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Comments: 381 +-   Analyst, 15, Creates Storm After Trashing Twitter on Monday July 13, @08:19AM

Posted by CmdrTaco on Monday July 13, @08:19AM
from the twitter-is-for-old-people dept.
internet
Barence writes "A 15-year-old schoolboy has become an overnight sensation after writing a report on teenagers' media habits for analysts Morgan Stanley. Intern Matthew Robson was asked to write a report about his friends' use of technology during his work experience stint with the firm's media analysts. The report was so good the firm decided to publish it, and it generated 'five or six' times more interest than Morgan Stanley's regular reports. The schoolboy poured scorn on Twitter, claiming that teenagers 'realize that no one is viewing their profile, so their tweets are pointless.' He also claimed games consoles are replacing mobile phones as the way to chat with friends."
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  • The schoolboy poured scorn on Twitter, claiming that teenagers "realize that no one is viewing their profile, so their tweets are pointless".

    Sounds familiar [tonightsbedtimestory.com]:

    So now the Emperor walked under his high canopy in the midst of the procession, through the streets of his capital; and all the people standing by, and those at the windows, cried out, "Oh! How beautiful are our Emperor's new clothes! What a magnificent train there is to the mantle; and how gracefully the scarf hangs!" in short, no one would allow that he could not see these much-admired clothes; because, in doing so, he would have declared himself either a simpleton or unfit for his office. Certainly, none of the Emperor's various suits, had ever made so great an impression, as these invisible ones.

    "But the Emperor has nothing at all on!" said a little child.

    "Listen to the voice of innocence!" exclaimed his father; and what the child had said was whispered from one to another.

    "But he has nothing at all on!" at last cried out all the people. The Emperor was vexed, for he knew that the people were right; but he thought the procession must go on now! And the lords of the bedchamber took greater pains than ever, to appear holding up a train, although, in reality, there was no train to hold.

    • I'm trying to figure out why Morgan Stanley is the place for this kind of article. And I hate it when the media has such a hay-day over something, that Google becomes useless because all you can find are media reports about something, and it's close to impossible to find out the "something" they're reporting on.

      Honestly, it's just a 15 year old kid with some views of his life. I highly doubt he's actually got anything revolutionary to say. I think it's just a case of people caught on the twitter media train suddenly realizing that twitter isn't god to everybody, despite what reports say.
      • by thedonger (1317951) on Monday July 13, @08:34AM (#28675285)

        I highly doubt he's actually got anything revolutionary to say.

        Just wait. Any day now we will see the armies of teenagers emerge carrying around their PS3's and Xboxes instant messaging each other while their cell phones rest idly in their pockets, ringing on deaf ears like so many unread tweets...

      • I'm trying to figure out why Morgan Stanley is the place for this kind of article.

        Morgan Stanley is an investment bank. They offer investment advice. In this case, they're providing a counter-opinion to the general media "OMG Twitter is the greatest thing since sliced bread" analysis. It's a very different kind of market analysis from what we conventionally see, and something potentially interesting to someone who might be looking at tech stocks. Twitter stock isn't sold publicly, but it's still relevant to the potential future of the sector.

        Honestly, it's just a 15 year old kid with some views of his life. I highly doubt he's actually got anything revolutionary to say.

        I'm normally as disparaging of teenagers as they come, having recently left that "I know everything there is to know" stage of my life (I'm 22). But whereas the average teenager is working retail or ogling bikinis at the local pool, this kid's interning at one of the most powerful companies in the world, and wrote something that sufficiently impressed them that they published it under their name. Sounds like a smart kid.

      • by pla (258480) on Monday July 13, @11:30AM (#28678183) Journal
        Honestly, it's just a 15 year old kid with some views of his life. I highly doubt he's actually got anything revolutionary to say.

        Revolutionary, no. Marketable, yes.

        A lot of companies consider Twitter the "next big thing", when in reality, not only has Twitter always had major problems, it jumped the shark at least a year ago. Then some kid comes out and effectively points-and-laughs at all the foolish VCs trying to recapture the glory of the Dot Com bubble... Something they'd love to ignore, but unfortunately he perfectly represents their target audience. Not something easily ignored when you have billions on the table calling his bluff, basically betting that this particular 15YO differs enough from the norm that you won't lose your shirt.

