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LAN Turns 30, May Not See 40?

Posted by Zonk on Thu Jan 31, 2008 03:18 PM
from the getting-senile dept.
dratcw writes "The first commercial LAN was based on ARCnet technology and was installed some 30 years ago, according to a ComputerWorld article. Bob Metcalfe, one of the co-inventors of Ethernet, recalls the early battles between the different flavors of LAN and says some claims from the Token Ring backers such as IBM were lies. 'I know that sounds nasty, but for 10 years I had to put up with that crap from the IBM Token Ring people — you bet I'm bitter.' Besides dipping into networking nostalgia, the article also quotes an analyst who says the LAN may be nearing its demise and predicts that all machines will be individually connected to one huge WAN at gigabit speeds. Could the LAN actually be nearing the end of its lifecycle?"
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[+] Your Rights Online: FTC Defends Ethernet From Patent Troll 59 comments
I Don't Believe in Imaginary Property writes "The FTC has put a stop to Negotiated Data Solutions, a patent troll that bought a patent on an important part of the Ethernet networking standard and tried to jack up the royalties for licensing it. In a consent decree (pdf), N-Data agreed to continue licensing the patent at the formerly promised rates. 'Whatever the merits of the decision, it shows that the FTC sees the value of standards and will be on the lookout for any behavior that could undermine these standards-setting process. That alone could keep companies honest when they enter the standards process. Standards-setting bodies have also become more sophisticated over the years (after being burned in several high-profile cases), and now do a better job at forcing involved companies to disclose and license patents.' The IEEE voted back in 2002 to make patent letters irrevocable, which could have prevented this, but neglected to make that clause retroactive."
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  • Well, could it? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Pharmboy (216950) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:20PM (#22251380) Journal
    Could the LAN actually be nearing the end of its lifecycle?

    Yes. All computers in the future will be stand alone and the Interweb will be shut down.

    Somewhat interesting article, stupid summary question.
    • Re:Well, could it? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by dosh8er (608167) <{moc.liamg} {ta} {oamayo}> on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:33PM (#22251690) Homepage Journal
      I used to have a thinnet rg-6 network back in school (10base2)... 2.5MIPS max. Plus you HAD to have a 75ohm terminator on any unused end. Never touched token ring... and from what I hear, a pain! All things considered, the CAT5 spec has been pushed quite a ways, even in the roll-out of CAT6e. These are the types of people that the industry needs. Individuals that can push what we have to the limit (hrmmm... let's twist the wires and then shield them for better resistance against cross-talk, thus improving bandwidth!) I applaud our existing Ethernet Overlords, and welcome the new age of Fiber!

      Seriously, that must be the next thing, since copper, or any conductor, has its limitations.. (speed of the electrons, eddy currents, all that fun science...) With the advent of stopping light, quantum computing (vaporware?) fiber must be next... mmmm... everbody needs a little fiber in their diet!
      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        You should have been using RG-58 and 50 ohm terminators... things work much better with the right equipment.
    • Anyone who thinks that wireless everything is the wave of the future has never considered the simple phrase "electromagnetic interference."

      Imagine you and your closest 35 neighbors in an apartment complex, all wanted to use one of the 11 available 802.11 channels for your routers... at once...
      • by markov_chain (202465) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:42PM (#22251860) Homepage
        It doesn't work that way, it's more like a game of chicken-- one guy gets a router first, and then everyone else hops on. First hand experience here :)
      • Re:WAN, SCHMAN (Score:5, Interesting)

        by timeOday (582209) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:50PM (#22252030)
        Imagine if all the people in your apartment had cellphones... Oh, of course they do. And they've all had wireless home phones for 15 years before that. Transponder density doesn't have to be a problem for wireless, it just means you need smarter transponders, and you get to use less power.

        Whatever the limitations of 802.11 may or may not currently be, that doesn't mean much about the long-term prospects of wireless. 10 years ago I would have thought reclaiming the analog TV spectrum would be impossible, now it's happening before our eyes. Outside of a post-nuclear attack scenario, I can't think of any reason to say wireless is inherently unreliable.

