IBM's Five Predictions for the Future 230
StonyandCher writes "IBM has released its second annual set of 'Next Five in Five' predictions. The company's crystal ball also revealed that the long-simmering trend toward "smart energy" devices will proliferate wildly. "Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid, making it possible to turn them on and off using your cell phone or any Web browser," a company statement asserts."
My first prediction (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:My first prediction (Score:5, Insightful)
Perhaps - if they become commonplace. There (for many years) have been controllable "appliances"... this is just an expansion of something that already existed. With stuff from SmartHome or X10, one could already control lights, AC, heat, security systems (with "back-links" to lights, and other stuff), locks and certain appliances via the web (and of course from home computers and dedicated/semi-dedicated consoles). Dishwashers (washing machines, dryers, etc) are something not yet on the "total control" aspect of such products... but I dont even see a need for that other than the "because I can" factor... why load a dishwasher and then wait to get to work/a friend's to go online to tell it to turn on (again, other than the "because I can" factor)?
The "Because I Can" factor is powerful (Score:5, Funny)
The dude intently staring at his laptop saying "Here boy, come here!!" draws a lot of attention in a cafe, but it was worth it.
Why bother looking like a freak just to confuse a poor dog? Because I can!
I'm hopeless.
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What is it with some (usually short or skinny) guys and macho dogs? Is it a compensation device for deficiancies elsewhere?
OT: Re:The "Because I Can" factor is powerful (Score:2)
Do you actually know the character of a bullmastiff? I know, and it is not what people think it is. A Bullmastiff is not a dangerous dog. It's working dog meant to track you down, and "sit" on you.
http://www.bullmastiffsonline.com/history.html [bullmastiffsonline.com]
"Gamekeepers then started their search for a dog that was strong, silent, fearless, agile and powerful enough to be able to run down and knock the poacher to the ground. They also required a breed that would not maul the poacher bu
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And there's more to it than that. I've seen more than one appliance meltdown in my day, and I've been glad I've been there to unplug them and take care of the problem. My gi
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How about noise? Maybe you want to run the dishwater when you're out of the house so that it doesn't bother you when you're trying to relax at home? That feature in itself would be worth it for some.
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You must be a blessed man. I tried this idea, and not only did she turn out not to be silent (far from it) but the on-going maintenance costs were way beyond what I thought the initial purchase price was going to be.
Even worse, the divorce and replacement costs would be enough to bankrupt me, so I'm stuck with this old model.
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My mom often loads up the dishwasher before she leaves for work. When she leaves, I am usually still in bed so she usually doesn't turn it on. The current solution is to leave a note on the fridge that says "turn on the dishwasher when you get up!" and it works pretty well, but obviously it would be more handy and reliable for her to be able to either start it remotely or, even better, set a timer that tells
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I can't think of any reason why I would not want to start my dishwasher immediately if it was full and ready to go, unless I was concerned that it would wake someone up.
even better, set a timer that tells it to start up at some specific time.
This is a solved problem [amazon.com]. My pa
Going way past the X10 Concept..... (Score:4, Insightful)
Right now, the power companies predict usage, with little control, with smart energy, they can tune usage much more efficiently.
Storm
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Spam (Score:4, Funny)
Nice house you've got there. Wouldn't it be sad if all the appliances suddenly went wild?
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Red hot toaster ovens, blenders with the tops off, microwave ovens holding themselves wide open? Sign me up.
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Powering off automatically (Score:5, Funny)
Mod Parent Up (Score:5, Insightful)
Smart would be if I set a monthly power budget and all my appliances figure out together how to best achieve their jobs within that budget.
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Designing a good dishwasher is pretty damn simple, and cellphones are definitely not involved.
1. It should have a button marked "WASH" - that causes the dishes to get washed. That's the whole point of the fucking machine.
2. For extra credit, it can have a button marked "WASH CHEAPLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS" - I can understand that, and might press it before going to work some days.
3. It should have a big hole in the top where I can pour several pounds of dishwashing detergent. When it starts runnin
iDishwasher is about right. (Score:2)
Push the dial to lock it in (or start).
I have a (Sony) vcr with a neat dial-based quick timer setting mechanism. You just twiddle the knob to set the start time and then push it in, twiddle it to set the end time and push it in, twiddle it to set the channel and push it in.
