The Economist's Technology Predictions For 2008

mrcgran notes an article in The Economist with three technology predictions for 2008. Normally they're pretty good on technology, and the predictions seem sound enough, but the article contains a couple of bloopers. "1. Surfing will slow: The internet is not about to grind to a halt, but as more and more users clamber aboard to download music, video clips and games... surfing the web is going to be more like traveling the highways at holiday time. You'll get there, eventually, but the going won't be great. 2. Surfing will detach: Internet will doubtless be as popular among mobile-internet surfers as among their sedentary cousins. 3. Surfing — and everything else computer-related — will open: Rejoice: the embrace of 'openness' by firms that have grown fat on closed, proprietary technology is something we'll see more of in 2008... Since the verdict against SCO, Linux has swiftly become popular in small businesses and the home, largely the doing of Ubuntu 7.10. And because it is free, Linux become the operating system of choice for low-end PCs. Neither Microsoft nor Apple can compete at the new price points being plumbed by companies looking to cut costs."

What no flying cars?

[COMICAGOGO]

Well another year gone and no flying cars (at least none I can afford.) I was promised flying cars by this time, can't they at least get me a rocket pack:)

Ok, kidding aside. The statement about Linux gaining some ground is not totally out of line (although i don't think MS or Apple are quaking in their boots.) I have noticed a higher than normal percentage of people that hang out at our local library and browse the internet on a laptop all day using some variety of Linux. I have asked a few of them why they are using it and the main answer does seem to be that it is free and "surfs" the interwebs.

2007 Predictions

[sciop101]

What were the predictions for 2007?

How true were the predictions for 2007?

Give the prognosticators the chance to spin to seem brilliant and correct!

"slow to a crawl" ???!

[unity100]

For something like this to happen, there should be at least an indicator of things to come, as some people having trouble with http access in any parts of the world. noone is experiencing this. additionally the only problem users are experiencing is due to some isps taking on the duty of being the internet police upon themselves and HAMPERING users.

economist have put piece of crap articles before. but lately, the number and frequency of such crap have started to increase.

An article to think about

[dancingmad]

I am a huge fan of The Economist - for the daily gripes on slashdot, digg, and other websites about the pap that is journalism today, the paper has been a bastion of good writing and in depth coverage, even when I don't agree with the editorial/political stances. That said, I read this article earlier today (students are on winter break but I'm stuck coming into the office with nothing to do!) and it seemed like a mix of the obvious (more user created content? You don't say!) and the unlikely - when net speed starts becoming a customer service issue, you can bet the ISPs will get on board. American ISPs and those running the infrastructure have been dragging their feet in the U.S., while in Asia you can get really high speed internet (anywhere from DSL to fiber) even in the boondocks (believe me, I live in the middle of nowhere and could have gotten fiber).

The second prediction seems likely, though again, the U.S. is drawing up the rear. I know people here (Japan) that interact with the Internet solely or primarily through their mobile phone (not to mention things like GPS, and broadcast TV I got on a phone that cost less than $100 US). I hope Google does lead the way on this front next year, though I feel like we're going to have another year of baby steps unless Apple or Google or someone else with some clout decides to turn the American cell phone market on it's musty, stagnant head.

The third prediction seems very pie in the sky. I've used Windows, Linux, and OS X extensively, and I think (for my needs) OS X best matches my needs. I think there's a level of polish that is very difficult to for Linux to achieve in relation to the power home user. Ubuntu has probably got almost easy enough for the average user, if you disregard games and things. Linux certainly has a place as a great developer tool, server OS, and power-power user OS, but the article seems to imply that Linux is set to take over the entire PC world in 2008. I've heard that it's "the year of desktop Linux" since Redhat 5 and experience has taught me to wait for actual proof on that claim.

Can we get over the Linux desktop please?

[jaykali]

We have the perfect Unix based desktop already and it's called Mac OS. It's not free but it's better than any of the crap Linux ppl put out. Linux found it's place as great server software and that's where it will remain. The problem with Linux was also it's strength, the fact that ppl can make their own 'version' of linux distro. The problem is that the community is so fragmented that the uniting factor is going to be Microsoft going forward, not necessarily bc it's hands down the best but bc it's united. Linux ppl give up on ppl throwing away their Windows OS for Linux. The only thing that can really help Linux is the growing independence from OS apps and the web is becoming more the one app that we all use. That makes it possible to use the same apps no matter what OS, but again we have our OS ppl it's Mac! Get one! -J