          • Re:WAN, SCHMAN (Score:5, Insightful)

            by snowraver1 (1052510) on Thursday January 31 2008, @05:22PM (#22253830)
            I think that the author is suggesting that each device will have it's own address (IPv6) and will be connected to the internet directly (possibly VIA shared modem, but with unique addresses). Sure you might only have one pipe coming into your house, but each device has a direct connection to the internet.

            That being said, I completely disagree with the author. There is no way that companies want to put all thier servers (not to mention clients) directly on the Internet. Firewalls will always exist for security reasons, and thus so will LANs.
            • Re:WAN, SCHMAN (Score:4, Informative)

              by ThinkingInBinary (899485) <thinkinginbinary AT gmail DOT com> on Thursday January 31 2008, @05:58PM (#22254494) Homepage

              That being said, I completely disagree with the author. There is no way that companies want to put all thier servers (not to mention clients) directly on the Internet. Firewalls will always exist for security reasons, and thus so will LANs.

              Well, there is a middle ground. Most of the "security" from firewalls today comes from the fact that a public IP will have just a handful of ports forwarded to an internal box, and the services on the box will be listening on the LAN IP. Basically, NAT of various sorts protected everything by default, and you forwarded what you want. Once IPv6 becomes widespread, firewalls will simply restrict the data going in and out, rather than redirecting it to different IPs and/or ports. There will still be home routers/firewalls, but (hopefully) all the boxen behind them won't hide behind their (the routers') addresses.

              • Re:WAN, SCHMAN (Score:4, Insightful)

                by sumdumass (711423) on Thursday January 31 2008, @11:15PM (#22257592) Journal
                One of the problems with placing firewalls directly on the devices instead of in a router or something somewhere is that defect in the devices aren't apparent until after they have been successfully exploited. More public Internet addresses means more problems in the end. Your actually doing yourself a favor by hiding hardware that doesn't need to be directly accessible from the internet in a subnet behind another device. There has been more then one virus that effected/infected the OS or services running on the OS that a simple router would have mitigated.

                I don't expect problems like that to go away anytime within the next 10 years. I can see the effects and probabilities mitigated but not removed. A software firewall hasn't always been the best approach either. Sometimes it would crash the system, in situations like with symantec, the firewall itself could be exploited, and so on. Imagine if everyone did a flood attack or actually had a back door into your devices for years/months before it was noticed and patched.
            • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

              Firewalls will always exist for security reasons, and thus so will LANs

              A firewall does not require NAT to be secure.
              You can have a firewall in the router with public IP addresses on both sides and it will still work just fine.
              • It does help to keep the bad guys guessing about your layout. Do you have 1 desktop, or a 100 servers? With NAT, they don't know. Makes a difference when deciding where to attack.
          • by DrYak (748999) on Thursday January 31 2008, @05:45PM (#22254262) Homepage

            Does my TiVo really need a direct connection to the internet, even a firewalled one?


            Yes, of course ! How do you think that they'll enforce even more stupid forms of DRM (that will force RMS to counter writing even more complex versions of GPL) ?

            And how do you think that de government will spy on you, using the RFID tag reader in your fridge and fine you if you don't buy the mandatory 10% corn-based products required by some law that some lobby pushed ?

            In 10 years, even tinfoil hats will be network-enabled.

              • Re:WAN, SCHMAN (Score:4, Insightful)

                by Dun Malg (230075) on Thursday January 31 2008, @08:19PM (#22256294) Homepage

                ...I seriously question the authors assumption that LANs as we know them will cease to exist.
                Indeed, this is often the problem with "visionaries". They have no real sense for the reality of the situation. It's like the quote supposedly from Steve Jobs at the private Segway unveiling: "Cities of the future will be built around this". This is a classic "visionary" statement. The same exact thing from a realistic (i.e. engineer's) point of view is: "Cities would have to be rebuilt before this thing would be particularly useful".

