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The Almighty Buck Technology

Tech Titans Prepare to Battle Over Next DVD Format 453

securitas writes "The New York Times Technology has an excellent feature by Ken Belson about the coming battle over the next-generation DVD format that consumer electronics and technology giants are already preparing for. The article covers the (high-definition) HD DVD group, led by Toshiba and NEC, and the Blu-ray Group, led by Sony and Matsushita (Panasonic/JVC). Mass production is expected to begin in 2005, but both sides are expected to show prototypes and aggresively pursue partners at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas next week. Add to the mix a nine-company Chinese faction that says it will develop its own DVD format because - fearing their technology could be used by Chinese rivals - the Japanese manufacturers haven't shared much information, even within the DVD Forum. Finally, Disney, Microsoft, IBM and Intel have yet to weigh in. The worst thing that could happen would be another Betamax/VHS-type war. In that case, 'Everyone is a loser, particularly Hollywood studios, the retailer community and, most importantly, the consumer,' says Warren N. Lieberfarb, developer of the original DVD format."
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Tech Titans Prepare to Battle Over Next DVD Format

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  • by Lonesome Squash ( 676652 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @09:50AM (#7827123)
    I must admit I'm rooting for the Chinese faction. I want a digital standard that's NOT written by the content owners. If they can make a next-gen DVD that's cheap and recordable, and it gets into enough homes, then maybe it will be to the studios' advantage to release content for it, even if they can't have complete control over it.
  • by Ubergrendle ( 531719 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @09:52AM (#7827132) Journal
    If the new DVD formats being recommended aren't as 'open', and do not present a sizeable improvement over the current resolution of existing DVDs, I don't think that one conglomerate will be able to 'force' the market place into accepting a new tech.

    Lucas and Speilberg weren't able to make their DVD alternative fly, and given their back catalogue of movies held in reserve, they had strong leverage over the marketplace.

    Given that DVDs have an indefinite shelf life (okay, greater than 20 years) and better than broadcast resolution , I don't think people will see a compelling reason to upgrade. Maybe when HDTV becomes ubiquitous, but even then a really good DVD rig comes close to the HD broadcasts I've seen.

    Let the industry duke it out...I won't need to worry for ~ 10 years.
  • Re:FWIW (Score:1, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:00AM (#7827163)
    2 lasers that would solve compatibility.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:04AM (#7827177)
    >Unless they stop releasing movies on the current DVD format, it may sound crazy
    >but I wouldn't put it past the studio's. ...past the studio's what?

    Seriously, of course they'll stop producing DVDs at some point in the future - the only question is when, and why.
  • by fnj ( 64210 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:08AM (#7827200)
    "Your[e] OLD player will still work." [Flames deleted]

    My first thought was similar to this, but I quickly thought better of it.

    1) Maybe he could sell his old player on ebay and reduce his investment if only the new player is compatible.

    2) Not everyone has the room to keep two players in service.

    3) The old player will crap out at some point. The point is that he will have to maintain two players in service.
  • by at_18 ( 224304 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:15AM (#7827249) Journal
    Everyone is a loser, particularly Hollywood studios, the retailer community and, most importantly, the consumer,

    The consumer has already lost when he's called a consumer instead of a citizen. This mindset speaks volumes.
  • Uh.... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Jeff DeMaagd ( 2015 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:20AM (#7827263) Homepage Journal
    The compatibility mostly works into the pressing plant's advantage. Players can have an extra reader laser, which I suppose would cost a bit more.

    I really don't buy the compatibility argument. VCD isn't necessarily compatible with DVD, but most players have it. CD-R/RW isn't compatible with DVD lasers, but most DVD players can read them now because the makers put in an extra laser of the right wavelength. I highly doubt any next-generation hardware player would drop DVD.
  • by budhaboy ( 717823 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:23AM (#7827282)
    yeah, but the DVD had "a sizeable improvement over the current resolution of existing [VHS format]" They also offered WAY more content that a VHS, as well as longevity that a VHS had, not to mention more favorable licensing to lower the price... It was a complete no-brainer that the DVD would smoke the VHS.

    His point is, what more could a new DVD offer over existing? Certainly not enough to cause people to drop their current Players, and titles.
  • by KingDaveRa ( 620784 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:26AM (#7827292) Homepage
    They're doing this at the wrong time. If this is meant to compliment DVD, fair enough, but if its a replacement, then this is stupid. The public is only now embracing DVD big time, buying a DVD player for every TV and replacing their Video collection with DVDs, and now the major companies are going to dump a new format on us? How about backward compatability? I thought the DVD standard was pretty good as was, and I'm pretty fussy about these things.
  • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:30AM (#7827321)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by kfg ( 145172 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:32AM (#7827329)
    A "consumer" may well not be a citizen, which is a legal definition.

    I prefer customer. It's the correct word for the transaction, bearing implicitly the true nature of the business relationship.

    Indeed the term consumer was coined to obfuscate this fact, making it easy to view the customer as a faceless statistic and a mark to be fleeced, rather than the power holder to be courted and served.

