent (far from it) but the on-going maintenance costs were way beyond what I thought the initial purchase price was going to be.
Even worse, the divorce and replacement costs would be enough to bankrupt me, so I'm stuck with this old model.
Going way past the X10 Concept..... (Score:4, Insightful)
Right now, the power companies predict usage, with little control, with smart energy, they can tune usage much more efficiently.
Storm
Parent
Spam (Score:4, Funny)
Nice house you've got there. Wouldn't it be sad if all the appliances suddenly went wild?
Re: (Score:2)
Red hot toaster ovens, blenders with the tops off, microwave ovens holding themselves wide open? Sign me up.
Powering off automatically (Score:5, Funny)
Mod Parent Up (Score:5, Insightful)
Smart would be if I set a monthly power budget and all my appliances figure out together how to best achieve their jobs within that budget.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Designing a good dishwasher is pretty damn simple, and cellphones are definitely not involved.
1. It should have a button marked "WASH" - that causes the dishes to get washed. That's the whole point of the fucking machine.
2. For extra credit, it can have a button marked "WASH CHEAPLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS" - I can understand that, and might press it before going to work some days.
3. It should have a big hole in the top where I can pour several pounds of dishwashing detergent. When it starts runnin
Re:Powering off automatically (Score:5, Informative)
This is not about controlling your dishwasher through a web browser. That's fucking stupid and everyone in the industry knows it's stupid. Unfortunately, things are dumbed down for the consumer to understand.
This is about automated energy management. Devices need to talk to each other and with the grid in order to be "smart". This allows energy suppliers and users to be able to manage / balance energy usage. But it's more than just energy usage - it's about devices that cooperate with each other. Your occupancy sensor works with the lighting and heating systems to keep people comfortable. They work with ambient light sensors and window blinds to keep the sun out when it is at a bad angle, or let let it in and power off / dim the overhead lights... You can come up with thousands of examples here...
Echelon in San Jose has been developing this technology for many years, as have others. It's secure and reliable. Hell - remote energy management has been desirable / SOP for at LEAST 15 years, where chain stores remote control heating / lighting from corporate headquarters. It's just that power-line network technology has gotten good and inexpensive enough to move into much smaller devices. No, this isn't X-10 crap, it uses 128 bit device ID's and is a full network protocol. I tossed all my X10 crap years ago as it was WAY too unreliable and devices were poor quality. Unfortunately, the good stuff hasn't really made it down to the consumer level yet.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Although "powering down" an appliance doesn't have much utility on the face of it, it could be useful to be able to shut something down or turn it on from your browser when you're away. The common dumb example is to turn heating o
Re:Powering off automatically (Score:4, Informative)
There are also electric models that sit between the washer and the outlet. When it senses a current draw from the washer, it opens the solenoids to allow the water to flow. If the washer is off, the solenoids snap shut. This is safer but of course much more expensive.
Parent
Appliance with N.A.G. Option (Score:4, Funny)
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
The actual article... (Score:5, Informative)
IBM Reveals Five Innovations that Will Change Our Lives Over the Next Five Years
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/22683.wss [ibm.com]
Infrastructure, anyone? (Score:2, Insightful)
Who's going to provide this functionality, for that matter? Will we end up with a dozen mutually incompatible systems, and what happens when we want to upgrade what's already been half installed?
Re: (Score:2)
... or rewire their house (let alone a city grid) for that kind of functionality?
Southern California Edison is already doing this with SmartConnect [sce.com]. They plan on replacing 5 million electric meters between 2009 and 2012.
SCE's new meters will also be able to "talk" through home area networks, providing customers with near real-time energy use and cost information to enable energy conservation. The Edison SmartConnect system has the ability to provide the information from the meter into the home through a two-way wireless interface allowing customers to immediately see how their actions affect usage. The result is expected to increase sustained energy conservation that will reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and smog-forming pollutants by a minimum of 365,000 metric tons per year -- the equivalent of removing 66,000 cars from the road.