                With regard to networks, it's basically inarguable that the many network-enabled devices in people's homes will be sharing a single pipe from an ISP. It is also essentially inarguable that (for the foreseeable future) Ethernet will remain the common hard-wire standard for network connections. Multiple Ethernet connections will require some sort of switching hub to manage the traffic into and out of the shared internet connection, as well as between the various devices. Wireless will likewise still require some sort of central access point. So where, exactly, does this "visionary" genius see the change happening? This is already what we have now, and there's no real reason to change it. Is it a veiled reference to IPv6? Is he simply saying that NAT is going to become superfluous and that somehow that means the same as "the LAN will disappear"? Is he really claiming that no one will firewall their home devices at their [cablemodem/DSL/FiOS] connection, and will choose to allow anyone on their subnet to come browse their shares? Seriously, the internet is a great tool for mass communication, but this ain't no hippy commune. Anyone with enough sense to come in out of the rain is going to want to separate their stuff from the rabble outside. And if so, how is that--- a set of IP addresses behind a firewall--- not basically a LAN?
                • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

                  What are the advantages to having them on one of the IPv4 non-WAN-routed addresses that are currently used for LANs? If you're setting up a new LAN, would you prefer to have two address groups, have to set up port forwarding etc, or just allow unrestricted inbound access between your two offices? Would you prefer to plan out all of the separate addressing and how they relate to the computers, maintain a MAC-to-IP table, or go off of IPv6's stateless-IP address allocation scheme that merely suffixes the loc

    • Re:Well, could it? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by sm62704 (957197) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:58PM (#22252184) Journal
      I agree, it's a stupid statement. Ethernet may be superceded by newer technologies, but there will always be uses for a local network.

      Some networks, for example, should never be connected to the internet in any way.
      • by somersault (912633) on Thursday January 31 2008, @04:46PM (#22253118) Homepage Journal

        Some networks, for example, should never be connected to the internet in any way.
        Please don't say such things! What if any Hollywood writers are reading this!? Won't someone please think of the implausible movie scripts? :(
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        So the assumption is that LANs will go in favour of VPN type stuff over the net because net speeds will be fast enough? I think that's bogus, because people would be doing it now if that's the case. In 10 years time WAN connections will be very fast, yes, but I'm pretty sure LAN connections will be ultra mega fast. Couple this with moves towards thin client type applications being run from a business's server to its desktops and the unknowable crazy application ideas that will spring up thanks to ingenious
  • ... the lan isn't going to disappear, at least not in 10 years. Can you imagine IBM, a defense corp, a huge pharma, etc... ditching their lans for wireless? yeah right, not any time soon.
    • I think he is perhaps alluding to the inevitable fall of LAN to WLAN.
      • FTA:

        Reliability is easier to overcome since the Internet is getting more reliable, and if the hardware is cheap enough, I can just get two wireless interface cards, with different carriers, and the computer will load-balance across those links.
        Nope, he's talking direct desktop to WAN connections. Maybe I'm not thinking far enough outside the box, but I can't think of any good reasons (that don't come with several bad reasons) to actually ditch a LAN for a WAN connection.
      • I was assuming that in my response. I don't see the LAN disappearing in the next 10 years for the simple fact that a WLAN is less secure by its very nature than a LAN. Any corporation or entity with information worth stealing, isn't going to be getting rid of their LANs anytime soon. That would be insane. A LAN can have its access points physically secured and tightly controlled and monitored. You go wireless, and you've created a range where people can not only create their own potential access points, but
    • by HornWumpus (783565) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:28PM (#22251580)

      It's not LAN vs wireless, it's LAN vs WAN.

      Running a WAN without using LANs throughout is nonsense. IIRC a WAN is just bridged LANs by definition. Proposing that all the LANs will have one node is just silly.

      Typical Bob Metcalfe of recent years. The man has lost it. Granted I haven't bothered reading anything he's written in a few years.

    • My thought exactly. When I first started working for the company I do now, every one of the workstations on campus had a public IP address. And then all of the sudden people started getting Net Send messages for Viagra.

      I don't want every computer in the world to be able to see my computer, at least not directly. Perhaps I'm missing a point here but seems to me that as long as there is a need for firewalls, there is going to be a need for LAN's.
      • NAT != Firewall. (Score:5, Informative)

        by SanityInAnarchy (655584) <ninja@slaphack.com> on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:57PM (#22252174) Journal
        There's nothing more to say to you until you get that one, crucial point: Firewalls do not have to be NATs, and NATs don't have to firewall. And you need a firewall whether or not you have a NAT.