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If truth be known, I probably wouldn't even buy an iDishwasher. My current dishwasher setup is hi-tech enough that I need only place the used plate, etc, in a visible location, and the kitchen system whisks it away, cleans it, and returns it to the correct cupboard. My hi-tech stove is a similar marvel: it often detects that I am hungry, and asks me what I want to eat (my wife has to translate because it lacks
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Yeah, where is WASH? (Score:2)
The front of that thing looks like a Christmas tree! Hot Wash. Regular Wash. Pots and Pans Wash. High Temp Wash. Air Dry. Heat Dry.
You are very correct - there should be one damn button - WASH.
I don't mind so much having to add detergent with every load (I just spent 5 minutes filling it up with dishes, after all), but the interface is complicated.
Re:Powering off automatically (Score:5, Informative)
This is not about controlling your dishwasher through a web browser. That's fucking stupid and everyone in the industry knows it's stupid. Unfortunately, things are dumbed down for the consumer to understand.
This is about automated energy management. Devices need to talk to each other and with the grid in order to be "smart". This allows energy suppliers and users to be able to manage / balance energy usage. But it's more than just energy usage - it's about devices that cooperate with each other. Your occupancy sensor works with the lighting and heating systems to keep people comfortable. They work with ambient light sensors and window blinds to keep the sun out when it is at a bad angle, or let let it in and power off / dim the overhead lights... You can come up with thousands of examples here...
Echelon in San Jose has been developing this technology for many years, as have others. It's secure and reliable. Hell - remote energy management has been desirable / SOP for at LEAST 15 years, where chain stores remote control heating / lighting from corporate headquarters. It's just that power-line network technology has gotten good and inexpensive enough to move into much smaller devices. No, this isn't X-10 crap, it uses 128 bit device ID's and is a full network protocol. I tossed all my X10 crap years ago as it was WAY too unreliable and devices were poor quality. Unfortunately, the good stuff hasn't really made it down to the consumer level yet.
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And that's a field where the benefits to the average consumer are obvious and immediate. Getting appliances to talk to each other is a pipe dream.
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I work in the HVAC/Building Automation/Energy Management field and can tell you that the application of the future is Automated demand response.
One of our customers is now signed up on a program with SCE. On set days during the summer months when energy demand is expected to go higher than normal, we receive a signal over the Internet to a box with an integrated relay. Upon receiving this signal our web-based EMS system initiates a sequence for demand response by shutting off li
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I have this dishwasher, and it turns off after the cycle is complete. It's AMAZING, and I don't even need to turn it off using a webbrowser. Sometimes, I can even set it to 'Air Dry' after the wash cycle.... without a cell phone. Incredible.
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Although "powering down" an appliance doesn't have much utility on the face of it, it could be useful to be able to shut something down or turn it on from your browser when you're away. The common dumb example is to turn heating o
Re:Powering off automatically (Score:4, Informative)
There are also electric models that sit between the washer and the outlet. When it senses a current draw from the washer, it opens the solenoids to allow the water to flow. If the washer is off, the solenoids snap shut. This is safer but of course much more expensive.
Appliance with N.A.G. Option (Score:4, Funny)
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The actual article... (Score:5, Informative)
IBM Reveals Five Innovations that Will Change Our Lives Over the Next Five Years
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/22683.wss [ibm.com]
Infrastructure, anyone? (Score:2, Insightful)
Who's going to provide this functionality, for that matter? Will we end up with a dozen mutually incompatible systems, and what happens when we want to upgrade what's already been half installed?
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... or rewire their house (let alone a city grid) for that kind of functionality?
Southern California Edison is already doing this with SmartConnect [sce.com]. They plan on replacing 5 million electric meters between 2009 and 2012.
SCE's new meters will also be able to "talk" through home area networks, providing customers with near real-time energy use and cost information to enable energy conservation. The Edison SmartConnect system has the ability to provide the information from the meter into the home through a two-way wireless interface allowing customers to immediately see how their actions affect usage. The result is expected to increase sustained energy conservation that will reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and smog-forming pollutants by a minimum of 365,000 metric tons per year -- the equivalent of removing 66,000 cars from the road.
Re:Infrastructure, anyone? (Score:4, Funny)
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Well let me see, I wonder if IBM would publish a report (advertise) research only being worked on by their rivals?
Every component smart, but one (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Every component smart, but one (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Every component smart, but one (Score:4, Insightful)
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Humans haven't "function[ed] as an independent species" since cavemen first chipped tools out of flint. Technology is what makes us human beings rather than just rather weak, slow, hairless apes.
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We're getting so sheltered and pussywhipped that we won't be able to function as an independent species within a few decades.
