Software Used To Predict Who Might Kill

eldavojohn writes "Richard Berk, a University of Pennsylvania criminologist, has worked with authorities to develop a software tool that predicts who will commit homicide. I could not find any papers published on this topic by Berk, nor any site stating what specific Bayesian / decision tree algorithm / neural net is being implemented." From the article: "The tool works by plugging 30 to 40 variables into a computerized checklist, which in turn produces a score associated with future lethality. 'You can imagine the indicators that might incline someone toward violence: youth; having committed a serious crime at an early age; being a man rather than a woman, and so on. Each, by itself, probably isn't going to make a person pull the trigger. But put them all together and you've got a perfect storm of forces for violence,' Berk said. Asked which, if any, indicators stood out as reliable predicators of homicide, Berk pointed to one in particular: youthful exposure to violence." The software is to enter clinical trials next spring in the Philadelphia probation department. Its intent is to serve as a kind of triage: to let probation caseworkers concentrate most of their effort on the former offenders most likely to be most dangerous.

popcorn

[Anonymous Coward]

Hey I've seen that movie! Tom Cruise survives and gets to have the cute girl!

I believe the answer was...

[macadamia_harold]

I could not find any papers published on this topic by Berk, nor any site stating what specific Bayesian / decision tree algorithm / neural net is being implemented.

Yeah, I think if you ask for it to answer that question, the algorithm responds "I'm sorry dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."

Guys we have a problem

[suv4x4]

Excerpt from the test:

...

21. Ever killed or tortured small animals?

22. If yes, did you often think they enjoyed it and wanted more?

23. Are you a minority?

24. Do you read Slashdot?

25. Regularly?

26. Would you punch a guy with glasses in the face?

27. Would you punch a clown in the balls?

...

Gun Ownership

[Anonymous Coward]

Why spend money to find-out what we already know? It's gun owners that commit nearly 100% of the murders in this country. If we put all of them in prison then we will all be safer. Unfortunately because many of those violent thugs have money and influence through the NRA we will never see a common sense approach to murder prevention. I will never understand why anyone other than a complete idiot would ever own one of those things given that it is 43 times more likely that you will kill yourself or a loved one with a firearm than kill in self-defense.

Hopefully with the much better congress we have now we'll finally get real laws to protect us like we had with the assault weapon ban that was passed by the last good congress that has saved thousands of lives. Many of us are still here only because of the good work the last good congress did.

Web version?

[8ball629]

I'd like to beta test this on myself ;).

Also, how long will it be before myspace users have this survey on their webpages or is it already there?

Be careful....

[djupedal]

"Do you make up these questions, Mr. Holden? Or do they write 'em down for you?"

"The tortoise lays on its back, its belly baking in the hot sun, beating its legs trying to turn itself over but it can't. Not without your help. But you're not helping."

"WHAT DO YOU MEAN, I'M NOT HELPING?"

"I mean you're not helping! Why is that, Leon?"

Before you commit a homicide

[suv4x4]

has worked with authorities to develop a software tool that predicts who will commit homicide.

Don't forget the best practices for committing a homicide:

1. Commit often and early, to prevent victim escape.

2. Copycat homicide is cheap, so don't be afraid to branch existing homicides, if you feel you need to.

3. While committing a homicide, always write down a full log of what happened, and put it with it with body (or bodies). This won't just help the cops get oriented, but also to yourself when you come back to the crime scene, say, an year later.

Re:Guys we have a problem

[smcn]

[quote]26. Would you punch a guy with glasses in the face?[/quote]
I don't know, having glasses in his face would be pretty painful already.

I'm actually a probation officer

[goldcd]

and tried a couple of similar package before. They're all snakeoil.
Nothing can replace years of professional practice and the ability to analyze the bumps on a perps skull.

Re:Web version?

[cbrichar]

Surely you've seen the web version already, it's been in Beta for years!

Punch the Monkey! Win fabulous prizes! *

*get tagged as a future homicidal maniac.

Arlo Guthrie QOTD

[bmo]

And I went up there, I said, "Shrink, I want to kill."

"I mean, I wanna, I wanna kill. Kill. I wanna, I wanna see, I wanna see blood and gore and guts and veins in my teeth. Eat dead burnt bodies. I mean kill, Kill, KILL, KILL!" And I started jumpin up and down yelling, "KILL! KILL!" and he started jumpin up and down with me and we was both jumping up and down yelling, "KILL! KILL!" And the sergeant came over, pinned a medal on me, sent me down the hall and said, "You're our boy."

--
BMO

Re:Maybe this will be as good as other psychologic

[Dunbal]

3) Do you ever fantasize about murder?

      I don't get it. This would include most married people...

Re:Moderators on drugs?

[Bloke down the pub]

True. We were always much better with the longbow.

Re:Reference

[DaFork]

Although less than 3% of the inmates studied over 24 months were reported for very serious misconduct, we are able to correctly forecast such behavior about half the time

I have a similar system that I have dubbed the "coin flip".

Now where's my research grant?

Re:I'm actually a probation officer

[sharkey]

analyze the bumps on a perps skull.

He was arrested by the LAPD, huh?

If only they'd run this on George Bush...

[Quickening]

...before he was elected. More than 750,000 people might still be alive.

Re:Edit: Bad Idea.

[UglyTool]

Or you could use the preferable ungood.

You know they are releasing the Ninth Edition soon, right?