        Now, the point about in-game chats, well, he has a point, but one limited in validity to his particular market segment (young males with a lot of free time and decent access to money). In that segment, he very much describes reality... Who would bother texting or even booting a PC to chat, when the standalone networked device you sit in front of for 8+ hours a day already has that functionality built in? That doesn't mean texting or IM will go away, but if you want to appeal to a 15YO male PS3 junkie, you'd damned well better know where to reach him.
        • by robthebloke (1308483) on Monday July 13, @09:12AM (#28675797)
          Mobile phone's cost money, and we are talking about a 15 yo kid. Most teenages have pay as you go phones that are all out of credit - "call me, I can recieve but can't send.....". Whenever I go into the local newsagent to buy some ciggys, during any half term (or any other school break), I normally see a large gaggle of teenagers scraping some coins together to get £2 phone credit.

          It's therefore very unsurprising that this teenager, with his limited world view, has decided that games consoles are better to communicate with, than an expensive phone. First there's the cost. Second, if he's a gamer, there's a good chance his friends are gamers, and since they are unlikely to be in the pub (because they are too young), they'll probably be found at home, infront of theirs consoles. It is therefore the best communication medium for *him*.

          Granted the kid will grow up, start going to the pub, and have his own income that he can spend on phone credit. At that point, he'll have probably ditched consoles all together, and got himself a brand new iPhone 9, and be playing Halo 17 on the bus back from work on it.

          Even though it was not that long ago, it's very easy to forget how your mind worked when you were a teenager. Every so often something like this will come along and remind you how small minded you were just a few years ago ;)
        • by Lumpy (12016) on Monday July 13, @09:46AM (#28676261) Homepage

          Look at stock performance over the past 24 months, I think it's wise to IGNORE anything any Stock adviser tells you. these guys dont know their anus from a hole in the ground lately. I've had better luck going AGAINST all their recommendations during the past 24 months..

  • Nice disclaimer (Score:5, Informative)

    by salesgeek (263995) on Monday July 13, @08:24AM (#28675171) Homepage

    From the article: Morgan Stanley points out that Robson's assessment of the media landscape doesn't have the statistical rigour of its regular reports.

    • by AliasMarlowe (1042386) on Monday July 13, @09:10AM (#28675765) Journal

      From the article: Morgan Stanley points out that Robson's assessment of the media landscape doesn't have the statistical rigour of its regular reports.

      The next regular report will, no doubt, assert with full statistical rigour that "Twitter is for twits". It's been manifestly evident to many of us since its very inception.
      People don't "tweet", they mostly be-twit themselves - sometimes quite impressively in only 140 characters. Others merely follow the twaddle produced by their twit-idols (a motley collection of vacuous celebrities, sports stars, self-serving shills, and the like). Still, pumping the hype on the way up was good for fleecing investors. Presumably Morgan Stanley can now fleece them again on the way down.

      • Re:Nice disclaimer (Score:5, Insightful)

        by demachina (71715) on Monday July 13, @10:58AM (#28677557)

        You left out Twitter and Facebook suckered large numbers of Iranian and Guatemalan young people in to posting anti government rants on them, thinking they were going to overthrow their government with Twitter. Now that's a laugh. It was a stellar part of the Twitter hype to make everyone think Twitter would lead to an instantaneous outbreak of Democracy across the globe. CNN was a leading purveyor of this myth. Since CNN has pretty much ceased to function as a news network all they have left to do is grasp at straws in the form of Twitter, Facebook and iReport. They kind of missed the fact its nearly impossible to verify anything you get from the anonymous public, or to have any confidence in the source. Howard Stern pranks proved this.

        Note to wanna be young Iranian rebels, Iran monitors all Internet traffic so using Twitter in the clear provides the Basij with an instantaneous mechanism to identify, arrest and track you and your rabble-rouser friends. Note to all future young wanna be rebels, all your internet activities are probably being watched. Your Twitter and Facebook pages aren't a good place to organize a revolution unless you really know what you are doing. Don't use them unless you are using anonymous WiFi stolen from your neighbor so they get busted instead, or a very good anonymizer like Tor. Try reading Cory Doctorow's Little Brother so you will at least be in the correct mind set for interacting with authoritarian governments who use computers to oppress their people, like Iran, Russia... and the U.S.

