The Myth of Upgrade Inevitability Is Dead 597
Several readers pointed out a ComputerWorld UK blog piece on the expanding ripples of the Vista fiasco. Glyn Moody quotes an earlier Inquirer piece about Vista, which he notes "has been memorably described as DRM masquerading as an operating system": "Studies carried out by both Gartner and IDC have found that because older software is often incompatible with Vista, many consumers are opting for used computers with XP installed as a default, rather than buying an expensive new PC with Vista and downgrading. Big business, which typically thinks nothing about splashing out for newer, more up-to-date PCs, is also having trouble with Vista, with even firms like Intel noting XP would remain the dominant OS within the company for the foreseeable future." Moody continues: "What's really important about this is not so much that Vista is manifestly such a dog, but that the myth of upgrade inevitability has been destroyed. Companies have realized that they do have a choice — that they can simply say 'no.' From there, it's but a small step to realizing that they can also walk away from Windows completely, provided the alternatives offer sufficient data compatibility to make that move realistic."
You don't have a choice (Score:3, Interesting)
Most people don't know its an upgrade (Score:5, Interesting)
Like most people in IT I spend a certain part of the year helping out those less fortunate than myself. Namely all the friends, friends of the wife, some bloke I met in the pub and the school in getting their computers to work. Most recently I fixed a couple of laptops and an internet connection, one was on XP the other on Vista, the wife asked to have her (XP) PC "look like" her husbands as she like the look of the interface. When I said it was a different operating system she said "Isn't it Windows then?"
The point is of course that it is Windows and the difference between XP and Vista for most users does just come down to the pretty window manager... until stuff doesn't work. The XP box was back-online in under 10 minutes, the Vista box took me longer due to the wonderful UAC and a driver problem.
Most of the time however I feel like a Mac salesman, I turn up with my Mac (the trouble shooting box) run all the tests and have them thinking "ooooh that must be hard to use because its so powerful and techy" then let them play around with it for a few minutes. I'd say that around 50% of those people I've supported this year who are looking at replacements are now looking at a Mac.
Now a Slashdot poll on what is the correct payment for these unofficial support calls (often at a party or other social function) would be good. Right now I'm getting around two bottles of wine and a decent meal out of it.
In some places it is impossible to upgrade (Score:5, Interesting)
I work for a hospital. Our medical records software does not support vista yet. General Electric is the vendor and they have recently announced vista compatibility will happen some time next year.
If they had been ready two years ago we might have tried it. With today's economic situation I don't think we can afford to upgrade.
So no vista for a 5,000 employee organization.
There are hundreds of other hospitals with the same medical records software.
XP just works. Why would anyone upgrade?
Re:Strange leap in logic... (Score:4, Interesting)
Yep, if Windows XP is "good enough", why would people flock to Linux anymore than Vista? It's even less likely than people eventually all adopting Vista. Which to be honest, does not at all look like a foregone conclusion anymore - not sure where that leaves us as it seems unlikely we can stay with XP for very many years more. I guess eventually more people and businesses may migrate to Vista, or else Microsoft will pull a "fixed-up" version of Vista out of the hat with Windows 7... OK so that's not so likely either.
Personally I will be sticking with my 3.5 y.o. desktop with XP (still just under a year's Dell on-site warranty, thanks to a 3 year offer a few months after my one year CAR ran out), and my 2 y.o. laptop also with XP (a year's Dell on-site warranty left on that too).
I did admittedly upgrade my graphics card in my desktop a year ago for €150, but I got €50 for my old card too.
I am inclined to think the days of frequent upgrading are at an end.
Sadly, Vista is still unstable long-term (Score:4, Interesting)
Since I'm a software designer and must support the latest standard, I upgraded to Vista so I can make sure that my programs are compatible.
Its been nothing but pain.
I'm very fanatic about keeping my system clean and functioning well, I don't install superfluous applications and am very careful about what I do install.
The problem is, VISTA seems to slowly degrade in stability over time with blue-screens appearing quite often after a few months of regular day to day use. Once it gets to more than 2-3 blue screens a day, I restore the OS from a clean image and then it works well for a while longer until the blue screens appear again.
