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Gartner Analysts Warn That Windows Is Collapsing

Posted by Soulskill on Fri Apr 11, 2008 07:18 AM
from the the-sky-is-falling-if-you-have-enough-ram dept.
spacefiddle writes "Computerworld has an article about a presentation from Gartner analysts in Las Vegas claiming that Windows is 'collapsing', and that Microsoft 'must make radical changes to the operating system or risk becoming a has-been.' Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald provided an analysis of what went wrong with Vista, and what they feel Microsoft can and must do to correct its problems. Larry Dignan of ZDNet has his own take, and while he agrees, he suggests that the downfall of Windows will be slow and drawn-out. As an interesting tangent to this, there's also a story from a few days prior about Ubuntu replacing Windows for a school's library kiosks, getting good performance out of older hardware. '[Network administrator Daniel] Stefyn said he was "pleasantly surprised" to discover that the Kubuntu desktops ran some applications faster with Linux than when they ran on Windows. An additional benefit of Windows' departure from student library terminals saw the students cease 'hacking the setup to install and play games or trash the operating system.'"
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  • by Moryath (553296) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:26AM (#23034814)
    Most users do not understand the benefits of Windows Vista...

    You mean the almost-constant nag screens?

    or do not see Vista as being better enough than Windows XP...

    Making them smarter than the lying marketroids selling it...

    to make incurring the cost and pain of migration worthwhile.

    Translation: People are smarter than they think, and an OS that takes twice the hardware to be twice as slow AND even more incompatible with previous software isn't worth my money.

    Of course, they still get sales - from the same idiots at my work who want to be upgraded from Office 2003 to Office 2007 because it's a bigger number, and then complain that they are confused by Office 2007 and want the tech support guys to "fix" it.
    • by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 11 2008, @07:50AM (#23035016)

      Most users do not understand the benefits of Windows Vista...

      You mean the almost-constant nag screens?
      Are you sure you mean the almost-constant nag screens?
      • by cab15625 (710956) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:36AM (#23035474)
        I've had the exact opposite experience. My new (as in fresh out of the box) lenovo x61 tablet took just over five minutes to boot Vista, and then a furnther 7 minutes (wtf!) to finish grinding at the hard-drive after I login. Shutting down I never timed but I walked away in disgust after three mintues. My seven year old desktop put the tablet's performance to shame when I did use it for "regular work". Granted, some of that has to do with the crapware that gets loaded onto a new laptop these days, but it's still pretty extreme. I kept it there for three days to see what was so "wow" about vista. For me, there's really not much "wow" there. To be fair, this is largely because I'm used to a computer behaving a certain way, like doing what I tell it to do. Also, glitzy eye-candy doesn't impress me ... especially if I've already been using a faster version of it for two years.

        Slackware 12.0 boots up in 47 s and once you login, KDE grinds the HD for about 30 s more. Now, the response times I'm getting are better than my 7 year old desktop ... as you would expect rather than the other way around as was the case with vista on there.

        An OS shouldn't limit your hardware performance. This, more than the nagging, is what turned me of of Vista.
  • by Kwirl (877607) <kwirlkarphys@gmai[ ]om ['l.c' in gap]> on Friday April 11 2008, @07:28AM (#23034826)

    For how many years have slashdot 'experts' been predicting the 'downfall' of windows? For 23 years they have not just controlled, the word is 'dominated' the desktop environment. For the majority of computer users, the words 'Windows' and 'Computer' are borderline synonymous.

    And you're proof? Because some users believe that 'Vista sucks' blah blah blah. How many people started ringing the bells for Microsoft after Windows ME? We saw how that worked out...

    • by Doctor_Jest (688315) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:35AM (#23034886)
      Gartner owns Slashdot now?

      Man, when did this happen?

      You are right about one thing... the morons still equate "windows" with "computer". But thanks to the 'tubes, TV, and Apple's marketing, that _is_ changing.

      Death knell? Windows will not die with a bang, but with a whimper... but what do I know... I'm posting on Gartner, er Slashdot.
      • by mysticgoat (582871) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:53AM (#23035664) Journal

        Death knell? Windows will not die with a bang, but with a whimper...

        Nah.

        Windows will die like a big ole dinosaur, and its death throes are gonna mess up its local ecosystem real bad.

        Stay well clear of that tail. There's no mind controlling it any more.

        And... well... there's no pleasant way to say this, but it needs to be said. So WARNING: NEXT PARAGRAPH MAY EVOKE UGLY GRAPHIC IMAGERY!

        When a dinosaur dies like Windows is dying, it not only thrashes around a lot, but all its sphincter muscles relax and contents of its bowels and bladder spew forth, driven by the pressures of the terminal seizure. You want to be on high ground and up wind when that happens.

    • by Anne Thwacks (531696) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:42AM (#23034948)
      There is a difference. MS rely on the guidance of marketing analyst PT Barnum ("There's a sucker born every minute"). In the days of ME, this was a fair analysis - most ME users had never seen a computer before. Not only you could sell them most anything, they had no one to turn to who knew better until win2k came out, and then the migration path was obvious.

