Human-Computer Interfaces From 2003 to 2012

Roland Piquepaille writes "My favorite forecaster, Gartner, is back with a new series of predictions about the way we'll interact with our computing devices. Here is the introduction. 'Human-computer interfaces will rapidly improve during the next decade. The wide availability of cheaper display technologies will be one of the most transformational events in the IT industry.' Not exactly a scoop, isn't? But wait, here is a real prediction. 'Computer screens will become ubiquitous in the everyday environment.' Ready for another prediction? 'Through 2012, more than 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) of human-to-computer information input will remain keyboard- and mouse-based.' Check this column for a summary."

Media Labs

[VoidEngineer]

Check out the University of Chicago's Computing Cluster & Cybercafe"> and MIT's Media Lab [mit.edu] for more information about human user interfaces. This article is behind the times, in regards to stuff that's already been produced in the laboratories.

know thou math

[Anonymous Coward]

A probability of 1 means absolute certainty.
0.6 probability = 0.6 * 100 / 100 = 60 %

Re:Gartner is useless

[Traa]

as much as I think the article was a little light on interesting details, lets not get carried away by ridiculing mr Gartner.

If you can't figure out from the article that these statements and numbers are part of a bigger document then I'll do it for you:

Mindless extrapolation of the obvious: "... will remain keyboard- and mouse-based."
Try the same sentence without the "keyboard- and mouse-based" part. It doesn't work.

Authoritative sounding numbers pulled out of the air: "... more than 95 percent ... 0.6 probability ..."
One of many phrases that are probably pulled out of a document where those numbers are explained. Blame ZDNet on leaving out the link to the original work by mr Gartner.

Sheer idiocy: "... 95 percent (by volume in gigabytes) ..." (If it's a percentage, then why does the unit matter?)
Same as above. There are numbers that go with these phrases. The numbers are in gigabytes (duh) and the blame lies with the reporter Alexander Linden for not refering to the original document. The dork prolly just cut and paste without looking at the content.

Now if someone can be so good to find us the complete works of mr Gartner.

Re:HID!!

[SweetAndSourJesus]

No, I think he means HID as in Human Interface Device [loyola.edu]

Re:Digital Paper

[cybermace5]

I think it's just you. Demonstrable E-Ink displays already exist, how long do you think it will take to refine them?

And, why do we have exactly duplicate the feel of paper? E-Ink is supposed to duplicate the flexibility and static display capabilities of paper, while adding digital versatility. The feel of writing on paper is learned, not instinctive.

Finally, why does it have to be as cheap as paper? It's much better than paper, it has many more uses, but it makes no sense to feed E-Ink into a laser printer or to hang it next your toilet. Digital ink keeps you from having to buy paper all the time.

Re:Re push vs pull

[tomhudson]

What the article said, and what the author meant (looking in context) were two different things. Today, when you surf the web, you selectively pull data off servers. Push is a still-born technology that never made it, and never will, that feeds you data whether you want it or not. Think of a connection between your box and a server, where your box constantly receives updates (they're "pushed onto you whether you want them or not, sort of like windows updates that break your box").

Unfortunately, the article's author (or an editor) got the two terms mixed up (I guess when push comes to shove ... ) This is what we've all come to expect from Gartner and the other cloudy-crystal-ball-gazers.

How Bush and Reagan Armed Saddam: +1, Patriotic

[Anonymous Coward]

Read about how these patriots [whitehouse.org] armed Saddam here [democratic...ground.com]

Thanks and have a weekend.

Re:I'll change my interface device...

[Anonymous Coward]

I've had computer keyboards in my hands for 25+ years and never had problems (with my hands, that is). I've got a wireless keyboard and wireless optical mouse now that are just awesome. I can sit slumped on the couch in front of my trusty thinkpad and type in the worst posture possible. I'm sick and tired of safety nuts. There is a warning sticker on my iron that tells me not to submerse it in water while powered. Whatever happened to "evolution in action"? Car safety is completely different. Safety features in cars protect you from other drivers -- they don't prevent you from causing accidents.

Yeah, I do drive a Volvo V70

Not Niels Bohr

[infolib]

Here in Denmark the quote is usually attributed to Robert Storm Petersen. [latinamerican-art.com]
On the other hand this page [lundskov.dk] (in danish) says that it originated in a danish parliamentary debate of the period 1935-39. This is according to the memoirs of the politician K.K. Steincke. He doesn't remember who said it though. (Basic political instinct, I suppose.) It has also been attributed to Markus M. Ronner (whoever that is)

Niels Bohr was apparently the first dane to bring the expression abroad, and hence he has recieved credit.