The funny thing is, the blue screens seem to be from different system components (usbhost.sys, tcpip.sys, memory faults, etc...). If you may think this has something to do with hardware failure (which was my initial guess seeing references to USB and other hardware drivers crashing), you'd be wrong as a clean install or running XP gets rid of all these problems. And I'm not using any weird USB devices either, only Flash Drives and the occasional SD card reader.
The problem is (Score:4, Interesting)
My mac is still running Tiger and I don't see the need to upgrade to some other cat and I'm still running Mandriva 2007.
The days where I had to have the last are gone. And I consider myself a nerd. Normal users care even less.
Note, well I lied , I do have one laptop running Vista and it's OK. But I don't see the need to upgrade to W7 when it comes.
Re:last sentence (Score:5, Interesting)
Still, the fact is that someday, Microsoft will stop supporting XP even when it comes to security. That'll mean all those businesses who try to hang on will be forced to seek another option then, assuming MSFT hasn't learned and made something that would be a logical, worthwhile upgrade from XP. Assuming things stay the same by that point, you might start seeing a frenzied stampede away from Windows.
Microsoft's problem isn't Vista (Score:5, Interesting)
Microsoft's problem isn't really Vista, the bit of software.
Their major problem is their lack of understanding that good operating systems can't be created overnight and chucked on the shelves like white goods items under pressure of Sales and Marketing ... not even in a 3-year "overnight". Operating systems evolve into being good, and once they're getting close to being usable then you don't chuck them out just because you want new product in the catalog. Not if you're half sane.
And MS also seems to misunderstand the longevity of operating systems, the attachment that users form with them, people's reluctance to change, and the simple fact that something that works doesn't need to be replaced ... software doesn't wear out, nor obsoleted given incremental upgrades. The "all change" paradigm that seems to hold in MS is in total disregard of commonsense.
And lastly, MS has a real problem in understanding that people buy operating systems to serve their own needs, not to serve the needs of 3rd party content providers --- that's a severe requirements mismatch.
Vista also has technical issues of course, but MS has plenty of manpower to fix those. What I'm not sure it does have the ability to fix is its totally backwards perception of what they should be doing in this area.
The logic is REBELION (Score:3, Interesting)
If you are feeling that Vista is a scam, and that someone is trying to push you to buy new hardware, when you are told that there is a FREE version of an OS that lets you stay with your hardware and is community based you hear bells from heaven.
Software support pathetic even after 2 years!! (Score:3, Interesting)
At a hospital I consult, we use the E-Film PACS viewer to allow doctors to look at patient's XRays, MRIs, CT Scans etc. The problem with Vista is that even at this date, E-Film does not still work.
https://www.merge.com/EMEA/estore/content.aspx?pname=eFilm%20Workstation%E2%84%A2&returnUrl=&productID=185&contentTypeID=4 [merge.com]
I think it could be because of DRM and video stuff, but that is the job of Microsoft to worry.
And if as per recent reports, Windows 7 is just Windows Vista with rebranding, then XP will be the last version of Windows for a very long time indeed.
Re:People don't like vista, Whoop de doo (Score:5, Interesting)
More objective reviewers than "everyone I know" have found that the alleged speed advantage of Win7 doesn't bear scrutiny. Some have also pointed out that it's not really a new OS, just an attempt to recover from a marketing disaster by applying lipstick and eyeliner to that sad old pig we call Vista.
Here's just one example. There's plenty of others out there.
http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/index.cfm?newsid=107030 [pcadvisor.co.uk]
I'll leave aside the whole DRM question, except to note that an OS which I bought and paid for that puts the "rights" of notoriously predatory and dishonest entertainment corporations before my own is not something I'd want on my computer.
Re:OpenOffice.org (Score:2, Interesting)
MOD PARENT UP (Score:3, Interesting)
This is a great point. If any other company treated you like Microsoft does, you wouldn't take it, you would change. If you couldn't change at the moment, you would position yourself so that you could change sooner rather than later.
Re:last sentence (Score:5, Interesting)
I take issue with this bit:
why would 70% of eeePC sales be XP models?
