A High-tech Wheel of Fortune 371
tcp writes "The BBC is reporting that the London police have detained three people, for allegedly beating the roulette wheel at a London casino. Using a cell phone, a computer and a laser scanner, they were able to predict where the roulette ball would land, winning more than 1.5 million dollars in the process. This technique was not new, and as I recall was the plot of a movie once. The suspects have not been charged yet. The UK has been behind in bringing their gambling laws to deal with new hi-tech threats unlike the US and Las Vegas."
Tipping the odds in your favor... (Score:5, Interesting)
that's new... (Score:5, Interesting)
some people who would consider themselves professionals do the same thing by eye - make a guesstimate based on when the roulette employee releases the ball - but to do it with computers - well, that's just wrong
but if it ain't illegal, it'll be hard to prosecute - it's like counting cards...not illegal, but you'll get your butt booted from the casino pronto -
RB
Physics can solve anything if it has all the info (Score:5, Interesting)
That's why it's essential that some details of the mixing situation should not be disclosed to the public while betting is still going on. I think what makes most daily blower-bin based lotto games unpredictible is the fact that the exact to-the-nanosecond time at which the bin is opened is being determined by a presenter who is also responsible for talking at the same time. Therefore, they can't possibly have enough control of their hands know what exactly their influence on the outcome is going to do. Since nobody else can really predict down to the fraction of a second what the presenter is going to do, everybody's on a level playing field.
I think the ultimate solution to this roulette wheel issue will be to call a stop to betting before the ball and wheel are put into motion. Therefore, by the time the information needed to determine the result of this spin is available, it will be too late to act upon it.
How bizarre! (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:3, Interesting)
Like I said, I have no idea, but maybe also because it's considered fraud in some way?
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Interesting)
Some other obvious cheating examples:
-Bringing in cameras and linking them so a player can see his opponent's cards.
-Using a device to let you predict/influence the roll of the dice.
-Hacking a slot machine to produce winning pulls
The point? It's not a flaw with the casino or their equipment - it's a bunch of jackasses trying to cheat.
hungarians (Score:4, Interesting)
http://index.hu/tech/tudomany/ritz040323/
in hungarian.
Later they said, that this device cannot exist, as such a device would be least a pc large and needs a calibration of some hours and at least NASA technique to make it.
So at last, they said, that there are a number of people who actually can figure out what is the winning number from the spinning of the wheel by her own eye.
The article also mentions, that after all, they don't really need to now the EXACT target of the ball, if they can close out 2 numbers, they can earn an average of 3% per round.
So anyway, it's a weird weird story with SCI-FI elements...
Idiots. (Score:5, Interesting)
Worst case I ever heard of: A guy who had worked on PNRGs for casinos (yes, way back when such things were deemed good enough) decided to cash in, so he got together with a friend and wrote a quick program to sync in the the PRNG given a reasonable number of inputs. The PRNGs were mostly (and still are sometimes!) used for the keno games. He had his friend up in the hotel room with a laptop, and phoned up the numbers from a few rounds of keno. They got what seemed to be a reasonable sync, so he put a massive amount of cash predicting the next 10 numbers in order (which has stupendous returns (naturally)). Bang, up come all 10 numbers, in order. The police arrested his accomplice in the hotel room about 10 minutes later...
Jedidiah.
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:3, Interesting)
A friend of mine had a job at the casino (Score:5, Interesting)
He said the only way to win on roulette more or less reliably is to play against the guy who has more money than you. If the guy selects some numbers or colors, put your money onto opposite colors and numbers that are far from his numbers if possible. The guy will throw a ball in such a way as to screw the guy who put the most money into the game.
Re:that's new... (Score:5, Interesting)
In Las Vegas, for example, they can simply tell a card counter they're no longer welcome there and force them to leave. In Atlantic City, they cannot, but they are allowed to annoy a card counter out of their casino with tactics such as a shuffle after every hand.
