Science Faction 305
tqft sent in this article about science fiction devices and concepts making it to the real world.
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"If I do not want others to quote me, I do not speak." -- Phil Wayne
Shortest Slashdot article ever? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Shortest Slashdot article ever? (Score:3, Informative)
That's because Star Trek: First Contact was playing on UPN tonight. You know there's no geeks on
Re:Shortest Slashdot article ever? (Score:4, Funny)
btw, did anyone notice the quasi-homoerotic moments between picard and worf? I hope future st movies will explore this aspect of their sexuality.
Re:Shortest Slashdot article ever? (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Shortest Slashdot article ever? (Score:2)
The Collector: (Score:5, Funny)
in the future (Score:5, Funny)
Wow... (Score:5, Insightful)
Does anyone really think that the early phones would have flipped open had Captain Kirk not done the same thing with his communicator in Star Trek? Just a thought.
JoeLinux
"They have us surrounded? Well, that simplifies things. Now we can shoot in ANY direction and hit them! Those bastards won't get away this time!" -- Chesty Puller, USMC
Re:Wow... (Score:5, Funny)
"Wow, that phone looks like it's from Star Trek. Beam me up, Scotty"
"You can actually beam up with it."
"What? How?"
"Just press star... and then 'trek'"
"..."
Re:Wow... (Score:5, Informative)
Short one, but not short enough to take the 1st prize.
The Build Your Own Bar Stool Racer [slashdot.org] story had a shorter topic.
The fact that I remember this is clearly a sign of way too many hours on this site.
Re:Wow... (Score:3, Insightful)
Yes, because folding a device in half is an obvious way to make a long device fit into your pocket. Carpenter rulers have been doing it for centuries.
Not a very good one.
I have one of these... (Score:5, Funny)
And in breaking news scientists have now developed an amazing device to prevent the firing of a gun via a small lever located on the side of the gun. Prior to firing the gun will automatically scan the lever on it's side to determine if the gun should fire. They've dubbed this lever "safety."
You didn't quite get it. (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:You didn't quite get it. (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:You didn't quite get it. (Score:2)
and it wont be happening soon....
a gun needs to be 100% reliable
A rant on smart guns. (Score:5, Interesting)
Their opinion comes down to basically guns need to be kept as simple as possible. That's been the major direction firearms technology has been taking for the last 50+ years; not making more complex weapons but simpler and cheaper weapons. A modern Glock handgun is cheaper, more reliable, and (most astonishingly!) has fewer moving parts than a revolver of 50 years ago. A modern SIG-Sauer is cheaper, more reliable, and has fewer moving parts than a 1908 Luger.
This trend--towards weapons which have fewer moving parts, fewer breakable parts, and are thus cheaper to manufacture and more reliable--has been overwhelmingly welcomed by shooters. It's been so welcomed that I don't know a single shooter who doesn't welcome it, and I've been shooting for 20 years. In fact, the only people I've ever seen advocate adding complexity to weapons are people who neither shoot for sport nor carry a weapon as part of their daily job.
What happens as soon as you add a fingerprint-recognition system to a firearm?
Well, first, you've got some kind of optical reader... how well does the optical reader work if you drop your gun in a mud puddle? I've dropped an M1911A1 in a bucket of mud before, pulled it out, given it two shakes to dislodge mud from the barrel, and gone through 21 rounds (three magazines) without a failure. I was spattered with mud and the gun was literally steaming by the end of it, but it fired perfectly--zero failures. Could I repeat that kind of reliability experiment with a fingerprint-reading gun? No? Okay, great. Your new smartgun is now less reliable in the face of hostile environments (like mud, water, etc.) than a pistol first designed in the early 1900s.
The next thing you need is some kind integrated circuit controller and wires between it and the optical reader. Do you know why there's been such a push towards simpler and simpler firearms designs? Because when you fire a semiautomatic pistol, parts of it are subjected to internal stresses of hundreds of G-forces and tens of thousands of pounds per square inch. It's not uncommon to have bullets loaded to generate 50,000 pounds per square inch. Take hundreds of G-forces and repeated exposure to huge overpressures and you get an environment which is very, very hostile to everything; the fewer moving parts you have, the fewer parts which can break. Can wires and integrated circuits be built which handle these things? Sure. An example would be the Army's Copperhead artillery system, which uses artillery shells with built-in integrated circuits. The question isn't "can we do it", though: the question is "do we want to be totally dependent on the circuit". If a load of Copperheads doesn't work, the artillery crew can just fall back on conventional high-explosive warheads--they're back in action almost immediately. If your smart gun doesn't work, you're best off throwing the gun at the bad guy. Big difference.