        "Little Brother" is a somewhat flawed work but at least it teaches paranoia. Note to Linux community, someone really needs to put together Paranoid Linux and XNet with Tor, gnupg, WiFi sniffers, security tools, etc. and make sure computer noobs who want to overthrow their out of control governments have it, and can use it out of the box even if they are noobs.

        There is a reason the NSA is building two giant new data centers in Utah and San Antonio and expanding the one in Maryland. They appear to be preparing to spy on a whole lot more communications traffic than they already are. Anyone who think America's bout with Big Brother ended when Obama replaced Bush are sadly mistaken. The Democrats are just as eager to spy on everyone and destroy all our civil liberties as the Cheneyists were.

        A burning question of the 21st century is if computers will liberate us or enslave us. The paradoxical answer is they will probably do both at the same time.

    • Re:Nice disclaimer (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 13, @09:17AM (#28675853)

      From the article: Morgan Stanley points out that Robson's assessment of the media landscape doesn't have the statistical rigour of its regular reports.

      No kidding... It reads as if he's assuming that just because he and his five friends don't use Twitter, it follows that nobody his age uses Twitter. And then he just makes up some random reasons to support his claim. How does he know *why* teenagers don't use it; has he done any research? Or just picked the first thing that flew into his head?

      I could have written a report when I was that age saying that no teenager watches NASCAR or soccer because I didn't and most of my friends didn't.

      I don't blame the kid for writing this way (he's not old enough to know better), but I find it bizarre that Morgan Stanley would take this seriously.

      I always find it annoying when the media or a company takes the say-so of one individual and thinks that one person could possible speak for all teenagers / African-Americans / middle-aged white people / etc...

  • Relativity (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Aurisor (932566) on Monday July 13, @08:28AM (#28675207) Homepage

    If a 15-year-old "analyst" writes one of the most "clearest and most thought-provoking insights" for your publication, that says a lot more about your publication (and the state of American journalism) than the 15-year-old in question.

    Why don't we ask him to write about homework ("a near-epidemic in America") early bedtimes ("a gross violation of the constitution") and girls ("icky!") while we're at it?

    Fucking embarrassing.

    • Re:Relativity (Score:5, Informative)

      by Kokuyo (549451) on Monday July 13, @08:42AM (#28675395)

      Your being fifteen must have been a looooooooooong time ago if you truly think 'icky' would enter a boy's mind at this age when asked about girls.

      Dude, fifteen year old girls have BREASTS, remember that. ;)

      But I concur, if such an article has much more audience than your usual content you should really start thinking about changing your usual content.

    • Slurm (Score:5, Insightful)

      by pushf popf (741049) on Monday July 13, @08:45AM (#28675435)
      If a 15-year-old "analyst" writes one of the most "clearest and most thought-provoking insights" for your publication, that says a lot more about your publication (and the state of American journalism) than the 15-year-old in question.

      What it says is that most people working in "business" are disconnected from reality and produce nothing of value.

      The only real problem is that some moron let this kid inside to see the Slurm factory and now he knows.
      • Re:Relativity (Score:5, Informative)

        by hoggoth (414195) on Monday July 13, @10:09AM (#28676707) Journal

        > Isaac Newton published many of the founding principles of physics aged 17 and heÂd already written a great deal before that, even before he was 15 in fact.

        Isaac Newton was born in 1643. Newton developed the generalized binomial theorem, his first work, in 1665 when he was 22 years old but didn't publish any of it for many years. He published his most important and famous work, the "Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica" in 1687 when he was 44 years old.

        Not 15 or 17.

        In fact.

  • Why is it... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Ynsats (922697) on Monday July 13, @08:36AM (#28675327)

    ...there have been numerous articles written on the lameness of waste of bandwidth that twitter is and they get shot down as anti-pop babble. Yet a 15 year old kid writes a dismissive and somewhat rambling "analytical" report saying that twitter is lame and a waste of time and all of a sudden he's a genius with social insight in to media tools?

    Tools meaning things people use to communicate, like telephones (yes, they still have those). Not tools meaning the talking heads like the ones the reported on the 15 year old's report.

