AI Predicts Manhole Explosions In New York City 213
reillymj writes "Every so often, a 300-pound manhole cover blows sky high in Gotham, followed sometimes by a column of flame and smoke. (There are a few hundred 'manhole incidents' per year in the city, not all of them this dramatic.) Researchers from Columbia University applied machine learning algorithms to Con Edison's warren of aging electrical wires and sewage access points around Manhattan. As the system learns where dangerous mixtures of sewer gas and decrepit wiring are likely to come in contact, it makes forecasts about trouble spots, including where the next explosion may occur. The team has just completed rankings for manholes in Brooklyn and the Bronx, and plans to return to Manhattan's grid, armed with the most recent inspection and repair data." The research was published in the July issue of Machine Learning.
Rio de Janeiro (Score:1, Interesting)
They need something like this here in Rio de Janeiro. There have been several exploding electrical manholes around here too.
Re:Gotham? I thought the article was about NY? (Score:5, Interesting)
The skyline and culture for Gotham always seemed more like New York City. wikipedia also identifies Gotham City with NYC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotham_City#Origin_of_name [wikipedia.org]
Metropolis, meanwhile, appeared Midwestern in the early comics, although wikipedia claims that they haven't been consistent: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis_(comics) [wikipedia.org]
Poo Energy (Score:3, Interesting)
Couldn't they harness all that energy that blows up manhole covers into some kind of renewable energy? Feed the sewer gas back into natural gas lines, attach pistons to manhole covers, etc
Re:WTF? (Score:1, Interesting)
New Yorkers aren't as scared of terrorists as all the red-state housewives and average joe plumbers who believe Osama bin Laden to be 1,000 feet tall and breathe nuclear fire.
Re:death by manhole cover? (Score:5, Interesting)
A friend of mine who does some professional photography takes some really cool pictures while "draining". There are a lot of neat places down there!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cshepherdson/ [flickr.com]
These things can explode spectacularly... (Score:5, Interesting)
One time I witnessed one of these explosions in Boston, and let me tell you, it's quite impressive! It was a hot August day and I was standing about 20 ft away from it, when out of nowhere, BOOMBOOMBOOM! There were actually a series of explosions that knocked the manhole cover a foot or two in the air each time, and each time the cover came back down perfectly on the hole, as if nothing ever happened. There was a college kid who was even closer to it than I was. He was just a few feet away when it happened and I could see that it shook him up pretty badly.
I asked the workman who was there a short time later what exactly had happened and he said a transformer had blown.
Re:Rio de Janeiro (Score:1, Interesting)
We did not have such things in Berlin (or any other city i lived in) as electrical wiring and gas pipes are physical placed in different locations beneath the street. Further there has to be a minimal distance between gas and electricity and the electric wiring must be isolated in a way that there is no leakage. If so they replace the wiring/gas pipes. However, I expect that this will go downhill since they privatized such infrastructure lately.
Algorithm looks like failure (Score:4, Interesting)
Con Edison blind-tested the team’s model by withholding information on a recent set of fires and explosions. The top 2 percent of manholes ranked as vulnerable by the algorithm included 11 percent of the manholes that had recently had a fire or explosion, Rudin notes.
According to the article, there are about 51,000 manholes in New York. A few hundred explosions occur every year. (Lets say 300). So the algorithm listed (51,000*.02)=1020 manholes that were high risk. Out of that 1020 manholes, they were correct on (300*.11)=33 manholes.
In my industry, we would call this a complete failure. Even the weather forecaster would call this a failure. It reminds me of Demolition Man
Chief George Earle: We can just wait for another code to go red. And when Phoenix performs another Murder Death Kill, we'll know exactly where to pounce.
John Spartan: [sarcastic] Great plan.
Chief George Earle: [not realising the sarcasm] Thank you.
Erwin: He likes your plan, Chief!
Re:In all seriousness (Score:3, Interesting)
As I don't live in NYC, I just checked out their [coned.com] website for the first site. The "about us" section describes how they make $13 billion revenue.. And still, the site I'm presented with looks like this: http://j.imagehost.org/view/0334/Untitled_8 [imagehost.org] in my browser. Checking out the sources it seems this masterpiece is coded in classic ASP.
Now don't get me wrong, but why does a company with such a high profile present the world such a peace of misery? I mean, this is one of the most important interfaces they have to the world, and it's garbage. Should I assume that all their services have this quality, especially those which I don't directly see? Just asking..