Third thing you need is a battery, because ICs don't run on nothing. Great. So now do you not only have to make sure that your gun is loaded, that a round is chambered, that all safeties are disengaged, you now also have to make sure that your battery hasn't run out? Most cops--the majority of them--shoot very rarely. They don't inspect their guns very often. They go to the range once a year (or however often their department requires that they qualify) and then they forget about the gun the other 364 days. You ever had a power outage and then discovered the batteries in your flashlight are out? Do you really want the same thing happening to your firearm when the bad guy is shooting at you, your life is on the line, and all you want to do is get home safely to your wife and kids?
... Also, take a look at how many cops are shot by criminals with their
Re:A rant on smart guns. (Score:2)
Then again, I'm one of the aforementioned people who don't own guns and don't use guns in their daily work. In fact, other than my father's hunting rifles, I've never actually fired a gu
Re:A rant on smart guns. (Score:2)
We are talking about police that operate in the urban enviroment, it worries me that police could be so careless with their guns that they might accidently find a puddle of mud and drop it in.
And it never rains in the city? (Score:4, Insightful)
some one shoots at you and you dive for cover behind a dumpster. where is your gun? still in your holster that is now in that nasty puddle of mud along with your leg and other equipment.
another fun place to be is cold where you need to wear gloves for extended periods of time to avoid frostbite, do you force the officer to stop and remove his gloves before he can return fire?
In my opinion fewer moving parts and simpler design is the way to go
Re:A rant on smart guns. (Score:2, Insightful)
It doesn't matter _squat_ if it's an obvious enough case of "Castle Doctrine" and the cops haul the body away and leave you your gun, even (unlikely
Also, not all states support castle doctrine, or only support it in a limited fashion - it pays to know the laws o
Re:A rant on smart guns. (Score:3, Insightful)
It's people like you who give gunowners like me a bad name. YOU NEED TO BE CAREFUL BECAUSE YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT TAKING A HUMAN LIFE, YOU DOORKNOB. This isn't something wherein you can say "whoops, my goof, sorry Frank, sure we've been friends for 30 years and sure your car broke down and sure you thought we were out of town and sure you came in using the house key we gave you 20 years ago, and sure you just wanted to use the phone. Tough shi
Re:You didn't quite get it. (Score:2, Funny)
!!!
As if cops don't have enough problems . . . just picture a tiny blue screen on a police revolver:
Cop 1: Crap!
Cop 2: Whas wrong?
Cop 1: Blue screen of Deaaaaargh!!!!!
Re:I have one of these... (Score:2)
Re:I have one of these... (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:I have one of these... (Score:2)
After watching Terminator last night, had all the guns had fingerprint sensors, Reese wouldn't have been able to use the shotgun he took to stop Arnold from killing Sarah in the club. That would mean no John Connor, which would mean either t
Since when is sci-fi defined by films? (Score:5, Insightful)
So three cheers for Heinlein, Asimov, Niven, Pournelle, Robinson, Bear, and the dozens of other great writers who have produced the body of works that I think of when I hear "sci-fi".
Cheers
And the best thing about those writers... (Score:4, Insightful)
They explore the cultural effects. And that, to me, is the best kind of science fiction.
If someone manages to create one of those devices, how will it affect my life?
Cell phones: Hang up and DRIVE you idiots. But now I can call anyone at any time without having to look for a pay phone. It makes it much easier to do things with your friends and to let them know you'll be late or the plans have changed.
eMail: Spammers should die and burn in Hell! But now I can stay in touch with people on the other side of the globe.
Especially as movies are 30 years behind... (Score:5, Interesting)
Comparing authors and the literature with directors and the SF movies...
Authors
- Know about the history of SF literature, including what has become stale or cliched.
- Must be aware of scientific developments of the past 40 years, especially if the author specializes in "Hard SF"
- Get help or critiques from other writers / scientists: many of the best SF writers are both (i.e. Benford, Vinge)
- Go to SF conventions where topics include recent discoveries in science, technology and medicine; bleeding edge new writers and concepts; and which new novels or short stories should get recognized via awards like the Hugo.
Directors and others involved in SF movies...- Get away with plots and backstory that were already old 30 years ago in the SF literature
- Don't seem to want to admit their relationship with / dependancy on the SF literature, so don't read or seek criticism from SF writers. (Anecdotal evidence- they rarely participate in regular SF conventions (instead going to Media Cons) and even more rarely hang out in the audience, listening and learning.)
