Just One Out of 16 Hybrids Pays Back In Gas Savings 762
thecarchik writes with this snippet from GreenCarReports:
"One of the criticisms of hybrid cars has historically been that there's no payback, especially given the cheap gasoline prices in the US. The extra money you spend on a hybrid isn't returned in gas savings, say critics. Well, that may be true, especially when regular gasoline is averaging $2.77 a gallon this week. But as we often point out, most people don't buy hybrids for payback — they buy them to make a statement about wanting to drive green. Nevertheless, a Canadian study has now looked at the question of hybrid payback in a country whose gasoline is more expensive than ours (roughly $3.70 per gallon this week), with surprising results. The British Columbia Automobile Association projected the fuel costs of 16 hybrids over five years against their purchase price and financing fees. In a study released in late July, only a single one of the 16 hybrids cost less to buy and run than its gasoline counterpart."
The one car that would save you money, according the study, is the Mercedes S400 Hybrid sedan — and it will only cost you $105,000.
I didn't buy one for the payback (Score:5, Interesting)
From one of the linked articles, "Translation: The kinds of people who buy Toyota Prius hybrids in the U.S. may indulge themselves in private, where no one else will see them, but want to be seen in public with less luxurious, greener products to bolster their reputation."
I call bullshit. I didn't do it to bolster my reputation. I put my money where my mouth is and instead of getting on a soapbox and telling everyone to go out and buy a hybrid, I actually bought one.
I don't care that I probably spent more than I'll recoup from the fuel-efficiency. For me, it wasn't about that.
Re:Short Study Timeframe (Score:2, Interesting)
I would use a corolla to compare it myself.
Other conclusions (Score:5, Interesting)
What's interesting, to me at least, is how small the "hybrid loss" actually is for many of the popular models. The extra cost to buy and operate a Toyota Prius, over the Toyota Matrix XR, is apparently $1,718 over 5 years, or $343/year. This isn't that much to a person who cares about the environment. Consider, for instance, that this will apparently reduct CO2 emissions by 1242 kg/year. This means that it "costs" the environmentally-conscious consumer about 28 cents per kg of CO2 reduced. Doesn't sound too bad.
Also worth noting is that the vehicle costs were apparently based on MSRP. Thus any incentive program (e.g. government rebates) only have to be on the order of a few thousand dollars to make the hybrid cheaper overall. I would, personally, prefer it if the hybrid technology were cheaper no matter what (so that there was no excuse not to buy one), but the fact that the extra cost is so small makes it fairly reasonable to subsidize it in the name of environmental protection. (Or, conversely, taxing more-polluting vehicles or energy sources for the externality of environmental damage they cause.)
Again, I think it's well-known that it's generally cheaper to do environmental damage, and more costly to protect the environment. But I see these numbers as being very encouraging: the technology is now at a point where the extra cost of hybrid technology can be made quite small. (For instance it's only $290 extra over 5-years to own and operate the Honda Civic Hybrid vs. the Honda Civic EX. That shows how close we are to hybrid vehicles being cost competitive with conventional vehicles, even without government rebates.)
Re:Only true if you ignore the externalities (Score:5, Interesting)
...there are benefits gained by riding on even a semi-regular basis (ie, fitness).
Serious benefits. For all the biker-putty on the roads, the mortality stats I've seen show that even casual bikers have longer life expectancies, since the odds of getting roadkilled are so much lower than the odds of being killed by heart disease.
For the average person, gas savings is important (Score:3, Interesting)
There are definitely folks out there who can afford to buy a hybrid without concern of gas savings, but most people are going to buy a vehicle that is within their financial means so the upfront cost has to face the reality of cost of ownership. I was one of those people who put enough miles on their car to warrant a hybrid. I did the math and it was cheaper to buy a brand new Prius than continue driving my paid off SUV, due to ongoing maintenance and fuel costs. Several years later, I opted to trade the Prius in for a "clean diesel" that delivers nearly the same MPG but with more comfort and space than the Prius offered. It costs me a bit more overall but due to my changing needs and cramped legroom I think its worth it. Environmentally speaking, I like having a vehicle that pollutes less, but I can't afford not to drive something as fuel efficient which is ultimately why I bought one.
