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The Final CES Keynote From Bill Gates

Posted by Zonk on Mon Jan 07, 2008 08:12 AM
from the won't-be-the-same-without-him dept.
Microsoft XBox (Games) Technology Entertainment
Sunday evening saw the final CES keynote delivered by Bill Gates in his current role with the Microsoft corporation. Speculation about big announcements generally seemed to be for naught, as his last address at the show focused more on broad concepts than blockbuster news. "Gates outlined three major themes for the second digital decade-high definition displays with 3D experiences and high quality video and audio, connected services and the power of natural interfaces. Gates had a vision early of those themes, but his quest to make the Tablet PC, Media Center PCs and natural interfaces, such as speech and touch, more mainstream has not been realized." A full description of the talk, including his Guitar Hero finale with Slash, is available in Engadget's liveblog of the event.
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[+] Games: Gates May Announce Xbox 360 DVR At CES 117 comments
Via Kotaku, an article at the Seattle Times offers an interesting theory on what might be an important part of Bill Gates' keynote at CES next week. According to Times writer Brier Dudley, upgrades and licensing for the Xbox 360 could be a big new feather in Microsoft's cap: "I've speculated on my blog that Microsoft may be preparing to license the Xbox gaming platform to consumer-electronics companies. In particular, Microsoft could work with Toshiba to develop a digital video recorder with a hard-drive, high-definition HD-DVD drive and Xbox gaming capabilities. They're already allied against Sony and other backers of the Blu-ray DVD format, and Toshiba could help Xbox finally penetrate the Japanese market." Toshiba has repeatedly denied the possibility of a 360 unit with a built-in HD-DVD drive, it should be noted.
[+] Games: Hints at the Future of the Xbox 360 Emerge 105 comments
CES has brought out quite a bit of news, for subjects across the tech industry. The future of the Xbox 360 seems to a subject Microsoft can't talk enough about. Gates' keynote touched on new media partnerships for Live Marketplace, like the collaboration with Disney/ABC. A post-keynote email to several games writers noted that 2008 will be the company's year to capitalize on strong hardware and software sales from the holiday season, and that several as-yet-unannounced exclusive 360 titles are in the works. Fans of the platform might still have some anxiety this year; a rumour on the 1up site indicates Microsoft is already working on a game for the next-next-gen console to bear the Xbox name.
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  • Silverlight? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 07 2008, @08:16AM (#21941158)
    What the fuck is Silverlight and why do I have to download yet another plugin to see the CES page? Hasn't Microsoft ever heard of Flash?
    • Silverlight is Microsoft's answer to Flash, more or less. It's supposed to make Web applications more GUI-like and introduce fancy things like 3D graphics and advanced user interfaces to Web applications.

      Microsoft's heard of Flash, I'm sure, but I'm also sure they prefer their own in-house developed stuff to anything coming out of a competitor.

      • Re:Silverlight? (Score:4, Insightful)

        by AndGodSed (968378) on Monday January 07 2008, @08:34AM (#21941294) Homepage Journal
        Yep. It's their business model.

        Create your own, force it on your customers. Of course they would prefer that their tech become commonplace, besides, flash is mainstream on Linux too, so if they can find a way to lock Linux out by making an alternative they delay Linux growth in market share.
        • Microsoft has made the spec relatively open and it's being implemented by Miguel de Icaza [tirania.org] & Co. as part of the Mono project.

          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by tgd (2822)
            Worth also mentioning that its not only open and being implemented as part of Mono, its being directly supported by MS and the Silverlight team.

          • Re:Silverlight? (Score:5, Insightful)

            by EvilRyry (1025309) on Monday January 07 2008, @10:27AM (#21942228) Journal

            As siblings have mentioned, Moonlight will likely always be a few steps behind silverlight. Also, there's no guarantee the spec will remain open in the future (see SMB, IE for Mac/UNIX for more info).