    • Re:Why is it... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Darkness404 (1287218) on Monday July 13, @08:47AM (#28675463)
      ...Because the media by and large thinks that (or at least implies) that every kid age 13-20 has a MySpace, Twitter and Facebook accounts, that they own a PS3, 360 and Wii. Basically what this report is saying is that Twitter is simply a fad. That it doesn't capture the attention of the people who presumably would be the next big adopters. How is this useful to businesses? Well, if they are targeting 13-20 year olds, they might want to invest in different advertising than on Twitter especially for the long term.
    • ...there have been numerous articles written on the lameness of waste of bandwidth that twitter is and they get shot down as anti-pop babble. Yet a 15 year old kid writes a dismissive and somewhat rambling "analytical" report saying that twitter is lame and a waste of time and all of a sudden he's a genius with social insight in to media tools?

      The issue you notice is simple. If anyone above the age of 20 wrote this report, he or she would be viewed as "old" or "not with it" and the report would be dismissed as sour grapes or get off my lawn or some such thing. Oh, but wait, we have a 15 year old telling us this? Shit, that's the demographic this is supposed to work on! Oh man, now we better listen. And suddenly, overnight, it's okay to doubt Twitter's power out loud. Amazing.

      The news here is that it took the voice of an innocent to wake up business men looking for the next marketing scam to pull on young people. "MySpace didn't work for marketing, maybe this Twitter thing will work? Never mind that I think it's stupid, I don't want to out myself as technologically inept and reveal I don't even use e-mail. No, we must avoid our inadequacies instead of addressing them." That's basically what's at work, very much like The Emperor's New Clothes (see my post above).

      • Re:Why is it... (Score:4, Insightful)

        by PainKilleR-CE (597083) on Monday July 13, @11:06AM (#28677671)

        Most people should have known that Twitter's days were numbered when CNN and The View started harping on people to follow them on Twitter. That's generally a sign that it's over, not that it's the next big thing.

      • Re:Why is it... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by AK Marc (707885) on Monday July 13, @11:36AM (#28678287)
        If anyone above the age of 20 wrote this report, he or she would be viewed as "old" or "not with it" and the report would be dismissed as sour grapes or get off my lawn or some such thing. Oh, but wait, we have a 15 year old telling us this? Shit, that's the demographic this is supposed to work on! Oh man, now we better listen. And suddenly, overnight, it's okay to doubt Twitter's power out loud. Amazing.

        There is a massive and explicit difference between the reports. Others said "Twitter is stupid." This kid said "Twitter isn't bad, but the uses of it are driving away long-term users and leaving those that follow personalities." Twitter itself is a good idea. It's a convenient place for a mass-IM to subscribers. If people only sent tweets on important things, it would be permanent. However, when people get bathroom updates, it's all crap. I'm not on. I don't want to be that connected. But if I were on, I'd have sent out something like one per month or less (and they'd be big things, like one narcisist one about my vacation to California, one about my wife being pregnant, and one about getting New Zealand permanent residency, with the next one being the date that we are leaving the country, once known). But with multiple per day, I don't care when someone's going to the mall so I can run into them there. I may be old, but if I wanted to run into someone, I'd text them, not announce it to masses.

        And that's why twitter will fail. To promote themselves, they promoted the "tweet everything" attitude, and people do. And that drives off those that want medium connectivity, not webcam-in-the-bathroom connectivity. And that's the idea behind why this kid said it is going to fail. Not any problem with the technology or the general idea, but the current usage and its lack of sustainability.
    • He's just poor (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Chemisor (97276) on Monday July 13, @09:44AM (#28676219) Journal

      If you actually read the report, you'll see that he and his friends are mainly concerned with cost. Twitter is not used because sending a text message to twitter costs money, and, since nobody reads their profiles anyway, it's better to send the message to friends directly. The rest of the report is on the same theme: teenagers don't want to spend any money. This is certainly not a new trend; when I was in high school, my allowance was certainly inadequate to subscribe to expensive services, buy computer games, or expensive gadgets. I don't see why anyone is surprized that this is all still true today.

  • by acehole (174372) on Monday July 13, @08:37AM (#28675329) Homepage

    Once I read this report I tossed out my iphone and blackberry. I now walk around with the convenience of a xbox 360 and Playstation 3 strapped on each side of my hip. I also attach an atari 2600 to my chest for legacy situations.