- Don't know the state of the art in scientifically consistent (even if not plausible) technobabble. Apparently not aware of the evil overlord's rules [eviloverlord.com] and other long-known lists of cliches to avoid.
- Don't have any idea about recent SF writers. Nor do their critics, so as in this case the movie/TV show will always be compared to one of "Wells, Verne, Bradbury, Star Trek, Star Wars, Bladerunner (or rarely PKDick) and The Matrix," all nice but they could use some higher standards. Leads to critics calling movies like Harris's Fatherland ("ohhhh, what if Hitler *won* WWII?") original, because they don't know that the SF subfield of alternate history is decades old.
If the technologists have caught up to the literature, let's all go off to play a game of quantum soccer [netspace.net.au] with the other 10^16 posthumans in the multiverse (to give a nice 4 years old example from a state of the art author. I'd also recommend Dozois' "Year's Best Science Fiction" collections, Stross [antipope.org], McLeod, Vinge and most anything found in the best of the SF magazines [asimovs.com].)Re:Especially as movies are 30 years behind... (Score:2)
Since there are relatively few Big Name authors who make a full-time living writing SF, frequently hard SF writers work in a scientific field.
Don't seem to want to admit their relationship with / dependancy on the SF literature
It's sad, but there are really good legal reasons for them to have as little contact with SF literature as possible. If it can be shown that they had any con
no doubt (Score:5, Interesting)
didn't mention Moller and his flying car thingie...been test flown. (Heinlien, and others)
didn't mention those needleless injection thingies...sold by a variety of companies (Star Trek)
didn't mention clones...rumors of human tests (a running gag in sci-fi)
didn't mention PDA's...sold by retailers all over (Mentioned as pocket computers...Larry Niven/Jerry Pournelle 'The Mote in God's Eye' first published in 1974) Mote also made a couple of other subtle predictions besides everybody walking around with pocket computers, they also predicted that they would be wirelessly connected to nearby large databases...see wi-fi and a primitive internet/web-services kinda thing.
I can't think of anymore, I'm sure someone will
Re:no doubt (Score:2)
As I recall, NASA already had a needle-less injector, (How do you inject someone in a spacesuit and you can't get to their arm?) and that's where the Trek people got the idea. Of course, taking a recent development and extrapolating future common use is good SF too.
Re:Since when is sci-fi defined by films? (Score:2)
*WHY*?
When I was reading the Robot series, I couldn't put it down.
Re:Since when is sci-fi defined by films? (Score:2)
Don't forget Clarke. The first popular treatment of a space elevator (with a carbon-based cable, no less!) was Arthur C. Clarke's Fountains of Paradise, published in 1978.
Granted, he got the idea from Y.N. Artsutanov (Komsomalskaya Pravda, 31 July, 1968), but nobody but Russian (er, Soviet) scientists would have read that
Re: (Score:2)
Imagination = Technology (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Imagination = Technology (Score:2)
Stuff from SF we should have. (Score:5, Interesting)
-
Better energy sources. There hasn't been a new primary energy source in fifty years. All we have is better oil drilling technology.
-
Spacecraft that are actually useful. What we have now is minor improvements on 1960s technology, with the same miserable fuel to payload ratios and insanely high operating costs.
-
Robots and AI. We do not have a clue how to do this.
We're not making much progress on any of this, either. 25 years ago, all those goals were thought to be closer than they are now.Worse, those aren't fields that good young people go into any more. Who goes into fusion research, or booster design, or even AI?
Re:Stuff from SF we should have. (Score:2)
Re:Stuff from SF we should have. (Score:2)
Well, the flying car [moller.com] may not be as far off as you think.
Of course, I'll believe it when I see it.
Re:Stuff from SF we should have. (Score:4, Informative)
You can buy a 100Kg ultralight helicopter. [rotor.com] That's real.
Another thing that should be working by now, and isn't, is turbines for small aircraft. Light aircraft are still putt-putting around on reciprocating engines, decades after the big iron switched over.
Re:Stuff from SF we should have. (Score:2)
As I recall , scaling from bigger to smaller turbines doesn't work very well as losses from the edges of your fantips are proportionally higher to the total engine output. Seems like a real cow of a problem to solve, too.
Re:Stuff from SF we should have. (Score:2)
A turbofan/turbojet on a light aircraft would be a waste at those low speeds.
Kids like me (Score:2)
I have been involved in science and radical theories since I was a wee lad (some say I still am
The factor keeping innovation out of
Re:Stuff from SF we should have. (Score:2)
Short answer: Nobody.
Why: Because nobody'll hire kids to go into any of the above.
