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Technology Hardware Science

Nanotech in Microchips by 2015 119

Posted by CmdrTaco from the i'll-believe-it-when-it-boots dept.
dotwhynot writes "Molecular electronics, a realm once considered science fiction, could be heading for our computers and devices sooner than thought. A new report on the technology roadmap of the chip industry finds a growing confidence in new nanotechnology, and forecasts that the transition to the post-silicon era could happen by 2015. The development of nanoswitches has already reached a point where it will be possible to manufacture them reliably at low cost. Intels goal over the next decade is to build chips that hold more than one trillion switches."
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Nanotech in Microchips by 2015 More

Nanotech in Microchips by 2015

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  • Ipods have Nano Technology (Score:5, Funny)

    by richman555 ( 675100 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @03:40PM (#14360039)
    I thought the ipods already had this technology!

  • That's much later than I thought... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Enigma_Man ( 756516 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @03:42PM (#14360047) Homepage
    Everything seems like it's "nanotech this" "nanotech that" these days... It seems like "nano" stuff in microchips should already be here. Marketspeak = the big let down.

    -Jesse
  • Not that I'm against that - after all, going to the moon must've seemed like an impossible dream to most people in the 50's. A computer able to hold millions of bits of information and able to fit in a single room? Laughable.

    Still, predictions that a nascent and unproven technology will sweep into widespread usage within a decade seems just a bit optimistic. I just hope that I'm wrong.

  • Heat (Score:4, Informative)

    by mysqlrocks ( 783488 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @03:42PM (#14360052) Homepage Journal
    The transition to new nanotechnology techniques could occur around 2015, when chip makers will have exhausted their ability to shrink the wires and switches that make up the modern processors and memory storage devices at the heart of the computer, communications and consumer electronics industries.

    Nevermind the growing heat concern. Who was it that said soon microchips will be hotter than the surface of the sun if they keep getting faster at the same rate they are now?

    • Re:Heat (Score:5, Informative)

      by $RANDOMLUSER ( 804576 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @03:53PM (#14360124)
      > Who was it that said soon microchips will be hotter than the surface of the sun if they keep getting faster at the same rate they are now?

      1) James Clerk Maxwell [wikipedia.org]
      2) Max Plank [wikipedia.org]
      3) Gordon Moore [wikipedia.org]
      4) All of the above ;-)

    • Re:Heat (Score:4, Informative)

      by Ironsides ( 739422 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @03:53PM (#14360126) Homepage Journal
      Nevermind the growing heat concern. Who was it that said soon microchips will be hotter than the surface of the sun if they keep getting faster at the same rate they are now?

      That's assuming that power consumption continues to increase inside the silicon chip. With these switches, using different materials all together, power consumption is supposed to be greatly reduced. What you're doing is similar to comparing a statement made about vacum tubes to transistors.

      • Re:Heat (Score:3, Informative)

        by mysqlrocks ( 783488 )
        What you're doing is similar to comparing a statement made about vacum tubes to transistors.

        Actually no, I was stating one more reason that wasn't previously mentioned as to why this nanotech is needed. You misunderstood my point.
      • I suggest you read this paper [intel.com].

    • Re:Heat (Score:3, Interesting)

      by LionKimbro ( 200000 )
      Computing is going all low-power and parallel. Check out Intel's Platform 2015. [intel.com]
    • I was thinking about the exact same issue while reading this article. After putting a lot of effort into near-silent cooling of a Pentium Northwood 2.8 chip, heat is certainly on my mind. I think the statement (emphasis mine)

      Based on the ability of electrons to exhibit one of two states - orientations described as up or down - spin transistors are switches whose state can be detected and altered without applying an electrical charge.

      addresses the issue of heat generation ... though in the intermediate

  • That being the case (Score:4, Funny)

    by kpainter ( 901021 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @03:43PM (#14360056)
    Let me be the first to coin the term "picotechnology". I don't know anything about it except that it will be sub-molecular electronics.

  • Shouldn't they be called (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Hooptie ( 10094 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @03:45PM (#14360066) Homepage
    nanochips?

    Hooptie

  • This just in... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by BigDork1001 ( 683341 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @03:45PM (#14360069) Homepage
    ... flying cars by 1990! Also in 2001 we will be sending a mission to Jupiter with a space ship run by a super-intelligent computer.

