Vista the End of An Era?

mikesd81 writes "The Times Online has an article about the uncertain future of Windows. Even Microsoft, it seems is admitting that Vista will be the last OS of its kind. With the push towards a constant presence on the internet, and the churn that entails, the company has admitted that even with a two year delay 'it is not really ready'." From the article: "Security experts are acknowledging that Vista is the most secure of Windows to date. However, 'The bad guys will always target the most popular systems,' Mikko Hypponen, of F-Secure, the security group, said. 'Vista's vulnerability to phishing attacks, hackers, viruses and other malicious software will increase quickly.' But the current fear is that the Internet will kill Windows, with Google being Public Enemy No. 1: 'Microsoft is way behind Google when it comes to the internet,' Rupert Godwins, the technology editor at ZDNet, the industry website, said. 'Building Vista, Microsoft is still doing things the old way at the same time as it undergoes a big shift to catch up.'"

Re:deja vu?

[alphasubzero949]

wasn't a story by that exact title and pretty much identical posted a couple months ago?

Yup. [slashdot.org]

Re:Not gonna happen

[grcumb]

All of this "The Net IS the OS" stuff is just ridiculous. This kind of thing doesn't even have a chance until broadband is as ubiquitous and as reliable as electricity.

Agreed. But consider that this is a failed conclusion from an observation which is emphatically true, and whose weight increases with every passing day: Microsoft Windows, as it is currently constructed, cannot compete in the long run with low- or no-cost software that is platform-neutral. The realisation that Microsoft is facing is this: The core of their entire business model will inevitably fail. Not today, not tomorrow, but sometime in the foreseeable future.

Everybody, Microsoft included, knows this is true. But the pundits seem to be extrapolating too far into the future, and they don't realise just how silly a thing this is to do, especially in the eyes of those of us who know a thing or two about computers and the Internet.

So let's just file this story in the same folder with our nuclear-powered flying car promises, and get back to the real question: How is Microsoft going to follow Vista?

Re:Not gonna happen

[Merusdraconis]

"Microsoft Windows, as it is currently constructed, cannot compete in the long run with low- or no-cost software that is platform-neutral."

The fact that it's not doesn't mean it can't. The Internet as a platform is mostly successful because of its killer apps (Youtube, blogs, Wikipedia et al.) Consumers don't care about platforms nearly as much as IT professionals think they do or should.

This doesn't change the fact that Microsoft is boned because it's losing to the Internet, and it doesn't change any of the arguments based on that premise. But it just wanted to make clear that it's not the inherent nature of the platforms but the apps for them that usually decide how the consumer responds.

Migrate to GNU/Linux, not Vista

[Anonymous Coward]

Our company did last year, cities of Vienna and Munich did, it should work out very nicely for you too. Our former XP users love KDE.

No need to put yourself through pains when you can improve security, save money and achieve a good deal of vendor independence all at the same time. Why support the Microsoft monopoly by paying ridiculous prices for bug ridden software with DRM restrictions, when you can run Free software on the industry standard (and thus inexpensive) hardware?

Knowing everything I know now, I only regret that we did not migrate to GNU/Linux sooner.

Re:millions of lines of code?

[Anonymous Coward]

Uh-oh...time to change my machine to run VMS, then. Linux is catching up to Windows, according to http://www.dwheeler.com/sloc/ [dwheeler.com] which says of RedHat 7.1: "It includes over 30 million physical source lines of code (SLOC)."

That article you are quoting from is including many things above and beyond the Linux kernel in it. I just download the 2.6.19 kernel and found that it contained at the most 26840 source files (C and assembly files) with a total of 12,982,514 SLOC. This includes ALL the architectures and drivers -- FAR more support than the Windows kernel provides. That 13 million lines were not stripped for comments and blank lines, so the real SLOC is probably closer to 10 million.

Re:After Vista, Windows will die

[bcrowell]

I wish I was as optimistic as you are. Some factors working against us:

1. Installing an OS is way too hard for most people, and MS has monopolistic deals with hardware comanies to keep them from preinstalling anything but Windows.
2. People have their data locked up in proprietary file formats, which can't be easily migrated to Linux and OSS.
3. The cost of Windows is hidden in the cost of the machine, so people don't even get presented with a price tag for $300. They don't realize that $300 of the purchase price for the machine was for Windows, and in any case, most people probably wouldn't consider that an unreasonable amount of money to pay for it.

Re:Not gonna happen

[Anonymous Coward]

Microsoft has actually been heading toward a support model (vs a license model) for a while now. Their entry into the CRM and ERP markets, which command healthy support contracts, and their corprate "licensing" which eliminates most upfront costs in favor of monthly or annual contracts, is a significant percentage of their income.

In addition, unlike their consumer OS, there are usually numerous good reasons to upgrade back office (Exchange, SQL, Share Point) and server products.

Re:Not gonna happen

[Almahtar]

Makes no money on support?!?!?! Do you have any idea how much Microsoft charges for tech support? It's off the charts! Honestly, the more people need to call Microsoft for support, the better. The only point at which it's a good idea for Microsoft to pull the plug on a product is when it's so vastly inferior and horrible that the money they make from customer support will be less than the money they lose in sales, and given their rates it takes a LOT of sales to make that happen.

It's my guess that this, not lack of ability or resources, is the primary reason that the Windows OS isn't the clear winner out there. Given an ungodly amount of resources which could hire the most brilliant minds, Microsoft still doesn't have the lead on a bunch of volunteers (Open Source) and a complete market underdog (Apple) technologically. Why? They make lots of money off of support.

Re:Not gonna happen

[Anonymous Coward]

Do you believe people now when they say in 100 years you won't sit in front of computers anymore because they're wired into your neural system and use wireless power?

Yes. Why on earth would you be using wireless power when you can burn calories and lose weight to get all the power you need?

Re:Not gonna happen

[Andrewkov]

That's because they are not happy with you just buying Office, then want you to buy it every year. Greedy bastards.