      Unfortunately for MS, virtually the entire world's population now has Windows experience. It was not a great experience.

      Some are cretins, and could not interface with a 4x2, but enjoy blaming windows

      Some are experienced IT people who have seen Linux/Unix and know how it could be.

      Most are now in a position to ask the professionals "Is this as good as it gets?" and being told - no, there IS another way.

      Some are migrating to Vista, and realising that if it can get worse, sure as hell it could get better somehow. They know who to ask for advice, and its not the guy in PC world.

      • by vux984 (928602) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:20AM (#23035298)
        Some are experienced IT people who have seen Linux/Unix and know how it could be.

        Was this a pro-linux/unix comment or a pro-windows comment? Its much too ambiguous.

        Getting linux running smoothly can be just as trying as windows if not more trying.

        Most are now in a position to ask the professionals "Is this as good as it gets?" and being told - no, there IS another way.

        A different way, with its own slew of canyon-wide pitfalls. Like... nearly all your software won't work, including your accounting software won't run on it at all, period. Or the minefield of setting up dual screens or wifi, or getting your shiny new blackberry or iphone to sync contacts with outlook... oh wait... no outlook...

        Sure ubuntu etc have reached the point where you can build a basic web&email machine very quickly and its pretty simple, but go much beyond that and Linux throws plenty of obstacles into your path. Some can be overcome, some can't.

    • by johannesg (664142) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:45AM (#23034968)
      Your argument essentially boils down to, "they had a pretty good run so far so I'm assuming they are invincible".

      Same how the Roman empire was invincible, really. And the British empire. And let's not even get started on the American empire, which is crumbling before our very eyes.

      Where is IBM? Where is Word Perfect? Both ruled supreme in their days, but those days are long gone. And just like IBM, Microsoft will still be around - but not as the powerhouse it once was. It will just be another big player instead.

      One day soon the stockholders will ask why Microsoft is sinking so much money into XBox 360 or any of those other loss-making projects that Microsoft enjoys so much. And once they pull the plug on such projects, they will start to wonder if profits wouldn't be higher if Office were in a separate company, not fettered to any particular operating system.

      Windows will survive that, as will Microsoft. But it will gradually become a niche product, one of many choices available for the operating system. Hardware will be controlled more and more through hypervisors. Applications will more and more be in virtualized environments of their own (beit virtual machines like Java or .NET, or in interpreted environments like browsers).

      And one day, someone will ask "what operating system are you running that on?", and despite being a card-carrying geek with a 4-digit slashdot ID, you will be forced to admit "Uhm, I'm not actually sure." Because it won't matter anymore.

    • by LiquidCoooled (634315) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:45AM (#23034970) Homepage Journal
      The Windows Me situation was different.

      Microsoft had the entire Windows NT branch practically ready and waiting in the wings to replace it with.

      With XP coming to the end of its life for desktop machines, what can they move to this time?

    • by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 11 2008, @07:48AM (#23034994)
      Ordinarily, it might look like everybody is just decrying their favorite OS...but I think Bill's recent announcement that Win7 is coming next year lends some credence to the speculation.

      Think about it--every self-respecting business decided to hold off on Vista until at least after SP1. Well, SP1 has only just arrived, but before those businesses even have a chance to think about migrating, M$ is talking about releasing a completely new OS. It's speculation, sure, but it looks like Redmond believes it too, if they're willing to make a move like this...
    • by elrous0 (869638) * on Friday April 11 2008, @08:13AM (#23035236)
      I would personally love nothing better than to be able to cut the strings and ditch Windows myself. It's expensive and the target-of-choice for virtually every piece of malware, spyware, and virus. But every time I try, I always come back. Why?

      Because Apple is even more expensive and just as proprietary as Windows, won't let me build my own system, and is poorly supported by software developers. If Apple dominated the market, there is every reason to believe they would be just as heavy-handed as MS, if not much worse.

      Because doing anything in Linux ends up with me banging my head against my computer screen. Even Ubuntu, the most user-friendly distro so far, is an endless series of frustrations. "Why can't I just download a piece of software and double-click on it to install?!?!" "What is the difference between KDE and Gnome and why should it matter?!?!" "Why do I have to go to the command line interface to do even basic stuff?" Hell, until the latest release, Ubuntu wouldn't even let me attach a projector without a complicated edit to the Xorg config file. ARGHHHHH!!!

      Windows may die one day, but it's going to take a *lot* more work before anyone else is going to slay that dragon.

      • by R_Dorothy (1096635) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:56AM (#23035708)

        "Why can't I just download a piece of software and double-click on it to install?!?!" "What is the difference between KDE and Gnome and why should it matter?!?!" "Why do I have to go to the command line interface to do even basic stuff?"

        As a Linux user I have the opposite frustrations when I come to use Windows. "Why do I have to search the web to find a piece of software to download? Why can't I just go to 'Add/Remove Programs', type in the name (or a keyword) and click install?", "Why can't I chose a different desktop environment when I log in?", "Why can't I use the command line to do even basic stuff?"

        Different strokes for different folks.

    • by poot_rootbeer (188613) on Friday April 11 2008, @09:08AM (#23035850)
      For 23 years they have not just controlled, the word is 'dominated' the desktop environment.

