Supercomputers Race to Predict Storms 184
pillageplunder writes "CNN has an interesting article on how different supercomputers from around the world are working to predict large storms tracks. The 3 days it takes now has been cut in half. Cool read."
Evacuate! (Score:1, Interesting)
More details on Fleet Numerical's iron (Score:5, Interesting)
Just Distribute the Load... (Score:1, Interesting)
Cool distributed computing idea. (Score:2, Interesting)
NOAA (Score:5, Interesting)
Fortran, yay! (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Fortran? (Score:4, Interesting)
Relevant links from weather geek bookmarks (Score:5, Interesting)
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracki
The NHC discussion of the model guidance for each storm is here, under 'discussion' for each storm:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ [noaa.gov]
They explain why they're agreeing with or discounting each model in their overall forecasts.
Generally, it's difficult to find much prediction of hurricane tracks that doesn't come somehow from the NHC. This isn't because there aren't independent analysists, but because they try not to send mixed signals, which might lead to people not evacuating when they should. The raw information from the computer models is the closest you get to dissenting opinions, afiak.
You have to wonder.. (Score:4, Interesting)
Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:the 3 days it takes? (Score:2, Interesting)
Personally living in New Orleans (10 feet below sea level) it's comforting to know that the forecasts are only off by 400 miles now.
/SARCASM
See the models (Score:5, Interesting)
Ivan [wunderground.com]
Jeanne [wunderground.com].
Since the pages auto-refresh, I've just been leaving them up in a tab in Mozilla and checking them every once and a while. Though the models aren't always accurate and tend to change a lot, they kind of give you a feel for where the storm is probably going to go.
A long way to go... (Score:2, Interesting)
What's more, one of the local TV stations in-house track forcasting program gave a dead on accurate prediction several days before it hit while the National Hurricane Center was saying Tampa. With Ivan, at one point one of the major models (BAM Medium) predicted the storm would change directions from WNW to NE instantly at a point 3 days away.
Perhaps media forcasters should be evaluating which models are most accurate for the current storm instead of just reporting on a numerical average of computer model coordinates, since often outlying models pick up on something the other ones missed. A few places do that, and often predict the path with a much smaller error than the NHC, whose predictions are purely based on averages of models of which none are always accurate to begin with.
Re:Fortran, yay! (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:the 3 days it takes? (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Fortran? (Score:3, Interesting)
Even academic hpc facilities employ teams of experts to optimize code for the scientists.
You're right that there is a lot of inertia keeping people in the fortran fold. But the software vendors are also helping this by having really strong fortan libraries.
Re:Using Fortran, eh? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:I'll save them the trouble... (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Twister (Score:4, Interesting)
A talk I just gave a few days ago on this is found at the below link. Both in OpenOffice and PPT format. Note: the mpegs in that directory are BIG (1024x768) but they are very cool animations of supercells (raytraced with POV-Ray) and tornado-like circulations.
http://research.orf.cx/uw2004 [research.orf.cx]
Leigh Orf
Re:Fortran is faster (Score:2, Interesting)
EarthSimulator vs.Power4 vs. Pentium IV (Score:1, Interesting)
There is nothing in the architecture of the ES to prevent it from performing the calculations for modeling hurricanes. The only possible problem might be that the software for doing the modeling has not yet been ported to the ES.
Anyhow, what is interesting to note is that the modeling of hurricanes is a critical operation of the supercomputers. Another critical operation is command control on the battlefield. In such critical operations, which supercomputer would you use?
At the end of the CNN article, it implies that the new system for modeling hurricances is a super-multiprocessor powered by the Power4+ from IBM. In a sense this deployment of the IBM supercomputer says a lot about the Power4 and IBM technology. When your life or the lives of millions of people depend on the calculations performed by a supercomputer, which supercomputer manufacturer and processor would you choose? Apparently, the clear choice is IBM and Power4.
There is no mention of Pentium IV or UltraSPARC. Not surprising, really.
Re:Earth Simulator (Score:3, Interesting)
The place even looks cool http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/eo/what/arch1.html [ucar.edu]
Very cool place indeed, if you're in the area.