It's all about ball control... (Score:5, Interesting)
Although no casino will admit to its existence and very few dealers will nod in acknowledgement, this method is very powerful and easy to disguise. One cannot deny that a roulette event is heavily influenced by a human dealer. After all, it is the dealer who kicks up the rotor speed and launches the little white ball isn't it? These actions definitely affect where the ball will land. And after years of repeatedly spinning, the dealer develops what athletes call "muscle memory" or a consistent delivery system. I will admit it to you right here, as someone who has dealt the game of roulette, SOME DEALERS CAN CONSCIOUSLY INFLUENCE THE RESULT OF THE GAME. There, I said it! I know that deflectors may knock a ball off its original course or the ball may spatter when it crosses onto the rotor and hits a pocket fret, but even if a skilled dealer could navigate around the heavily bet sectors on the wheel only 10% of the time, the casino's edge would be 100% for those spins! The house's edge would then be [(9) x 5.26% + (1) x 100.00%] all divided by 10. This averages out to a whooping 14.73 % edge! To further add to this dilemma, there is no way to prove that the dealer is trying to cheat you, unless you can read minds! My general observations have led me to believe that "male" roulette dealers are more territorial. If you begin to win steadily at their tables, they feel challenged and may spin against you... that is unless you're a shapely female wearing a low-cut dress. I've also seen first-generation immigrants working as dealers, who are staunchly loyal to their new employers. If the issue of ball control troubles you, you can simply wait for the dealer to spin before placing your bets. You might actually turn this technique in your favor. If you recognize a skillful dealer and can build a rapport with him or her, you may be able to exploit their ability. One way to induce a dealer into hitting your number is to bet a sector or continuous section on the rotor of say, five pockets. Place a toke out for the dealer on the number situated at the sector's center. The dealers seem to appreciate a crack at collecting 35 times their original toke if they exhibit some control. If they miss your center number by one or two pockets, then you still win on the neighbors contained in that sector.
Source [roulette2002.com]
The technology involved... (Score:1, Interesting)
The bit that defeats me is the nerve to attempt the sting - and for large stakes. Face it, when large sums of money are in play, people get protective about it. I'd expect that's why this was tried in the UK, despite lower potential returns than the big US casino scene; in the UK outfitting unwanted punters with concrete boots is comparatively rare...
Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if gang money was behind developing this little con.
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:4, Interesting)
And if a cheater ends up in a dumpster, that's murder. Whomever did that should be executed. I don't mind paying for that.
Casino Hacking (Score:5, Interesting)
I don't think this is right... (Score:5, Interesting)
You might as well outlaw all ways that people try to give themselves better odds. Those who go to certain slot machines (that have been loosing for a long time) should be illegial, since it is a way people try to improve their odds.
People playing blackjack should be thrown out if they stay at a pre-set number (eg. 17 or 18).
My point is that it should not be illegial to beat the house... But that seems to be the way it is. There is no consistency in the rules of what is and is not acceptible at a casion, EXCEPT that you are doing something wrong if you win.
Counting cards with a computer could be reasonably considered illegial, but how about those that do so without computer assistance?
People should be able to sue a casio that throws them out (when they are winning) without any proof that they are cheating.
You can still bet after the ball is released? (Score:2, Interesting)
As a non-gambler, I know nothing about how roulette is played. From the article it seems to imply that you can wait for the ball to be released, observe the course of ball and wheel, do the math to predict the outcome, and then place your bet. Is that correct, or have I misunderstood? Common sense would seem to require that all bets be placed prior to the ball and wheel being put in (randomized) motion to prevent just that sort of thing.
Does a horse track still take bets as the steeds enter the final stretch?
Laws to protect obsolete business (Score:5, Interesting)
So what we have here are laws that are designed to protect an obsolete business model from technology. And yet: these laws have nothing to do with protecting anyone from force or fraud.
Wait a minute .. why isn't it fraud?
It's not fraud because the little gambler never asserted that he promises to remain stupid and not make use of information, or to not do anything that will help him. (What's next, are you going to make it illegal to cross your fingers and pray?) It's not like the other consenting partner in the gamble, isn't making use of a shitload of information and technology against him. And it isn't as though the other partner doesn't doesn't already have odds on their side. So the very premise that 'fairness' has somehow been compromised, is laughable.
The fact is: some forms of gambling have been made obsolete, and we're propping them up with legislation. That doesn't smell good, to me. And it sets a really lousy precedent. If gambling can be propped up, then other industries can be, too.
Information and games of 'skill' (Score:5, Interesting)
Historical quirk: I live in Kansas City, KS. Across the state line in MO there are riverboat casinos that were originally approved under the language that mentioned 'games of skill'. At that time, video draw poker was legal, because of the skill involved in deciding which cards to hold, and which to discard, but not the run-of-the-mill slots (which have since been allowed by changes in the law). At that time, this method of winning at roulette, or card counting at the blackjack table, could not have been opposed by the casinos because they had to maintain the legal theory that skill was involved in these games. The boats in MO quickly adopted rules for the number of decks in the shoe, how far into it a reshuffle is done, and the delta between minimum and maximum bets, so as to make counting irrelevant. I believe those rules remain in effect today...
Card Counting is mostly Bunk (Score:2, Interesting)
Card counting, and the computer simulations used to justify it, fail in two fatal ways:
1. They assume a random distribution of the cards at shuffle. This is so far from the truth it is unreal. Each casino has a different way to shuffle the shoe. It does redistribute the cards, but it is not at all random.