I'm still waiting. (Score:5, Funny)
On (in?) the other hand, which sci-fi novel predicted USB powered dildos?
Re:I'm still waiting. (Score:2, Interesting)
There's lots of this now (Score:3, Insightful)
Ion engines existed before 1977, and Star Wars (Score:2)
Re:There's lots of this now (Score:2)
Using NMR as an imaging technology existed before Star Trek. Sorry.
'real' VR devices existed before the holodeck (Score:4, Informative)
when Star Trek's "holodeck" appeared, it bore no resemblance to anything tangible. These days it is known as the precursor of augmented/virtual reality applications such as virtual surgery or holographic simulation training programs
hmm...
In fact, although the holodeck-like CAVE [uic.edu] was introduced in 1992 - 5 years after [startrek.com] ST:NG's debut, VR systems had been around a few years already.
For example, Lanier's VPL had the first commercial interface gloves (1984). head mounted displays (1987), and networked virtual world system (1989) [wamc.org].
Re:'real' VR devices existed before the holodeck (Score:2)
History of virtual reality (Score:3, Informative)
Sadly, I haven't yet found a good site on the history of VR.
But this one [uiuc.edu] claims that the idea already existed back in the 1950s.
More info - Ivan Sutherland (Score:3, Informative)
Here's a biography [berkeley.edu] and here's a link [artmuseum.net]
with one more image of a HMD.
Total Recall (Score:3, Insightful)
My favorite thing about Total Recall now is the fact that the movie never says whether Arnie is still in a vacation or not. He uses Rekall to acquire a vacation where he's a secret agent who saves Mars. He then wakes up, realizes he IS a secret agent, and then goes to save Mars.
Perhaps five minutes after the credits roll, he wakes up, and pays Rekall for his most-excellent 'vacation.'
Re:Total Recall (Score:2)
Just look at Do Andriods Dream of Electic Sheep (cut down to Blade Runner) explores the meaning of being human. It is a shame that movie touched so lightly in this subject.
Re:Total Recall (Score:2)
Seems like a lot of people are still confused about whether the movie is supposed to be a "dream" or not, but the quick shot of the Martian Reactor pretty much settles it. Furthermore, the psychiatrist who shows up at Brubaker's hotel room seals the deal and announces the real theme of the movie - which is somewhat self-referentially about mass entertainment - you'll the hero, the spy, a friend of the governer, but in reality you're just sitting in your chair, lobotomized.
The psychiatrist states that if
prior art? patents? (Score:3, Insightful)
Conversely, when are science fiction writers going to start taking out patents prior to publishing their writings?
Re:prior art? patents? (Score:2)
Re:prior art? patents? (Score:2)
Re:prior art? patents? (Score:3, Insightful)
Is "science faction" a play on words... (Score:2)
...or a standard Slashdot editor misspelling?
If it's a play on words, someone clue me in. I don't get it.
Re:Is "science faction" a play on words... (Score:2)
What about OSS? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:What about OSS? (Score:2)
Re:What about OSS? (Score:2)
DVD featured in Robocop, CRTs in 2001 (Score:3, Insightful)
Okay, it wouldn't have been called a DVD back then, but I suddenly remembered how the first time I saw that movie in the late 80s, I thought, "That's what we want, movies on CD discs!".
And now we have them.
Watching that scene again, and seeing how offhandedly the disc was used, I realized that in a few years people will probably watch that scene and not even *realize* that back then we had to use infernal video tape, that these movie-on-a-disc things didn't exist, and the whole setup was an attempt to look like "the not too distant future"!
But I'm guilty of this, too - take the computer screens in featured in 2001. None of them were real - they were all projected onto the surface from projectors mounted inside the desks/consoles/whatever. I never realized that until I saw a "making of" documentary on 2001. Now, I'm not sure if either CRTs weren't used with computers back then, or they were just way too expensive for the film's budget, or what, but I had never even *considered* that they might not be real, live screens until I saw that documentary.
CRT's?? (Score:2)
Televisions pre-date 2001 by at least 20 years. Using one with a computer was common by the 1960s.
Dick (Score:3, Funny)
Minority Report Accuracy? (Score:3, Interesting)
Yeah. Existing technologies. Especially the part about the coked-out siblings who see the future through disturbances created by murders in the metaphysical plane. I bet Spielberg really researched that one, too.
Nitpicker (Score:2)
Re:Nitpicker (Score:2)
Perhaps science fiction's most important invention (Score:2, Funny)
in the service of resolving story points
that actually require some real
human problem solving. Many Star Trek
TV episodes feature this piece of technology.
Independence Day and countless other blockbuster
films do, too.
