Newton's Ghost Haunts Apple's iPhone 381
PetManimal writes "David Haskin has looked back at why the Newton failed in the early PDA market, and warns that Apple may be setting itself up for a similar failure with the iPhone. The iPhone shares with the Newton a hefty starting price, and Joe Public may not be so keen on the cost, as recent survey data suggests. Moreover, the iPhone will have to deal with two additional factors that were not issues for the Newton: Competition, and wireless service providers: 'Besides overcharging for iPhone, Apple faces significant competition, something it didn't face in 1993 when it launched Newton. And you can bet that competition from the likes of Samsung and LG will both be good (although probably not as good as iPhone) and most assuredly cheaper... I'm more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular. If Apple doesn't respond quickly by lowering the price and making nice to AT&T..., iPhone may well become Apple's next Newton.'"
Rather than just lowering the price (Score:3, Interesting)
The iMac/eMac of the iPhones!
The iPhone mini!
Re:Non-changeable battery (Score:3, Interesting)
RTFPPIYOP
(That is - Read the Fine Previous Paragraph in Your Own Post)
It needs to be fairly wide and tall to make the touch screen work. Adding a removable battery (hatch, internal compartment, contacts, rigid case for the battery...) would make it wide, tall and thick. At least it is (presumably) charge-by-USB, so you won't need multiple power adaptors.
Well, before Apple did a phone this was a strong argument as to why they didn't need one - you'd feel a right wally walking around in the rain looking for the last payphone in the county because you'd used up your phone battery playing Tetris and listening to music. Its not as if a RAZR, an iPod Nano and a DS Lite are going to overload the typical manbag.
Now, Steve Jobs could have bet the farm on the general public agreeing with this, and that Sony et. al. will fail with Walkman phones etc. but hedging your bets never hurts. In any case, if the iPhone flops, Apple just take out the transmitter, drop the price and you're left with a pretty cute iPod Video DeLuxe - which wouldn't have been possible if they'd made a more "phone-y" phone.
Re:Non-changeable battery (Score:5, Interesting)
For example, my wife and I both have Treos we use pretty heavily, and neither of us have ever had a need or desire to change the battery on-the-fly, nor have we gotten new batteries even after a couple of years. Our usage patterns mean that not changing the battery midday works perfectly fine for us. And by the time we'd even need to replace the battery for degradation reasons, we'll both have new phones.
Others will always carry spare batteries with them, and know in advance they need or want this capability on iPhone. For those, iPhone is obviously not appropriate. Thankfully, no one is forcing them to buy one!
There will also be a third group of people: those who think they need to be able to change the battery routinely, but actually don't, and never even have on any phone they've owned. Some people who currently have smartphone/PDA class devices who have never changed batteries will be in this group. We'll call this the "FUD" or "iPod's Dirty Secret" group.
Actually, I think the biggest problem with the battery isn't that it's not quickly user-accessible; it's going to ultimately be whether or not Apple requires the phone to be sent in to have its battery replaced. Personally, I would hope they would be replaceable on-demand while you wait at any Apple or AT&T/Cingular corporate store. Sending your phone in for a week if and when you need a new battery won't fly.
On the other hand, Apple is also operating under the presumption that many people will want to - and in fact do - replace their phones when the subsidy contract period is up. Therefore, the number of people who actually do need a battery replacement while the device is in service as a phone (as opposed to keeping it as an iPod) will be small. There will also no doubt be numerous third-party and do-it-yourself solutions, likely including higher capacity batteries as they become available, just as there are with iPod. However, I still admit I was very surprised that Apple went the way of the iPod with the iPhone, in terms of the battery setup.
In any case, all of the power accessories for iPod already work with iPhone, and there will be large groups of customers - indeed, the vast majority - who won't be affected by not being able to replace the battery on the fly. Now, I can see some people saying "what if I want to watch my hour of TV on the train ride to work, and then again on the way home, and listen to music all day, and make four hours of voice calls" and such, but I think the answer is that the battery life will work for some people, and for others it won't. Still others will realize that they have power outlets or USB ports or cigarette lighters around them all day long, and having to use them for iPhone is just, well, the tradeoff of wanting an iPhone (if they're in fact in the group who exhausts the battery every day).
I'm tracking iPhone battery issues here [iphonebatteryfaq.com] as they develop. Disclaimer: that is my site, and it does have Google AdSense. As was the case with iPod, I really don't think it will be a big deal for iPhone, save for a vocal minority. I wonder how long we'll have to wait for an iPhone's Dirty Secret movie that intentionally misrepresents the situation [ipodbatteryfaq.com]?
Re:Problems with the European market; iPhone's not (Score:3, Interesting)
You're assuming that Apple won't upgrade the phone for the market. The unit technically has all the right software facilities, it just needs a smidge of different hardware. There's little doubt in my mind that when Apple is ready to crack the European market, they will have the necessary CDMA/TDMA hardware ready. Especially if they try and support the Sprint Nextel CDMA network before they make the move to Europe.
Re:Got it wrong about competition (Score:4, Interesting)
As for other cell phones having more features, all I want is a phone that's easy to dial and easy to use. I'm willing to bet Apple will have this part covered pretty well.
Re:Problems with the European market; iPhone's not (Score:3, Interesting)
Please excuse the noob questions. I've only used Sprint phones (CMDA?)...and not familiar with the GSM stuff. Can you explain or give some links about these differences between 2G and 3G phones? What is better with which one...what exactly does one do better on 3G in Europe than 2G here in the US?
I'd heard that the GSM phones have slower data speeds than the Sprint type networks...is this true?
Thanks in advance..still trying to sort this all out as I try to decide on going with the iPhone and switching providers for the first time ever.....
I've been happy with SprintPCS....decent pricing, good voice reception and coverage, and I like being able to easily tether my phone to my laptop via bluetooth when I need an internet connection, and I don't have to pay extra for it (works with the Vision package). Can you do that with GSM and GSM providers' packages?
Re:Got it wrong about competition (Score:3, Interesting)
The iPod had less features than it's competitors when it came out as well. Unlike the asian markets, where people want millions of features that they will rarely, if ever use, the american consumer wants just a few features that are simple to use and work very well. This is why Apple won with the iPod, and this is why Apple will win again with the iPhone.