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What to Watch for in 2007 122

Posted by ScuttleMonkey
from the crystal-ball dept.
An anonymous reader writes "InformationWeek picks its '5 Disruptive Technologies To Watch In 2007.' The list, which is based on the idea that these are areas which will move into the mainstream this year, includes RFID, graphics processing engines, server virtualization, Web services, and mobile security." What made your list?
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What to Watch for in 2007

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  • Disruptive technologies? Anything that makes us more efficient tomorrow is disruptive to what fell short yesterday.

    1. CRITEO [criteo.com], the collaborative filter. They're moving forward with their API (it's free to register) and they're easy to integrate with from blogs and sites of all sorts. I'm a huge fan of collaborative filtering -- I think it's the next step beyond tagging.

    2. HSDPA - High Speed Download Packet Access. T-Mobile should finally roll out some 3G services, allowing video phone calls, faster connections from the road, and a wider coverage of high speed access other than WiFi. I'm interested in WiMax, but I don't have as much faith in the technology due to our ridiculously tyrannical FCC regulations. HSDPA will seriously work to replace my car radio, Skype over GPRS, and other dead media.

    3. More IP to POTS interaction. I'm really sick of the area code-phone number designations -- I use Skype for about 30% of my phone calls and 100% of my international phone calls, and I love it, but it isn't there yet. I can't wait for better ways to communicate vocally. My HTC Trinity P3600 phone supports WiFi, EDGE, GPRS and HSDPA -- hopefully soon we will see a move to an integrated POTS/WIFI(VOIP)/etc system where vocal communications can translate from one topology to another.

    4. More bandwidth. I was one of the first testers of xDSL in Illinois before it was a catchphrase. I had a 128k/128k SDSL that I used for "free" for 6 months and then paid $200 a month for at the end of the trial period. It changed my world. Now we're rocking crazy speeds, but they're still not enough. I'm still blown away at what I pay for Comcast's 8mbps connection (2mbps realistic). The next jump won't quite be an order of magnitude, but everything helps, especially when running remote desktops, desktop collaboration, and high-bandwidth SQL requests.

    5. Lower latency. I don't know if this will really happen, but I'm looking forward to even less lag. High bandwidth != low latency, and if anything I have seen worse latency lately than every before. My customers have been working harder to introduce faster websites, faster SQL responses and faster connections to their VPNs -- all to reduce latency. For me, latency is in the top 5 list of inefficiencies that slow me down. Reducing that inefficiency can likely double my producivity in many tasks.

    Top 5 list of non-issues but seem to be important to others:

    1. Mobile webpages. I run Firefox on my laptop tethered to my cell phone on the go. I also run Opera. Mobile websites sound great for the common phone, but the #1 reason why that is required is because cell phone companies lock out the ability to run better mobile web clients. Competition will hopefully knock this out -- releasing web designers from having to maintain a second mobile site (or a CSS that gives mobile sites better rendering).

    2. RFID. This is a non-issue for me because it just isn't secure. While it is easy to fake a barcode (for example, to barcode a costly item with a less costly barcode and trick the check-out clerk), I'm not sure how RFID will really change my life. If anything, that form of automation will make my life more inefficient in having to deal with the "human check" follow through to verify that the RFID information is correct.

    3. Credit Card security systems. I'm not concerned with credit card fraud. I hate Citibank -- they block my card about twice a week because I travel to a new city or country every week. If someone steals my card, I am not liable -- neither is Citibank. The retailer is. Security should be at the retail end. I do a chargeback, the merchant account provider charges back the merchant. End of story. I hate security on credit, it is ridiculous and limits me all the time.

    4. Web 2.0. I'm getting sick of Web 2.0 interfaces, even though they look slick and they seem to work well for some websites. More than anything, they make my life difficult because they're not alw
    • CSS is fine. CSS3 is even better. The problems you're encountering are just half-assed implementations of the standard, most likely in IE and Gecko (though webkit/khtml and Opera have known issues as well). The worst problems come from IE6 and IE7 where rendering bugs, improper implementation, and non-implementation of standards cause poor results with things that work just fine in all the other major browsers. Once you start applying (admittedly dodgy) workarounds, which are done by either restructuring yo
      • by minuszero (922125)
        CSS will be fine when it reaches a point where random behaviour, like the addition of a border to a cell doesn't move it up/down by 10px or so (yes, it happened), stops occurring.

        some of CSS is OK - the how it looks bit, mostly.
        the rest is abysmal, IMO. if i tell something "width: 100px; height: 200px;" i damn well expect it to be 100px wide, and 200px high. not 'only if it's in display:block',
        always.

        personally, i reckon it's about time we had a new web language from the ground up.
        fuck backwards compatibili
    • Low latency (Score:5, Interesting)

      by jd (1658) <imipak@noSPam.yahoo.com> on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @01:03AM (#17428952) Homepage Journal
      Well, talking to some InfiniBand engineers, the next big push will be in wide-area networks running over InfiniBand, not ethernet. They think they've cracked the issues involved in wide-area communications and I would not be surprised if they have. If so, I would expect LAN parties in the later half of the year to be InfiniBand based, or using some other high-speed fabric. (If IB is going that way, you seriously imagine the others will want to be put out of business? No. We can expect a lot of the really high-end fabrics to start generalizing.)