The Plot Device has a real world counterpart.
It's embodied in all of our technology,
and all of our faith in technology to solve
the problems of Nature's and Man's ma
Re:Perhaps science fiction's most important invent (Score:2)
For the Greeks, Deus Ex Machina always worked.
For us, the damn thing is broken, and Moriarty is about to leave the holodeck.
Device from "Weird Science" (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Device from "Weird Science" (Score:2)
Still waiting on those flying cars.. (Score:2)
So I'll ask again now as this question has dissapeared from the radar for a few years, are we going to be seeing flying cars soon or what?
Homeland Defense Utilizes Futuristic Technologies (Score:2)
it's not like this is really news... (Score:5, Interesting)
The waterbed (Heinlein, I believe)
The microwave oven (Heinlein) (has a one-paragraph joke about how hard cooking and cleanup are.... something along the line of "I pushed the button, you toss the dishes in the disposer." For 1950s-era writing, this was a powerful insight just tossed away as a cute joke.)
Waldoes (Heinlein: the short story "Waldo", about a brilliant but incredibly weak man who lives in orbit and uses remote manipulators for everything) Even the modern *name* of these manipulators comes from the story.
Geostationary satellites (Clarke) -- This was an amazing insight for the time -- it's one of those things that's retroactively obvious, but exceedingly difficult to invent.
Virtual Reality -- I think possibly Clifford Simak had the first written version of something like a Holodeck. The book was "Way Station", published in 1963. Aliens had set up a waypost on Earth, and had hired an Earthling to run it. He got to play with some amazing technology. The virtual reality thing was a room-sized hunting simulator where he fired real shells at projected images on a wall, and they reacted appropriately. It was described as being extremely real and very frightening. This story was also my first exposure to the concept of a frictionless surface, which obviously remains fantasy at this point. I imagine frictionless surfaces were done before this, but this is the earliest example I can remember for something holo-deckish.
Cell phones -- Dick Tracy, in the 1930s, had a pretty fair approximation. People wanted those wrist radios in the worst way. As it turns out, that form factor isn't too popular, but the fundamental idea has become indispensable for most first-world citizens, and the basic idea came from comics.
Submarines -- This is a little more of a stretch, but 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea showed just what submarines might someday be. It was published in 1870, which is a little after the first submersible warships were designed, so the concept wasn't quite as groundbreaking as some of these others, but the story is worth a nod when you consider they're STILL doing remakes of it -- 130 years later!
And, of course, there's the Time Machine, by H.G. Wells, another one that's a perennial favorite for remakes. This is one of my favorites, not because of the time machine (still unproven and most likely impossible), but because of the social commentary. We've had numerous Morlocks versus Eloi threads here on Slashdot, so it's not just me that finds the parallels a bit creepy. It was published in 1898 and is still quite relevant.
Most modern SF doesn't look very far ahead. It's rare for authors to invent things that are *really* amazing and inventive. Greg Bear's "Blood Music" was probably in this caliber, and Gene Wolfe wrote a disturbing book about a society where people encouraged themselves to become schizophrenic as a method of tapping into more of their brainpower. (I think it may have been called "The Book of the New Sun", but that might be another novel by the same author.) Both were fascinating books... but did they really change anything?
Perhaps I'm being unfair, too -- I'm picking out the very best of the old stuff and comparing it to the run-of-the-mill schlock today. But, even so, it seems that SF authors back in the 50s and 60s truly changed the world, and the ones nowadays don't do that. They entertain, they challenge, they make us think about things.... but they don't come up with things that change how we live anymore.
I'd love to be proven wrong on this -- counterexamples welcome. :-)
Re:it's not like this is really news... (Score:3, Insightful)
Even if they did accurately predict some gizmos, they were incredibly funny with completely false expectations on how people will use them. Take computers and networking - as far as I know, nobody - NOBODY! - guessed that the network will be used to distribute pr0n. What were they thinking? It was so easy to guess. After all, the first pornographical photos were taken on the first Daguerre machines, back in 1860's. First porno movies were
Re:it's not like this is really news... (Score:3, Informative)
Actually, I would guess that any new communications technology will be quickly adapted for pornography. It started with the Gutenberg press and movable type, things have continued that way to
Re:it's not like this is really news... (Score:2, Insightful)
Clarke submitted the satellite idea as an academic brief to Wireless World in his capacity as an RAF electronics engineer. A primitive submarine was used in a failed attack on the British fleet in New York Harbor during the American Revolution. The microwave oven came out of an accident that melted a chocolate bar at a Raytheon lab in 1946. DT's wrist radio was just a small walkie talkie, not a precisely channeled cell phone.