At least where I'm living (in western europe), there's no way to get one of the decent hardware versions (i.e. models 901, 1000) in the Linux version.
In fact, I've just this morning ordered a couple XP versions, fully intending to not even boot those but to immediately replace them by my favourite Linux version. So, Asus will have sold a couple of XP licenses, but they won't ever get used - how many more like me are there? I don't even know if there's a chance to get my money back on the licenses.
I'm even happily shelling out Euros to at least get the kind of keyboard that's standard in this country instead of the foreign ones offered locally.
Asus, your sales model sucks! Unfortunately, the alternatives aren't any more palatable.
Law of diminishing returns is in effect in OSes... (Score:5, Interesting)
The law of diminishing returns is in effect in OSes as well. It is just not possible to see in the future the massive changes in infrastructure and operating systems we have seen in the past. 8 years ago, going from Windows ME to Windows 2K or from Office 6 to Office 2000 meant a massive increase of stability and features. Today, going from Windows XP to Windows Vista or from Office 2000 to Office 2007 does not offer anything substantially important to the average user.
It is absurd to think that people will keep changing their tools every so often. Once tools are satisfactory enough, they stay. It has happened in programming languages (C, for example, despite all the progress in programming language theory and technology, remains the basis that everything is based on). It is now happening in operating systems. Windows XP will be with us for a long time.
The only time that we are going to see massive changes is when operating systems will become much easier to use, for example like we see in science fiction or something.
Re:last sentence (Score:3, Interesting)
Well that's just plain weird. Or you run in an exceptionally homogenous crowd.
Almost every developer I know these days uses a Mac laptop, unless they only develop Windows apps (and even some of those tote the fruit). And I am all over the world.
Re:last sentence (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:last sentence (Score:5, Interesting)
If XP is end of life and Windows 7 is supported, it's already better right there. Sorry to say this mate, but I have a vague feeling Windows 7 will be better regardless.
Currently I'm running Vista on my corporate desktop, and I'm not unhappy about it. The only gripe I have with the platform is that network discovery is done every time you open Windows explorer.
If I hibernate / sleep while on the corporate network, and I wake up that thing at home, opening an explorer window will take ~20 seconds because it tries to access the previously mapped network drives. This should be done out of band or potentially not at all in my view, not *every* bloody time you open an explorer. It's a bad implementation.
Apart from that the GUI is nice, the Networking menus are a pain in the backside, and XP's control panel was better. However, it manages sleep / hibernation more nicely and runs very (dare I say it) stable with the software suite I need.
To cut a long story short, I've been with Windows since 1.0x and I can tell you that in general the quality of the OS has been going up steadily. Vista is not perfect, but it's a *lot* nicer than NT4, 2000 for the desktop, 98, 95. Whether it's better than XP is somewhat debatable, but in the end it's a tight race. All in all, the trend is upwards.
Now Windows 7 or whatever the new iteration for the Desktop will be, will likely be better than XP indeed. Anyone who claims different probably hasn't paid attention to MicroSoft's history.
The thing is that this site is a Linux-centric religious institute, so obviously you'll easily and frequently hear "Upgrade myth busted", "Linux to dominate world in 2009" and "w00t!". The truth is that MicroSoft isn't all bad, and neither is Linux, but at the end of the day I do believe people will skip Vista to some degree (ME anyone?) only to hop on board at the next iteration again.
Which is not necessarily bad for the market or the consumers.
Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)
Compatibility (Score:3, Interesting)
TFA says that people are sticking with XP because of compatibility problems. Now, if businesses are to move away from Windows, you will have to prove to them that their old software is more likely to run on Linux/Wine, than on Windows Vista.
The question is, how does wine compare to Vista in terms of compatibility with older versions of Windows?
Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Depends of your point of view (Score:2, Interesting)
I don't agree, I was one of those dads as was MY own dad, who left the store with vista under the arm, and lo and behold, before the warranty was up, I brought it back, asked for a refund (they were very
unhappy, but could do nothing about it...guarantee allows it) and bought a used computer with xp on it....for both I and my dad, and this is not the only time I have heard the same thing (others I know at work).