        Once you do, understand that NAT is a brutally ugly hack. It's much easier and more powerful to simply be able to open a firewall port than to have to forward ports.

        And you do need a firewall on your computer -- that, or just turn services off. If you don't do one of the two, wireless will bite you someday.
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          NAT is here to stay and it's not an ugly hack. A company like, say, IBM does not want to have to go to ICANN every time it hooks another laptop to its internal network. Nor does the rest of the Internet need to know about IBM's internal network topology. NAT is actually a useful piece of technology to make TCP/IP networks manageable.

              • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

                See post:
                http://it.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=437480&cid=22259056 [slashdot.org]

                IPv6 is allocated in blocks of /64 (64 bit) or /48 (48-bit) depending on how stingy your ISP is. You don't get one IP, you get BILLIONS.

                Which is better, having a single external IP which responds to maybe 30 ports out of 16k, or having 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 (64-bit) or 281,474,976,710,656 (48-bit) external IPs, each of which may or may not be a machine, and even if it is it may not respond on any port.

                If you want security by obscuri
  • by AltGrendel (175092) <{ag-slashdot} {at} {exit0.us}> on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:23PM (#22251452) Homepage
    People and businesses will always want to keep some things privately networked.

    Or at least, they should, but then people do some pretty stupid things sometimes.

    • by DigitAl56K (805623) on Thursday January 31 2008, @04:15PM (#22252514)
      LAN's are not only about privacy and security, but also:

      * Putting you in control of your own infrastructure
      * Ensuring quality of service (e.g. bandwidth that is not shared with the rest of the world)
      * Managing your own costs .. and more. Of course, as far as privacy and security is concerned, if the LAN goes away and we use an open network, the Government is going to be free to snoop on whatever traffic they like. Queue the "encryption" fanatics...
  • by Adambomb (118938) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:24PM (#22251466) Journal
    Don't trust any spec over 40.

    wait...
  • LAN or WAN (Score:5, Insightful)

    by lthown (737539) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:25PM (#22251492)
    doesn't matter what you want to call it, two computers connected to a local router/hub is a LOCAL area network.
    • No, it is called am "On Ramp".

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        No-one uses hubs any more, they all use switches, which are essentially transparent routers anyhow.

        No, a better definition is that a LAN has a firewall on the outside.
        With IPv4 it was a good definition to say that a LAN has a NAT on the outside (what most people call a router), but with IPv6 NAT is redundant, so instead of a "router/NAT/firewall/DHCP server" box, you just need a "router/firewall/DHCP server" box instead. There's a slight difference that the DHCP server in the former is giving out local addr
  • Yawn... (Score:5, Funny)

    by MightyMartian (840721) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:26PM (#22251516) Journal
    Yes yes, and we'll have flying cars and robots cooking our meals.

    Prognosticator didn't used to be a synonym for clueless shithead. Thanks to Dvorak, that has changed, and looking at the clueless shitheads he's spawned.
  • ...have been greatly exaggerated, methinks.

    From TFA:

    Firms are finding that they can skip cabling and adopt wireless networks. The next step is to give each machine a direct Internet connection, with appropriate security technology, skipping the LAN, he predicted.


    Nice caveat..."appropriate security technology"...that one reason is why this move to the "huge WAN" won't be happening anytime soon.
  • Could the LAN actually be nearing the end of its lifecycle?

    Pending some fantastic breakthrough, it will always be cheaper and easier to send lots of data across a small distance than to send lots of data across a long distance. Thus LAN technology will be faster/cheaper and continue to exist.

  • going away? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by gEvil (beta) (945888) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:26PM (#22251540)
    Could the LAN actually be nearing the end of its lifecycle?