When scifi ideas do beat inventions to the punch, it's usually because i
Re:it's not like this is really news... (Score:2, Informative)
I think Clarke gets credit for this one too. The book "The City and the Stars" opens with Alvin & friends playing a total immersion VR adventure game. They're even doing so using distributed networking, since Alvin doesn't even know where some of his friends live. TC&TS was published in 1953.
The W3 (brief nod to Imperial Earth) (Score:3, Insightful)
(There's a parallel scene in his novel 2010 with nothing more than a scrap of paper flying out of an unsealed airlock and into space: was it a message from long-dead astronauts? The parallel is the fragility of the means of communication.)
Now the Offtopic part
I remember in late 1993 seeing my first web browser (Mosaic, at a friend's work, EDS in St. Louis), and learning HTML. I was desparate to convince my friends about the importance of this new technology...'You "click" what?' I wondered if the web would ever catch on for real, and desparately wanted it to. It was so cool, but so obscure. I mean, you'd have to have GUI-based computers in every home, and cheap servers outside the domain of academia in order for something like the web to take off, n'est pas?
A year or so passes and every single billboard and TV ad has a URL plastered on it.
Of course I was pleased at the success of the web (and to be "in the know" relatively early.) But I was actually, irrationally, a little sad that it was suddenly everywhere and everyone knew about it, if not exactly how it worked. Very technocratic attitude, and I'm a little bit ashamed of it. To put me back in my place, I can recall reading the early HTML 1.1 specification (that defined FORM data) and thinking "This documentation isn't very well written...people are never gonna go for these forms!"
In the hacker parlance I believe this is called pulling a "vannevar."
I suppose the relative inanity of most web sites was a factor too. "99% of anything is crap." (Sturgeon's Law...maybe that's the real Science Fiction principle that we should examine for its predictive success.)
There Is No Singularity (Score:3, Interesting)
Neanderthals could not envision a written word, although the Egyptians could. But the Egyptians could not envision movable type; eventually Gutenburg did. For Gutenburg, a "computer" refered to a person doing math, and was not a machine. In the '70s as computers began marching into many businesses, people cosidered cloning, quantum computing, nanotechnology, and many other things "sci fi" -- and yet they are developing now, for potential release within our lifetimes.
The pace of change over the past 100 years makes me unwilling to forecast what would come 50 or 100 years from now. Indeed, to the Neanderthal, Egyptian or even Gutenburg, the pace of our change would be beyond their tech horizon: their world was far more static and unchanging. Yet the changes over the past year -- or over the past 50 years -- have not overwhelming. The so-called "technological singularity" is not an event horizon, a point-of-no-return beyond which all natural law changes, but a traditional horizon, a permanently receeding point beyond which our future predictions become rapidly more hazy. This article helps show that we will always be able to see some distance ahead, be it only a few decades, and the change will not become instantly overwhelming. Indeed, the pace of change is limited by the ability of society to teach new thinkers what is currently the state-of-art level, and whatever technologies we invent to increase the pace of learning will also assist in increasing the pace of acclimation.
Movies? Everything except them! (Score:2)
First of all, this article isn't so much about accurately predicting the future, so much as creating it. SF has been giving us the vocabulary and conceptual framework for many of our modern inventions. If what we invent is similar but differently implemented than the idea of an SF writer from 40 years ago, it's not that they got it wrong--it's merely that we took the concept in a different direction than they did, when then invented the concept.
Secondly, this article goes on about movies,
There are lots of things that came our way (Score:3, Insightful)
Some of you mentioned Jules Verne - he dreamed up submarines and travelling to the moon. He even predicted weightlessness, albeit for the incorrect reason. (He assumed that somewhere between the moon and the earth the gravitational fields would cancel each other out.) Well, we have both - we have submarines and we've been to the moon.
Colonies on the moon? We don't have those, but we have had space stations for decades now, such as Skylab, Mir, and now the ISS. We might even be travelling to Mars within a decade or two, and whoever goes there are going to stay on Mars for a few months.
Johnny Mnemonic / Neuromancer? We're headed that way - researchers are working on connecting computer chips directly to the brain stem to enable completely paralyzed people to robotic arms and computers so they can communicate more easily and manipulate objects.
Alternative energy sources? Several of you claim that there is no work done on these - that's patently untrue. If you would care to read a trade magazine such as Mechanical Engineering you'll find that solar energy, wind energy, and even fusion power receives more and more funding, and at the very least receives constant attention from the engineering societies.