Your analogy is wrong, sticking a STUPID label on the consumer, is not the way to go, they WILL rebel against what they think is crap. They WONT always take it up the arse, and M$ can go back to the drawing board (as any other company who made mistakes) and start over!
Re:Upgrading must be for a reason (Score:3, Interesting)
Except that in most cases the choice is not the user's to make. If my company has made a decision to use Windows, then my choices are to either quit or stage some sort of elaborate civil disobedience likely to get me fired. Since, in most cases, and specifically in the GPs case, the question is one of using the computer to get specific work done for a specific company; both options seem like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Most of us chose to give up a little freedom (the freedom to chose our own platform in the work environment) in exchange for a greater freedom (the freedom to buy out own choice of platform with the money we make, as well as the ability to power that platform and house it in a comfortable use environment, etc.)
Re:Upgrading must be for a reason (Score:3, Interesting)
Replying to AC but might as well...
Are you actually comparing an upgrade path, in a non-sarcastic manner, to abuse?
No, I'm simply stating the personal experience which has lead me to take the position that there is ALWAYS a choice available, and that actively and assertively looking for and making those choices is FAR healthier than saying "I have no choice" and defaulting out, passively letting whatever make the the choice for you.
This is true regardless of what the particulars of the case may be. In this particular case I've made mine, am happy with it, and sure, I'd like others to make the same choice, but as I took pains to state, other than for myself, it's not my choice to make. If someone assertively chooses the proprietary route, so be it, but either way they live with the choice, and recognizing it as a choice and assertively making it, taking control of their own destiny, is far healthier than the copout of "Oh, I had no choice, X forced me" (regardless of whether X=MS or RMS, or an abuser, or whatever).
To make it clearer by citing another example, I've made the same argument when people claim they have no choice as to their ISP, since it's the only broadband provider in their area. That it may be, and that may indeed be the best choice by far, but all it takes to see the other choices is to consider what one might do if that ISP went out of business, or raised their rates to say $10k/mo for what was a standard residential account. The choice one might then make would certainly have to do with one's relative priorities, as they do with that ISP still in business with the current offering, but among other possible alternatives, there's (1) dialup, (2) moving to where there are other broadband alternatives (yes, it may mean selling one's house, switching jobs, moving away from friends and family, all perfectly valid reasons for some, but reasons that reflect one's individual relative priorities, high speed Internet vs ??), (3) deciding neither dialup nor moving are worth it and simply doing without Internet, etc. There's absolutely a choice. Actively searching for it, assertively making it, then living with and dynamically adjusting relative priorities and further choices, are all part of the game.
Sure, I'd like everyone to make the choice for freedomware, but I'm not fooling myself that it'll happen, and it's not my place or that of anyone else to attempt to force people's choice one way or the other. Were I to try to do so, I'd be making myself your master, no better and arguably much worse than the proprietary software folks I so despise for attempting to take away my freedoms.
Re:last sentence (Score:5, Interesting)
Windows 2000 is still supported until 2010. At least for corporate people. Microsoft really is between a rock and a hard place with XP support. Corporations see no real benefit to Vista. Pretty doesn't really help.
Office also is facing a real lack of motivation as far as upgrading goes as well.
I think that Microsoft knows that it can no longer brow beat it's customers.
Will more people move to Linux? Maybe if more and more stuff keeps moving to a browser interface and away from VB.
I think Microsoft will end up supporting XP for a lot longer than it ever wanted too. And will be selling it a lot longer as well. I can still buy it at BestCityUSADepoMax.
Re:Depends of your point of view (Score:1, Interesting)
If you're talking about the home user, then they will change as soon as they buy new hardware. They will take what they are given and they will like it.
Not in my experience. Off the top of my head I know 4 home users that bought a new computer in the last few months--all 4 got a Mac for the first time. All are amazed that they "just work" for everything they do, which is digital photos, email, web surf, docs, and spreadsheets. Another consumer I know bought an XP netbook for her 7th grade daughter, and would have bought a Mac notebook if the price was lower. All had options, all are very satisfied with their purchase.