    And the term is just as insulting as mark, pigeon or rube.

    KFG
  • Re:I Hope (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Ryosen ( 234440 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:32AM (#7827334)
    It's inevitable that this will lead to a standardized format, but there will be losers on all sides, most notably the consumers. I'm not thinking of CSS-cracking, dvd-ripping type stuff but the draconian measures that are already in place with the current technology. (Actually, I'm not at allconcerned with "backing up" my DVDs and I'm not interested in starting that argument here, fair use or not. I'm sure someone else will be more than willing to pick up that gauntlet).

    There are a couple of things here that concern me. First, no doubt the manufacturers have learned quite a few lessons since the introduction of the DVD format years ago. Region coding makes money but only if you can prevent regionless players, copy protection makes money but only if you can prevent its circumvention, and adverts make money but only if you can prevent the consumer from circumventing them. I have every bit of confidence that, whatever the prevailing format, there will be some convoluted region and encryption scheme and the remote controls for the players won't have a fast-forward button. However, not all will be lost. I'm sure that they will leave the Rewind button intact so that you can watch the adverts over and over again.

    On second thought, I have to disagree with the parent poster. I hope that this doesn't lead to a standardized format. Instead, here's hoping that it drags these morons and their cyclical attempts to introduce a new technology platform every 10 years so as to force us to continue replacing our copies of movies with the latest and greatest versions right into the firey abyss from whence they originated. Is anyone actually buying DVD-A or SCD?

    The thing that concerns me the most, tho, is the possibilitiy that the movie companies will force the adoption of the newer formats by refusing to release newer or higher-profile titles. And to stave off the inevitable VHS-to-DVD analogies, DVD was a quantum leap over VHS in terms of quality and content. What is being proposed here is merely an evolution, and a small one at that.

    What benefit will the next generation of DVD offer to consumers? HDTV? Please, this is another farce being shoved down the collective throats of Americans (and other countries?). The very idea that a society is going to be mandated to replace their televisions is absolutely insane. Again, what benefit does this offer to the consumer by making it mandatory? Now, compare that benefit to how it benefits the entertainment industry. What does the consumer gain by the introduction of the "copy bit"?

    I've probably gone horribly off-track with this post so I'll sum it up with this: the parent post is not a troll.
  • Here we go again (Score:5, Insightful)

    by StrawberryFrog ( 67065 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:35AM (#7827348) Homepage Journal
    Hollywood is pushing both technical groups to come up with new security measures to protect their movies. Neither group has developed a prototype that satisfies the movie industry - a major impediment to a commercial launch.

    *sigh* Here we go again, for another round of macrovision, region coding and suchlike rubbish. I confidently predict(1) that the new measures will not make any difference to large-scale pirates or warez d00ds, but will make everyone else's life difficult.

    1): What do I know about it? not much.
  • by Ubergrendle ( 531719 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:38AM (#7827367) Journal
    Speilberg and Lucas were big supporters of DIVX, a closed proprietary alternative to DVDs. They were keen on the 'limited viewing' feature, for example paying $5 to watch the DVD for 48 hours, then you dispose of the disc. It was ugly, people stayed away in droves.

    But until recently Lucasfilm and Amblin entertainment wouldn't release titles on DVD. Hell, its only this Christmas that Indiana Jones has finally been release.
  • by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:44AM (#7827389)

    Gawd, yes. It pisses me off no end that I have to wait 30-60 seconds after loading a DVD just to get to the main menu - which is usually also locked so I have to watch a stupid video sequence before I can finally select 'Play'.

    Is it so unreasonable to want to load a DVD and watch the damn movie? Seriously, if there was a DVD player out there that advertised on the box "No function lockouts", I'd pay an extra $50 just for that.

  • Re:I Hope (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Randolpho ( 628485 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:50AM (#7827426) Homepage Journal
    Let me modify that for you. I hope this leads, in the end, to a *good* standardized format.

    Unfortunately, not all standardized formats are the best -- just look at VHS vs Betamax in the old days. Not a single person who knows the formats will tell you differently: Betamax was the better format. Yet VHS won; it set the standard.
  • by News for nerds ( 448130 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @10:55AM (#7827450) Homepage
    >If I was a studio executive or a some manufacturer I'd support the Chinese.

    Unless Chinese can offer good copyright protection scheme "studio executive" won't do that.
  • by zoeblade ( 600058 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @11:24AM (#7827597) Homepage

    If the new DVD formats being recommended aren't as 'open', and do not present a sizeable improvement over the current resolution of existing DVDs, I don't think that one conglomerate will be able to 'force' the market place into accepting a new tech.

    I didn't think most consumers cared much about anything other than price, picture quality and sound quality. All the non-geeks I've spoken to haven't even heard of different regions and don't know which DVD region they live in, let alone care about price fixing and encrypted content that can't legally (or is it legal now? I've lost track) be viewed on free players. Which is a shame, as I'd like to see the next big format use Ogg Theora [theora.org] or Tarkin, but it's not going to happen, sadly...