      I expect chip manufacturers to stop wasting time building more cores, more threads, etc. That doesn't scale linearly and gets horribly convoluted after a while. It is getting back to the level of complexity that caused RISC to evolve. AMD are already looking into building many specialist cores and this is a sensible way to go about things in many ways. 2007 may well spell the end of the "microprocessor" in favor of building a large number of specialist cores, producing a distributed processing unit, not a central one. Along with this, I also expect "Processor In Memory" to be revived as a technique - stuff that is small enough to be added to the RAM directly may as well be done entirely within RAM. There have been attempts at using this to reduce network latency - have the network stack within the memory itself. No bus traffic, so none of the problems of offload engines. Based on Cray's paper in this field, I'm guessing that you can cut latencies by 90% by this method, for stacks small enough to cram into memory.

      Provided development goes well and we can eliminate the infighting, political intrigue and backstabbing, an organization I am connected with should have a major piece of disruptive technology out this year. If it doesn't go well, then it might easily be another twenty years before anything is produced at all. Just remember, you didn't hear it here first.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by tm2b (42473)
        I seem to remember hearing the same thing about ATM [wikipedia.org] from FORE Systems [wikipedia.org] engineers, about 10 years ago.
      • by mrand (147739)
        <quote>Well, talking to some InfiniBand engineers, the next big push will be in wide-area networks running over InfiniBand, not ethernet. </quote>

        Talking to <b><i>InfiniBand engineers</b></i> and finding out that they think that <b><i>InfiniBand</b></i> will be the next big thing isn't all that surprising, is it? When I was doing hardware design on ATM transport boxes, I thought it was the next big thing too.

        <quote>They think they've cracked
      • The issue with latency for the most part is not network technology, its physics. While there are many techniques to improve performance over high latency links, for the most part latency is what is is going to be, until we figure out how to get electrons to move faster then the speed of light. And if you try and calculate the amount of time it would take from, say, the US to the UK and back (remember latency is calculated as RTT), don't forget that you have to take into account that C refers to the theore
        • But never underestimate the power of insanity. :) Yes, it takes X amount of time to move data from A to B. If you move that data twice over the same path at the same time, then the total is 2X, right? Well, not if you multicast. You can transmit to a million end-points the same data and take up exactly the same space on the wire. This means that you reduce the volume of what you move and the amount you have to interleave. Which is cool, because the backbones all have multicast enabled as standard. (Pity abo
    • Mobile web pages aren't important on cell sanymore because the providers try to keep you in their fence. I have a Verizon handset and the mobile web browser USED to be able to go to ANY mobile site on the web but now I am stuck in their walled garden. Examples are the FREE traffic web stuff on Google pluse just google searching at all. Verizon has both of them blocked. There's a software product called Metro which does subway time tables and would be damn useful in DC and Chicago when I go there and the
      • by CCFreak2K (930973)
        That's funny, my Cingular 3G service lets me browse the "mobile web" all I want (and the "regular web" through Opera). The charges for data are a different matter, though...
      • by DieNadel (550271)
        Just want to share my experience with Metro (although this is slightly off-topic).

        I use it every time I travel to Europe, and their coverage and update-rate is truly amazing. Specially Paris and most German cities. The "tourist" version of some cities even has the admittance price for points of interest (like museums).

        I use the PalmOS version in my Tungsten|W though.

        If you're planing a trip to Europe, check the Metro website [nanika.net].
      • In all fairness, your cable modem is tied to your cable; your EVDO handset will work anywhere you've got a signal. I'm willing to pay double for almost cable modem speeds wherever I need it.
    • Friend of mine lives in Fukuoka, Japan. Has fiber-to-the-house. Has had it for years. Pays less for it than you'd pay for xDSL or cablemodem here, and the bandwidth is incredible.