Re:last sentence (Score:5, Interesting)
Well, this Apple "fanboi" is, in my own small way, annoying to Microsoft's OS ambitions because I can run XP in a virtual machine that moves with me across my various desktops, laptop, etc, in a 100% consistent "hardware" environment so I can stay on the hardware upward speed curve as Apple brings out new machines, but I don't have to deal with XP not understanding later architectures, nor with it "playing in the street" outside a network sandbox.
I can keep XP safely off the net, even while OSX is fully connected; I can keep it safely backed up outside the world it knows about; and I can knock it back to a "newly installed, but fully enabled" condition by simply copying one file. I can maintain a full software development environment within this virtual XP machine, and if I need something from the net, I'll get it with the Apple and safely hand it over using a virtual filesystem.
No more Microsoft upgrades. Period. Microsoft has seen their last OS dollar from me. And I'm glad; I feel that it was an abusive relationship, both as a developer, and as a user.
I keep a couple virtual linux machines available on my desktop as well, Ubuntu and Redhat; don't have to go to such extremes, as they're about as safe on the net as OSX is. Someday, if they ever develop an actual open, standardized GUI API that is free for everyone to use, regardless of why they want to use it, I may develop for linux, too. In the meantime, I'm keeping my hand in. I like linux, and I particularly like Ubuntu.
Re:Upgrading must be for a reason (Score:3, Interesting)
Imagine a that a computer user is actually a hungry person, and that the job this person has to do is eat a bowl of soup to survive.
Well, as all analogies, this one is a rather imperfect fit, but let's examine it, then.
Imagine that this hungry person has only three ways to eat the bowl of soup:
With a spoon (Windows)
With a fork (Mac)
With a knife (Linux)
You're ignoring or failing to see the obvious alternative, slurping directly from the bowl. This isn't uncommon, and failure to see what is to everybody outside the circumstances the most obvious and compelling alternative is in fact one of the prime characteristics of victim syndrome. Remember that girl a few years ago who had been kidnapped and lived for years with her kidnapper? Remember how he took her shopping for cloths and etc several times, and never once in the department stores or whatever did she tell anyone, or ask to make a call to the police, or etc?. Remember that kidnapped guy who was alone at the house of the kidnapper for much of the day while his kidnapper worked at the pizza restaurant? Having been an abuse victim myself, and come out of it, I immediately recognized the trait. They failed to /see/ the otherwise obvious alternative because they were living inside the victim reality distortion field. To the victim, it's as if that alternative literally doesn't exist! There's no logical way to explain it. It can't logically be explained, because the victim isn't thinking logically. They have victim syndrome, and literally cannot see some or all of the best alternatives.
The best defense to such a syndrome once one has had it once, because as I said, it's a pattern that all too often repeats, is to deliberately and actively LOOK for alternatives, constantly and consistently forcing oneself into actively exploring every possible alternative, continually and dynamically reranking personal priorities, and assertively making a choice among those one finds based upon those priorities. Take life by the horns, grab it by the balls, assertively go after it, finding and making choices, accepting responsibility for them, and dynamically adjusting one's priorities and choices based on the results and fate as it happens. Make it instinctive, a survival instinct, because in a very real way, for one who HAS been an abuse victim, one's mental health and possibly very survival DOES depend on it.
Once one starts actively looking for the choices, one does tend to see more of them, as here. But continuing the analogy...
Something else you failed to mention here, tho you mention the option in passing later, is that your "spoon" remains a spoon, while your "knife" comes complete with instructions for a "magic spell" that turns it into a spoon... or a fork... tho both somewhat different than the spoon and fork above... or for "magically" splitting in half with the other half becoming a bowl or a pot, as needed. All this comes for free if you choose the knife, which, by the way, is also free, while the spoon and fork both cost a substantial amount, altho it does seem that in many cases, if you buy a house, you get one spoon and sometimes a cup as well, included for "free", but you MUST choose the spoon that comes WITH the house, tho you can often buy similar houses for less, without the spoon, or optionally with the knife, elsewhere.
