The Economist's Technology Predictions For 2008 117
mrcgran notes an article in The Economist with three technology predictions for 2008. Normally they're pretty good on technology, and the predictions seem sound enough, but the article contains a couple of bloopers. "1. Surfing will slow: The internet is not about to grind to a halt, but as more and more users clamber aboard to download music, video clips and games... surfing the web is going to be more like traveling the highways at holiday time. You'll get there, eventually, but the going won't be great. 2. Surfing will detach: Internet will doubtless be as popular among mobile-internet surfers as among their sedentary cousins. 3. Surfing — and everything else computer-related — will open: Rejoice: the embrace of 'openness' by firms that have grown fat on closed, proprietary technology is something we'll see more of in 2008... Since the verdict against SCO, Linux has swiftly become popular in small businesses and the home, largely the doing of Ubuntu 7.10. And because it is free, Linux become the operating system of choice for low-end PCs. Neither Microsoft nor Apple can compete at the new price points being plumbed by companies looking to cut costs."
You forgot one thing there... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Seems to confuse some with 2020... (Score:5, Insightful)
What rather makes a difference is what operating systems new PC's use to come with and how well marketed this OS is. I don't really see a paradigm shift here among OEM's
The paradigm shift has already occurred. 5 years ago, if you wanted to buy a desktop with Linux pre-installed, you either built it yourself, bought a custom-built from your local computer shop, or dug through the back areas of a limited number of computer suppliers. Today, I can go into a Wal-Mart and get one off the shelves, or pick up the phone and order one from any of several major OEMs. It's no longer a case of being forced to pay the "Windows tax" even if you weren't going to use Windows. What's even more impressive is the sales figures - and this is likely to grow.
This doesn't mean that I think that in 2008 Windows will collapse and Linux will supplant it. I do think that this is one of the best opportunities for Linux in quite some time. You have a series of blunders by the dominant desktop OS provider, combined with an OSS alternative that is finally easy enough, with enough applications, for the average user to use. What this means is that you're going to see Linux start to increase its user base, as well as its mindshare.
Re:So in other words... (Score:2, Insightful)
hmm (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:So in other words... (Score:3, Insightful)
Every year is going to be the year of Linux because the previous years claim of year of Linux fell a bit short. Again.
Linux is a great operating system. It's flexibility, versatility, open standards and lets face it, cost of ownership make it very attractive to technical applications. It will always fall short in the typical desktop market because it is perceived as being something geeky.
Hasn't this been said every year before? (Score:1, Insightful)
Haven't they been predicting a Lunix victory on the desktop since... well, since the very beginning of Lunix?
Also, if any business things using Teh Lunix is going to cost less, they obviously have never tested it. Your support costs skyrocket with Teh Lunix. Just ask the City of Munich how good their Lunix total conversion has gone. Seeing as how 80% of their desktops are running Windows in a VM, the only thing Lunix has added is a needless layer of complexity. Oh, and redundancy of costs, but the highly paid consultants they have providing support aren't complaining.
What I find sad every year is that people's "predictions" always end up as more of a wish list than predictions. My prediction is that the number of Lunix users remains essentially flat, just like it has for the past decade. Even Apple's "Switch" campaign didn't really result in any new users... and their disasterous "Leoptard: It Just Works" campaign sure didn't help people think Apple was any better.
The problem Lunix and Apple are running in to is that, at the end of the day, 99% of people don't care, and don't view their operating system as an expression of their lifestyle. They just want to sit down at their computer and do stuff- they've spent a decade becoming marginally proficient with Windows. None of them look forward to spending the next decade becoming marginally proficient with a different operating system.
Economist is F***ing ignorant (Score:3, Insightful)
Spam does *NOT* constitute 90% of all internet traffic. It constitutes 90% of all emails. At 10-to-15 kbytes each, they're not exactly overwhelming the internet. I should also point out that an email with multiple recipients at the same ISP goes as one email, and is exploded into multiple copies at the receiving ISP. This reduces the internet traffic even more. The biggest single traffic use is bittorrent and friends. Streaming video and legit online/download sales of movies might challenge it in future.
2) Soon, portable media-players, personal navigators, digital cameras, DVD players, flat-panel TV sets, and even mobile phones won't be able to function properly without access to the internet.
OMFG, NNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! The only way you'll see that is if linux is outlawed, and DRM-crippled computers/mediaplayers won't function without a live connection to the mothership.
3) Apple's initial response was to attempt a heavy-handed crackdown. But then a court decision in Germany forced its local carrier to unlock all iPhones sold there. Good news for iPhone owners everywhere: a flood of third-party applications is now underway.
The decision was overturned on appeal [sfgate.com] three weeks ago.
4)The trend toward openness has been given added impetus by the recent collapse of the legal battles brought by SCO, a software developer. Formerly known as Santa Cruz Operations, the firm bought the Unix operating system and core technology in 1995 from Novell (which, in turn, had bought it from its original developer, AT&T).
Dear Economist, please hire Dan Lyons. He's a helluva lot more knowledgable about the SCOX case than you are. Sad, isn't it? Santa Cruz Operations sold their Unix distribution business to Caldera, who later renamed themselves The SCO Group and started trying to shake down linux users.
5)Pressured by worried customers fearing prosecution, a handful of Linux distributors settled with SCO just to stay in business.
NO. A handful of firms that use linux in their business signed SCOSource licences. None of these firms were linux distributors. The reporter might be confusing the SCOSource licence, with Microsoft's FUD licence, which a few distributors actually have signed.
And fer-cryin-out-loud, please knock off this bit about "The Year Of The Linux Desktop". Linux is growing slowly, relative to the overall market. It will overtake Apple, and eventually Windows. But it will be a long slow grind. What might happen is that one year people will stop counting sales (obviously $0 even for millions of free copies) and start counting desktops. Much to the establishment's surprise, they'll discover that there's a helluva lot more linux desktops than they expected.