  • Why? (Score:2, Insightful)

    by CarrionBird ( 589738 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @11:45AM (#7827732) Journal
    Only a tiny fraction has a TV high end enough to take advantage of current DVDs (progrsssive scan). How many people out there are gonna drop the cash for 1. a HDTV 2. a DVD2 player 3. A new moive collection.

    It's like SACD, I' sure you can tell the differnce if you really try (on better speakers than most people have), but the advantge is so negligable that it's not worth buying for the 80%+ of people who aren't shopping on the uber high end area.

    Makes me miss Laserdisc; it had near DVD quality, there was no menu/preview crap on most of them, no copyguard/region code/player restriction crap.

    DVD is good quality, but we've lost so much control due to the "unprecidented (sp?) co-operation" between the studios and the engineers.

  • by Nogami_Saeko ( 466595 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @12:21PM (#7827973)
    I suspect that the new HD-DVD players will be able to downconvert the signal to standard def internally to be compatible with existing systems.

    Big studios are really keen on replacing DVDs with something with much better encryption/copy protection - the shift to HD is incidental.

    So they release new players that can handle HD as well as SD and can output to either type of monitor - let the price drop for a few years until it's in the $300-500 range, then completely stop producing regular DVDs to force people to upgrade to a new format which has far stronger encryption and more control for the studios.

    They aren't in this to do any favors for their customers...

    N.
  • by DarkVader ( 121278 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @12:22PM (#7827986)
    Which sounds remarkably like restraint of trade to me.

    If it's cheaper to re-import the product, why shouldn't they be able to do so?

    And if the manufacturer wants to make it more difficult, why shouldn't I be able to produce a product legally that would allow me to do so?

    In fact, why shouldn't the attempted restraint on trade be illegal in the first place?
  • by Ayanami Rei ( 621112 ) * <rayanami@NospaM.gmail.com> on Monday December 29, 2003 @12:28PM (#7828020) Journal
    DVDs were designed to be generic RO media for storing various data, not just for use in set-top video players. Thus the choice for what IS an entirely PC-friendly format. (UDF layout, MPEG2 video, ATAPI-friendly data rates)

    Something has to do the decoding. Cost-wise, it makes sense for the PC's hardware to do that work. No one would buy $200 worth of extra equipment to use a PC monitor to watch a movie. They want to use the fancy hardware they already bought.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 29, 2003 @01:11PM (#7828309)
    No, he isn't wrong. As you said, Multi language versions of DVDs that come out after the original version is released will require re-pressing. But this has nothing to do with region codes.

    Region codes span multiple countries and language groups. There is no direct relation, in fact the opposite arguement makes more sense -- e.g. many British commonwealth countries speak almost identical dialects of English, yet are they are spread across many different regions.

    If region codes did not exist, a single DVD could be pressed and sent out to all those countries.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 29, 2003 @01:48PM (#7828661)
    The reason most DVD's are region encoded is that companies (like the BBC) have distribution agreements in place for the whole world with various companies or subsidiaries.

    You can be sure that someone else owns the rights (BBC America perhaps) to distribute all BBC programming outside the UK. Contractually the BBC probably encodes all DVD's because they aren't supposed to sell them outside the UK. If demand for a DVD is high enough, the distributor will reprint it for their region. Just because the program in question is unlikely to be of interest outside the UK doesn't automatically allow the BBC to shirk their contractual obligations.

    Very few companies sign away global distribution rights on anuthing, so region coding plays right into that structure.
  • by anubi ( 640541 ) on Monday December 29, 2003 @07:14PM (#7831248) Journal
    Apparently, some of the MBA's making the decisions are failing to realize that by failing to make a standard that *ALL* adhere to, they are raising the "cost of entry" to the consumer to purchase movies exhorbitantly high by requiring the lawful consumer to also purchase the requisite players.

    The "cost of exit" still remains virtually nil. It costs very little to maintain your generic player.

    But needs will be met.

    Consider

    An executive who has found a company willing to pay him a million dollars a year plus perks in exchange for his leadership skills. He specifies yet another format and has it accepted. His needs were met. His salary is paid. His guidance is followed.

    A consumer who wants a copy of some movie he liked. He sees this weird format thing on the shelves, but it won't play in his player. He leaves it on the shelf, and eventually one of his friends offer him a DIVX copy. The seeker now has his movie and his needs are met.

    People will see stuff they can't play in their machine, so they leave it on the shelf and look around for the generic bootleg which anything can play. This really encourages the production of bootlegs. Think you can control it with lawyers?

    Review "prohibition" in the US when they tried to outlaw whiskey. It ruined a lot of otherwise productive citizens, and made a lot of gangsters rich. Just as our marijuana laws do now.

    Geez, didn't they learn their lesson with this "region" fiasco? People have money but cannot legally buy what they want, but the bootleg is free for the taking!

    People generally want to be honest, but geez, what are these MBA's thinking these days?

People will buy anything that's one to a customer.

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