            More importantly, Moonlight will never be truly Free. Take a look at the audio/video formats it supports. VC-1... sure great for video, also have the option of WMV which I have a feeling will be quite popular. Audio - WMA or MP3. From Miguel de Icaza's web log [tirania.org]

            Microsoft will make the codecs for video and audio available to users of Moonlight from their web site. The codecs will be binary codecs, and they will only be licensed for use with Moonlight on a web browser

            Sure these formats have been/will be reverse engineered, but with DRM out there in the world it will make decoding DRMed media with open source codecs illegal! So much for free!

            This doesn't make Flash any better, I'm just saying that people who proclaim that Silverlight is great because it will have a real open source implementation aren't telling or don't know the whole story.

            • Re:Silverlight? (Score:4, Insightful)

              by Just Some Guy (3352) <kirk+slashdot@strauser.com> on Monday January 07 2008, @12:06PM (#21943376) Homepage Journal

              Microsoft will make the codecs for video and audio available to users of Moonlight from their web site. The codecs will be binary codecs, and they will only be licensed for use with Moonlight on a web browser

              Sure these formats have been/will be reverse engineered, but with DRM out there in the world it will make decoding DRMed media with open source codecs illegal! So much for free!

              Not to mention that the codecs will only run on IA32 or whatever other platform MS chooses to grace with their presence, and explicitly will be useless for anything outside the web.

          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by caluml (551744)
            Explain to me why anybody on a non-Microsoft platform would want to run .NET (which from what I can tell is pretty much a direct Java copy) via Mono? IANAD(eveloper).
            Java already exists, is open, tested, and runs on lots of stuff.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by tgd (2822)
        Not really... they serve similar goals, but its really MS's way of getting the (MUCH more powerful) .NET development environment in the hands of rich client content web developers.

        The uptake is slow, but IMO its really a better technology than Flash. It gives far better language tools to the programmers and provides much better separation of design, interface and code where doing larger projects with bigger teams will be easier.

        Silverlight 1.0 was very flash-like -- the framework wasn't fully fleshed out as

        • Exactly (Score:5, Insightful)

          by encoderer (1060616) on Monday January 07 2008, @10:06AM (#21942032)
          Uptake has been slow, but when you're Microsoft, you can afford a slow adoption rate. Especially for a technology like this. Microsoft sees the writing on the wall. This is going to be a major component of their web strategy, I'm sure.

          And when it comes down to it, this is just plainly a better technology than Flash. The only advantage flash has is it's adoption rate and mind-share. Eventually these will be neutralized.

          The newest version of ActionScript is a HUGE improvement upon its predecessors. It truly is. But when it comes to building full-featured web apps that look and act like native rich-client apps, it's still nearly as hard to do that with AS in Flash as it is to do it with JS/Ajax/HTML.

          But with silverlight 1.1 you get the ability to use any CLR-based language-- C#, C++.Net, J#, Python.Net, Ruby.Net, TCL.Net, VB.Net, etc etc. You also get the advantage of the largest framework ever shipped with a language (.Net, of course) and the huge amount of existing code. Not to mention, if you've already got an app -- web based or rich client -- written in .Net, you can port it to silverlight without a terrible amount of work. ESPECIALLY if it was designed using an MVC pattern (or, at least, a 2-tiered approach that would allow you to reuse the model & controller code).

          I'm really not a big Microsoft fan. I've spent most the last year developing with PHP on a LAMP stack. But if I was asked to build a large web based app with a rich-client feel and given the choice of Flash and Silverlight, not having ever tried either, I'd feel a lot better about the latter than I do the former.

          I'm not knocking flash. It's just that flash wasn't really designed to build large apps. It's just been manipulated into that in the past couple years. Silverlight, OTOH, was designed precisely for this reason.

          • Re:Exactly (Score:5, Insightful)

            by Lodragandraoidh (639696) on Monday January 07 2008, @10:55AM (#21942484) Journal
            This looks great...until they break compatibility in some clever way to marginalize some segment.

            Its not about the tool itself; it is about what the Microsoft management/lawyers will do with it to negate their competition. They've done it before, many times. They've been convicted in an antitrust case, dragging it out long enough for a sympathetic administration to bail them out of hot water. They will do it again.

            Microsoft tools are snake oil.
          • No, I have. Its still not the same thing.

