Google Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work 190
daveperry writes "The Google Blog has a post about their use of prediction markets to forecast certain events that are relevant to their business. From the article: "Our search engine works well because it aggregates information dispersed across the web, and our internal predictive markets are based on the same principle: Googlers from across the company contribute knowledge and opinions which are aggregated into a forecast by the market. Sometimes, just feeling lucky isn't enough, and these tools can help." In related news, some software was recently open sourced that enables people to set up their own prediction markets."
Result of this (Score:1, Insightful)
2. Act on Prediction
3. Cause Market Impact
4. Need New Prediction!
World is quickening
putting their users to work (Score:3, Insightful)
Wonderful, Google realizes that many people think they're absolutely wonderful and finds a way to put those people to work for them. As for the possible MSN/AOL deal about to occur and "kill" Google, with ideas like this and a willing user base Google isn't threatened at all.
Sheep (Score:5, Insightful)
I predict that when you herd sheep from field A to field B, they will eat whatever is in field B rather than return to field A.
Re:Sounds Like Owise.com (Score:0, Insightful)
Isn't this exactly what the Pentagon tried to do.. (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Awesome Mindpower! (Score:2, Insightful)
I like how you put this in bold and still managed to catch an Informative...
Non-ideal behavior: bubbles & manipulators (Score:4, Insightful)
1) There are two ways to "be right" in a market. First, I can make the right choice as to the actual ending outcome. This a buy-and-hold strategy. Or, second, I can make the right choice as to the direction of price movements in the market. This is the speculator's buy-and-sell strategy. The first strategy means the the market converges on the "true" expected value. The second strategy leads to bubbles and crashes that don't provide as much useful data on the actually variable being modeled by the market. Google wants to encourage the first type of trading, but not totally suppress the second type of trading because speculators provide liquidity in markets.
2) Manipulators can "cause" events to occur in the way that maximizes their return, but suboptimizes Googles performance. If I bet that a given project will be done in October and it looks like its getting done early, what stops me from causing a small delay? Of if the project is being delayed too much, what stops me from descoping the project or doing a fast, low-quality job to complete the project within my chosen time frame. In either case, I can manipulate the outcome to win in the market, but hurt Google.
Note that I don't include insider trading in the list problems. Google doesn't really care if the market is fair, only that it provides accurate predictions. In fact, Google might encourage insider trading as a way to encourage communication inside the company. The more people that share their "inside" information on upcoming strategic, the better.
Re:Gmail is the ultimate prediction market (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Isn't this exactly what the Pentagon tried to d (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Gmail is the ultimate prediction market (Score:3, Insightful)
Rather than USENET, I believe the O.P. was referring to gmail. Web based or not, people (perhaps wrongly) have an expectation of privacy in their personal communications. For Google to be snarfing this out of gmailed data would be extremely evil (violating one of their core principles.)
While the suggestion that Google is monitoring gmail for stock activity is really funny, in real life it wouldn't happen for several reasons. First, they'd be violating their user's privacy. Next, they might be seen as taking advantage of insider information. While companies may have a policy in place about not discussing stock information over email, and most people won't violate their employers rules, human behavior does suggest they'll still talk ABOUT their company.
Finally, if it was revealed that Google ever tried this, you can bet the scammers would immediately start exchanging gmails about some company as part of a pump'n'dump scheme!
BTW, traffic analysis is amazing stuff -- it's been suggested that the pizza delivery businesses in Washington D.C. know when something is up before the rest of us because they deliver more midnight pizzas than usual to the Pentagon.
Yahoo has one going you can actually play with (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:This can't work (Score:4, Insightful)
I certainly will, if many people use the system. It is extremely useful to know what the majority believes. It is one thing to predict accurately what will happen, and another thing to gauge to what extent this knowledge is already factored into market prices. the point of reading the headlines of financial publications has always been to know where the herds are going, as far as I am concerned.
Oh, so now this is good? (Score:1, Insightful)
Slashdot Comment Moderation (Score:5, Insightful)
In essence, CmdrTaco had no choice. Spam was starting to choke slashdot comments and making them less than useful. The moderation system saved the comment system, but didn't, as many people assume that it should have done, make the comments more interesting.
I believe that if the prevailing attitude among slashdot developers is to "weed out the spam", we'll see a slow decline of slashdot's popularity until it's made irrelevant by RSS feed aggregators.
IMHO, the attitude *SHOULD* be to exploit slashdot's major differentiator over simple aggregators, which is the community it has created. In other words, they should invert the "weed out the spam" attitude into a "make the comments more interesting" attitude. It's a subtle difference and, on the face of it, it would appear that one begets the other. I contend that weeding out spam does not make comments more interesting and conversely, making comments more interesting won't weed out the spam. Thus we come to the root of the problem, two crosswise goals.
CmdrTaco has to worry about the system from a performance standpoint. Weeding out the spam means less bandwidth and storage costs. That's immediate ROI, and a good thing on many levels. The community, however, needs more than 1,2,3,4 or 5 to determine what comments to read and which to ignore, to make them interesting. I can conjecture at a few ideas that would make it better, but I do not know the ultimate solution, and I doubt anyone else does either. I believe the problem requires more than just CmdrTaco playing whack-a-mole with ideas, meta-ideas and meta-meta-ideas etc. It requires serious PhD dissertation level study.
stop being a moron (Score:1, Insightful)