      I vote for the telcos actually rolling out all the fiber they promised us (and the FCC?) they would 15 years ago. They hung 72-strand SieCor in front of my folks' house back then, for commercial customers.
      • Re:More Bandwidth (Score:4, Insightful)

        by macshit (157376) <miles@@@gnu...org> on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @04:46AM (#17429860) Homepage
        Fukuoka, Japan. Has fiber-to-the-house. Has had it for years. Pays less for it than you'd pay for xDSL or cablemodem here, and the bandwidth is incredible.

        In Japan there are many more high-population density areas where people have a reasonably high average income, and as a result, there are many more companies competing to provide the same service: in one place, even in the suburbs, you'll get the telephone company, the cable company, and the electric company all building high-speed networks, including the final segment to individual homes/apartments. Any company that has any kind of pipes or conduit that might be used for optical fibers (the electric company strings them alongside the power lines) is putting them in, and they know they can't overcharge for long without getting destroyed by the competition in this environment.

        I dunno if the U.S. has the kind of density in many places to support that, or whether the utility companies have the competitive instinct to go for it even where it does make sense....
        • by jrumney (197329)
          Certainly the East Coast and California have the population density for it. A lot of the land area of Japan is sparsely populated and mountainous, but they are still comparatively well connected compared to the megapolitan areas of the US.
        • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

          by jackharrer (972403)
          UK is very similar to Japan. But nothing like this in place. Why?
          Copper is cheaper and most people have no clue about technology. It's easy to sell them anything.
          In contrast in Japan education system is much better than US/UK so people are more aware of new technologies. And their culture is different - they don't want to make a quick buck and f*ck their customers. Their ethics are totally different. Example? Look at their crime rate.

          Hope that helps with understanding.
          • by xtracto (837672)
            UK is very similar to Japan. But nothing like this in place. Why?

            Well, I used to live in a place in Liverpool where there was no cable access although I was pretty close to the city centre, I asked some folks in my LUG about it and they explained me that in the UK the cable companies run a "shared monopoly" on each area and that, on Liverpool Telewest was the only available cable provider (I did not want to contract a telephone *just* to use the internet as I dont do any kind of local calls and the only one
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by NDPTAL85 (260093)
      Credit Card security has to be done by the banks otherwise it'll take too long per transaction for the retailers to do it. I don't want to wait longer in line for some store to run thru whatever authorization system they may have come up with. Plus there's a lot less banks then there are retailers out there which means there would be an order of magnitude more systems to choose from if retailers handled it. It would be chaos. And for what gain? The small number of people who travel as often as you do? Besid
    • 3. Credit Card security systems. I'm not concerned with credit card fraud. I hate Citibank -- they block my card about twice a week because I travel to a new city or country every week. If someone steals my card, I am not liable -- neither is Citibank. The retailer is. Security should be at the retail end. I do a chargeback, the merchant account provider charges back the merchant. End of story. I hate security on credit, it is ridiculous and limits me all the time.

      I don't agree that the retailer necessarily

  • Includes? (Score:3, Funny)

    by Bo'Bob'O (95398) on Monday January 01, 2007 @11:38PM (#17428444)
    "this year, includes RFID, graphics processing engines, server virtualization, Web services, and mobile security."

    By my count, thats 5.
    • by khasim (1285) <brandioch.conner@gmail.com> on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @12:12AM (#17428636)
      #1. RFID - nothing "disruptive" about that. It's been showing up in different uses for a long time now.

      #2. Web Services -
      Software-as-a-service (Saas), mashups, Web 2.0, RSS feeds, Wikis, blogs, the rewritable Web, social networking spaces, group chat rooms -- no matter which aspect you're talking about, clearly something new is happening here.

      Yeah, "new" as in /. being around for years and years already.

      #3. Server Virtualization (for free)! - I've been using VMWare since the close of the last century. It's "disruptive" now that it will be "free"? Whatever.

      #4. Advanced Graphics Processing - Right. I'm sure everyone will find that typing their documents in 3d is so ..... the same as doing it on 2d.

      #5. Mobile Security -
      The perimeter is gone and the enterprise needs to protect itself from potentially infected remote users.

      The "perimeter" needs to be re-established and re-evaluated as "defense in depth" with multiple levels of stateful firewalls and intrusion detection.

      The stupid "scan the computer before you let it on the network" approach is too brittle. All it will take is the first virus / trojan / worm that can "reply" to that scan with faked credentials for the apps that are supposed to be scanned and you have an infected box on your network. Particularly with the new advances in rootkits for Windows.
      • by epee1221 (873140)
        #1. RFID - nothing "disruptive" about that. It's been showing up in different uses for a long time now.
        No, nothing disruptive until you need to wear a tinfoil suit to keep the insecure tags from broadcasting your SSN, credit card numbers, and other personal info to anyone who asks for it.
        • The same as the kind you buy right now to protect your iPod (but really to make it look different from everyone else's).