I'd be the first to admit that in a primitive hunter-gatherer society, my skillset would be essentially worthless and I'd probably die a quick death from inexperience. That said, there's a huge difference between what you're taught and what your innate abilities are. Place any newborn child with a primitive tribe in the Amazon, and I doubt he'll do much differently than the natives. If we really needed to, there'd be no problem reverting to a more primitive society. While we wait for the apocalypse, I'll c
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Five years or decades? (Score:5, Insightful)
Yeah the theoretical technology might exist, but major improvements to the national infrastructure will take decades to implement.
"Dishwashers, air conditioners, house lights, and more will be connected directly to a 'smart' electric grid,
Again this require a major improvement to parts of the infrastructure. On top of that, my parents already own all the appliances they want, they will not likely get many new ones anytime in the next five years. Maybe an HDTV.
For example, phones will enable users to snap a photo of an article of clothing, pull in results from the Web about the brand and where to buy it, and then render the garment on top of a 3-D image of the user, IBM said.
Many stores I have been in do not let you photograph the merchandise, if you can suddenly comparison shop the goods in any given store I can only see that policy getting stronger.
This article sounds more like "The World of Tomorrow" than something I would expect out of a respected technology company.
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Infrastructure aside, we do need smarter clients; more gps-aware cellphones (so I can be warned before taking a route where all the cars are moving slowly), and other connected appliances (so my AC will shut off when I'm over 2 miles away from home, or I can punch a button telling my car I want the seats to be nice and warm in 5 minutes). It's more a problem of company
Re:Five years or decades? (Score:4, Funny)
I don't think it'll ever happen, for two possible reasons:
1) Traffic engineers are utterly incompetent, as a rule. (Any traffic engineers reading this? This means YOU! You suck!) I've never seen well-timed lights, in any American city I've lived in or visited, on either side of the continent. It's not that the technology doesn't exist; it does: sensor-based lights are all over the place, which can sense the amount of traffic. But do they put this to good use? Of course not. There actually used to be a time, before "smart lights", when traffic lights were timed in relation to each other, so drivers on a main thoroughfare could travel along at the speed limit, theoretically, and rarely have to stop for cross traffic. Then, they came along and put in "smart lights" so that we'd supposedly never stop for nonexistent cross-traffic, but instead, every time a single car pulls up, it throws off all the traffic on the main road. Again, complete incompetence on the part of the traffic engineers. They should have stuck with a system where the lights were timed in relation to each other, but the presence or absence of traffic on cross-streets merely modified this behavior to be more efficient, by adding or subtracting cycles for the cross-traffic. How hard is that? They've had decades to figure this out, and they haven't.
2) Traffic engineers might not be that bad, but they're implementing stupid rules required by local governments whose real interest is not traffic safety and efficiency, but rather revenue from traffic tickets. This is probably getting much worse due to modern "red-light cameras", which give tickets to drivers running red lights. Many people have noted that many lights, when they had these revenue generators installed, suddenly got MUCH shorter yellow lights, obviously in order to increase revenue. Of course, the traffic engineers are still to blame if they implement this; "I was just following orders" ceased to be an acceptable excuse at the Nuremburg Trials, after all, and since many people die at intersections each year, these engineers aren't just to blame for a lack of efficiency, but actual deaths, which in my view makes them eligible for the death penalty.
Re:Five years or decades? (Score:4, Funny)
Oh really. Tell me, what do you know about traffic?
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I haven't, either. One supposed application is a refrigerator that keeps track of your foods, and lets you know when, for example, you're low on milk or eggs. I'm not sure how this is possible, however, without rather advanced sensor systems which would be quite costly. It's not as simple as using RFID; this would work if you had a freezer
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Suppose you had a smart fridge that could read data from the power socket about the availability of power. A signal arrives that indicates a glut of power (it's got windy and the wind farms output has shot up). The spot price of electricity falls and your fridge switches on the compressor and cools the inside to 1C down from it's normal 4-5C. The temperature gets as low as 2C inside the fridge when a new signal arrives - there's a power shortage,
How many computers? (Score:4, Funny)
Flying cars too! (Score:4, Interesting)
1. We'll be able to track produce, and every detail of it of where it's been, etc. - This would require a database and some ID tag (likely RFID) or an Read/Write tag and no database. Currently these are too expensive to have seen widespread use in larger goods, and despite predictions that they're just around the corner, they've been unable to lower the price past a certain point. RFID will happen, but it won't happen this fast.