            Imagine the difference, if it helps, between Javascript and Java. The difference is that significant between what any of the Flash environments will do and a real language and framework for building real enterprise applications -- basically you probably COULD do it, but you're going to be hating life as the project grows bigger.

            • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

              by Khuffie (818093)
              Even though you've heard of Flex, you don't seem to be that familiar with it. Flex is getting quite close to Java in terms of programming methods and it's framework is pretty solid. In fact, where I work, whenever we need to hire someone we just look at Java developers and they're up and running in no time. And I've found I've been able to look at Java myself even though I've never had much experience with it. And yes, we do build a real enterprise level application.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by hackstraw (262471)
        Silverlight is Microsoft's answer to Flash, more or less. It's supposed to make Web applications more GUI-like and introduce fancy things like 3D graphics and advanced user interfaces to Web applications.

        Wasn't that Java's goals like 10 years ago?

    • I'm at work. Will I get fired for downloading Silverlight? Don't take this as a troll/flame/whatever, but do we really need another Microsoft imposed Standard, when there are already decent standards in place? I guess I'll never know what this story is about.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by jackharrer (972403)
        Actually as much as I don't like Msft, I think Silverlight is good. It makes Adobe to update Flash, it promotes competition and stops the stagnation that's been around for a long time. MPEG4 for Flash anybody? Why does it took so long to implement it? There was no need for Adobe to do it?

        Offtopic: Anybody's curious when Msft is going to buy Novell and Suse with it? So much Msft cash is going into Mono and similar projects sponsored by Novell...
      • Which particular "Decent Standard" would that be? SVG isn't really ready to take on Flash, and Flash itself is more or less undocumented outside Adobe, so the only application that will edit Flash reliably is... Flash.
    • Hasn't Microsoft ever heard of Flash?

      Yes, and they're trying to kill it.

  • Holodecks! (Score:3, Funny)

    by AndGodSed (968378) on Monday January 07 2008, @08:20AM (#21941186) Homepage Journal
    The way games are getting better visual wise, and tech is getting more powerful, I have a feeling we might see at least an early version of a Holodeck in our lifetimes.

    Now I ALSO hope that by that time Linux will be the OS of choice for the manufacturer, I simply will not survive a BSOD in glorious Holodeck VR...

  • Gates on Tablet PCs (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 07 2008, @08:34AM (#21941292)
    "The Tablet takes cutting-edge PC technology and makes it available wherever you want it, which is why I'm already using a Tablet as my everyday computer. It's a PC that is virtually without limits -- and within five years I predict it will be the most popular form of PC sold in America." - Gates at COMDEX 2001

    And unlike the 640K story, there's an actual source [microsoft.com] for this quote.
  • that video made me want to puke, what a geek! oh wait nvm....

  • Xbox 360 Ultimate (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Rik Sweeney (471717) on Monday January 07 2008, @08:53AM (#21941418) Homepage
    Well, it was supposed to be the Xbox 360 Ultimate, but after what happened over the weekend it's now being used to prop open a door.

  • Video of fun part (Score:4, Funny)

    by raffe (28595) * on Monday January 07 2008, @08:56AM (#21941438) Journal
    clip of bill gs last day at the office [youtube.com]

  • The problem might be too much too soon (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Kupfernigk (1190345) on Monday January 07 2008, @08:57AM (#21941446)
    Those things never became mainstream because Microsoft was always trying to introduce them before either the hardware or the software were ready. They thought that people would accept something that actually did not work very well because their engineers thought it would be compelling.

    Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that. Disruptive technologies gain traction fast when they have a compelling advantage and a short learning curve.

    For instance, cannon were a disruptive technology but had a very long learning curve, maybe hundreds of years. Railways, on the other hand, had a compelling advantage in speed and capacity, but had a relatively short learning curve because on the one hand there was a huge body of canal building knowledge to draw on when building railways, and on the other the user interface (buy ticket, get on train) was dirt simple. So railways spread rather fast.