          You'll be able to buy "custom" wrappers, skins, protectors, whatever with built-in Faraday cages and little velcro flip-up windows to unshield your RFID chip.

          In fact, now would be a good time to start working on those designs and the marketing material.
      • by whoop (194)
        I'll just wait for the X-treme disruptive technologies!!!1!!

        koolness
    • by hcdejong (561314)
      Nobody expects the InformationWeek?
  • by Nom du Keyboard (633989) on Monday January 01, 2007 @11:38PM (#17428446)
    What made your list?

    Vista.

  • People complaining about RFIDs in passports, complaining about how software-over-the-web is just a way for companies to have a constant revenue stream without a physical product to show for it, complaining about "what will be hot in year 2XXX", complaining about how we've already had articles like this posted not long ago...
    • by fishbowl (7759)
      >People complaining about RFIDs in passports

      I am complaining about RFIDs in passports, not because I give a crap about them, but because the rush to get a passport *NOW* has disrupted my local *post office*, which had been a low-traffic, pleasant post office to use, and has become a nightmare because of all the damn paranoid passport people. What started this phenomenon? Please tell me Fox News didn't run a story on it.
  • by ColaMan (37550) on Monday January 01, 2007 @11:42PM (#17428472) Homepage Journal
    Keep an eye on cheese. No,no, not ordinary cheese. Cheese by itself is pretty interesting, granted. But there's something better - I'm talking about cheese over the internet.

    It's going to be bigger than tulips.

    Mark my words, in twelve months time your world will be changed beyond recognition because of internet-cheese.
    • by MollyB (162595)

      Mark my words, in twelve months time your world will be changed beyond recognition because of internet-cheese.
      Finally, since we've already had internet-crackers for ages...
  • by notext (461158) on Monday January 01, 2007 @11:43PM (#17428474)
    World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade

    Lives, Careers, Friends all disrupted.
    • by S810 (168676)
      WoW definately makes it. Also, the new LotR MMORPG as wel to be sure.
  • by TubeSteak (669689) on Monday January 01, 2007 @11:48PM (#17428512) Journal
    Ubiquitous spelling & grammar check for the internet.
    3rd party or built into the browser doesn't matter.

    That'll be the first step towards SkyNet becoming sentient.
    Otherwise, it'll just be a retarded "LoL n00b" AI.
    • >Ubiquitous spelling & grammar check for the internet.
      >3rd party or built into the browser doesn't matter.
      >That'll be the first step towards SkyNet becoming
      >sentient.
      >
      >Otherwise, it'll just be a retarded "LoL n00b"
      >AI.

      Which raises the question: why should we be afraid
      of SkyNet at all? All it's going to do is watch
      pr0n all day and send itself spam ...
  • another one (Score:3, Insightful)

    by ILuvRamen (1026668) on Monday January 01, 2007 @11:49PM (#17428518)
    Disruptive technologies to watch for, huh? I'm surprised they didn't mention even more advanced british cameras watching their citizens. People better watch for em cuz they'll sure be watching for people. With the latest loudspeaker and aggressive tone upgrades in 06, I bet some "disruptive" stuff is on the way this year. I'd bet any buck Britian will lead the way in AI camera technology in no time in the next year.
    • by GuyFawkes (729054) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @09:23AM (#17430862) Homepage Journal
      To be specific, I live in a small city called Exeter, in the southwest of the country.

      About six months ago a city woman was found wandering in the early morning, naked, confused and injured, she has been beaten and raped, since then she has had 159 days of hospital treatment and still ain't "right"

      We have these privacy invading CCTV cameras all over the shop, and the local paper and national press has been posting images from them, here is the attacker walking behind the woman in sidwell street, here is the attacker in paris street, here is the attacker in high street, basically there is 15 minutes video of this guy from every angle you could hope for.

      In CSI land they simply press the "enhance" button and keep zooming until you can see the suspects DNA.

      In reality, despite it being a high profile crime, CCTV produces images that make drunken 1st generation camera phones look high quality, except instead of being taken at arm's length from the face, which is what we use to identify people, it can easy be 100 yards away up a pole.

      Even if you could force pedestrians to walk slowly in a line underneath cameras focused on their faces, the analogy of the CCTV camera used to catch speeders on the road, or London congestion charging etc, it still would not work, because OCR is one thing, matching faces to identities is another.

      For example, it is trivial to OCR a vehicle number plate and flag a stolen car, or add a congestion charge, or a speeding fine, but this is not identity. You get the fine because your name is linked to the vehicle ownership, and the vehicle is linked to the registration number, which is all well and good, but if I see you driving into London every day in your Ford Ka (blue) while driving my Ford Ka (also blue) then all I need to do is use a copy of your number plate.

