Gartner Analysts Warn That Windows Is Collapsing 868
spacefiddle writes "Computerworld has an article about a presentation from Gartner analysts in Las Vegas claiming that Windows is 'collapsing', and that Microsoft 'must make radical changes to the operating system or risk becoming a has-been.' Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald provided an analysis of what went wrong with Vista, and what they feel Microsoft can and must do to correct its problems. Larry Dignan of ZDNet has his own take, and while he agrees, he suggests that the downfall of Windows will be slow and drawn-out. As an interesting tangent to this, there's also a story from a few days prior about Ubuntu replacing Windows for a school's library kiosks, getting good performance out of older hardware. '[Network administrator Daniel] Stefyn said he was "pleasantly surprised" to discover that the Kubuntu desktops ran some applications faster with Linux than when they ran on Windows. An additional benefit of Windows' departure from student library terminals saw the students cease 'hacking the setup to install and play games or trash the operating system.'"
Re:Gartner analysts? (Score:3, Informative)
After all these years saying Gartner "analysts" doesn't know their as from their elbow, I am *so* conflicted ...
There never was a Windows OS! (Score:5, Informative)
Microsoft implemented the Windowing API on top of that operating system.
The fact is that Microsoft has never developed a commercial operating system from scratch!!!
They have only incremented the original Windows NT (a.k.a. OS/2 v3.0) code base, for example by:
- replacing the OS/2 file system delivered in Windows NT with the more modern NTFS
- re-writing the OS/2 deveice driver layer of Windows NT with a new, 32-bit and C-based API [the original NT device driver model was 16-bit and assembler-based]
- moving the implementation of the graphics API into the ring-0 kernel [big mistake!]
- replacing the OS/2 multitaskin DOS compatibility (i.e. the text window of Windows) with a less DOS-compatible one, which was supposed to run on multiple processor architectures.
The effort to create a new operating system core for Vista failed because of lack of in-house knowlege.
The task of writing a new core OS (under the Windows API) seems to be too difficult for a company run by marketing people and lawyers.
Re:Really? (Score:3, Informative)
You could always trim your own XP/Vista down with http://www.vlite.net/about.html [vlite.net] vLite (okay, got bored of trying to get the link formatted in the new inline editor.)
what are you talking about? (Score:4, Informative)
Presumably the first two options are disallowed by policy and machine setup. The latter is a hazard of running computers. That's not security through obscurity, that's security through proper setup and patching the OS to make sure exploits are eliminated as they're discovered.
Re:Why Kubuntu? (Score:3, Informative)
I guess Xubuntu and Fluxbuntu should develop a similar Kiosk admin tool.
Microsoft forgot their customer (Score:3, Informative)
They seemed to get it in their head their customers were the people asking for DRM throughout the OS.
They seemed to believe the end users (the ones who have to pay for, and use their product) don't matter. They thought people just wanted some fancy need interface tweaks, and they'll accept whatever is forced on them.
It turned out they were wrong.
Microsoft need to strip it down, make the next version wicked fast, make it open to people who want to use their platform and media the way they want, and encourage developers. Backward compatibility? Only to the extent of running the top 500 well-behaved applications.
Give the next version away. Use the slogan "We're showing Windows the door".
Re:And the IMF says we're in recession ... (Score:1, Informative)
I don't know how you got "the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s" out of that.
Slightly more on-topic. Vista is kinda crummy, but so was 95, 98, and Me. Everyone complained about 2000 and XP when they came out too. Microsoft didn't collapse. You're not going to see Mac and Linux corporate desktops in any great numbers any time soon.
Re:Hacking the setup (Score:5, Informative)
2) Many apps don't run well or at all on a properly secured Windows. Ubuntu's Unix like base means apps are designed to expect a rights restricted environment so it's much less painful.
#2 Is actually Vista's largest problem. Vista is trying to force good application software design that runs against years of experience in the Windows world and it's going to take a long time for app makers to adjust to the new reality.
Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)
There could have been some problems with ARM-incompatible stuff, but those problems did not prevent the product launch.
As for developing, doing it for the iPhone OS is very close to developing for MacOS. Not everything is present, but it is a lot easier than to transition from desktop Windows to Windows CE.
I wouldn't be surprised if Apple did shrink it even further for smaller devices. The iPhone/iPod Touch have proven it can be done and getting rid of OpenGL ES, CoreAnimation and Cocoa Touch would end up in a very, very small OS.
Yes. Microsoft painted itself into a corner. They will, eventually, figure a way to get out, but I am not sure they will do it in time.
Re:And the IMF says we're in recession ... (Score:3, Informative)
However, if you read on, you realize this is just a bit of journalistic bluster since the WEO is predicting the US economy to grow this year (just grow slowly). Growing slowly isn't a recession at all - I believe the most commonly accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive shrinking quarters. We technically haven't even had one quarter like that yet.
Admittedly, we could still have a recession and grow this year (if the economy came back strong enough in the last quarter), but this wouldn't be the steepest recession since the GD. In fact, it might not even be the steepest of this decade.
I'm not saying things aren't looking gloomy right now (my portfolio sure does), but I doubt it's quite as bad as some sensationalist would have you believe.
Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)
No.
Not without using a tool such as vLite to essentially strip Vista down to bare bones. And even then it runs like a dog. 8 year old hardware would be hardware from 2000. We are talking MAYBE a 1Ghz processor, (more likely 800Mgz) and probably either 128 or 256 Mb of RAM. That setup runs XP slowly. Vista, with all the extra overhead the larger kernel is running BARELY FUNCTIONS on a machine such as that.
How do I know? I'VE TRIED IT. Used an old 1Ghz Pentium laptop with 256 MB of RAM, and a vLite'd version of Vista Business with basically NOTHING left in it. Stripped down to basic functionality. It booted, but only JUST. It took no less than 15 minutes to get to the logon screen, and another 5 minutes after that to get to the desktop. Using it was like running an RDP session over a phone line with a large download going at the same time. Slloooooooooooow.
Now, with some extra RAM, that might have been sped up a bit. But in no way would it ever be able to run Vista in a manner that anyone would consider usable. Vista is too big, too bloated, and too damn slow for older hardware. Thankfully, it is on older hardware that Linux really shines. And with fantastic distros like Ubuntu and it's derivatives, there isn't any more reason to fight with Windows if you don't have the cash to upgrade your hardware.
Re:Windows vs Ubuntu (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)
iPhone runs on a down-clocked 112mghz processor. (before the 1.1.2 firmware, it ran at 100mghz). Yes, the processor is capable of 620mghz but the battery would last something like 1 hour so it's been down-clocked.
Plus the iPhone doesn't have to carry the bazillion drivers that the regular Mac OS X carries, nor the bazillion software in embarks. It is, otherwise, the same Mach kernel.
Re:Here we go again, eh? (Score:5, Informative)
Check your numbers. Windows 1.0 may have come out in 1985, but it was pretty much a joke, a slightly prettier version of DOSSHELL.EXE. Windows 2.x was hardly any better.
It wasn't until 1992, with version 3.1, that the Windows monoculture really began to take hold, and not until Win95 that 'domination' could be rightly claimed.
Re:At home perhaps (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Really? (Score:2, Informative)
Not quite. Vista was designed to run on high end machines, however Vista was marketed to be able to run on not-so high end machines.
A Ghz-class machine with 1+GB of RAM hasn't been "high end" for 5+ years.
"Low end" today is a dual core machine with 2G RAM - and it'll run Vista fine.
Re:Why I'm still with Windows (Score:2, Informative)
Same with the wireless - I'm unfortunate enough to have a Broadcom card, and the native driver requires firmware. So I have that under ~ too
Plus perhaps I'm lucky, but Linux mostly Just Works where my hardware is concerned - with the exception of the wireless, all the stuff in my workstation is supported in a standard Debian install.