    None of the ideas Microsoft have touted have had either a compelling advantage or a short learning curve. Speech input is simply less effective, for many reasons, than learning to type. Lugging around a tablet PC does not result in productivity gains for most people. And, as anyone who has ever tried to design a rule based decision support system knows, anything involving natural interfaces is simply very hard to do indeed, and the payback is rarely there except in a few niche markets.

    I believe that the reason for this is that many large corporations have simply forgotten who their customers are. Google will find it hard to do this because there is no lock-in, and their customers have no loyalty. They must listen to their two classes of customers - sellers and end users - or die. Microsoft doesn't seem, any more, to know whether its customers are the recording industry, computer manufacturers, CIOs or, a poor fourth, the actual end users of their computers. Apple could fall into the same trap, but at the moment (at least with personal computers) seems to have its eye on the ball.

    Microsoft is huge, bigger in revenue than IBM, and enormously rich. It is impossible to second guess them, and shorting their stock would be foolish. But anyone who has followed the trajectory, in recent years, of (say) Ford versus Toyota and Porsche, would have to agree that being very large is no guarantee of continuing success.

    • MS has never really been about innovation so much as implementation. Their products have never been groundbreaking, but they are able to market them over the long haul very well. They know how to slowly nibble their way into markets thought impenetrable (like the browser market, once completely dominated by Netscape, and the game console market, once completely dominated by Sony). None of their ideas are particularly original, but they know how to mass produce them and get them into people's homes as well a

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by YeeHaW_Jelte (451855)
      "Microsoft is huge, bigger in revenue than IBM, and enormously rich. It is impossible to second guess them, and shorting their stock would be foolish. But anyone who has followed the trajectory, in recent years, of (say) Ford versus Toyota and Porsche, would have to agree that being very large is no guarantee of continuing success."

      I'm not sure what you mean with that last example, but it seems you are missing a fact here: Toyota is the largest car manufactorer bar GM, and is set to surpass GM in years or m

    • Re:The problem might be too much too soon (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Warbothong (905464) on Monday January 07 2008, @10:16AM (#21942138) Homepage
      Touch screens work on the iPhone because users are going to be doing the same thing anyway if the buttons were physical. Using touch technology exclusively on large areas has been around for years and years, and it is proven to be tiresome (the whole 'gorilla arms' thing). Moving images of photos around on a coffee table? Possibly, but organising a photo collection on such a huge screen by stretching around to touch the things I want? No thanks, I'd prefer a mouse because it's less effort. Use touch-based input for things not possible with other technology, or when people would be doing the same kind of thing anyway (like pressing buttons on a 'phone's keypad or a computer's keyboard), not because it is "natural" (walking is natural, but the wheel is one of the best discoveries yet made). Microsoft's dug themselves quite a firmly entrenched computing world BTW, so getting any significant numbers of people away from generic x86 + Windows XP + VisualBasic + generic USB mouse will be difficult unless they come up with something more impressive than specifying expensive customisation of items via a fingerpainting-accurate interface. In my opinion, if touchscreens were the only kind of pointing device people had thought of up until now then there would be a company like Microsoft doing exactly the same flashy (sorry, Silverlighty) demos as they are now, but replacing "new touch technology" with "new mouse technology" and replacing "natural" with "efficient".

  • Bye-bye Billy... (Score:3, Funny)

    by ceeam (39911) on Monday January 07 2008, @09:04AM (#21941494)
    ... your predictions always sucked and they do now. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. Oh, and thanks for nothing!
    • Before you blast the man, think long and hard about the fact that he is the first billionaire to ever publically give away his entire fortune to real charity (that's right, he's not even giving his own kids anything). That's way more than any of the geek "heroes" like Steve Jobs have done or will ever do for humanity.

      It's easy to bad-mouth his business practices, it's easy to bad-mouth his products. But I can't bad-mouth the man himself. He's way more charitable than I would be in the same circumstance.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by dc29A (636871) *

        Before you blast the man, think long and hard about the fact that he is the first billionaire to ever publically give away his entire fortune to real charity (that's right, he's not even giving his own kids anything). That's way more than any of the geek "heroes" like Steve Jobs have done or will ever do for humanity.

        It's easy to bad-mouth his business practices, it's easy to bad-mouth his products. But I can't bad-mouth the man himself. He's way more charitable than I would be in the same circumstance.