Since casino has its own shuffle any strategy will be casino-specific. The distribution of high and low cards gets slowly shifted at each shuffle. At the beginning of the day every deck is in a pre-set order. Each shuffle modifies that order in a predictable way. If you have a card counting strategy, it would be best to include, as part of your strategy, the number of times a shoe has been shuffled. When they break open new decks of cards, the shuffle count starts anew.
2. They assume that the dealer is neutral. This is, at best, naive. The dealer will break a table to run off obnoxious guests and to make room for players that tip well. The dealer will reward players that do tip well. Can't be done legally? Think again.
Any experienced dealer will tell you that a shoe has a "flow" to it. The shoe will either be rewarding the house or the players. When the dealer shuffles the cards, they can either shuffle in a way that generally preserves the flow or shuffle in a way that generally reverses the flow. This does not work 100% of the time, but it does work.
The dealer cannot target a particular player, but they can target the table as a whole.
Got a dickhead at your table? Watch out! The dealer will break him to make him go away. The house will take all of your money, too.
Is everybody at the table nice, cool, and tipping the dealer and waitresses well? Keep it up and watch your fortunes multiply.
Is the table down (losing money) for the shift? Better leave, because the pit boss gets in trouble when this happens, so he will lean on the dealers to raise some cash for the table.
Is it the end of the night and the dealers want to close the table, but you are persistent and wish to play? Get ready to lose your bankroll at a breathtaking rate.
When a new dealer comes to the table, he or she will generally ask how the game is going. They are trying to ascertain the flow of the current shoe. Sometimes when you lose a hand, they will tell you, "Just wait until the next shoe, it will be better." They are telling you that the shoe flow is favoring the house and they will attempt to reverse it at the shuffle. While waiting for the current shoe to run out, bet low (to keep from losing too much) and tip well (so the dealer doesn't change his mind).
If you don't believe this, just go to a set of blackjack tables and watch for a while.
Las Vegas (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Interesting)
As well, as the article notes, PLAYERS don't like it! There are only so many rule changes you can make in the interest of cheat reductions before the legitimate players get fed up and leave. (One of these is disallowing blackjack players to increase the number of hands they play mid-shoe). As an aside, in the Province of Alberta, casino dealers are to stop betting two ball revolutions BEFORE THE DROP, not after the spin commences. As in many gambling areas, the regulations must be changed: the casino can't just create rules (even sensible ones) out of the blue.
For this reason, speeding up the wheel and reducing bet times are not good ideas. It will prevent cheating, because the legitimate players will stop playing and the game will be shut down!
The best way to prevent wheel tracking I've found is just to constantly (every spin) change the speed of the wheel and the ball. I like to let the wheel slow and then push it with the ball just before I spin. This would require these cheats to constantly re-compute, increasing the likelihood of detection.
Re:I know... (Score:2, Interesting)
The figures I've seen are that with the largest available bet, and the fastest feasible play, the player's advantage is so small that he couldn't expect to make minimum wage.
It does allow the casinos to advertise that their machines offer 100%+ payout, which should be a marketing advantage. That is, if enough people believe them.
This assumes the machines are fair, which is pretty difficult to be sure of.
Still, my experience is that if you play well, and enjoy it, video poker on the right machine can be cheap entertainment.
A Patch For This Exploit (Score:5, Interesting)
You can hack with cable TV games too... (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Card Counting is mostly Bunk (Score:5, Interesting)
Still, interesting story... back jack dealers can feel a flow of a deck for or against the house and can change that flow with specific shuffles? You have to find something to back this up, it's just too fantastic. But very cool sounding none the less.
I find this hard to believe... (Score:1, Interesting)
There should be a rule that if you don't get catch on the night you cheated at the casino you can keep what you win!
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:5, Interesting)
That's the point really. There is a way to predict the outcome. Like a lot of games, it is not a game of pure skill, it has an element of chance and an element of skill in the form of predicting where the ball will land. Just like blackjack is a game of chance and skill. The skill comes in when you try to predict what cards are going to be dealt based on statistics and your knowledge of what cards have been dealt so far. Of course, the casinos consider people who are too good at "counting cards" to be cheaters as well.
The problem here is that the argument that you cannot use technological devices to help you in gambling is a slippery slope argument. I've never heard of a casino banning anyone for glasses or contacts, even if they help people see better and therefore enhance their natural gambling skills. What about future visual aids. Lets say you have a low resolution artificial retina for blind which cannot see as well or in the same way as a normal retina and makes up for it by, for example, using a computer to track motion and plotting courses for objects in Heads Up Display? Or how about if it allows the user to rewind their vision to specific bookmarks, allowing them to supplement their memory (helpful in remember what cards have already been dealt, for example). Are the disabled going to be banned from future casinos?