Windows was another question. God what a nightmare. I had to pull the second nVidia card from the box otherwise I'd get a bluescreen on boot from XP. After pulling the card, I managed to install, only to discover that it was trying to authenticate against a nonexistent domain, so logging in was impossible. In the end, I installed Win2k, installed the nVidia drivers, then upgraded to XP. Then installed the sound card drivers and the wireless drivers. At least now it's working, I suppose. At least until I have to reinstall it. At which point the pain begins again.
Re:Really? (Score:3, Informative)
But the point that the analyst made that Apple benefits from having a very close codebase between the iPhone and the desktop, I think, is very valid. Microsoft not only has a completely different OS for their phones, but my understanding is that even the XBox 360 is based on a fork of NT that hasn't resynced in the better part of a decade. (While the AppleTV is, again, more or less vanilla MacOS X pared down.)
I don't know if that supports the analyst's point that Windows is "collapsing". If there were any serious alternative for businesses he might have a point. But there are no drop-in replacements for Windows in the enterprise and few are willing to risk the investment to do what it takes to integrate linux or MacOS X into critical workflows.
Re:Here we go again, eh? (Score:3, Informative)
I'll buy into multi-screen setups when there is an OS/driver combination that actually supports them without random issues.
Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)
You've been here long enough to know (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Hacking the setup (Score:3, Informative)
Re:There never was a Windows OS! (Score:2, Informative)
They mostly started from scratch, except for the parts that were alleged to be "translated" and became a source of a lawsuit most people never heard of. They didn't buy NT, they bought people.
The funny part is that Dave used to call PC's "Fucking toy computers".
Re:There never was a Windows OS! (Score:2, Informative)
Regardless: I may be incorrect, but
However, these are tiny details of the bigger picture. The main feature set: Threads, pre-emptive multitasking, priority-based scheduling, support for SMP, layered architecture, pluggable file systems, application level insulation (i.e. one application can't take everything down), paged memory management (page swapping instead of segment swapping) all originate from the original OS/2 v3.0 specification*).
NB! This is different from the actual commercial product "OS/2 version 3.0" , which is derived from the OS/2 2.x code base! Confusing, I know!
The history behind this is as follows: IBM and Microsoft co-developed OS/2 1.x [16-bit operating system]. When it became time to migrate to 32-bit Microsoft claimed that it was difficult for them to travel between Seattle and Bocca Raton, Florida, where IBM labs resided. They convinced IBM to take upon themselves the implementation of the first, Intel-only, 32-bit version [which became OS/2 2.0 and base for later versions of OS/2], and to leave Microsoft to work on the next-gen portable OS/2 [which was to be some future 3.x version of OS/2]. However, Microsoft soon abandoned OS/2 and used the know-how and specifications for developing Windows NT.
You may be too young to remember, and possibly mis-informed. (The winner gets to write the history, as you may recall!).
I, however, worked intensely with Microsoft on OS/2 (as an independent, not as an employee) and I was one of the few external Windows NT Alpha testers. At that point I saw what direction Microsoft had taken, and discontinued my cooperation with the company. I do have all the printed material and data media in a safe place, should documenting the history ever become nescesary.
---------------
*) In addition to the specification itself Microsoft had access to IBMs reference implementations in source code format both as IBM's 32-bit OS/2 and in "OS/2 for PowerPC" (a product that never made it to the market).
Re:Windows Me doomsayers were right. (Score:3, Informative)
MS Stock Price after release of ME - 25.59. Today's Stock Price for MS - 29.11. During the time between their stock has traded as high as 36.55.
As for their cash reserves, I'm curious what inside information you have, the last I heard arrangements have not been agreed upon, and a cash vs stock deal hasn't been determined. As of December 07, they still have 21 billion in cash reserves. Even if they blew their wad on Yahoo, they generated 17.6 billion dollars of cash last year, and could easily replenish those reserves by scaling back acquisitions and dividend payouts.
