High Depreciation May Slow Electric Car Acceptance 354
Hugh Pickens writes "The New York Times reports that as cars like the Nissan LEAF and Coda Sedan become available, one question that may give electric car buyers cold feet is bubbling to the surface: How much will these next-gen vehicles be worth a few years down the road? According to a report from the UK's Glass Guide, unless manufacturers properly address customer concerns regarding battery life and performance, the new breed of electric vehicles (EV) soon to be launched will have residual values well below those of rival gasoline and diesel models, with a typical electric vehicle retaining only 10% of its value after five years of ownership, compared to gas and diesel-fueled counterparts retaining 25% of their value in that time period. According to Andy Carroll, managing director at Glass's, the alarming rate of depreciation is a function of customer recognition that the typical EV battery will have a useful life of up to eight years and will cost thousands of dollars to replace. Carroll added that manufacturers could address this problem by leasing the battery to users."
Funny, leasing is what they're doing with the Leaf (Score:3, Informative)
Seems like the article is a bit late...
Re:I get only an advertisement from the NYT link (Score:3, Informative)
In the UK motor trade Glass Guide is known as the black book and is the motor traders bible when it comes to pricing, so it might be made up fud but it is made up fud that has a very real effect on the price of used vehicles.
not as bad as it sounds (Score:3, Informative)
OK, so the car was more expensive originally; and, after a number of years its value drops to, or just below, the price range of a similarly aged gas powered car... So, it appears to have lost more value.
Early adopters of any technology often find this is the case. They spend more to reap the benefit earlier. The price will normallize after some time and those that follow will reap the benefit of the experience gained in manufacturing and using the initial versions.
Let also look back at cars in the past for a moment: How many of you remember 40 years ago? (or were driving 10 year old cars 25-30 years ago?) The engines weren't as reliable. It wasn't uncommon to have to re-power a car (replace / rebuild the engine) after 6 or 7 years. We've gotten used to having cars with engines that will last 10-15 years. We've been spoiled, really. This technology will catch up, in terms of longevity and utility, eventually.
Re:People are just now realizing this? (Score:2, Informative)
While I've only been driving my overpriced American shit for 14 years, the 194,000 miles I've driven in it hasn't given me any indication of it disintegrating anytime soon, despite frequent trips to the dragstrip, autocross course, and several road courses. Also, it didn't seem to affect the longevity despite the fact I ported the heads, installed a new camshaft and other parts that added over 100 HP more than 150,000 miles ago.
I'm pretty sure every car sold in the US since the Yugo will last more than 15 years, unless you do something really stupid with it.
Re:10% in 5 years? (Score:3, Informative)
Other sources (http://green.autoblog.com/2010/05/27/details-on-nissan-leaf-battery-pack-including-how-recharging-sp/ [autoblog.com]) claim an estimated 70% - 80% capacity left after 10 years.
But let's assume for a moment that the "battery dead after 8 years" is correct. Then it still looks like a good deal. On top of that, advanced battery technology as used in the Leaf is still getting cheaper, as more vendors get into the business and competition drives down prices. So you may get a pretty good deal on replacement batteries a few years from now.
Re:I get only an advertisement from the NYT link (Score:3, Informative)
My first car lasted me 10 years (1996 saturn) and the only two things I had to do to it was a new fly wheel and a new alternator. The total of which set me back about $400. Now there was standard maintenance (tires, breaks, battery, oil changes, etc..), but I had not transmission problems. Gave it to a family member for their 16th birthday and it's still on the road and other than a new set up spark plugs & wires, they've not done anything to it.
My last car (Chevy Malibu) I got 6 years out of it before it was totaled by ice falling off a roof, and I put on new tires and brakes in the 5 years, 90k miles I had the car. I had no other mechanical problems with it.
