Talking Web, Memory Aids, and Solar Phones In 5 Years 109
jbrodkin writes "A talking Web, solar technology embedded in windows and cell phones, and the end of forgetting will all come in the next five years, IBM predicts in its third annual Next Five in Five list, detailing innovations that could change our lives in the next half-decade. The other predictions: We will all have digital shopping assistants and, separately, 'crystal balls' to predict our future health.
If IBM is right, in five years we'll forget about keyboards and use our voices to surf the Web on solar-powered laptops. DNA profiles will predict our personal health risks, and we'll get automatic reminders to perform daily tasks, generated by digital recording and analysis of our conversations."
Not sure about this one (Score:5, Interesting)
You will talk to the Web
I can't be positive, but I am pretty sure that I can type faster than a speech-recognition algorithm (currently) can convert my speech into text. I am also not sure that surfing the web using speech is such a great idea anyway. I like to think about things. Talking to my computer means (for me) that my thoughts would be less in depth (I think). Also, it might give "not safe for work" a whole new meaning, not to mention the "not safe for home". Anyway, what advantage would web browsing using speech bring us (aside from the obvious tremendous benefits to those who're impared and cannot type)? How would links work? How would firefox's awesome bar work? I am not suggesting that these problems are unsolvable. I am suggesting that it would be like trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist. Typing works fine. I don't need to talk to my monitor--I talk to myself too much as it is.
Does anyone type to the web now? (Score:5, Interesting)
Does anyone type to the web now? It seems to me most people use this thing called a mouse. Replacing a keyboard with voice recognition sucks. Replacing a mouse with voice recognition... let's just say I'm pretty sure that's one of the punishments featured in one of the lower circles of hell.
It's a load of crap. (Score:3, Interesting)
We already have some of these things (the talking web for example... even though it's abysmally expensive to do it right), and others of them we probably don't even want.
For example: solar cells on sidewalks will not become commond anytime soon. Why? Not because of solar cell efficiency, which has (finally) been increasing significantly. No, the problems there are interconnection and durability! Interconnection is problematic and expensive, and the thin-film cells are nowhere near durable enough for this kind of application... unless you embedded them in epoxy or something, which is a whole different can of worms.
Solar cells will not be embedded in cell phones! Why? Because even though solar cell efficiency is increasing, cell phones use a LOT of power (which is why they have lithium cells), and they keep getting smaller and smaller, with less room for solar cells. Further, nobody wants to clip their cell phone to their hat so that it absorbs enough sun.
I could go on, but I think I have made my point. IBM should be ashamed of this set of predictions. It was poorly thought out.
Re:I'm skeptical (Score:5, Interesting)
1. Solar power
This sounds a lot like the 50s and 60s sci-fi where every little gadget is nuclear powered. Not going to happen. I can imagine more and more portable devices switching to solar, but I think it will be closer to 10-15 years before it becomes widespread.
Phones need to much power to run off solar, but could be trickle charged with a solar charger. However that's not ideal for a device that sits in pockets and handbags and office buildings with little natural light.
2. DNA testing
Could happen, but I don't think it will be a common practice in 5 years time.
I hope you're right. I fear it will be misused far more than it will be used for good purpose.
3. Voice input
Speech to text is still pretty bad. Some examples of problems it still struggles with are handling different accents, background noise. I think instead of voice input we will see a lot more touch-screen interfaces similar to the Nintendo DS and iPhone. Keyboard + mouse will still rule the desktop.
URLs in particular are awful. They don't spell the way they sound. Imagine how long it would take to fill out a form with voice compared to typing if you have a decent typing rate.
4. Robot shop assistants
Sounds far too annoying and expensive for the retailers to catch on. Also what's the point of having a robot if a human then has to go and get the item(s) suggested by it? Why not have the human make the suggestions as is currently done?
What is happening is self serve. You scan the items yourself and are monitored. Sales assistants replaced with body guards. The "robots" are nothing more than scanners attached to weighing scales to help ensure you're not stealing product.
5. Memory aids
I doubt people's behavior will change so much in 5 years that everything we do will be recorded. I think we are heading that way, but I'd allow longer than 5 years for it to become mainstream. I'd also suggest that a lot of work still needs to be done with how data is stored, organized, searched etc. for this to become useful. There's no point in having everything recorded if you aren't able to find the information you need at a later date.
The problem isn't recording. (A voice recorder would do that just fine for a lot of tasks). It's recall and providing the information at the appropriate time. Ignoring the privacy implications of having every action recorded this technology is going to require AI to be useful.
Re:Misleading (Score:5, Interesting)
While I really like the concept of the Neural Interface, execution is going to be most likely screwed up.
For instance, if there is ANY possibility of bi-directional travel on the Neural Bus, If its closed source, I'm not interested. at all. If it is open source... well maybe.
But I can't see plugging anything that has any connection to Apple or Microsoft into my brain.
Hmmmmm (Score:5, Interesting)
Quote /Quote
For example: solar cells on sidewalks will not become commond anytime soon.
Strange this. Just this week, a Solar powered traffic sign was installed on the pavement(uk speak for sidewalk) right outside my house.
Here and in France (from my observations earlier this week) large number of roadside and even railway side equipment are spouting solar panels these days.
It is a pity that the large scale panels needed for domestic use are so expensive.
Re:I'm skeptical (Score:3, Interesting)
1. Solar power: Noone wants to carry around their mobile devices out in the open oriented to catch the most Sun. Solar panels on houses and cars I can understand, but they will never be anything more than a marketing gimmick on mobile devices.
3. Voice input: My first exposure to this was a demo from IBM in the mid 1990's. PCs have increased in power a lot since then and the quality of voice recognition has hardly changed, so I think it's going to take a major new discovery to make significant advances in the next five years.
4. Robot Shop Assistants: Marketing gimmick, might appear in a few sushi restaurants, but when people go shopping in brick and mortar stores, they want to deal with people not machines, otherwise they'd just do their shopping online.
5. Memory aids: Many people still find an old fashioned paper diary more usable than a PDA, there are a lot more advances needed in UI and AI technology before we will see devices like those described that are actually useful to the common man, as opposed to a tech geek who is willing to put up with the system's quirks, spend many man-months customizing it for their needs, and learn to use it properly.
And the number one reason why none of this is going to see light within the next five years is that R&D funding is already being slashed, and it is going to get a lot worse before it starts getting better again.
Re:End of Forgetting (Score:3, Interesting)
investor bait (Score:1, Interesting)
oh well at least it sounds more promising than whatever this was supposed to achieve:
http://www.research.ibm.com/BurrPuzzles/ [ibm.com]
Re:They're doin' it again (Score:4, Interesting)
5 years? Takeup of these things is accelerating.
The very first MP3 player (Eiger Labs MPMan F10) didn't go on sale until June 98, and 3rd Generation iPod was out by April 03. Admittedly it was a couple more years until they reached the 10s of millions of sales per quarter, depends on your definition of 'widely adopted'.
DVD players didn't go on sale until 96, and they were pretty dominant by about '01
Wireless networking was pretty much non-existent before 802.11b in October 99, but extremely popular 5 years later.
5 years is a long time these days.
Online TV-catchup (iplayer, hulu etc) was essentially non-existent 2 years ago - want to bet it will be 3 more years before it's widely adopted? iPlayer's already a sizeable % of all internet traffic in the UK.