Your fiscal witchcraft is a fail, and since the entirity of your comment is built around a fact that you pulled out of some random orifice, your entire comment gets an F. No gold star for you.
Re:Really? (Score:5, Informative)
Not [auckland.ac.nz] at [windowsvistablog.com] all [theinquirer.net]. You are assuming that the design of Windows makes sense, or that it is designed with the end user in mind. Stop making that mistake.
For one thing, the DRM code is still there in many (loaded) DLL's, thus using memory (even if it may not be actively in use in the absence of DRM-encumbered media). The increased costs for hardware and driver development to make all this stuff even work, are paid for by you, the end user. Decreased driver stability due to the entirely new driver model (necessary to support DRM)? Guess who can deal with the problems it causes...yup...that would be you. Laptop battery draining faster because drivers are checking all the time whether protected media is present and whether the system is uncompromised [auckland.ac.nz] (also happening while no DRM'ed media is actually present)?
I guess you can spot the trend by now.
Re:Hacking the setup (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Here we go again, eh? (Score:5, Informative)
Photoshop CS1, CS2 both work in Wine. CS3 is installable.
^_^ Google is paying Wine to works specifically on Photoshop, so yeah!
Yes, your $25 Generic webcam will work on Linux thanks to that one guy who added all those drivers in one go ( http://linux.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/04/30/209201 [slashdot.org] )
Desktop Media creation is kind of vague, but you can edit audio, make movies, etc. It is also REALLY easy to turn almost all video into a format that plays in dvd players (Try devede, it works great)
Yes you can connect your 360 to linux, and you can use the controler in linux, and you can stream to the PS3 in linux, and you can use the ps3 controller in linux, and you can use the wii controller in linux.
Google is a better resource than Comcast. Comcast can't trouble shoot WINDOWS much less linux. 'Restart' does not count as troubleshooting.
Crysis can be played on Linux at the bronze level, which is better than it can run on my computer anywho: http://appdb.winehq.org/objectManager.php?sClass=application&iId=5880 [winehq.org] , but this seems like an unfair requirement.
Sims City 4 runs like a champ: http://appdb.winehq.org/objectManager.php?sClass=application&iId=4088 [winehq.org] But Sims in general is a huge category of games...
Let me ask you a question.
Can you run Windows for a year without restarting, slowing down, or crashing? How about 3 months?
Can you install 50 programs while uninstalling 32, while also installing/uninstalling all dependencies at the same time?
Can you (^_^ With pulse audio) plug in as many sound cards as you want, have them auto detected and added, and stream your audio to all computers in the house with indivdual volume controls for each item using it (Browser plugins, vlc, etc)
Can you quickly and easily change your wallpaper, window edges, icons, mouse, and all animations with little effort, in such a way that all applications reflect those changes?
Can you backup all your settings by copying one folder?
Can you share it legally with your friends/family?
Come back with "Yes" and I will reconsider Windows. And if you keep using windows, try out PowerMenu ( http://www.majorgeeks.com/PowerMenu_d87.html [majorgeeks.com] ), which allows window's to minimize to try, keep always on top, and other stuff.
Re:Not actually *no* configuration (Score:3, Informative)
Sort of. In Ubuntu, the first user you add (and any other users you add, I believe) at installation will have sudo. After the initial installation and boot, however, new users do not have sudo by default -- the option has to be checked in the Add User dialog. At least that's how I remember it.
On other distros, e.g. Fedora, no users have sudo until you explicitly add them to the sudoers list.
Re:You've been here long enough to know (Score:2, Informative)
It's true. I'm an asshole, and I get modded up all the time.
Re:Windows vs Ubuntu (Score:3, Informative)
Otherwise, there are very few makes of onboard 802.11x currently in circulation that don't have at least one open-source driver available. See http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Jean_Tourrilhes/Linux/ [hp.com] for a list of supported makes and models. I think you might be pleasantly surprised.