Of course, if you choose the spoon above, you can buy it by itself, or by spending more, in a "complete set" bundled with some other utensils. One can also purchase separately from a variety of vendors all sorts of additional cutlery to match. But while the magic spells for the knife also work for the spoon, it doesn't ship with them, and in fact, you must sign an agreement the first time you use the spoon saying you'll never use such "unauthorized" spells, altho for a rather hefty fee, they'll be happy to provide you some rather more limited and at times only single use spells. Or of course, you can ju
Re:Upgrading must be for a reason (Score:3, Interesting)
No, my first line indicates that it is not the user's choice which OS is used in their work environment (or at least it often isn't. I've had a couple of jobs where I could chose my workstation platform, but far more where I couldn't). I then point out that there are choices that the user CAN make, but which OS they use at a particular job is often not one of them. I also point out that to make those choices, in the context of the original posters remarks, is silly.
If I say to you, "I am having trouble using Windows to do my job" and you response is "Use Linux", that's fine. If I further comment that my job won't let me use Linux, for you to further attempt to convince to me to either do so anyway, or find a new job, is taking things out of the context of the original discussion. My problem is with using Windows to do my job, quitting or getting fired by violating company IT policy doesn't solve that problem. I still can't use Windows to do my current job, and I still can't switch OSes at that job. It's quite likely that I like my job and losing it completely over a frustration with a specific OS on a specific application is nuts.
Re:Upgrading must be for a reason (Score:1, Interesting)
IOW, yes, it may be the employer's choice what OS you use at work, but it's your choice whether you work there. There are certainly consequences to be had for the various available choices. But the choice remains, and which choice you make reflects your individual priorities.
(As I mentioned in a reply to AC) I make the same argument in the context of people complaining they have no choice of ISP as well, when there's only one broadband ISP in their area, pointing out that there remains other choices, dialup, moving somewhere with more choices, doing without, all choices some people make.
I believe I am noticing a pattern in your argumentation. So, basically, you are arguing against promoting "tough choice" into "no choice" as people often shorthand. However, it still doesn't provide satisfactory answer for people. You basically told them that they are, in fact, optimally satisfied, because they made their choice based on their own priorities' hierarchy:
"Why are you asking for help, when you don't want anything to change?"
I guess people just feel better after a whine. Show some sympathy, that'll comfort them some.
Re:last sentence (Score:1, Interesting)
I'm still hard pressed to see XP as "better" than 2K, as I feel like when Microsoft finally made the NT core have a GUI and driver set up consistent with their 9x line, they had done about all they needed to do. In fact, the only reason I switched to XP originally after running 2K for 6 years on my desktop was due to poor USB2 support on a desktop system. 2K was just as stable, a bit quicker out of the box, and didn't start up the fruity interface by default. All pluses to me.
Vista's interface, for the time I've used it, makes no sense. Shit is just moved for the sake of moving. The Start menu suddenly feels like they took the attempt at refining things that they started in XP, added the sorta useful search feature, then lost all semblance of inspiration and started randomly moving things around. They added "symlinks", but again failed to grasp the idea properly, leaving Vista with a half-assed implementation of something that EVERY modern OS except theirs has right. The network manager, as you mentioned, is horrendous; the system tray icon has a lag from click to showing a menu that leaves me thinking, "why does that menu take THAT long to come up?"
Aero doesn't look nearly as good as Aqua or Compiz/Beryl, and forces your window borders to take up too much space. Flid3D? Fucking please, it's just pretty ALT+TAB with Expose' envy. About the only thing MS got right was the new prefetching algorithms and ReadyBoost. Those made it pretty quick at some cacheable disk operations, but outside that... the hell were they thinking?
Windows 7 had better show the focus that Vista distinctly lacked, or it's going to really leave a lot of people scratching their heads and asking "Why were these guys the market leader again?"
Re:last sentence (Score:2, Interesting)
Python for the win (Score:3, Interesting)
I have yet to walk into a SMB and not have one or more mission critical apps running VB6.
I've walked into a SMB [wikipedia.org], and all the applications were written in 6502 assembly language [wikipedia.org].
As for small or medium businesses, the first thing I did at my current job was rewrite some of their Excel+VBA apps in Python for a major boost in speed and maintainability.