2. Smart Networks - This requires a significant investment in infrastructure, and it would seem, smart cars. This is something that may start within 5 years, but only cars made past a certain date will actually be 'smart', and until a certain percentage is 'smart' there's not much use for the system (possibly reducing the motivation for investment in the non-car infrastructure, though GPS/Onstar type services may provide enough incentive. Still it won't be here in 5 years.
3. Cell phones - Stupid example. I don't need to know what clothing will look like on me in 3d, and this seems like an application that would be horrible on cell phones, even with advances in computer technology. It MIGHT happen in Asian countries, as they tend to have more advanced cell phones and seem to enjoy odd tech things that don't catch on well in the US (vending machines, etc)
4. Smart Devices are over-rated. Until you can easily access your computer from your cell phone, this won't be down the road 5 years. Yes I'm sure you can do it, but it's not common, certainly not on non-smart phones.
5. Doctors - It'll happen, medicine will advance, but i don't think we'll see any amazing changes. Admittedly I know little about this field, but I haven't heard anything huge inventions lately that will revolutionize the field.
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Even the act of eating will take on new meaning, in IBM's view: "You will know everything from the climate and soil the food was grown in, to the pesticides and pollution it was exposed to, to the energy consumed to create the product, to the temperature and air quality of the shipping containers it traveled through on the way to your dinner table."
Ummmm, it says here that it was grown in soil high in magnesium sulfate, used 5kwh to grow and get here, was stored at 45F, and was in shipping container X458GDFR. That's great. Assuming the data isn't bogus, what the hell do I do with that? Now I've lost my appetite.
Computers will also be able to compare your health data to an ocean's worth of other patient records, helping with diagnosis and treatment, the company said.
You appear to have a 95% match to pancreatic cancer and a 0% match to any cure.
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Also as the article talked about being able to turn on or shut off appliances over the internet. I want some semblance of intelligence so that the AC can set itself to different temperatures depending on the outside temp, the day
Last Year's Five in Five (Score:4, Informative)
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/five_in_five/010807/index.shtml [ibm.com]
Sensational yet Possible (Score:2)
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For some reason I see this leading to a series of very confusing diplomatic incidents.
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-- i get get-a-bigger-penis pill commercials every day, everywhere, from everywhere, and this is healthcare, kind of
-- i call over skype with my girlfriend, and i don't understand anything, something gets lost in the translation
oh please... (Score:5, Insightful)
somebody please give me an example of why I should ever want to control my dishwasher from my phone or my web browser.
the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly. possibly the only interaction I would want is a little minimalist chime to alert me that the cycle or current operation has finished and some human interaction is needed.
*everything* else should work behind the scenes to my benefit to save power or alert me when the washing powder is running low.
interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...
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most of my other kitchen appliances have a light that illuminates the interior when the door is open and i'd like one for my dishwasher too, kthxbai.
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I would love to be able to do that! Of course I'm assuming I will also be able to collect my dirty dishes off the living room floor, drag them to the kitchen, and load the said dishwasher, all from my browser.
Otherwise, it seems kinda useless...
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MMmmm well I have a suggestion. If the devices in my house were to measure their power usage, then connect via wi-fi to the net, I could use my browser to figure out which appliance(s) is/are costing me the most per month.
That may not entice you much, but I've had roommates that didn't think they were the cause of the expensive utilities.
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the only intelligence I want in my gadgets it on the lines of smart machines that can detect the load and vary the power consumption and resource usage accordingly
fisher and paykel have been making washing machines like that for decades.
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interaction by web browser? what utter rot. I would say "whatever next, a fridge with a built in web browser?" but I remember talk of such stuff a few years ago...
Unfortunately, that dark day is basically here. [lge.com] We can be a pretty absurd species, that's for sure. What we really need are Bluetooth enabled underwear, then they could let our cellphones know when we sh*t ourselves. Or maybe scissors with routers, that would also be nice.
Energy will be the next issue (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't think there will be that much interest in smart appliances like they describe. I think this is a technological path to consider, but it will be over ruled by the fact that we, as a planet, are running out of per capita energy.
We may be able to create a lot of energy, but the per capita demand worldwide is growing such that Americans (who consume more energy per capita) will experience a severe energy shortage and as such, the focus will not be on more appliances that are smart and therefore have a passive load on the household grid, but focus on appliances that actually stop using all electricity when you turn them off. Many don't these days because of the hot start design features.
For the rest of this decade the US will experience energy shortages in terms of higher gasoline prices, higher heating gas prices, and higher electricity prices (and summer shortages). This will force us to reconsider a lot of the appliances that we already have and re-prioritize what we want in future appliances.