        Did he earn his vast fortune in an ethical, and in some cases legal way?

        No.

        MS is a convicted monopolist on 3 continents. MS used every possible strong arm tactic to cram their shitty OS down on everyone's throat. It's very easy to bad mouth the man himself when he earned most of his fortune by screwing others.

        And I won't even mention BillG's "stellar" predictions. Now let me go back and continue work on my Tablet PC because it's more productive ... oh wait ...

  • Give Bill a break (Score:5, Insightful)

    by GuyfromTrinidad (1074909) on Monday January 07 2008, @09:26AM (#21941676)
    I think we need to cut Bill some slack as he rides off into the sunset. No one can dispute the impact that Microsoft and Gates has had on the world of computers and technology in general. I get it, for many of you "Microsoft is Evil" but let us use this opportunity to acknowledge what Bill has done for Tech, especially now that he is going to be focusing more on his humanitarian work. So from me, Thanks Bill and good luck.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by jejones (115979)
      >...let us use this opportunity to acknowledge what Bill has done for Tech, especially now that he is going to be focusing more on his humanitarian work.

      From the Wikipedia article on Al Capone:

      "Capone often tried to whitewash his image and be seen as a community leader. For example, he started a program, which was continued for decades after his death, to fight rickets by providing a daily milk ration to Chicago school children. Also during the Great Depression, Capone opened up many soup kitchens for th

    • Re:Give Bill a break (Score:5, Insightful)

      by paxgaea (219419) on Monday January 07 2008, @09:46AM (#21941864)
      I think some of us pine for what could have been, not the mediocrity that we ended up with as we grew into our technological world (speaking as someone in his early 30's, growing up in the Atari age).

      The negative effect that monopolistic actions have had in stifling innovation has been extremely unfortunate, even if in some ways we don't even realize how unfortunate.

      Also, while I give him credit for what he has been doing lately, as far as I remember, Bill Gates was late to the humanitarian game too. I seem to remember him having to have external pressure applied to get going on that.

      Like many, he has (and will have) a mixed legacy.

  • Gates is a visionary (Score:5, Insightful)

    by QuietLagoon (813062) on Monday January 07 2008, @09:30AM (#21941720)
    who missed the emergence of the Internet for consumers. He had to go back and add the Internet to his The Road Ahead book after the fact. He had to go back and add Internet support to his operating system after the fact.

    This is the visionary who missed the digital media revolution, requiring burst.com and Apple to show him how to do it. In the past ten years of the digital media revolution, which stock price appreciated more, Microsoft's or Apple's?

    Is Gates a visionary, or a monopolist? Gates' image and PR people want him to be viewed as the former. History will record him as the latter.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by King_TJ (85913)
      I'd say Gates was *neither*. He was a shrewd businessman who was able to recognize an opportunity and run with it, back in the 80's - and it paid off for him in spades.

      The cries about him being a "monopolist" are somewhat misplaced, IMHO. Show me ANY C.E.O. of a successful, global business today who wouldn't want his/her company to achieve a similar market-share, if they could only figure out a way to do it! Yes, Microsoft made some questionable business deals, but again, I'd say that's "par for the cour

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by DAldredge (2353)
      If you believe this put your money where your mouth is and short MSFT.

    • Gates knows he can't win. Vista is a huge flop and could spell the end of Microsoft's dominance.
      You're right, it could. Hell anything could happen with the software market like it is these days. Truth is that Vista's first year adoption rate are pretty much better than XP's [zdnet.com]. So why didn't he step down when XP was coming out?

      I hate Microsoft too but it's the natural succession of leadership, Gates is past his prime. His company is not (has it ever had 'a prime'?). I don't think he's stepping down from lack of success, I think he's stepping down because maybe he realized what horrid things a leader with that much power (inadvertently) has to do.

      And that's fine with me because Ballmer is one easy man to hate. Just redirect everything to him. Gates is rich but that doesn't make him any more despicable than Rockefeller, Hughes or Warren Buffett. At least he's trying to help other countries in the world. I think Gates has generally had good intentions with bad consequences for many members of the tech community. Whether it's for family, boredom or health reasons, he's certainly not stepping down because Microsoft is losing this game.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Nullav (1053766)

      Netcraft confirms it!