Re:Infrastructure, anyone? (Score:4, Funny)
Parent
Re: (Score:3)
Every component smart, but one (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Every component smart, but one (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
Re:Every component smart, but one (Score:4, Insightful)
Parent
Re: (Score:2, Interesting)
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Humans haven't "function[ed] as an independent species" since cavemen first chipped tools out of flint. Technology is what makes us human beings rather than just rather weak, slow, hairless apes.
Five years or decades? (Score:5, Insightful)
Yeah the theoretical technology might exist, but major improvements to the national infrastructure will take decades to implement.
"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid,
Again this require a major improvement to parts of the infrastructure. On top of that, my parents already own all the appliances they want, they will not likely get many new ones anytime in the next five years. Maybe an HDTV.
For example, phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user, IBM said.
Many stores I have been in do not let you photograph the merchandise, if you can suddenly comparison shop the goods in any given store I can only see that policy getting stronger.
This article sounds more like "The World of Tomorrow" than something I would expect out of a respected technology company.
Re:Five years or decades? (Score:4, Funny)
I don't think it'll ever happen, for two possible reasons:
1) Traffic engineers are utterly incompetent, as a rule. (Any traffic engineers reading this? This means YOU! You suck!) I've never seen well-timed lights, in any American city I've lived in or visited, on either side of the continent. It's not that the technology doesn't exist; it does: sensor-based lights are all over the place, which can sense the amount of traffic. But do they put this to good use? Of course not. There actually used to be a time, before "smart lights", when traffic lights were timed in relation to each other, so drivers on a main thoroughfare could travel along at the speed limit, theoretically, and rarely have to stop for cross traffic. Then, they came along and put in "smart lights" so that we'd supposedly never stop for nonexistent cross-traffic, but instead, every time a single car pulls up, it throws off all the traffic on the main road. Again, complete incompetence on the part of the traffic engineers. They should have stuck with a system where the lights were timed in relation to each other, but the presence or absence of traffic on cross-streets merely modified this behavior to be more efficient, by adding or subtracting cycles for the cross-traffic. How hard is that? They've had decades to figure this out, and they haven't.
2) Traffic engineers might not be that bad, but they're implementing stupid rules required by local governments whose real interest is not traffic safety and efficiency, but rather revenue from traffic tickets. This is probably getting much worse due to modern "red-light cameras", which give tickets to drivers running red lights. Many people have noted that many lights, when they had these revenue generators installed, suddenly got MUCH shorter yellow lights, obviously in order to increase revenue. Of course, the traffic engineers are still to blame if they implement this; "I was just following orders" ceased to be an acceptable excuse at the Nuremburg Trials, after all, and since many people die at intersections each year, these engineers aren't just to blame for a lack of efficiency, but actual deaths, which in my view makes them eligible for the death penalty.
Parent
Re:Five years or decades? (Score:4, Funny)
Oh really. Tell me, what do you know about traffic?
Parent
How many computers? (Score:4, Funny)
Flying cars too! (Score:4, Interesting)
1. We'll be able to track produce, and every detail of it of where it's been, etc. - This would require a database and some ID tag (likely RFID) or an Read/Write tag and no database. Currently these are too expensive to have seen widespread use in larger goods, and despite predictions that they're just around the corner, they've been unable to lower the price past a certain point. RFID will happen, but it won't happen this fast.
2. Smart Networks - This requires a significant investment in infrastructure, and it would seem, smart cars. This is something that may start within 5 years, but only cars made past a certain date will actually be 'smart', and until a certain percentage is 'smart' there's not much use for the system (possibly reducing the motivation for investment in the non-car infrastructure, though GPS/Onstar type services may provide enough incentive. Still it won't be here in 5 years.
3. Cell phones - Stupid example. I don't need to know what clothing will look like on me in 3d, and this seems like an application that would be horrible on cell phones, even with advances in computer technology. It MIGHT happen in Asian countries, as they tend to have more advanced cell phones and seem to enjoy odd tech things that don't catch on well in the US (vending machines, etc)
4. Smart Devices are over-rated. Until you can easily access your computer from your cell phone, this won't be down the road 5 years. Yes I'm sure you can do it, but it's not common, certainly not on non-smart phones.
5. Doctors - It'll happen, medicine will advance, but i don't think we'll see any amazing changes. Admittedly I know little about this field, but I haven't heard anything huge inventions lately that will revolutionize the field.