Alternative energy sources and reclaiming waste energy such as waste heat and methane from landfills are becoming more and more prevalent, but right now are used mostly in "niche" applications where the average Joe does not see them - so the perception is that we're only using oil for energy.
And on the topic of Sci-Fi energy sources - Nuclear Power? Isn't that Sci-Fi? Although a nuclear power plant is in principle a very fancy egg boiler.
The internet? Repositories of information available from any computer anywhere? This was not Sci-Fi? In short, the means of communication that we have available now compared to what we had a few decades ago? PDAs, cell phones with internet access, Wi-Fi ?
How about GPS? You can be dropped anywhere on the planet and in an instant find out where you actually ARE. With a satellite phone and a laptop you can even pull up maps and find your way to where you're going. As one of the engineers in charge of developing GPS for the military said in an interview, "This generation may be the last one to know what it means to be lost"
So we don't yet have the holodeck or the matter transference beams, big deal. A lot of what was Sci-Fi a few decades is a reality today, but we fail to appreciate most of it.
My letter to the publishing paper. (Score:2, Interesting)
In your July 5th article titled; Science Faction, by Fiona Williams, it was described how science fiction has influenced current day technology. First of all, "Really!? Wow, nobody would have ever realized that!" Duh... What really gets my goat however is that the author (and by association your publication) seems to be completely clueless as to what science fiction IS. The author spent the entire article taking about the effect of 'movies', as if that was what the field of science fiction
Re:Vehicle that runs on bad news (Score:3, Funny)
I bet Tom Ridge has one. "Red" actually means "Alaska is starting to run dry, but I won't give up my SUV."
Re:Vehicle that runs on bad news (Score:2)
Get your SciFi right (Score:4, Interesting)
Minority Report (no "the") is a semi-distopia wherein predictive science has become exact and law enforcement is able to convict people before they commit their crimes. It's more a tale of the overzealousnes of technology than a horror report about the advance of technology--hell, even 1984 was about 'tech.
The "total awareness" of Minority Report wasn't even that bad--I mean, the main character was able to move about fairly easy given that an APB was out for him, and he even managed to foil the entire system, too.
Don't worry about Big Brother or Future Crime, though--they'd both be government programs, which, at least in America, are both amazingly conservative in design and embarissingly inefficient in implementation. (Note that, even though we have a brand-new national alert level, there are no laws or funding programs for local response to the increased level.)
Re:Get your SciFi right (Score:3, Insightful)
Everyone knows this. Perhaps you should re-read it. It is not communism's penchant for rewriting history on political whim that has a negative effect on the characters of the novel. It is "Big Brother's" invasive authority to regulate "thought crimes" that ends up as the undoing of the protagonist. Does that sound like another sci-fi story you can think of?
It's more a tale of the overzealousnes of technology than a horror report about the advance of technology What? They a
Re:Get your SciFi right (Score:4, Informative)
In 1984, there is no means by which Big Brother and the Party are actually able to know what you're thinking besides subtle clues. Granted, they keep you under nearly complete surveillence, but they're still guessing based on educated analysis of your behavior. The disturbing part is not supposed to be the observation, but instead the ability of the Party to essentially arbitrarily determine that you were a Thought Criminal. Because of this, all behaviors that might even seem innapropriate needed to be avoided, thus crippling human society.
Minority Report, on the other hand (both in the short story, and the movie), includes the accurate ability to scientifically predict significant aspects of the future. In the short story, three retarded precogs perpetually mumble and gurble snippets of truth about the future, with computers analyzing their output then proceeding to produce cards which tell the police who is going to commit a particular crime. In the movie, the precogs are not retarded, and have their direct premonitions of the future projected/recorded into an audio-visual format for outside viewers. In both cases, the police know, factually, that until they interfere that the perpetrator will [so long as all three precogs agree] commit that crime. The story, thus, is about whether or not there really is destiny, and whether or not you can change it regardless of whether you know its coming. The "big brother"-like aspects, wherein people are "ret-scanned" when walking along the street, etc. are not intended as being oppressive. In fact, it doesn't seem that they're even government administered since their effects are primarily commercial. We see the police access the tracking information, but its entirely possible that they required a warrant (which the evidence from the precogs would provide) to access that otherwise secure private system, along the lines of a phone tap. As mentioned earlier, the protagonist completely circumvents the system at several points: it is not big brother. As to your false claim that the story is a warning of tyrranical governments, you've clearly never read the story and seem never to have seen the movie. The story ends with perfect correspondence between the predictions and events, despite attempts by several people to distort the future based on knowing its course. The message is that destiny is completely written (which parallels many of Dick's other short stories involving precognition and time travel), and includes precisely zero attempt to portray it as "wrong" to arrest people for precognitive crimes. The movie also confirms the precog abilities by and large, but claims that there are sometimes "minority reports" wherein the precogs disagree. However, as also stated, the female of the trio is always correct, so the point is meaningless; it just states that the males are imperfect precogs. It includes zero instances of the government doing anything that oppresses rights or corruptly extends beyond the legal limits of the precog system. The only possible case of this is the corrupt and criminal head of precrime, who is removed when this is discovered. Moreover, his own system discovered him! You just seem to want the story to be about your perspective...
