Computer Software to Predict the Unpredictable

Amigan writes "Professor Jerzy Rozenblit at the University of Arizona was awarded $2.2Million to develop software to predict the unpredictable — specifically relating to volatile political and military situations." From the article: "The software will predict the actions of paramilitary groups, ethnic factions, terrorists and criminal groups, while aiding commanders in devising strategies for stabilizing areas before, during and after conflicts. It also will have many civilian applications in finance, law enforcement, epidemiology and the aftermath of natural disasters, such as hurricane Katrina."

computer?

[onemorehour]

Sure, no problem. The software should work fine, as long as you find a computer powerful and irrational enough to run it [wikipedia.org].

Well...

[427_ci_505]

Didn't see that one coming.

It's A TRAP!

[lennier]

The Asymmetric Threat Response and Analysis Project, known as ATRAP, is a massively complex set of computer algorithms (mathematical procedures) that sift through millions of pieces of data.

They come right out and say it...

Re:computer?

[schwaang]

I'm absolutely certain such systems would be greeted as liberators from the drudgery of all the planning we do now for these complicated military and political situations.

Reason

[HTH NE1]

From "Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency," by Douglas Adams,
New York: Simon and Schuster, 1987.

"Well," he said, "it's to do with the project which first made the software incarnation of the company profitable. It was called Reason, and in its own way it was sensational."

"What was it?"

"Well, it was a kind of back-to-front program. It's funny how many of the best ideas are just an old idea back-to-front. You see, there have already been several programs written that help you make decisions by properly ordering and analysing all the relevant facts.... The drawback with these is that the decision which all the properly ordered and analyzed facts point to is not necessarily the one you want.

"... Gordon's great insight was to design a program which allowed you to specify in advance what decision you wished it to reach, and only then to give it all the facts. The program's task, ... was simply to construct a plausible series of logical-sounding steps to connect the premises with the conclusion." ....

"Heavens. And did the program sell very well?"

"No, we never sold a single copy.... The entire project was bought up, lock, stock, and barrel, by the Pentagon. The deal put WayForward on a very sound financial foundation. Its moral foundation, on the other hand, is not something I would want to trust my weight to. I've recently been analyzing a lot of the arguments put forward in favor of the Star Wars project, and if you know what you're looking for, the pattern of the algorithms is very clear.

"So much so, in fact, that looking at Pentagon policies over the last couple of years I think I can be fairly sure that the US Navy is using version 2.00 of the program, while the Air Force for some reason only has the beta-test version of 1.5. Odd, that."

Sunny and mild

[Anonymous Coward]

Okay, sunny and mild. Now you hold up your end of the deal.

What?! You said nothing about accuracy...

We will finally know...

[Sunshinerat]

..when Duke Nukem Forever will be released.

And to be honest, this alone is worth the expense.

If the prediction is wrong, whose fault is it?

[z-j-y]

politicians?

Re:Can it predict the weather six months out?

[onemorehour]

Can it predict the weather six months out?

Of course it can--did you even read the link?

It will just take about six months to calculate the result.

The Chinese plan...

[meburke]

Chinese researchers today announced $10.2 million (USD) funding for a system to predict the outcomes of unpredictable outcomes predicted and influenced by US ATRAP computing, with the goal of further influencing the the outcomes to produce a balance-of-trade advantage for China and producing a complete domination of Taiwan...

Cease and Desist Order

[MrCopilot]

Professor Jerzy Rozenblit,

Be advised the Foundation has Patents covering the areas of study and interest.

H. Seldon

I for one...

[tjstork]

Welcome the flim flam predicting the unpredictable coding in a bunch of random number generating overlords.

What a waste of 2 million bucks.

Stability

[mechsoph]

If the system is stable, you iterate until the error is negligible. If it's unstable, you spend your grant money on hookers, blow, and a ticket to Mexico, though perhaps not in that order.

It'll have great military applications

[Centurix]

Major: Sir, the computer has given us a plausible scenario for operation Sandy Whirlwind
General: OK Major, lets see what this pile of junk has to say for itself
Major: It says that we can overcome all undesirable outcomes by sending in CL22 using a classic scissor movement.
General: Let me see that! How did the computer even know about CL22, our crack regiment of killer circus clowns! That's amazing!
Major: There's more sir. It also talks about project CC.
General: Project CC! The stealth car capable of carrying thousands of CL22 troops in a vehicle the same size as Robin Reliant? How did the computer even know about that project, it's only been discussed between myself and my 2 year old daughter!
Major: This program is amazing sir. Have another star.

Re:computer?

[cheater512]

Predicting especially the US Army isnt terribly difficult.
You could do it with a switch:

switch (case)
{
    default:
        fireAtWill();
}

Re:It's A TRAP!

[hazem]

Well, it's natural considering its predecessor was the Complex Response Analysis Project, but after huge overruns, that project had to be flushed.

Re:Cease and Desist Order

[The_mad_linguist]

Mister Hari Seldon,

I knew you'd say that.

J. Rozenblit