      Check your numbers. Windows 1.0 may have come out in 1985, but it was pretty much a joke, a slightly prettier version of DOSSHELL.EXE. Windows 2.x was hardly any better.

      It wasn't until 1992, with version 3.1, that the Windows monoculture really began to take hold, and not until Win95 that 'domination' could be rightly claimed.

  • by sqldr (838964) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:32AM (#23034854)
    An additional benefit of Windows' departure from student library terminals saw the students cease 'hacking the setup to install and play games or trash the operating system.'"

    Yeah, that'll last. I'll give it a week before someone finds a manual and migrates their "expertise" to their new operating system.
  • At home perhaps (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Oxy the moron (770724) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:34AM (#23034872)

    I can see this happening rather quickly at home. It hasn't been hard to convince my family members to get away from Windows. While my wife is probably more computer savvy than most, she hasn't had any problems switching from Windows to Linux, and actually likes it more. It's been more difficult for others I've gotten to switch, but in general the result has been positive.

    The corporate world is a completely different story, though. Many large, medium, and small companies have committed vast resources to development in .Net. And while a good chunk of that can be run on Mono in a non-Windows environment, it's not entirely the same, and transitioning to something else, from a OS or software perspective, is going to take even more time and money in an economy where money isn't readily available.

    Additionally, while you can probably count on your IT staff to have a reasonably easy transition to something other than Windows, your non-tech employee base is almost certainly going to have a great deal of difficulty. Add in the fact that lots of small and mid-size businesses use "friendly" accounting software that runs solely on Windows, and I think Microsoft has a much larger buffer for error than most people think.

    Will it happen? God I hope so... but I'm not optimistic it will happen even in the next 5-10 years.

  • by BadAnalogyGuy (945258) <BadAnalogyGuy@gmail.com> on Friday April 11 2008, @07:36AM (#23034894)
    Michael Silver, it should be noted, is fairly neutral in his coverage of Microsoft. Here is a link to his past papers:

    http://www.gartner.com/Search?op=16&f=2&keywords=&bop=0&op=16&sort=73&archived=0&simple1=0&n=8332&authorId=8332&resultsPerSearch=0&dir=70&sort=73&dir=70 [gartner.com]

    The problem, as I see it, is not Vista itself. Rather, it is the slow but steady migration from PCs being central to computing tasks to reliance on servers for processing power and storage. Although Outlook client may run on your PC, the real work managing your company's mail is handled in the backrooms on server hardware. They aren't running client Windows back there.

    So on the front end, as McNealy and Ellison have been saying for a decade, computers require less and less individual computing power, and backend servers need more and more. This is the problem for Windows because the growing requirements of the OS to do all the cool things that users like is outstripping the pace at which the needs of the users are growing. Translation: Vista does too much unnecessary stuff (however cool and flashy it might be.)

    Apple does this too, but their hardware requirements are automatically met by virtue of them selling the hardware themselves. Linux, OTOH, is both a low-end client and a high-end server. It fills the roles needed by users without bringing with it a hefty cost per unit.

    The upshot is that the PC as a computing platform is ailing. It will always have its place, and it will hang on for quite a while longer. However, the general trend towards less necessary functionality on the client end and more stability and power on the server side means that alternative systems now have a lower hurdle to gain a foothold in the upcoming paradigm shift.

    We have already seen a huge shift away from laptops as the mobile computer towards dedicated devices like the Blackberry and smartphone. As we progress, many of the roles that the PC plays now will move closer to the user so that the usage scenario no longer is sitting in front of a glowing monitor but rather sitting back and doing the same job faster and more easily than currently performed. I, for one, welcome our new embedded overlords.
  • by Bombula (670389) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:41AM (#23034938)
    Despite Microsoft's valiant efforts, the real problem is that PCs running a windows-ish GUI have become a ubiquitous utility in our society, just like water and roads and electricity and phones. This is not a good thing for a technology company. It was not good for Bell for phones to evolve from a cutting-edge innovative technology to a ubiquitous utility, or for Edison for electricity to do the same.

    When a technology service becomes ubiquitous and homogenous and - importantly - ceases being innovative, it runs the risk of becoming a candidate for conversion into a public utility. To stave this off, either ongoing innovation is required or the illusion of innovation and change is required. Microsoft has done a bit of both with Windows. But it's a thin veneer. As a result, poopulist efforts to 'socialize' this technology into a public utility are surging; hence, Ubuntu et al.

  • by vainov (107102) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:42AM (#23034950)
    Windows NT was developed by Dave Cuttler (of DEC VMS team) based on a operating system specification developed by IBM. (It was supposed to be released under the name OS/2 version 3).
    Microsoft implemented the Windowing API on top of that operating system.

    The fact is that Microsoft has never developed a commercial operating system from scratch!!!