    I'll believe it when I see it. These tech predictions rarely seem to happen when people think.

  • Still waiting!! (Score:1, Redundant)

    by Markvs ( 17298 )
    Huh. I'm still waiting for the "paperless office by 1985" and for my flying car... after all, 50% of all cars were to fly by 1990.

    • Re:Still waiting!! (Score:5, Funny)

      by teslar ( 706653 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @04:56PM (#14360500)
      50% of all cars were to fly by 1990.
      According to Flying Car Magazine (1992, vol 12, pp 34-38), the figure of 50% was actually already reached in 1987. Furthermore, the last ground vehicle to be produced was a special 'Grand Finale' edition of the Volkswagen Beetle in 1996. So what are you complaining about?
      Oh.... I get it, you're from the lo-tech enclave set up by our Voryonite Overlords - that small patch of land back on planet Earth where people have been kept oblivious of the arrival of our Lords and left to develop on their own, the aim being to convince even the last sceptic that the arrival of our Lords has been a Good Thing (tm).
      How cute, so you've got internet now. Do you also access it through neuralites or are you still using external equipment? I'm sorry, I'm a little out of touch - I haven't watched the OldWay Feed since I was very little... anyway, must run, a Triunian Starhopper has just docked, I need to fix some of their computer systems. A starport, even a remote one like Venus V, is a great place to be when you're a nerd :)
      See ya! And do drop by once you develop space flights, I'll get you really good deals on antimatter!
    • You can get your car to fly easily.

      Just don't slow down when you see that big dip in the road.

      /the landing is a bit rough, but hey, you wanted to fly.

  • Scary stuff... (Score:1, Offtopic)

    by gasmonso ( 929871 )

    In 2016 the machines become "self-aware" and the rest (meaning us) is history.

    http://religiousfreaks.com/ [religiousfreaks.com]
  • One of my "life goals" if you wish to call it that, is to get into the engineering and design of circuits/robotics/etc. I've looked at taking some nano-technology classes but right now I don't feel it would be justified compared to learning other important things which will contribute to what I want to do.

    Don't get me wrong, I'd love to take some courses to learn about it, but at my local schools atleast, their programs aren't that great it seems. Any insight about what would be the best way to approach
    • First, learn how to design circuits in general. It won't matter what the underlying technology is after that, you can learn to use any of them. The hard part is learning how to design them in the first place. I took a class on how to design silicon chips my senior year. Give me a new technology and it won't take me long to pick up the new features not that I understand the basics.
      • That's what I thought it'd be like, and to be honest I'm glad it is like that. I guess it makes sense, if you make it to where everyone who's already in the business have to relearn how to design circuits then you have some SERIOUS problems!
        • To help you out, there are three levels of circuit design you would need to learn. The first is the basics. What the NAND, NOR, OR, AND, XOR, and various flip-flops do. That was a sophmore level course in computer/electrical engineering (or CS) at my school. After that, you get into more advanced designs including designing your own microprocessors and such. That level is the most advanced you can learn without being "process specific".

          The last level is the physical level. Currently, this involves l
  • The transition to new nanotechnology techniques could occur around 2015, when chip makers will have exhausted their ability to shrink the wires and switches

    Shrinking the wires can ALREADY be done with carbon nanotubes. Already some of them are being used for heat dissipation in audio chips.

    So, IMHO, it'll be more or less like this:

    1) Carbon nanotubes will replace copper wires in CPU's, disminishing the required operational voltage and current leakage.

    2) "Conventional" technologies used today (like multigate transistors) will be optimized for nanotube wires.

    3) The first nanotube transistors will appear a couple of years after 2) is developed.

    4) As this technology is improved, one day we'll be able to use spintronic or optical transistors.

    Somewhere in the middle of these, 3D-layered chips and massively-parallel computing will be developed. Oh yes, don't forget about the system-in-a-chip.

    A (redudant - read my past posts on the subject) glimpse into the future: In 20 or 30 years our computers will be smaller than a Nintendo gamecube. No floppy disks, just flash (or magnetic?) memory cards and solid-state HDs. PCI bus will be cast into oblivion, when the new add-on cards fit in a PS2 memory stick. Small future, indeed.