    Not as long as they let me control my own home network...
  • by Linker3000 (626634) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:29PM (#22251588)
    Let me count the ways:

    Infanet
    ARCnet
    10Net
    Appletalk
    Token Ring
    Ethernet: Thick/thin/UTP/STP/fibre/wireless

  • 'LAN' ? (Score:4, Funny)

    by Stavr0 (35032) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:29PM (#22251592) Homepage Journal
    "Are you from the past?" -- Roy, The IT Crowd

    We call that 'Intranet' nowadays.

  • ...do NOT miss our ARCnet-wielding overlords.

    DIP switches to set the address, and without a list of existing addresses, was a recipe for disaster for fresh installs. In addition it used coax, which some of the older field techs here can probably attest to having seen crimped with pliers. Terminators on both ends.

    Bleah.

    Yup, it's much better to network today.

  • by MavEtJu (241979) <edwin AT mavetju DOT org> on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:32PM (#22251656) Homepage
    The LAN as we knew it, the one ethernet cable going through all rooms and being looped on the wall with a small jumper, is already dead for a long time.

    The LAN as we know it, one central switch with a lot of ethernet cables getting out to individual ports in rooms, has been here for ages.

    What didn't go away was the local addressing methods for sending data to all hosts (broadcast) and interaction with higher level protocols (ARP for determining the IP address).

    The LAN as we are going to know it, a bunch of intercepted central-and-not-so-central switches which put you in the right (V)LAN when you plug in your computer to a random port connected to it, is here also if your organisation requires it, but for smaller organisations this is not really necessary:

    and predicts that all machines will be individually connected to one huge WAN at gigabit speeds

    You need a gigabit WAN for that to work, not all smaller organisations have the need for this. But yes I have rolled it out for two customers.
  • by ngr8 (504185) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:36PM (#22251756) Journal
    Funny. I'd been talking about this MiniTruth and Token Ring phenomena with a friend just the other day. Whilst being all corporate, actually had an IBM SE come up to me and tell me that I was risking my [redacted big honkin company] through the advocacy of Ethernet.

    Two months later, at a big conference for all True Believers conducted by IBM, actually heard IBM plants in the audience doing the amen corner thing with Greek Chorus of "alas, Ethernet would kill the King" lines.... up to the "802.3 will make it hurt when you pee" level of nonsense.

    The fact that a 3745 [burly iron werken] running remotely was actually running on the backup token ring thingie for a month before it fell over and died because the primary ring had never worked [vague memory of route discovery]was, well, pretty f'n sweet.

    IBM's always been a great company, seriously, but the LAN wars were not its finest hour.
        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          You still send 8 bytes of preamble, which is the part of the packet needed for collision detect, and have an interpacket gap, even on a switch. All that the switch does is prevent you from sending all packets to all branches, it doesn't eliminate the collision detect timing. On fibre channel, packets can be closely spaced because idle characters keep synchronization.
  • ISPs (Score:3, Interesting)

    by spartacus06 (1121201) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:42PM (#22251874)
    As long as residential ISPs only let you have 1 IP address, there will be LANs. Maybe they will get more generous with IPv6 (yeah right).
  • by dazedNconfuzed (154242) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:54PM (#22252108)
    That reasoning amounts to expecting every doorway from every room to open onto a major automotive freeway.

    LANs will survive indefinitely precisely because sometimes your data is just feet or yards away ... and because even Internet backbones can't handle the load of routing data for everyone's personal networked printers, storage servers, and media terminals.
  • Reliability (Score:5, Funny)

    by KalvinB (205500) on Thursday January 31 2008, @03:57PM (#22252172) Homepage
    Until WAN routers are cheap and reliable, it won't happen. I've had the same $30 Netgear router I've had for 5 years without any issues. My Belkin wireless router can't go a day without being unreliable. The Mac Mini had a hard time connecting to web-sites until we switched from wireless to LAN.

    When you need 100% uptime you can go with a $30 router or spend significantly more than that for a wireless router and network card that won't ever drop your connection.

    I'll keep my wires thank you very much.
  • by gweihir (88907) on Thursday January 31 2008, @05:44PM (#22254254)
    ...from people that do not unserstand how tese things work. The LAN is not about technology. It is about hierachical organization, proplem encapsulation and cost. These factors will not go away, wery likely not ever.