    They have only incremented the original Windows NT (a.k.a. OS/2 v3.0) code base, for example by:
      - replacing the OS/2 file system delivered in Windows NT with the more modern NTFS
      - re-writing the OS/2 deveice driver layer of Windows NT with a new, 32-bit and C-based API [the original NT device driver model was 16-bit and assembler-based]
      - moving the implementation of the graphics API into the ring-0 kernel [big mistake!]
      - replacing the OS/2 multitaskin DOS compatibility (i.e. the text window of Windows) with a less DOS-compatible one, which was supposed to run on multiple processor architectures.

    The effort to create a new operating system core for Vista failed because of lack of in-house knowlege.

    The task of writing a new core OS (under the Windows API) seems to be too difficult for a company run by marketing people and lawyers.
  • legacy code (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Iphtashu Fitz (263795) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:46AM (#23034980)
    If anything, legacy code will be Microsofts downfall (as TFA stated). I saw this happen firsthand for a company I worked for over a decade ago. They had a pretty impressive application and a long list of Fortune 500 corporations as customers. Even IBM (we're talking back before the Windows 3.x days) was basically giving the company a few million dollars a year for the privilege of reselling the software themselves. Well rather than build new versions of the application from the ground up, or even introducing potential incompatibilities between major releases, the powers that be insisted on full backward compatibility.

    Over time more competitors showed up in the marketplace, and as the economy shifted IBM stopped tossing money in our laps. Our engineers (of which I was one) spent most of their time trying to figure out how to shoehorn new features and entire new parallel products on top of the existing legacy codebase. The inevitable result was that we struggled while our competitors came out with newer, more modern & more powerful software. I eventually left that company to go to a startup where 7 others from this company had already gone to. That company was acquired a couple years later, and the application pretty much no longer exists.

    If the engineers, who had requested the ability to create a new product from the ground up, had been listened to, then perhaps that company would still be around and competitive. It was mainly because of the business decisions to retain backward compatibility, like MS has done with Windows, that they eventually disappeared. As long as MS maintains their own demand for backward compatibility they'll be waging a slow & prolonged war that they have no chance of winning.
  • Of course Windows is going to decline.

    The International Monetary Fund [telegraph.co.uk] just announced that the sub-prime crisis has tipped the USA into the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. During recessions, the first thing to get cut back on is unnecessary infrastructure replacement -- and PCs have been marketed on the basis of planned obsolescence [wikipedia.org] for around a decade now. So the PC replacement cycle will be hit, hard.

    Vista is a resource hog, Ubuntu is just about coming up to mass market usability, and a lot of places are going to stop replacing their PCs annually or bi-annually in the next couple of years. Unless Windows 7 is as comparatively lightweight as XP, it's going to crash in the "upgrade your OS" market -- only new PCs will ship with it. So Microsoft will have two poor sellers in a row -- which is enough, in the mind of the fickle public, to establish a trend, and with Apple chowing down on 25% of the high-end laptop market already, they're in danger of being squeezed between a high-end competitor and a low-end one.

    But.

    Windows is so big, with such a huge established base, that its decline will resemble that of the old IBM mainframe environment -- which is still doing fine, decades after the death of the mainframe was predicted. This ain't going to happen overnight.

  • by Bones3D_mac (324952) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:50AM (#23035618)
    All of you open source developers hoping for the day that Linux/BSD/etc is taken seriously as a consumer platform (similar to what Windows and the Mac OS have enjoyed for over a decade) need to start banding together now to discuss how to make something as complicated as Linux truly accessible to any user without sacrificing the benefits Linux offers. Until commercial entities like Adobe see that there is a viable audience to market their products to in Linux/BSD/etc, these OSes are going to live out most of their lives as little more than behind-the-scenes grunt-work software or as a niche item on a hobbyist's / enthusiast's computer in some basement.

    Somehow, there needs to be some form of interface consistency across the board that is logical, useful and attractive to even the least intelligent of users.

    Take the 3D application "Blender" for example. Most of us know that Blender itself is fairly powerful when used correctly by the right person. Yet despite the fact that Blender is both power and free, your typical consumer level user is far more likely to gravitate toward products like Carrara Studio, based almost entirely on it's presentation and interface design. People don't like it when their software intimidates them and they are more than willing to pay good money to avoid it whenever possible.

    You also have to consider that time is a major factor as well. While anyone could "learn" to use Blender effectively and efficiently, the time invested in overcoming the learning curve is too much for many of us. If you were to compare Blender's interface directly against Carrara Studio's interface. Most users would again gravitate toward Carrara since they perceive a much lower investment of time involved in trying to "get it". The reality though, is that the core learning curve on either of these apps for most functions is probably identical.

    Overall though, it's likely going to be a lot more difficult than it sounds to put a new face on Linux to make it pretty, useful and non-threatening to the average user. Hell, Apple's been trying for nearly 10 years with Mac OS X, and they've only just barely got it right. (Despite the numerous flaws...) It can be done, but it'll take a lot of effort to really pull it off.
    • by Maury Markowitz (452832) on Friday April 11 2008, @09:29AM (#23036112) Homepage

      All of you open source developers hoping for the day that Linux/BSD/etc is taken seriously as a consumer platform
      I think you may be missing the point here. MS has always lived on its revenue stream generated by OS and Office. Over the last half-decade or more, the market growth has dwindled to represent a small percentage of their streams; this was inevitable as the installed base grew. Without upgrades on installed machines, their revenue drops.