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Reminds me of Thomas Watson's prediction... (Score:2, Funny)
Thomas Watson probably never made that prediction (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Thomas Watson probably never made that predicti (Score:2)
http://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/moving-image/robert_noyce.102630513.wmv [computerhistory.org]
I find that equally unlikely. On the other hand, if Watson did say that in 1943 then he was right for about a decade which is pretty good as computer market predictions go.
RFC 3251 (Score:3, Funny)
Anybody wanting to develop a smart electricity grid should take a look at that document, includes lots of information about hazardous voltage drops and other pitfalls that can be avoided.
Spanking New Technology (Score:4, Funny)
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Ok, actually you do.
WHY?? (Score:4, Insightful)
If I am out...why in the hell do I want to take time to manage all my household appliances? I am 'out' for a reason. Presumably to have fun. Other than that, I am at home or work.
Heat and A/C? Nope, sorry. Either maintain a constant temp, or follow the damn program I already gave you.
Dishwasher? Oh please. If it's full enough, I'll start it now. Empty it whenever. Or maybe I'll start it just before I go to bed.
House lights? Again...follow the (individual) timers, or just stay off. Simple, cheap, pretty foolproof.
What possibly would I need to change settings on if I am 'out'. About the only thing I can think of that I might want to alter is the TiVo settings. Which I can do already. And that is (for me) a non issue. In two(three?) years, I haven't found a need to do it once.
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Coming back from holiday is the main use case I can see, where you want to set the heating low while you are away, or turn off aircon in summer, then turn it up just before you come back. The other use case would be for people with irregular hours, for whom timers don't offer the flexibility they need.
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But the end to end infrastructure needed to allow me to reprogram my climate control via web or phone, for a maybe once a year instance, is way beyond what I want to do. Or pay for.
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Whenever these tech companies look into the crystal ball they see stuff that never ceases to amaze me.
And this is from the same company which said the world needs probably 5 computers.
I want dumb energy devices. (Score:2, Interesting)
No, this is good... (Score:3, Interesting)
Riiight (Score:4, Insightful)
Will producers make such information available? It shouldn't take a genius to answer this question.
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>> grown in, to the pesticides and pollution it was exposed to, to
>> the energy consumed to create the product, to the temperature
>> and air quality of the shipping containers it traveled through
>> on the way to your dinner table."
>
> Will such information increase sales or revenue to producers ?
Yes it will ! Differenciation is what make a product stand out
from the lot. This has already begun to happen in a
Oh my dear IBM (Score:2)
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Yeah, right - and where's my flying car? (Score:3, Insightful)
he company said that during the next five years, a "wave of connectivity" between vehicles and roadways will help keep traffic flowing smoothly, drive down pollution and get you to your destination easier, "without the stress."
This will be accomplished through "intelligent" traffic systems that automatically adjust light patterns and shift traffic to alternative routes, as well as cars that exhibit "reflexes" thanks to communication with other vehicles and roadside sensors, according to IBM.
Utter and catastrophic bullshit. Those features MIGHT be available in 5 years, but the stupid bint up the street who just bought tha gas guzzling Caddilac SUV is NOT going to be getting one in five years. She will likely still be driving the gas guzzling POS Caddy. And I will DEFINITELY still be driving my Prius. And my brother is going tobe buying a new car next year, and it will likely be a used Ford. He ALWAYS buys used Fords.
Essentially, for that technology to have ANY penetration in 5 years, it needs to have been made available last year or the year before. It takes an average of 10 years to replace 75% of the car fleet. This does NOT bode well given the petroleum situation....
RS
I predict fires will increase (Score:2)
would fit my lifestyle. (Score:2)
But I live in Japan and that means a few things; I rely heavily on my cellphone to get things done. Internet, mail, news, weather, etc. Moreover, my apartment, like most Japanese housing, doesn't have central heat. Instead I rely on a (admittedly reasonably hig
The future of the past (Score:3, Insightful)
I predict they will remain in the prediction lists for the next 20 years.
For the love of god! (Score:2)
We'd do better to have smart electrical sockets (Score:3, Informative)
WTF is this? (Score:2)
I want my goddamn flying car!!!!!
one species+significant (Score:2)
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Technology should be simplifying our lives. Dishwashers have gotten better in recent years, but they still have a ways to go. My current dishwasher has an array of controls on the front panel, for different washing options ("regular, "tough scrub", sanitize, etc.). Ideally, all or most of these extra controls should be eliminated, and replaced with "Start" and "Stop" buttons. I shoul