    Me: 1 Technology: 0

     

  • by SlashBugs (1339813) on Monday July 13, @08:41AM (#28675381)
    It's a facet of human nature that people tend to assume that others think and behave broadly the same way they do. Like the techs in the recent Gnome 3.0 posts arguing that everyone intuitively understands what icons, links, files and folders mean on a computer (tell that to my dad, who just barely knows how to click the "internet" icon and browse simple websites), or political activists who assume that their oppositions must see the world the same way they do, so they're just lying. Heck, there's the whole "internet community" who read a pile of overlapping sites (/., techcrunch, digg, boingboing, etc) and assume that the rest of the internet does too, so that a survey of those sites (legalise cannabis, allow torrents, etc) represents the views and priorities of everyone else. They forget e.g. the big rings of craft websites whose members have probably never heard of 4chan and digg, much less read them, not to mention the many more people who simply don't go on social websites beyond facebook.

    It's just the echo chamber effect. A teenager knows that this is how he and his friends use technology, so he assumes it's true for everyone else. So the report might be an interesting insight into how he thinks, but totally useless for anyone who wants an actual profile of his age group.
  • by synthesizerpatel (1210598) on Monday July 13, @08:41AM (#28675385)

    Sounds like Morgan Stanley feels that this point is so blatantly obvious that it even by delivering it via a virtual nobody from the demographic that twitter is supposed to be the most popular with wouldn't dilute the truth.

    However, while I think twitter is pretty boring myself you do have to admit -- if you're a 15 year old kid writing research reports for Morgan Stanley odds are you don't have the pulse of social networking trends.

  • by FreeUser (11483) on Monday July 13, @08:44AM (#28675429) Homepage

    Has anyone actually found the damn report? As another pointed out, google search is so polluted with 2nd and 3rd hand accounts that googling the report is singulary unrevealing (or perhaps more accurately: multiplicatively unrevealing). Unlike other snarky comments here, I wouldn't be surprised if this kid's observations weren't dead on. I'm unsurprised twitter is considered passe, I'm unsurprised that teenagers are finding better ways to chat than SMS messages pecked out on a cell phone number pad, and I'm unsurprised that teenagers are abandoning television and print media as primary information sources, given how often those expensive and slow media forms have been shown to be inaccurate, overtly deceptive, and (worst of all for a young person) utterly out of touch with the zeitgeist of the moment.

    About the only surprise in the captions is that young people are using gaming consoles more than other media for chatting, but that may be down to me not being a gamer. In any event, I'd like to read the report before passing judgement, and particularly befor joining the jaded, knee-jerk reaction of "the kid's clueless, we shouldn't listen" mantra that seems to have become so common on slashdot (and makes us all sound like cranky old men, even more out of touch with the world's current trends than the Old Media).

  • by gubers33 (1302099) on Monday July 13, @08:55AM (#28675551)
    Seriously, this kid sounds like he must have no friends or social life. I mean I personally think that Twitter is one of the most ridiculous concepts imaginable and a site with horrible stability, but it has its place. I mean it is helping in places like Iran and Eastern Asia. Twitter is one thing, but a 15 year old who is trashing video game consoles saying they are replacing cell phones? How long has this kid had a cell phone to begin with that the game consoles are replacing them? None the less I don't think a game console is going to replace a cell phone, most people like the idea of the phone evolving from a backpack, I don't foresee that coming back. Of course this child only being 15 wouldn't remember that cell phones were that big at one point. This kid needs to go out and play with some kids his age and enjoy his childhood instead of hanging with Morgan Stanley analyst. If he doesn't by the time he is 40 it will be like the movie Falling Down.
  • Oh, God, the Grammar (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Quothz (683368) on Monday July 13, @08:57AM (#28675573) Journal
    I can't believe an editor let that report pass. "Near impossible", ">4", "1/3 of teenagers have... 50% having ... 40% with", and "Some teenagers make purchases on the internet but this is only used by a small percentage", to name a few. There's punctuation errors, capitalization mistakes, poor abbreviation, and subject-verb agreement problems. One sentence, leading a paragraph, begins with a numeral. This report is an unreadable mess; the poor phraseology and numerous mistakes draw attention from whatever point the little moron is trying to make.
      • by Quothz (683368) on Monday July 13, @12:19PM (#28679055) Journal

        just like to bitch, or trying to make yourself seem better by putting other people down.