      That's bad. Really really bad. It's bad because they won't be able to afford to develop their way out of their problems if the cashflow into the OS division becomes a serious drag on the bottom line. The current Windows system is so large that it requires armies of programmers to develop it's many little pieces, and any sort of "global project" is simply impossible -- as Vista demonstrated.

      The situation is extremely similar to Apple in the mid-90s with the Copland project (go read the wiki article). As the project grew it got to the point where they needed an infinite number of people to develop it (see "Mythical Man Month"). Combined with rapidly dwindling sales, and thus revenue, they couldn't even afford a finite number of developers, and the entire project imploded.

      As Copeland demonstrated, the solution is to start over with a new plan. Let's not forget that Apple has switched platforms _four_times_ (68k -> PPC -> OS X -> Intel). If they can do it, so can MS. But if MS is going to do it, they are going to have to pull the trigger, and every release of the existing code base makes that decision harder and harder.

      Working against MS is the fact that they are *not* near death. Apple's brush with extinction meant there was very few people to piss off when the inevitable happened and the old systems were semi-abandoned into the "penalty box" (Blue Box). MS has hundreds of millions of users, it's going to make their life extremely difficult. VMs may indeed work, given recent advances, and if they can isolate applications in different VMs then they might make the system more secure as a free offshoot.

      Maury
    • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by OzRoy (602691) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:53AM (#23035056)
      Of course not, that is stupid. But you would still say Linux can run on these devices despite the fact it also has to be recompiled and tweaked etc. I think what they are arguing is that Apple uses the same code base for the iPhone as it does for their desktops. Microsoft however has two completely seperate products for Windows and Windows Mobile which increases the development costs and complexity.
    • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by mabhatter654 (561290) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:23AM (#23035328)
      Steve has shown in 5 years that Apple can release more interesting stuff than Microsoft. Apple just "does" it, they don't pre-announce years in advance. Steve just shows up on sage with a fully operational Intel Mac running Apple's software Suite (OSX, iLife, etc) on day 1, or with a fully functioning iPhone that happens to have used OSX, on day 1.

      Microsoft bellyaches how "hard" software is to make, and constantly delays (and they don't make computers or phones and sell them) Apple makes it look very easy and investors are starting to see Microsoft isn't really that good at their CORE job.
      • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Vellmont (569020) on Friday April 11 2008, @09:42AM (#23036300)

        Apple just "does" it, they don't pre-announce years in advance.

        That's very true. The reasons are more to do with where each company is in the market though. Apple doesn't have much to lose if some applications don't maintain backward compatibility. Microsoft has a hell of a lot to lose. Shit, Apple just announced they were ditching Carbon for the fully 64 bit version of OSX. That means a lot of re-development, and incompatibility of apps. For Microsoft when you're at the front of the race you've got a LOT more to lose than anyone else.

        The other major difference is Apple doesn't have this horrid codebase that Microsoft does. They went through their transition pretty recently having ditched all their legacy code long ago. Essentially OSX and Linux are light on their feet, modular, and can turn on a dime. Windows is the hulking giant dinosaur that takes years to realize it-ain't-gonna-work.
    • Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)

      by rbanffy (584143) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:29AM (#23035394) Homepage
      This confusion is very common. There is the core OS and the MacOS X product you can buy in boxes. The core OS does not include Finder or Aqua. Just by getting rid of the superfluous components, Apple was able to shrink OSX to a bare minimum and then, just by selectively compiling the parts that made sense to include in the phone and iPod products, they achieved the desired footprint. It's like compiling a minimal kernel on Linux or BSD - really simple.

      There could have been some problems with ARM-incompatible stuff, but those problems did not prevent the product launch.

      As for developing, doing it for the iPhone OS is very close to developing for MacOS. Not everything is present, but it is a lot easier than to transition from desktop Windows to Windows CE.

      I wouldn't be surprised if Apple did shrink it even further for smaller devices. The iPhone/iPod Touch have proven it can be done and getting rid of OpenGL ES, CoreAnimation and Cocoa Touch would end up in a very, very small OS.

      Yes. Microsoft painted itself into a corner. They will, eventually, figure a way to get out, but I am not sure they will do it in time.
    • Re:Really? (Score:5, Funny)

      by Hatta (162192) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:56AM (#23035706) Journal
      Of course not. Gartner is a think tank for hire, their bread and butter is outlandish predictions. The only news here is that Gartner is predicting bad things for Microsoft. Was Microsoft late on their payments?
      • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

        by MLCT (1148749) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:49AM (#23035010)

        so who's to say that Microsoft can't trim Windows in order to fit better on a handheld?
        I think that is the point. 5 years of development and one service pack later MS is still struggling to get Vista to run on the machines it was designed for. Creating a lean palm version would be a million miles away.

        I am not aware of the detailed structure of Vista's kernel, but my guess would be it is unlikely to be easily scaled down - it is an OS that requires higher specifications than XP to do mundane tasks like file copying. That doesn't suggest efficiency and portability.
        • Re:Really? (Score:5, Funny)

          by RazzleDazzle (442937) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:37AM (#23035490) Journal

          Creating a lean palm version would be a million miles away.