All this is really beyond the point in my opinion. Random redistribution of wealth at casions is stupid. Redistribution of wealth based on exceptional skill at gambling is considered cheating by the casinos. The government, when they allow private gambling to interfere on their own gambling monopoly, seem to agree with the casinos in these matters. So, the end result is that, on the whole, the only people who actually win at casinos are the odd successful gambler, the cheaters who do not get caught, and the casinos themselves. In other words, casinos are dumb. I guess I hold the view that people should be allowed to gamble if they want to, but I think they are stupid to do so.
One big pie (Score:1, Interesting)
Remember, if you can narrow the end position of that ball after one or one and a half spins down to even a third of the roulette pie, you're going to win back three times that amount of chips you scatter down. Having a friend with you is probably the best way to get your chips down in time.
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:2, Interesting)
Nobody expects the casino to allow them to play, or to not ban them for life... everyone involved HAD to konw the casino would blow a gasket when they found out.
The issue is whether or not this is criminal.. in Vegas, it would be, because there are specific laws dealing with using computing devices to augment your play.
Barring such laws, and considering their method in no way interfered with the game itself, there is probably nothing the casino can charge them with.. just as a card counter in blackjack cannot be charged with cheating.
A person using the same system to count cards as me, but using a computer to do it, WOULD be charged in nevada.. whearas I would merely be politely barred form the blackjack table at that particular casino.
Re:I know... (Score:5, Interesting)
Group 1 - cards 5 or less
Group 2 - 10's or face cards
When you've counted a significantly higher number of group 1's than group 2's, increase your bet - more high cards gives the player better odds, and vice versa.
I did this in Vegas with a 2-deck shoe that they cut 22 cards out of at shuffle and won $290 at a $5 table...I would bet $20 on the first hand of a shoe and $10 - $20 on a somewhat favorable to very favorable shoe thereafter, and $5 every other time. I didn't even count the whole deck, just each hand. With about 21 cards per hand at a six-player table, if I got a +5 or better inbalance, I ramped up my bets. And it worked like a charm, I probably won 75% of my big bets and lost 75% of my small bets (give or take), therefore netting me profit in the end.
Chris
Re:I know... (Score:2, Interesting)
This is know as the Hi/low count and is the most effective system, due to it's simplicity.
why is it? (Score:2, Interesting)
First, there are metal studs on the wheel into which the ball occasionally runs. These pop the ball up a little bit and cause it to run down to the numbers more quickly. if this is such a factor, then the computer would definately not work at predicting the resting spot of the ball without the "studs" programmed in too, the article said nothing about studs programmed in. The Professor said that a good guess can be made from the velocity of the wheel the mass and speed of the ball. It is possible that a dealer could "aim" the ball where he wants it.
Re:Las Vegas (Score:3, Interesting)
Law has little to do with what Ebay may allow or not allow on their site. Check out their policy here [ebay.com].
They have pulled auctions of OEM software of mine which complied with all of their rules. I really can't imagine they'd let one go from an overseas virgin girl.
Ebay used to have a firearms section, now they will pull tons of stuff that's not even against their rules, and definitely not illegal.
Note: I hate Ebay.
Re:Why were they detained ? (Score:1, Interesting)
When does this become rigging?
Ideas/Criticism? (Score:4, Interesting)
For example, if you found these values for one rotation:
2.4s
2.8s
2.4s
2.2s
2.0s
1.9s
2.6s
2.3s
1.9s
2.0s
2.2s
2.3s
2.4s
2.4s
2.6s
2.8s
Drop the two extremes (I know I said 50%, sue me):
2.0s
2.2s
2.3s
2.4s
2.4s
2.6s
Then average them to arrive at 2.65s.
Wouldn't this eliminate the need to know the mass of the ball and the friction of the track?
Couldn't you then just covertly cross reference the thrown speeds with the actual winning quadrant (1/2, 1/4, whatever) to get yourself a prediction matrix?
I'm not trying to pretend that these are viable methods, I'm just thinking of them as they come into my head and thinking that there must be something wrong with 'em.
Thanks in advance for the replies.
Re:Casino games ... (Score:3, Interesting)
in the long run you will always lose, but roulette is a fine game in the sense that to some extend you can choose the risk(you can never make the probability go so that you'd end up winning in the long run though). playing for profit is of course quite fruitless, but with games like this you can extend the playing time you can get with certain amount of money(which, when playing for fun, is very important).
we got a state protected firm running the casinos and betting, returning the profits to sports, culture & etc(with betting they can't provide as good return rate as some private strictly for profit would be able to but I don't really care, but people who bet often complain about that).
of course some 'pro' losers are just playing on the internet now as a consequence.