Last Year's Five in Five (Score:4, Informative)
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/five_in_five/010807/index.shtml [ibm.com]
Sensational yet Possible (Score:2)
oh please... (Score:5, Insightful)
somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser.
the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly. possibly the only interaction I would want is a little minimalist chime to alert me that the cycle or current operation has finished and some human interaction is needed.
*everything* else should work behind the scenes to my benefit to save power or alert me when the washing powder is running low.
interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
most of my other kitchen appliances have a light that illuminates the interior when the door is open and i'd like one for my dishwasher too, kthxbai.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...
Unfortunately, that dark day is basically here. [lge.com] We can be a pretty absurd species, that's for sure. What we really need are Bluetooth enabled underwear, then they could let our cellphones know when we sh*t ourselves. Or maybe scissors with routers, that would also be nice.
Energy will be the next issue (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't think there will be that much interest in smart appliances like they describe. I think this is a technological path to consider, but it will be over ruled by the fact that we, as a planet, are running out of per capita energy.
We may be able to create a lot of energy, but the per capita demand worldwide is growing such that Americans (who consume more energy per capita) will experience a severe energy shortage and as such, the focus will not be on more appliances that are smart and therefore have a passive load on the household grid, but focus on appliances that actually stop using all electricity when you turn them off. Many don't these days because of the hot start design features.
For the rest of this decade the US will experience energy shortages in terms of higher gasoline prices, higher heating gas prices, and higher electricity prices (and summer shortages). This will force us to reconsider a lot of the appliances that we already have and re-prioritize what we want in future appliances.
Reminds me of Thomas Watson's prediction... (Score:2, Funny)
Thomas Watson probably never made that prediction (Score:3, Interesting)
RFC 3251 (Score:3, Funny)
Anybody wanting to develop a smart electricity grid should take a look at that document, includes lots of information about hazardous voltage drops and other pitfalls that can be avoided.
Spanking New Technology (Score:4, Funny)
Re: (Score:2)
Ok, actually you do.
WHY?? (Score:4, Insightful)
If I am out...why in the hell do I want to take time to manage all my household appliances? I am 'out' for a reason. Presumably to have fun. Other than that, I am at home or work.
Heat and A/C? Nope, sorry. Either maintain a constant temp, or follow the damn program I already gave you.
Dishwasher? Oh please. If it's full enough, I'll start it now. Empty it whenever. Or maybe I'll start it just before I go to bed.
House lights? Again...follow the (individual) timers, or just stay off. Simple, cheap, pretty foolproof.
What possibly would I need to change settings on if I am 'out'. About the only thing I can think of that I might want to alter is the TiVo settings. Which I can do already. And that is (for me) a non issue. In two(three?) years, I haven't found a need to do it once.
No, this is good... (Score:3, Interesting)
Riiight (Score:4, Insightful)
Will producers make such information available? It shouldn't take a genius to answer this question.
Yeah, right - and where's my flying car? (Score:3, Insightful)
he company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly, drive down pollution and get you to your destination easier, "without the stress."
This will be accomplished through "intelligent" traffic systems that automatically adjust light patterns and shift traffic to alternative routes, as well as cars that exhibit "reflexes" thanks to communication with other vehicles and roadside sensors, according to IBM.
Utter and catastrophic bullshit. Those features MIGHT be available in 5 years, but the stupid bint up the street who just bought tha gas guzzling Caddilac SUV is NOT going to be getting one in five years. She will likely still be driving the gas guzzling POS Caddy. And I will DEFINITELY still be driving my Prius. And my brother is going tobe buying a new car next year, and it will likely be a used Ford. He ALWAYS buys used Fords.
Essentially, for that technology to have ANY penetration in 5 years, it needs to have been made available last year or the year before. It takes an average of 10 years to replace 75% of the car fleet. This does NOT bode well given the petroleum situation....
RS
The future of the past (Score:3, Insightful)
I predict they will remain in the prediction lists for the next 20 years.
We'd do better to have smart electrical sockets (Score:3, Informative)
one species+significant (Score:2)