My Dad has a 97 Astro van that's at 145k and has had a new fuel pump ($500) and alternator ($300) in 13 years plus standard maintenance. He also has a 2004 Impala that has 100k miles and so far, had to have an instrument board replaced, total cost $200. He's put a new set of tires on the car, but has yet to replace the breaks. And before the 96 Astro he had an 86 Astro for about 15 years. Outside of routine maintenance, the only thing he ever put on it was a new starter. Not sure what that cost, but it wasn't more than $200.
Overall, we've not had a lot of things "go wrong" with cars and trucks. We tend to drive them 10 years/150k miles and have pretty much bought all GM products. Buying a car that you know is going to have a maintenance cost roughly the same as a transmission replacement in 8 years just doesn't look that attractive to me. And I'n the market after a year of dealing with insurance companies and lawyers about my previous car.
I guess if you're the type that trades every 3 years, then maybe, but damn you loose a lot money doing that. And if I was looking at used cars, knowing there was going to be a repair bill within x years that could be equal to what I paid for the vehicle doesn't make it particularly attractive either.
I've been looking at new cars since my settlement and probably going to buy a Sabaru Legacy. Hell, they get 30MPG highway now and are all wheel drive and that's with the automatic (which gets better milage than the manuals now thanks to CVT).
I do have to say I like the Chevy Volt's approach with the gas/electric system. Makes a lot of sense, but $40k is a little out of my price range at the moment plus I'll let someone else be the beta tester for those.
Or just get a German diesel (Score:1, Informative)
My family and I went from Toronto to Ottawa in a 2010 Audi A3 TDI with an average fuel efficiency of 5.5 l / 100km with 2 adults, 2 kids, and a trunk full of luggage and Quebec beer. That's slightly better than a freakin' Yaris' posted numbers with FAR better performance and more cush per squarce inch.
And a solid resale value 5 years down the road with no need to dick around with batteries.
Further, electric cars are only as clean as the power grid you're attached to. If you're in Hillbilly, USA, that electricity is likely generated by inefficient, emission-spewing coal. At which point, a gas-fuelled SUV might be a /better/ choice than the electric. The equation changes, of course, if you're in a region with ample wind, hydro or, possibly, nuclear.
Re:Electric isn't ready... (Score:2, Informative)
semi trucks have brakes. And the drivers tend to be better trained at driving than the car driver.
Note: europe is FULL of slow low power cars. They dont have this problem you imagine.
Hidden costs and economy (Score:2, Informative)
You aren't looking at all the costs of driving petroleum fueled vehicles. Trillion bucks to be heavy in the middle east for decades, health costs especially in major urban areas with smog pollution, and now the gulf oil disaster.
I would actually look forward to much cheaper electric vehicles being on the car lots used, that's the only way I could get one anyway. I'd love to have a small electric truck for use around here, and I only need a 30 mile range to go to town and back, I wouldn't need a 100-300 mile range. And for just driving around the farm, I could keep a smaller cheaper set of batts charged with my solar PV panels.
As to range in general, the generator trailer range extender eliminates that "need" for the 100-300 mile range on pure electric. You could rent one of those for the occasional long trip. These companies could offer a base model with just the 30 - 50 mile range, with more batteries and/or the generator trailer as options. That would reduce the price considerably to just get into an electric ride of some sort.
Okay, look up the price of a 10 year old Prius (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Electric isn't ready... (Score:2, Informative)
Re:How much? (Score:5, Informative)
The Prius's pack started out at 6k and the same doomsday prophets shouted that theyr value would collapse come resale time. Fast forward to today. The battery pack is now just over $2k and the Prius holds value better than all but a few cars.
Nah. (Score:3, Informative)
With the Prius (and other hybrids) that's taken care of for you. Even when the battery's capacity graphic says the battery is near empty (and the ICE starts up automatically to recharge it), the battery actually has more than half of its capacity remaining. Most of the capacity of the Prius battery is never used, just for this reason. No matter the habits of the previous owner, the battery is never deeply discharged (or otherwise abused -- the software controlling the state of charge of the battery is incredibly sophisticated).