          Hardly. They could just do this on their source code to make it smaller

          s/.*linux is the devil.*\n//gi

          That should drop about 50% of their code size

          • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

            by ozmanjusri (601766) <`moc.liamtoh' `ta' `bob_eissua'> on Friday April 11 2008, @08:32AM (#23035434) Journal
            Rubbish. Vista runs fine on the modern-day machines it was "designed for".

            Sure. That's why Microsoft is fighting a class-action suit against customers who disagree withe your assessment.

            • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

              by unlametheweak (1102159) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:44AM (#23035560)

              Rubbish. Vista runs fine on the modern-day machines it was "designed for".

              Sure. That's why Microsoft is fighting a class-action suit against customers who disagree withe your assessment.

              Not quite. Vista was designed to run on high end machines, however Vista was marketed to be able to run on not-so high end machines.
                • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

                  by geekoid (135745) <dadinportland AT yahoo DOT com> on Friday April 11 2008, @09:35AM (#23036192) Homepage Journal
                  That would be nice is it was designed to run on todays computers. It was not, it was designed to run on computers 4 years ago.

                  The fact that current products are fast enough to cover their poor design is another matter.

                  Since we tested it on dozens of machines with higher spec and it wasn't acceptable, I am dubious of your claim that it will run on that machine with all the features in an acceptable way.

                  That aside, what exactly does Vista bring to the table? Nothing. All the features that would have made this OS an actual improved new OS were stripped out. SO know we have a bloated OS that has no value add and can't justify the expense of a roll out.

                  Failure.
          • Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)

            by d3ac0n (715594) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:51AM (#23035638)

            Heck, you can run Vista usably on hardware up to about 8 years old, with minor upgrades.


            No.

            Not without using a tool such as vLite to essentially strip Vista down to bare bones. And even then it runs like a dog. 8 year old hardware would be hardware from 2000. We are talking MAYBE a 1Ghz processor, (more likely 800Mgz) and probably either 128 or 256 Mb of RAM. That setup runs XP slowly. Vista, with all the extra overhead the larger kernel is running BARELY FUNCTIONS on a machine such as that.

            How do I know? I'VE TRIED IT. Used an old 1Ghz Pentium laptop with 256 MB of RAM, and a vLite'd version of Vista Business with basically NOTHING left in it. Stripped down to basic functionality. It booted, but only JUST. It took no less than 15 minutes to get to the logon screen, and another 5 minutes after that to get to the desktop. Using it was like running an RDP session over a phone line with a large download going at the same time. Slloooooooooooow.

            Now, with some extra RAM, that might have been sped up a bit. But in no way would it ever be able to run Vista in a manner that anyone would consider usable. Vista is too big, too bloated, and too damn slow for older hardware. Thankfully, it is on older hardware that Linux really shines. And with fantastic distros like Ubuntu and it's derivatives, there isn't any more reason to fight with Windows if you don't have the cash to upgrade your hardware.
              • Re:Really? (Score:5, Interesting)

                by toleraen (831634) * on Friday April 11 2008, @09:40AM (#23036274)
                Just curious, how much did you pay for your 2.8 GHz P4 in 2000? Seeing as though that processor wasn't released until August 2002, you must have spent a load of cash!

                8 years ago was still P3 time. The original P4 wasn't released until late 2000.
              • Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)

                by BrentH (1154987) on Friday April 11 2008, @09:48AM (#23036372)
                Funny, because in 2000 AMD was the first to break the GHz barrier, which prompted the introduction of the Pentium 4 in 2001. I think the P4 2.8GHz was introduced in 2004, but I could be off by a year (in both directions). In 2001 Ati introed the Radeon 9700 and more than a year later the 9800. So, because you are clearly making stuff up, I'll post this reply here to warn others not to believe your doubletrollish post
              • Re:Really? (Score:5, Funny)

                by GalacticCmdr (944723) on Friday April 11 2008, @09:58AM (#23036526)

                Funny. My EIGHT YEAR OLD computer came with a pentium 4 2.8GHz, 1GB or RAM, Radeon 9800 Pro, and today, with nothing more than a RAM upgrade to 2GB, runs Vista Ultimate perfectly fine, including the "bells and whistles" like AERO. .... Just because someone makes an uninformed or poor decision, doesn't mean everyone else does.

                Dear god! If you are going to lie at least make it somewhat within the boundaries of reality. The processor you have in your machine was released by Intel in August 2002, yet you claim to have in a EIGHT YEAR OLD computer. I am sure that Intel would love to find out how you got a machine with a processor from 2 years in to the future. That has to be some amazing feat to reach across the barriers of time to grab yourself a hot new processor. Does Stephen Hawking regularly show up at your house to see what other amazing feats you can accomplish?

          • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

            by erroneus (253617) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:56AM (#23035714) Homepage
            The kernel is filled with legacy backward-compatibility stuff from all the way back to Windows 3.1. Some time ago, there was this leaked Windows source code thing going on and someone extracted all the comments and made those available to read. I read through them and saw where there was a LOT of stuff written into the kernel that was there for the purpose of running old code. To me, this is a backwards approach to things... the idea of writing the OS to run applications? The applications should be written for the OS. (I recognize that if Microsoft took this proper approach, they'd risk people not upgrading to their latest OS because of their dependency on older applications that aren't updated, but then that's all part of their broken business model. An OS isn't supposed to be "the thing." It's supposed to be the software that enables access between the hardware and applications that *are* "the thing.")

            I'm actually quite pleased to see the reported direction that Windows 7 is taking. As I have stated earlier, I don't plan to run to Windows 7 and leave Linux behind. Linux is home now and I'm comfortable in it. Apple's MacOSX is interesting and I can make good use of it as well, but it's not home either... I have pondered the idea of moving to a Macbook pro or the like but so far it's hard to imagine leaving home where I'm quite comfortable and I'm sure you can identify with the sentiment if you're a Windows user.

            But that said, I also recognize that Windows is what's used in business and here at work. Windows is also used by just about everyone on the planet... a planet that, incidentally, is connected by this internet thing which I have to coexist in... this same internet that is over-run with Windows computers that have been compromised and are hosting bot services for people to do all manner of terrible things. If Windows 7 represents the "clean slate" that I hope it does, we might see a serious reduction in the amount of that sort of trouble which will make my life better. What I'm saying is that even non-Windows users will benefit from a new Windows OS on every desktop if only because it may serve to clear away a lot of the crap that is polluting the public internet.

            I disapprove of your attempt to disassociate the "bloated GUI" from OS. While it's technically correct, it's practically incorrect. In just the same way that most users think "The Web" is the internet, most people see the GUI as the OS. And since the GUI and the kernel are always together as a virtually inseparable set, they are pretty much one in the same. If you're trying to say that Microsoft could write a new, more simple, GUI for the "Vista kernel" and make it run on lower-end hardware? You're probably right, but not without also modifying the kernel to pull out ALL that backward compatibility stuff. It's really hard to know if they can actually do that or not. Microsoft has testified in court that the GUI, and more specifically, Microsoft Internet Explorer, cannot be removed from the OS because it would break too many things. We know that Microsoft wouldn't lie in court, so it must be true... and so Microsoft would probably also disapprove of your attempt the disassociate the "bloated GUI" from the OS.
          • Re:Really? (Score:5, Funny)

            by Idaho (12907) on Friday April 11 2008, @09:24AM (#23036048)

            The "bloat" in Vista isn't the kernel, it's all the stuff that goes on top like the GUI.


            I think you misspelled "DRM".
              • Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)

                by Idaho (12907) on Friday April 11 2008, @10:48AM (#23037148)

                No DRM-encumbered media, no DRM. Your argument fails.


                Not [auckland.ac.nz] at [windowsvistablog.com] all [theinquirer.net]. You are assuming that the design of Windows makes sense, or that it is designed with the end user in mind. Stop making that mistake.

                For one thing, the DRM code is still there in many (loaded) DLL's, thus using memory (even if it may not be actively in use in the absence of DRM-encumbered media). The increased costs for hardware and driver development to make all this stuff even work, are paid for by you, the end user. Decreased driver stability due to the entirely new driver model (necessary to support DRM)? Guess who can deal with the problems it causes...yup...that would be you. Laptop battery draining faster because drivers are checking all the time whether protected media is present and whether the system is uncompromised [auckland.ac.nz] (also happening while no DRM'ed media is actually present)?

                I guess you can spot the trend by now.
          • Re:Really? (Score:5, Interesting)

            by Temujin_12 (832986) on Friday April 11 2008, @09:54AM (#23036482)

            Rubbish. Vista runs fine on the modern-day machines it was "designed for". Heck, you can run Vista usably on hardware up to about 8 years old, with minor upgrades.
            That's funny, because hardware that's 6-8 years old is exactly why I removed Windows from my desktop computer, kid's computer, my laptop, and replaced it with Linux. Windows XP simply ran too slow (and no, the computers weren't full of malware), so I was faced with a decision. I could throw money at putting more RAM into those 3 systems, buy 2 new computers and 1 laptop, or I could remove Windows and spend nothing but my time to install Linux on all three.

            These three computers now run beautifully and I thoroughly enjoy noticing that after upgrades sometimes things run faster not slower.

            One thing that bothers me, both as a consumer and as someone who tries to be environmentally conscious, is that the continual trend towards more bloat in Windows results in the premature obsolescence of perfectly good hardware. I can foresee getting a total of 8-10 years of good use out of these computers (even more if I do things like reuse them as NAS devices or routers). I save money, do a bit to reduce waste in landfills, and don't have to deal with the frustration of working with an operating system that prevents me from fully utilizing the potential of hardware I bought.

            Frankly, I'm seeing less and less valid reasons for the continued use of Windows other than 'it works' or 'that's what I'm familiar with.' And even those arguments are becoming less and less valid themselves.
      • Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)

        by MouseR (3264) on Friday April 11 2008, @09:03AM (#23035784) Homepage
        Last time you checked, you failed.

        iPhone runs on a down-clocked 112mghz processor. (before the 1.1.2 firmware, it ran at 100mghz). Yes, the processor is capable of 620mghz but the battery would last something like 1 hour so it's been down-clocked.