      But seriously, MS has too much money jammed up its collective ass and too many branches for the loss of a monopoly in the OS market to kill it outright. They still make wonderful peripherals, the RedRing 360, and their research division must bring in plenty, thanks to patent licensing. Oh, and don't forget that many are just snapping up XP if they don't like Vista; it's still another dollar for MS.
      Who knows, maybe MS would take another look at Windows if sales started plummeting.

    • Re:Is it any wonder Gates is stepping down? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by stewbacca (1033764) on Monday January 07 2008, @08:51AM (#21941402)
      Ahh, but the genius of it all... In 10 years, people will point to Bill G. stepping down as the cause of the MS implosion, completely forgetting about the Vista flop. Or the MS apologists will just cry "Perfect Storm" with the rise of OSX and Linux alternatives over the next several years.

      • We've "read it on Slashdot" every year for the past 10. Just like "Linux on the desktop THIS year," it isn't happening any time soon.
        Yeah, but you've never heard it before from an individual who predicted Microsoft's dominance before it ever happened. I've been watching the industry for over 20 years now.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by SerpentMage (13390)
        No kidding... It is actually getting a bit tedious...

        Linux on the server? Yeah I can see that...
        Linux on the desktop? Nope not a chance... That moment passed.

        Think about it... Vista took how long? And Vista is selling how much? And still people are saying "this is the year of Linux on the desktop." BUT... What has been gaining traction? OSX...

        This says one thing. I want a desktop that works and lets me get my work done and I don't care if it costs.

        • And still people are saying "this is the year of Linux on the desktop."

          FWIW, this (2007)was the year when I first put Linux on my desktop. After a horrific experience with Vista, I installed Ubuntu Studio and it's been smooth sailing so far. My daughter, who is not a techie, prefers that machine over all my others. She gave me a lecture about how Linux is "safer from viruses and DRM" and I did a double-take. I wonder who she's been talking to.

          If it's any of you guys, hands off.

          • 2007 was also the Year of Linux for me too! Earlier attempts had been too difficult to install Linux, this time it was easier then XP.
      • Ballmer has proven to be a big mouthed dead weight, Bill might want to go but he is stuck, Ballmer would be the death of any company if he was left solely in charge and running on bull shit and ego. Vista and office2007, xbox360 (poor build engineering) really do have the ballmer mark of failure on them.
    • I worked with a guy who had that book. Is it the one with a CD that wouldn't work in Windows NT?
    • Awesome book. My mom got it for me because it's a computer book, after all, and she knew I somewhat disliked Gates. I love the part where he invents the Mac. Great stuff.

    • Blind Squirrel Seeking Nut (Score:4, Interesting)

      by ackthpt (218170) on Monday January 07 2008, @12:43PM (#21943830) Homepage Journal

      Just like with The Road Ahead Bill Gates will soon bring out a second edition of the video recording of the keynote, where he'll use state-of-the-art video-editing wizardry to make it look like he had predicted this year's tech trends all along.

      I had the fortune to catch Bill doing a CES Key-Note address a few years back. It's pretty funny to see how he continues to get it wrong and they continue to have him do Key-Note addresses.

      As a company, Microsoft is not terribly good at being visionary. Their track record is a line of failed attempts to push their technology, which should be hooking every household into a Microsoft world. Where they fail is understanding most of these items consumers buy, use for a while and then toss, without ever getting fully hooked in. Windows CE was to be in everything from CD players to Bookreading tablets, but we're seeing Linux, java, etc. thriving. Clearly there's some reason why not every Consumer Electronics company has not jumped on the Windows bandwagon - they better than I know their reasons, I only observe the results.

      The last time I heard Bill talk he seemed, perhaps unwittingingly, to be threatening about half the companies at CES with muscling them into a Mafia-esque grip of their technology and vision for the future.

      Once you realise most of it is utter bollox, just sit back and wait for him to flub words or his on-stage demo to crash.

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