Re:Get your SciFi right (Score:4, Informative)
Not quite. It was a warning that communism's enemies in the west (the democracies) could easily make themselves into what they fought.
The spectre of 'Big Brother' is slightly ridiculous now, thanks in some part to the warning that '1984' gave us.
Re:Get your SciFi right (Score:2)
I'm not sure if you're actually disagreeing with what the parent post had said, i.e. that communism had conquered the world. If what you're saying is that in "1984" the West had become communist, but not through military conquest, then it seems to me that you're right. Here's a little excerpt from chapter 5, which clearly describes the West (Oceania) as being communist:
Re:Get your SciFi right (Score:2)
Yeah, because we don't have governments that try to watch what we're doing all the time. We don't have governments that change allegience with foreign governments, or dictatorships, on a whim. We don't have people being whisked away to imprisonment and torture without being charged with a crime or given due process. And we certainly don't have governments that lie to us or make false claims to
Re:Get your SciFi right (Score:5, Informative)
(And it's a dystopia, not a distopia).
"Don't worry about Big Brother" because it'd be embarrassingly inefficient? I don't want to be subjected to embarrassingly inefficient state voyeurism, either. So I still do worry.
Re:Get your SciFi right (Score:3, Interesting)
If you can read 1984 (inc. the Newspeak appendix) and come away with the impression that the names of things tell you what they are, you have a problem. Maybe the Ministry of Love can help you sort it out...
To quote Immanuel Goldstein's Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism:
Re:Wow, michael (Score:3, Insightful)
BTW an On Topic.
Sci-fi gives us the impetus we need to actually get off our duffs and INVENT. It's not surprising that stuff once mentioned in SF is now making its appearance on our Earth.
Rockets anyone?
-uso.
Flying Car? (Score:2, Funny)
Yeh I can just see it 3am the bar closes and 29 drunken rednecks proceed to try to take off from the parking lot.
Re:The Wonderful Future (Score:4, Interesting)
No, your line will not work. Yes, it can work when the unemployed to employed ratio is low.
What will HAVE to happen is companies will just give up trying to make their fortunes selling stuff to the masses. They will have to focus on making the rich happy.
Rich people, at some point, will have to either start spending their money (become real consumers), or losing it. For example, there is NO point is speding much money in investment projects right now. You have extra capacity. What you need is consumers. So you need the rich to start spending their money, and thus employing the uhg, unemployed.
You could think an extreme case: let's say Bill Whatever discovers a machine that can materilize whatever, anywhere, with zero cost, and that how the machine works it's a trade secret. What happens? Nobody can compete. So at first, every consumer buys from Bill Whatever.
If Bill Whatever doesn't spend his income, you have a problem. Suppose he puts it at a bank, and offers loans to consumers. Great! The weel keeps moving for a while. After some time, what??
No, Bill Whatever MUST spend his money in some way, he has to demand something back from everyone else in this world. But he can't stop the world. In this case the goverment can start printing paper and giving it to people for free, at which point Bill Whatever starts to feel the pressure to hire people.
The economy is trade, if few people have a lot, and they do not want to trade good for goods (read: demand services for their own consumption), only goods for money, the wheel stops, and you'll have the goverment expanding credit as a short term solution, then raising taxes, then..going into panic more, and after that, making a case to move to put rich people in line with reality (that is, making war, fear of losing everything for everyone inside their country).
That's what a recesion is. Tax increases do not solve the issue. Only wealth taxes would, or enforced consumption of the ones that have purchasing power (or you could just print money if there was a single world currency).
But the world having countries doesn't help, money moves very fast from country to country.
So...
The real question really is, if we ever reach a point where we don't need everyone to work so that there is anough food and houses, why the heck would you need capitalism? I don't mean comunism, but why capitalism? If things are NOT scarce, economic rules do not aplly, and you only have "laws" of who owns what, and will shape the world we'll live in. The economy years are counted. This century is about the law...we are already seing this with stupid patents and laws like DMCA, Patrio-t Act, etc.