    • Re:Expect a transitional phase... (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Jeff DeMaagd ( 2015 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @04:08PM (#14360214) Homepage Journal
      A (redudant - read my past posts on the subject) glimpse into the future: In 20 or 30 years our computers will be smaller than a Nintendo gamecube. No floppy disks, just flash (or magnetic?) memory cards and solid-state HDs. PCI bus will be cast into oblivion, when the new add-on cards fit in a PS2 memory stick. Small future, indeed.

      I predict that a computer smaller than a Nintendo Gamecube will be released into the public conciousness on January 2005 in the form of the Apple Mac mini. They are pretty neat too. I think there are older examples in embedded computers as well as miniITX boards.

      Why predict the use of removable memory cards? Why not also say those are considered offensive because of a global wireless network?

      The only reason full size desktops and midtowers are commonly available is cost, flexibility and performance, not many are willing to trade those off.
    • ..."spintronic"...

      Admit it, you made that word up.

      And you're just a gnat's chuff away from 'technotronic', too.

      ;)
    • I don't think it will make sense to even talk about "your computer," in the future, since there will be so goddamn many of them, all over the place, including within your body.

      I think it's likely that they'll have amorphous size, and be divisible and recombinable. I wouldn't speculate on the storage medium. For example, have you heard of "Millipede?" [physorg.com] There are so many data storage options being explored right now, and there's a lot of room for diversity. Looking 20 to 30 years down the line; Who knows what
    • There are a lot of issues with carbon nanotube (CNT) technology that your post doesn't take into account. Carbon nanotube transistors already exist in FET form, but there are hurdles to overcome in terms of integrated circuit production.

      The first thing that will need to occur is selective growth of semiconducting or metallic carbon nanotubes. All the current synthesis methods that I'm aware of produce a hodgepodge of both, and separating them is not the easiest thing to do.

      The techniques of which I'm awar

  • Ugh, you got your (Score:3, Funny)

    by thaerin ( 937575 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @04:00PM (#14360160)
    ... nano in my wafer. You got your wafer in my nano.

    Intels goal over the next decade is to build chips that hold more than one trillion switches.

    Floating point errors performed at the speed of light!
    • Floating point errors performed at the speed of light!

      Intel's lookup table consists of 1066 table entries, of which, due to a programming error, five were not downloaded into the programmable logic array (PLA). When any of these five cells is accessed by the floating point unit (FPU), it (the FPU) fetches zero instead of +2, which was supposed to be contained in the "missing" cells. This throws off the calculation and results in a less precise number than the correct answer(Byte Magazine, March 1995).

      • I forecast that the transition to a new joke could happen by 2015. By then, with all this nano stuff, computers could have more transistors than a dress has Clinton DNA and be smaller than Roseanne Barr's butt.
  • we'll have flying cars...
  • ...has already reached a point where it will be possible...

    I don't understand what this means. Are they doing it now? Haven't we reached a point with everything that it will eventually be possible?

    • ...has already reached a point where it will be possible...

      Meaning: "We've figured it out, but we can't actually admit that Moore's Law is complete toast. We like making you upgrade every 18 months."

  • "Nanotech in Microchips by 2015" (Score:3, Informative)

    by gregski ( 765387 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @04:07PM (#14360203)
    And there was me thinking that microchips manufactured on the 65nm scale was nanotech.

  • I remember when (Score:3, Insightful)

    by kevinx ( 790831 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @04:08PM (#14360210)
    computers were so big, we'd call them desktops.
    • And at the rate they're moving we'll call them hair follicles soon enough. Rogain would have an entirely new marketing campaign. "New hair that not only feels and looks natural, it can do your taxes and store hours of MP3s".
  • ...will be then fixed... too bad we have to wait 10 years for this.

  • Your career will be over... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by threaded ( 89367 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @04:46PM (#14360438) Homepage
    Seeing as how short most careers in IT are most of the readers here will have have finished their career in computers by the time this happens.

  • Too small.... (Score:3, Funny)

    by Itninja ( 937614 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @04:55PM (#14360490) Homepage
    As it is now, I 'lose' my Thinkpad (in the couch cushions, under a coffee table book, etc.) about once a week. I'd hate to think of a system that I lose in folds of my flesh.
  • Will not happen at least for another 30 years if it even happens at all. The nanotube technology is here now, but designing useful components will still take time, as well as a decent fab process. Then you have to convert (intel, AMD, IBM, etc. factories to fab these devices). This will cost billions and billions of dollars to do, and they will only do so, when it is deemed profitable. Let's not forget that the driving force behind adapting new technology is profit.