        Oh, one of those, probably. That sounds like me.

        It's possible, if you don't mind a hypothetical, that I believe that standardization of language is one of the greatest boons to communication and education that the world has ever devised. The degeneration of language hurts a society's future generations, who will have difficulty comprehending what's written today. I (hypothetically) weep at the thought that our grandchildren will never appreciate the great writers of the past century, because corruption of language will make them as inaccessible as Chaucer or Shakespeare are today.

        An argument could also be made that I believe that well-structured and grammatical writing improve the comprehension of readers, and that the ability to write correctly is an important skill to anyone who wishes to communicate with the written word, a belief based on faith in my heart, plus the umpteen-thousand empirical studies that have shown this to be true. That is, poor communication communicates poorly, which in modern America seems to be a shockingly radical position to (hypothetically) take.

        Another man might even put forth the idea that heaping praise upon mediocrity is unwise.

        But the truth is that I'm just a bit of a dick about it.

  • Ooh, ooh!

    35 year old men don't play golf. I mean, I'm 35 and I know a few 35 year olds, and none of us play golf.

    Shower gratitude on me for my unique insight. Better sell all your shares in the golf industry.

  • my reports (Score:4, Funny)

    by Dragoon235 (1051296) on Monday July 13, @09:12AM (#28675793)
    dear /.

    I feel that it is important to report market information that I have assembled.
    Based on a survey of the people I'm living with, Ubuntu has a 25% market share of the laptop market.
    None of my friends own an iPhone, so I assure you that it is a dead market space, MMOs fall into the same category.
    On average, there is only one care for six people with driver's licenses.
    Wii has 100% of the market share.
    All teenage girls love anime and The Lion King.
    In terms of popularity, 4 out of 5 of my roommates wanted a joint memorial for Billy Mays and Michael Jackson.
    Everyone I know hates MySpace. I mean everyone. Its a really stupid facebook. The only people who use it are retarded. Surveys report that people are more willing to twitter than use MySpace, which is quite shocking considering previous reports.

    All of these reports are held to the highest standards of statistical accuracy and truthfulness. It has the statistical rigour usual to all of my reports.
    • by Shakrai (717556) on Monday July 13, @08:56AM (#28675557) Journal

      I love people that are so utterly self-absorbed and oblivious to their surroundings that they can do something this foolish. Wanna lay odds that when she gets her drivers license in a few years she'll be one of the asshats that flies down the road, cell phone in one hand, make-up in the other, paying absolutely no attention to the road? Then when she gets into an accident she'll say "I never saw it coming!".

      I'll get yelled at for saying this but it's a pity she didn't earn herself a Darwin award. Now she's going to breed and pass on her stupidity to the next generation.

      • by smellsofbikes (890263) on Monday July 13, @12:55PM (#28679727) Journal
        >I love people that are so utterly self-absorbed and oblivious to their surroundings that they can do something this foolish.

        Ya know, I'm not sure it's being self-absorbed that's the problem. I know people who just can't multitask, like the old saw about people who can't walk and chew gum at the same time. My grandfather and aunt are/were like this: they just couldn't do two things at once. It wasn't for lack of smarts, either: he was a self-taught organic chemist with a dozen patents, some quite successful, and she's a graphic designer in high demand. But they were/are what you'd call oblivious unless you know them, and then you realize that some people seem to be mentally incapable of rapid task switching even after (in granddad's case) 90 years of trying. My aunt stopped using her cellphone after months of running into doors while trying to talk and walk at the same time, and on the rare occasions where she drives, she says at the beginning of the drive "I cannot talk while I'm driving or I'm likely to have a crash, so please don't talk." She's learned this from experience (and a couple of wrecked cars) after 40 years of trying. Maybe the woman who fell into the manhole just hasn't figured this out about herself yet.
        For that matter, I've seen half a dozen guys walk straight into walls or trip over chairs because they were too busy checking out my gf's butt to watch where they were going. Smart people can realize when their priorities have shifted and they're about to do something stupid, but even smart people need some experience to develop the skill to notice when they're about to do something stupid.
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