      CCTV is a lot of things, but the barriers to it being a serious curb on privacy or anything else are HUGE, 1080i CCTV cameras anyone, what you going to store the date stream on? what you going to process the images with?

      RFID does the job a lot easier, with a lot less computing power, a lot more redundancy, a lot more accuracy, lot less bandwidth, and it can be done today, cheap.

      The above long range blurry CCTV example, or the OCR of vehicle registration, is a feeble and distant cousing of.

      Subject is wearing sneakers bought by john smith with john smiths credit card
      subject is carrying mobile phone registered to john smith etc
      subject is carrying packet of mints and newspaper bought by john smith 10 minutes ago
      subject is wearing underwear bought by john smith
      subject is wearing prescription spectacles worn by john smith

      it won't pick up the acme disguise kit, stick on beard, trenchcoat, fedora, latex gloves, or anything else.

      Total bandwidth required, dunno, doubt it would saturate a 14.4k modem though, total processing power required, negligible, total cost, fuck all, after all the consumer goods vendors already provided the RFID tags, you already have the network, just need readers and some new software.

      The blurry CCTV will still be used.

      if the image looks like you it will be used as evidence, "see, it is john smith"
      if the image doesn't look like you it will be used as evidence "see, john smith is clearly wearing a disguise"

      If you had ANY idea how close they already are to real time with simply correlating credit card data and mobile phone cell lock records, you'd shit yourself.

      AT PRESENT the sheer volume of data, bandwidth and processing power means that this data is only actually processed AFTER the event, to identify terrorists and their final movements.

      It is a race between the increasing use of things like ID cards to provide more data that can be used for tracking, and technologies like RFID, in reality I suspect BOTH will complement each other, so to paraphrase Scott McNealy all those years ago, "Privacy, no such thing, it ALREADY doesn't exist"

      The Exeter rapist is still at large because we don't yet have RFID, and the shops were shut so not way to tie him into a credit card purchase, no cameras on hole in the wall cash machines and the only businesses open, pubs and takeaways, use cash.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Intron (870560)
        Yes. And after we catch the Exeter rapist we can use that same RFID system to identify people protesting the government, people associating with known or suspected criminals, people buying things that are disturbing, and people who are different from other people.
      • by mrmeval (662166)
        So I can put a politicians or judges license plate on my car and zoom zoom zoom? Sweet.

        Cameras have no depth perception. Just wear a mask of your favorite politician.

        Or Guy Fawkes.

      • by renoX (11677)
        >If you had ANY idea how close they already are to real time with simply correlating credit card data and mobile phone cell lock records, you'd shit yourself.

        Well, apparently assuming the rapist had a cell phone, they were not capable to link the cell phone the location data to identify the rapist, even after the fact.

        As always, the real problem is: who will guard the guardians?
        Politicians, cops are humain beings, what will ensure that the new capacities will only be used for good reasons?
      • by mibus (26291)
        If you had ANY idea how close they already are to real time with simply correlating credit card data and mobile phone cell lock records, you'd shit yourself.


        I can't speak for how it works in England, but what I've seen here in Australia doesn't concern me at all. Seriously.
  • by Kohath (38547) on Monday January 01, 2007 @11:55PM (#17428546)
    Wow, I got "mobile security" for Christmas. Thanks! This is going to change my life.
  • Huh (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Umbral Blot (737704) on Monday January 01, 2007 @11:58PM (#17428568) Homepage
    Would someone please tell me how server virtualization or graphics processing engines are disruptive. (Innovative, yes, but disruptive?)
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by reset_button (903303)
      Not only not disruptive, but not new. What amazes me is how they wrote about virtualization without mentioning Xen [xensource.com] or VMware [vmware.com].
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Would someone please tell me how server virtualization or graphics processing engines are disruptive. (Innovative, yes, but disruptive?)

      Server virtualization is disruptive in that Amazon, et.al. are replacing thousands of $2000 hardware with $700 virtual hardware. This is not disruptive to Amazon as a user, but it is quite disruptive to HP/Dell as providers.

      Virtualization's new in that it was rarely used in the recent past. Instead of big boxes running lots of things, the trend has been towards commodity boxes running in clouds or doing small tasks. Apparently the hardware (compiler?) dynamics are currently such that big iron is economi

      • by Retric (704075)
        VM's are about using a higher percentage of cycles vs. cheaper cycles.

