IP Traffic To 'Double' Every Two Years

Stony Stevenson writes "Web traffic volumes will almost double every two years from 2007 to 2012, driven by video and web 2.0 applications, according to a report from Cisco Systems. Cisco's Visual Networking Index (PDF) predicts that visual networking will account for 90 percent of the traffic coursing through the world's IP networks by 2012. The upward trend is not only driven by consumer demand for YouTube clips and IPTV, according to the report, as business use of video conferencing will grow at 35 percent CAGR over the same period." I left the apostrophes around the word "double" in the title because the linked site has them, but for the life of me I can't figure out why.

So buy buy buy more Cisco Router!!!

[o1d5ch001]

No news here... yes, Internet traffic doubles over a relatively short period of time..

The biggest challenge going forward is how we are possibly going to power all of this traffic. Electrical power costs are going to be raising 10-20% a year for the next little while. What we need to engineer is using the bandwidth more efficiently.

I never thought I would say this, but Television still beats the Internet for delivering video content. As for video conferencing, it is cheaper to video conference than to fly, but again, the telephone conference call over POTS still delivers ALOT of bandwidth very efficiently. Not that I am a fan of the Telcos, I am a fan of the POTS, its a very mature infrastructure that delivers very high value.

Time range

[j00r0m4nc3r]

Web traffic volumes will almost double every two years from 2007 to 2012

But ONLY until Dec 31, 2011 when it will immediately stop doubling.

Moore's Law works for technology.

[hhw]

With 10Gb circuits increasing in popularity and replacing OC48's, we're probably still in good shape, until 2012. Perhaps, by then the Cisco CRS-1 won't seem so overpriced. In the meantime, everyone can buy Juniper :)

Video conferencing schmideo conferencing

[bevoblake]

35% growth in video conferencing annually? Maybe, but the technology still has leaps and bounds to go. After attending a recent all-day meeting via video conferencing, I realized that:
1. You still can't make out expressions that well.
2. The software that is supposed to auto-focus the camera on people doesn't work very well at all, focusing on quiet side bar conversations all too often.
3. People were staring at their computers and blackberrys the entire time because very few people were actually in the same room.

Maybe we'll have 35% growth given the high price of travel these days, but the technology needs some help.

Butters' Law of Photonics

[donkawechico]

...says that the amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every nine months. So every time traffic doubles, capacity pentuples.

Granted, there's still the last-mile problem, deploying the technology, etc. But I wouldn't predict the collapse of the internet any time soon.