A final note: there's no need to be unpleasant to those who disagree with you. For the record, I'm an OS agnostic, as I have one of each major OS represented in my home, and I can't say that I've suffered any massive problems, wireless or otherwise, with any of them. I and the other posters you've replied to were simply pointing out exceptions to your blanket statement that no wireless cards work under Linux. I don't think I or anyone else ever claimed that anyone who has or has had difficulties with wireless under Linux must be lying. Moreover, the cards that tend to give trouble under Linux also tend to give similar trouble under Windows and other operating systems - the problems lie with poorly written drivers, not Vista, Linux or any other OS.
Thank you for your consideration.
Re:Really? (Score:2, Informative)
As far as Microsoft complaining about how hard software is to write, well
For those of you old enough to remember when SUN, HP and IBM made their own Hardware AND Operating system will recall how reliable those devices were. They reduced the number of variables by controlling both the hardware and software. Now they were a lot more expensive and those companies could really be a-holes about some things but those boxes kicked ass.
Re:Really? (Score:2, Informative)
CoreAnimation is a well-known example: it was developed and announced first for Leopard, but its first production use was in the UI for the iPhone. MacOS X and OSX share a common base of source code. Yes, the latter is trimmed-down, but it's not a completely separate beast as in the case of WinCE.
Re:Really? (Score:4, Informative)
This is probably true for the server market, but not so much for the desktop/laptop market. At my last job Lenovo and Apple were our two pre-approved vendors for laptops and desktops. It's not like we wait to purchase a new laptop until we know a system with some given specs is coming out. We just bought whatever they had on the market at the time we needed a new machine. Hire a new employee... put in an order for a machine for them. Your system reaches a certain age... you get an upgrade to whatever they have out at that time. I mean who pre-plans desktop and laptop purchases based upon roadmaps that may or may not be accurate? The only time this matters if there is a major architecture change, and in such a case businesses usually wait for the software and third party hardware industry to stabilize on the new platform for a year or two.
Also, an amusing addendum, going to Apple.com right now will show you a giant graphic with a huge font that reads "iPhone Software Roadmap".
I disagree. Apple works to support a subset of hardware they will sell and then tries to convince third party hardware makers to write drivers and support OS X. Microsoft, on the other hand, can release whatever the hell they want and OEMs and hardware manufacturers will do whatever it takes, including changing hardware design, to make it work with Windows. What choice do they have? They will make it work no matter how hard it is or they won't sell anything because it doesn't work with the only OS people use.
There is plenty wrong with Vista, but I agree that those problems are sometimes overblown by users and the media. Vista has problems, but so does everything else. In another year it will be as stable as XP for normal uses.
These aren't even aimed at the same market, and as someone who uses both, Keynote blows away Powerpoint, Pages wins for users looking to do some home publishing (not just word processing) especially on price, and Numbers is fine for home spreadsheet uses. None of them are ideal for corporate use, which is MS Office's primary target market.
Wow, I'm not even going near that turd.
Apple is behind in the server space, although your enthusiasm for all things Microsoft is, well nuts. Linux still crushes Windows as a server, especially if you remove all the antitrust abuses that artificially broken compatibility with Windows desktops. As for some small business use, OS X server is nearly free in comparison to Windows server, if you're trying to support 100 people or so. OS X runs you $1000 while Windows Server 2008 costs $16,000. The OS X version has unlimited users while you'll still have to pay MS another $3000 for each additional 20 users. So at 1/16th the price for a small business, I'm willing to forgive a lot in OS X server. Is Windows server 16 times as awesome as OS X server?
Re:Really? (Score:3, Informative)
It does all the extra stuff like sound, input, timers and threads.
Guess what? A RPM of it is 208K. (I dont have it installed atm)
A thousandth of the size of DirectX.
You can throw everything in from Alsa to the video card drivers and you wont get near 200mb.
A full install of KDE 4 (minus sounds and images) is half the size of DirectX.
The amount of bloat is astonishing.
And remember that the OP wanted to put DirectX on a embedded system.
See why I'm laughing my ass off?