    This may never even happen. There are c
    • First off, there is exactly 0 reason to switch from QWERT to Dvorak. The only proof that Dvorak is faster is from..oh what was that guys name? hmm oh yeah, Dvorak.

      QWERTY has nothing to do with speed, and everything to do with the letter positioning in the carriage of typewriters.

      Even the alledged speed difference is pretty much moot on any modern computer, for all practical reasons.

      Now, there is hugh motivation to make this technology work. When it does work it will mean faster smaller and cooler computers.
    • I Agree. I think you could draw an anology between current predictions on nanotech and predictions about nuclear applications in the 1930s or space travel in 1950s. Nanotech is promising, but it is impossible to tell what we'll see in 15 years.

      In 1955, people standing on the moon in spacesuits within 15 years seemed just as likely/unlikely as having a collony on Mars, battling the Russians from earh orbiting satelites or launching spacecrafts with an atomic motor. Who would have thought we'd mostly loose in
  • I've always heard that chip design since they went sub-micron in the early 1990s wasone of the first, great examples of nano-technology.
  • So, now when programmers say there are "bugs" in the system, we know they mean nano-bugs; and we can all look forward to nano-viruses that will follow. Get me a can of NANO-RAID, please!
  • would my positronic computer be able to talk to them? :-)

  • Thank you for your submission (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Laaserboy ( 823319 ) on Thursday December 29, 2005 @05:34PM (#14360744)
    THANK YOU for your submission of a new
    [x] nanostructure
    [ ] laser
    [x] transistor
    using
    [x] large molecules
    [ ] DNA strands
    [ ] silicon
    This is a bad idea, because
    [ ] a 3-D structure is difficult to heat-sink
    [x] scientists likely never will produce a transistor this way
    [x] silicon has unique properties that cannot be matched
    [ ] this is a case of outright fraud
    The problem however is not to make circuits
    [ ] out of lasers
    [ ] 3-D
    [x] from anything but silicon
    [ ] self ordered
    But the problem is to make them
    [x] reliably
    [x] at low cost
    [x] faster
    Further this article was published in
    [ ] Science
    [ ] New Scientist
    [x] NYT
    [ ] Science News
    which is primarily a publicity-seeking instrument, and not a great peer-reviewed journal of physics.
    I can say this because I have a
    [ ] BS
    [ ] MS
    [x] PhD
    in
    [x] Physics
    [ ] Electrical Engineering
  • Maybe someone will solve the fabrication problem but these articles haven't even talked about it. Until someone makes the transition from the statistical mechanics of photolithography to the molecuar mechanics posited by nanotechnology devices, the fact that feature sizes of electronics devices are on the order of nanometers is insufficient justification to claim that we're on the verge of the nanotechnology revolution.
  • With the pace at which technology is growing and (hopefuly beyond moore's law soon) the fear of buying a new computer is extremely high for middle income computer nerds. There is always something better up ahead. Just a few months ago I bought an X800 graphics card, supposedly the world's fastest graphics processor chip (few months ago), by now its almost going close to crap. With nanotechnology and a 'trillion transisters' on a single chip, we should not only anticipate a great leap in raw processor power

  • Bill's weapon was originally micro and soft. In his old age he has been downgraded to nano and it is no longer possible to measure for any degree of stiffness.

    Mork says Bill's got a "nano nano"
    Bill says "I am trying to reach pico status"

    W1nd0z3 1s fa d0rks

  • Every four score fortnights somebody predicts molecular electronics is going to jsut SHOOT out of the gate in a year or two. This goes back to at least 1960. Someday they may be right.

    Also every other year, some new meaningless buzzword like oh, just picking one, "nanotechnology", invades every nitwit's predictions. They don't know what it means, you don't know what it means, but it sure sounds cool, whatever it is, and it gets four breathless pages in "Wired".

    Meanwhile the real advances usually com

  • It's gonna happen soonish, however it will, like all new technology, be buggy and expensive as fuck.
  • ...the oil runs out [abc.net.au], causing the global economy to collapse, so no money to develop these chips, nobody with money to buy them, no electricity to run them with.

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