        Plus the iPhone doesn't have to carry the bazillion drivers that the regular Mac OS X carries, nor the bazillion software in embarks. It is, otherwise, the same Mach kernel.
      • Re:Really? (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Simon Brooke (45012) <stillyet@googlemail.com> on Friday April 11 2008, @09:16AM (#23035932) Homepage Journal

        And as you mentioned, it's just complete and utter bunk. The idea that OSX was just copied over to the iPhone is absurd. "OSX" on the iPhone is to OSX on the desktop as Windows CE is on PDAs and embedded devices (which Microsoft has been doing for at least 8 years or so) to the desktop -- yeah, there's some cross branding, shared libraries (from a source-code perspective -- C is cross-platform, even in the Windows world), API similarities, but underneath it all it isn't the same, and both are best-purposed for their respective targets, which is a much better decision than any run anywhere, lowest-common-denominator approach.

        I don't know whether OSX on the desktop and OSX on an iPhone are the same, because I don't like Apple and have never written anything for either. However, I've written lots of software for BSD, including on embedded devices, and lots of software for Linux, including on phones; and I can verify that BSD on embedded devices is just the same as BSD on the desktop, and that Linux on phones is the same - the codebase with the same libraries and many of the same applications - on phones as it is on the desktop. So there's nothing 'absurd' about the idea that MacOS on an iPhone could be just the same as MacOS on a desktop.

        And, again, having written software for it: Windows CE is not - not even remotely - the same as either Windows95/98/Me or Windows NT/XP/Vista. It's completely different.

        Of course I knew Gartner's opinion was nonsense when they went down the ridiculous-yet-truthy-through-repeated-assertion "monolithic" line of argument (which they likely picked up on Slashdot, it should be mentioned). Vista is a failure not because of any sort of code maintenance problem, but rather that Microsoft aimed far too high with Vista, taking far too many risks for a big, big change.

        Vista's failure is down to poor engineering and poor management. Vista could have been brought out on time with all its features as promised by half a dozen of the companies out there - but not by Microsoft.

    • by value_added (719364) on Friday April 11 2008, @07:58AM (#23035100)
      Forget netcraft.

      It is official. Gartner now confirms: Windows is collapsing.

      One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered Windows community
      when Gartner confirmed that Windows is collapsing in complete disarray and
      risks becoming a has-been. Coming on the heels of a recent survey which
      plainly states that by the end of 2007 only 6.3 percent of the 50,000
      enterprise computer users it surveyed were working with Vista.

      You don't need to be the Amazing Kreskin to predict Windows' future. The
      hand writing is on the wall: Windows faces a bleak future. In fact there
      won't be any future at all for Windows because Windows is collapsing.
      Things are looking very bad for Windows. As many of us are already aware,
      Windows continues to lose market share. Red ink flows like a river of
      blood.

      Fact: Windows is collapsing
      • by spisska (796395) on Friday April 11 2008, @08:26AM (#23035354)

        1) The kids don't know Ubuntu/Gnome like they do Windows. Once they figure it out, they'll continue trashing them and installing games.

        The point is they can't trash Linux since they only have write access to /home/user. Neither can they install games except to /home/user. It's trivial to simply reset /home/user to a default state with every login. Like most changes on Linux, this does not require a reboot.

        2) The morons should properly secure the computers in the first place. If user rights were properly limited in the first place, they wouldn't have had any issues with the Windows machines. And if they don't limit them properly on the Linux ones, they'll have the same problem.

        Rights are properly configured on Linux by default. Your hypothetical kids in the library won't be able to touch anything system related, or anything not owned by the user. There is no configuration required to enforce this.

        That is not how it works in Windows. Yes, you can enforce user levels in XP but some apps will not work, and it is pretty easy to bypass anyway. Maybe Vista is better, but I certainly don't expect to see Vista on a public terminal anytime soon.

      • Re:Hacking the setup (Score:5, Informative)

        by gmack (197796) <gmack&innerfire,net> on Friday April 11 2008, @08:27AM (#23035374) Homepage Journal
        1) Is solved by disabling anything except the C drive as a boot device and setting a BIOS and a grub password. The case may need to be physically secured as well depending on how enthusiastic the students are at wanting to subvert the security.

        2) Many apps don't run well or at all on a properly secured Windows. Ubuntu's Unix like base means apps are designed to expect a rights restricted environment so it's much less painful.

        #2 Is actually Vista's largest problem. Vista is trying to force good application software design that runs against years of experience in the Windows world and it's going to take a long time for app makers to adjust to the new reality.
      • Re:Windows vs Ubuntu (Score:5, Informative)

        by AgentPaper (968688) * on Friday April 11 2008, @08:54AM (#23035678)
        I guess this post must be a figment of my imagination, then, since there's no way I could possibly be writing from a laptop that's been happily running Ubuntu with Intel wireless since 6.06. ...Seriously, can we please stop spreading this "Linux systems can't use 802.11x" FUD? It stopped being true for the vast majority of users several major distributions ago.