        If you have 1 process that needs 30 cpu's then cheep boxes win.
        If you have 300 processes that need 30 cpu's then VM's win.
    • by badfish99 (826052)
      Server virtualization? Innovative??
      Yes, back in 1972 [wikipedia.org] it was.
    • by div_2n (525075)
      Server virtualization is disruptive because it is a giant leap towards marginalizing the server space where servers become more like applications that can be loaded/unloaded at a whim, moved from server to server in real time and backed up with incremental changes logged so that you can roll a server back to a previous state in very little time. Of course, Linux and the BSD variants stand poised to take quick advantage of this since there are no licensing costs. Want a new DNS server? Create a virtual machi
  • Come on you guys, no Neuronet? The soon-to-be replacement of teh Internets, the powerful and mysterious thick pipes that will allow full immersive virtual reality in exchange for your domain registrations and membership fees?

    I feel disenfranchised.
  • by libkarl2 (1010619) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @12:10AM (#17428622)
    is when you they decide not to work properly (if at all).

    I find articles written by starry eyed techno-prognosticators are quite possibly more disruptive than anything that has come out in the past 4 years, (possibly withthe exception of DRM: a truly disruptive technology).
    • Amen. DRM is going to be waaaay more disruptive than virtualization or, uh, shiny graphics.

      Do you use a computer? Are you in any way involved in the consumer computer industry? How about the creation of digital media content? Do you like music, movies or pictures? If you said yes to any of these, DRM is going to be a major pain in YOUR ass.
      • Do you use a computer? Are you in any way involved in the consumer computer industry? How about the creation of digital media content? Do you like music, movies or pictures? If you said yes to any of these, DRM is going to be a major pain in YOUR ass.

        Amazing. Tell me, how big a pain has iTunes been now? Or the CSS on the DVDs your grandma bought? Because that's the consumer level of tolerance for DRM, and as far as PITAs go, it's kinda minor.

        • by fishbowl (7759)

          >Amazing. Tell me, how big a pain has iTunes been now?

          Well, Itunes did require me to deal with a woman who was literally sent into a murderous rage when it erased her ipod without warning.

  • Less clicking (Score:5, Informative)

    by reset_button (903303) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @12:12AM (#17428642)
    Entire article on one page [informationweek.com]
  • by Mogster (459037)
    Duke Nukem Forever is released causing a widespread rift in the fabric of space and time
    • by Tatarize (682683)
      Dude! Any fricking day now. They have told us, they are really close now. I hear it's going to be bad ass. A decade in the making.
      • by Mogster (459037)

        A decade in the making.
        We'll all be whisked back to '97 allowing 3D Realms to claim the shortest major game development in history. Vapourware will cease to exist, and ./ will fold in on itself and collapse into a singularity
  • by syousef (465911) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @12:18AM (#17428694) Journal
    That's what I'm tipping for this year. A DRM drunk OS and the acceleration of the political maddness we've seen over the last few years. I'm tipping we'll see harsh and draconian enforcement against individuals of the criminal IP laws we've allowed to pass over the last few years too. Happy f'ing new year.
  • eInk Displays (Score:3, Interesting)

    by LBt1st (709520) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @12:23AM (#17428730)
    I'm shocked this hasn't been mentioned. I'm pretty sure were going to start seeing eInk displays all over the place.
    • by ricree (969643)
      Personally, I doubt we will see them become all that widespread until at least 2008. We will probably see them become a lot more common than they are now, but they aren't really ready to become widespread yet.
    • I have stopped holding my breath re eink.

      But sure, there seems to be some appliances coming. Now we just wait for e.g. support from the major book publishers -- and a good code browsing/annotation application.

  • by earthforce_1 (454968) <earthforce_1@@@yahoo...com> on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @12:40AM (#17428814) Journal
    Massively parallel software development will move towards the mainstream as CPUs with 4 or more cores start to become mainstream. Inherently parallel languages such as system C intended for hardware design (and never really took off in this arena) may garner a second life as a way to reuse C/C++ libraries in environments with large numbers of processor cores running in parallel. Software engineers will eventually have to wrap their brain around the concepts found in HDL languages such as Verilog/VHDL whee everything is assumed to happen in parallel, with program state changes at defined synchronization/clock intervals.
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by ClosedSource (238333)
      I wouldn't go too far with the hardware analogy. Synchronization in digital hardware is needed because of the unequal delays in different gate paths and determining the worst case timing is trivial by comparison to a similar calculation on software functions. On modern PC's caches can cause significant timing variations so synchronization based on time intervals would be quite problematical. Of course, one could probably choose a time interval so long that these variations would be swallowed, but you'd have
  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @12:43AM (#17428852)
    I predict that Slashdot will fix the Y99 Dates in 2007

    http: //it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/01/01/2359254

    would become:

    http: //it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=2007/01/01/235925 4
    • by HeroreV (869368)
      I just wish they would actually show the year all the time. It's extremely annoying when I'm looking at something old and I can't figure out what year it was posted in. Two digits is better than no digits.
    • by ceoyoyo (59147)
      I doubt it's a priority. After all, you can probably figure out that there were no Slashdot postings until sometime in the 90's, even if you don't know the particular date. So they've got eighty-some odd years to fix it.
  • by ameline (771895) <ian...ameline@@@gmail...com> on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @01:03AM (#17428948) Homepage Journal
    From the article; "Nvidia has had its CUDA program for several years now to assist developers that want to harness their graphics engines for computational applications."

    Nuh uh. CUDA is new with the G80. They may have had something going, but it wasn't cuda.

    As for being disruptive -- maybe using the GPU for computation will speed some things up -- those things that are extremely parallelizable, and single precision FP -- thats about it. The GPUs are not easy to program to -- CUDA is pretty tricky, and it's fairly well tied to nVidia's new architecture (I don't see ATI adopting it). The stuff from PeakStream and RapidMinds is a bit higher level, and can work on both ATI and nVidia chips, both have their pros and cons. It's early days yet for this -- I don't see it catching on in a big way for another couple of years. Then I think it will catch on in a big way -- but the tools are too immature at the moment for that to happen, and it's hard to predict what is going to catch on. Anyone interested in this stuff should be paying close attention to all of them -- I know I am.

  • A better list (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Animats (122034) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @01:23AM (#17429080) Homepage
    Those are kind of lame predictions. We can do better.

    • Telcos move into the music business. We're about to see a big collision - phone companies vs. the music industry. The music player will move into the phone, and the telcos will control music distribution. Big losers: broadcast radio and Apple.
    • Flat-screen TVs pass CRT sales. 2007 will be the year Joe Sixpack gets a flat screen. Look for low-end units with fewer cables and connectors.
    • Semi-automatic driving deployment begins. The driverless car is coming. In the meantime, we're starting to see cars shipping with systems that prevent rear-end collisions. Those systems will acquire more control authority.
    • ISP authentication of client systems starts. Microsoft's system for authenticating systems during DHCP negotiation starts to be adopted by ISPs. This has many implications, some related to DRM, others to spam. Look for things like "you have to run Vista to send more than three e-mails per hour" as a way to make a dent in the zombie problem.
    • Robots start to matter. There's been quite a bit of progress lately. Look for more machines doing real work in service industries.
    • by CapitalT (987101)
      "Semi-automatic driving deployment begins. The driverless car is coming. In the meantime, we're starting to see cars shipping with systems that prevent rear-end collisions. Those systems will acquire more control authority."

      Don't glitch and drive!
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by TodMinuit (1026042)
      The driverless car is coming.

      Never, ever will happen for legal reasons. Car companies themselves stated this in the early 90s after some of the first tries at driverless cars were made.
    • by mattkime (8466) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @03:05AM (#17429504)
      >>Telcos move into the music business.

      Telcos? No way!

      The GAS companies!

      Why? Bigger tubes.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by umbrellasd (876984)

      Robots start to matter.

      Robots have always mattered. It's just that for a long time, no one cared that they did. In the near future, many of us will be replaced by robots, and then we'll care very much about robots, since we'll mostly be robots. We've always been quite excellent at caring about ourselves, after all.

      The economic implications of robots are enormous. Historically, the higher the efficiency of a worker at producing the necessities of life, the greater the disparity between the wealthy a

    • Flat-screen TVs pass CRT sales. 2007 will be the year Joe Sixpack gets a flat screen. Look for low-end units with fewer cables and connectors.

      According to my print edition of the Wall Street Journal [wsj.com] (expensive subscription required), flat screen TVs already passed CRT sales in the Christmas 2006 season. In fact, the two big winners in the November to December Christmas season were the Nintendo Wii and HDTV-capable flat screen TVs.
  • by doormat (63648) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @01:41AM (#17429156) Homepage Journal
    Last I checked it is disruptive now. One 4p server hosting 20VMs. Saving power, saving space, etc.
  • Caution (Score:4, Funny)

    by umbrellasd (876984) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @02:38AM (#17429386)
    These many answers are good, but I think we should all be wary of the Spanish Inquisition. No one ever expects them, possibly due to their many elements of surprise...let's see, there was uhm...
  • See it all at once! (Score:2, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Want to see the whole article at once? So do I!

    [printable version]
    http://www.informationweek.com/shared/printableArt icle.jhtml?articleID=196800208 [informationweek.com]
  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @03:34AM (#17429612)
    - The first U.S. Passport RFID virus.
    - The first virus to successfully attack the passport reader at an airport.
    - A marketing gadget that enables Mobile-spam phone calls via automatic IMI look-up.
    - Binary or Trinary component virii that adapt by downloading components off the web based on the environment they execute in.
    - Hardware Update viruses that embed themselves into the Flash-ROM of your devices and cannot be removed.
    - Botnets on cellphones.
    - "Spam servelet" applications that do something actually useful (contact management, phonebook, etc) in order to disguise their primary function as open-relays.
    - IT wages to continue to decline as PHB's start believing "Network Management for Dummies" sales-droids.
    - Singapore becomes the next IT Out-sourcing capital of the world after American companies realize that 'pore labor is even cheaper and better educated than Indian, and a 'porean speaks better English.
    - 'Firmware-By-Software-Driver' companies panic after a buffer-overflow exploit cripples Vista.
    - Microsoft tries to buy more bloggers, and fails miserably, again.
    - Some middle-eastern country becomes the first nation to be suborned into a single bot-net.
    - 'Dumbing Down' of American Television continues. The number of people who cannot find Canada on the map sky-rockets.
    - A 'Family First' politician resigns over a sex-scandal with a neighbor.
    - A 'Ethics First' politician commits suicide over a sex-for-influence scandal.
    - Hollywood releases the first movie in 30 years that is worth paying full ticket price to see again.
    - The RIAA sues someone who doesn't even know what a computer is for downloading music illegally.

  • ... to see 'Web services' in that list. AFAIK Web services are used already in many applications. Maybe not calling it selves 'web services', but still...

    So I wonder: What exactly people consider "main stream"? Quantification (how many people use it) or advertising/popularity (how many people scream "I use web services and I'm happy with it")?
    • AFAIK Web services are used already in many applications

      It's been the year of web services for the last five years. It's just a freaking tool. Sometimes it's the right tool for the job, sometimes not. We've got some mid-managers at one of my contracts that think web services are the solution to every IT problem and overlook other more secure and convenient solutions in their headlong quest to implement the tech buzzwords of yesteryear.

      Not coincidentally these are the same people who took a working a

  • Boo! Hiss! These technologies are not nearly disruptive enough!

    How about an actual, working neural disruptor? Or an off the shelf EMP generator? Where are my touchless tasers? What about a new growler, with digital cycling of frequencies for maximum, ear-bleeding auditory annoyance?

    I would settle for a better stinkbomb - more farty, if you please.

    I'm just saying, if we're talking disruptive, let's be disruptive. I read the article looking for real goodies and ended up suffering fatigue and dismay.

  • Digital Restrictions Managament (DRM) is getting more and more so every year. This is a truely disruptive technology, disrupting your ability to use material you have paid to be able to watch/listen to.
  • by svunt (916464) on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @07:14AM (#17430348) Homepage Journal
    Web 2.0 was a lot of hype, but I hear they're bringing out the point release this year. Web 2.1 will be the shit.
  • I'm really looking forward to (video) games being more and more useful in real life; for example, the end of 2006 saw the launch of Wii, which helps nerds excersize (of course, let's not forget DDR for the same reasons :)). Then there have been games which inadvertently teach problem solving skills (although somewhat limited to real-life application) since the dawn of computer games. And then there's MMOs, which encourage social interaction. I'd like to see 2007 herald more and more "useful" games - perhaps
  • Disruptive to no end!
  • I hope it's indi (Score:3, Interesting)

    by tcopeland (32225) <<tom> <at> <thomasleecopeland.com>> on Tuesday January 02, 2007 @10:03AM (#17431068) Homepage
    e.g., get indi [getindi.com]. Sure cuts down on spam, and you can reliably transfer large files within a group of people.

    Plus, it's probably the largest desktop out there that uses Flash for its primary user interface. w00t!
  • by bioglaze (767105)
    Somebody divides by zero and Earth explodes.
  • Is Windows Vista on that list?
    • Is Windows Vista on that list?

      No, because fewer than 17 percent of businesses have any plans to rollout Vista this year, and it's even less popular with consumers.

      This is the year of the Linux Laptop - at least for me it is. If my games don't work on my new Wii console, or my son's mid-2006 Mac Mini, they darn well better work on Linux or WinXP, cause many of us including myself aren't going to shell out $2000 or more for a new laptop that offers features that Mac OS has had for years, when our current Win
  • I'd be interested in reviewing what last year's results were to see how close they came... anyone have those?
  • Is that because it's now in the mandatory passports we need to travel to Mexico and Canada starting this year, or because it's embedded in our underpants and tube socks?

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