Diesel? (Score:1, Interesting)
Why oh why can't they do studies on how long it takes to pay back on a Diesel engine car?
I did my reading, and Diesel engine cars are about as green as regular cars in their manufacturing process, and far greener based on the increased mileage and almost Nil emissions (with the new Bluetec engines).
So, I bought a new VW Golf TDI, because I wanted a new car (although I seriously thought about the older TDI as well). In the right conditions (45mph, 75 degrees out, highway with no stops) I've seen it do as much as 56mpg. HOWEVER, mostly it averages closer to 37-40 between city/highway with the way I drive.
Europe really has realized this, and has had lots of great Diesel options for years. The US really needs to get on board! Diesels are greener with comparable gas mileage to hybrids, and the gas generally isn't that much more expensive.
Re:This fits my own calculations (Score:3, Interesting)
I'm willing to bet this doesn't take into consideration the higher resale value of hybrid's. That's one other factor to consider.
Re:Only true if you ignore the externalities (Score:4, Interesting)
The hybrids only cost more if you ignore the externalities.
I'm used to the modern digital world, where everything is available for free and you only pay for something if you want to reward the folks whom made it.
My buying choice was to either:
1) Send $3000 to the Japanese, whom will spend the profit on formulaic movies about women and tentacles
-or-
2) Send $1000 to the Saudis, whom will bankroll their citizens into flying aircraft into our tall buildings.
I'm much happier sending a little more to the Japanese than a little less to the Saudis.
Hybirds are half-assed. (Score:5, Interesting)
I'm not in the least interested in buying a hybrid. I want an all-electric car. I want a normal-size car that can do 80 mph uphill, and has at least 300 miles of range at typical highway speeds. Get the price under 50g, and I'll buy it. With any luck it'd become a family heirloom. The only dealings I want with petroleum are for lubrication and manufacture of the plastic parts.
I'd love to buy a Tesla, but it's just too small, and let's face it, a wee bit on the expensive side.
Too bad EEStor turned out to be a bust... ultracapacitors could solve this whole battery mess pretty easily if they just had adequate energy capacities. Everyone else is in the "discovery" phase, which usually translates to "impractical." Not that manipulating a (very) high voltage energy source for use in low voltage, high current motors is all that easy anyway. That whole (E = CVV/2) thing is a cast-iron bitch on a number of fronts.
Oh, well.
Re:UK gasoline (petrol) currently approx $6.60 (Score:4, Interesting)
The pundits in the financial press attribute much of the recent run-up in prices to the falling value of the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies such as the Euro. While this may account for some of the upward price pressure, much of the gains are due to hedging of currency risk by large firms such as Morgan Stanley -the same bastards that were responsible for bidding the price of crude to record highs in the summer of 2008 while that squint Bush was telling the world it was the Chinese and their demand that was responsible for the high prices.
Re:That's how the market is supposed to work. (Score:5, Interesting)
Let's look at their numbers [bcaa.com] for the Prius comparison. Competitor: Toyota Matrix XR
Matrix cost listed: $21,800 CAD
Prius cost listed: $27,500 CAD
Matrix total 5-year cost listed: $38,606 CAD
Prius total 5-year cost listed: $40,324 CAD
Assumptions: Total cost includes purchase price, financing, and fuel costs at $1.17/l ($4.43/gal CAD), less rebates. Does not include maintenance or insurance costs. Annual driving distance is 20,000 km (12,427 mi).
Stats: I couldn't find a 2010 "Matrix XR". There's a "Matrix XRS". Heck, let's just assume that they mean the most efficient 2010 Matrix, which is a manual base model that gets 26/32mpg. The 2010 Prius gets 51/48mpg.
Fuel consumption calculations: Given these numbers, the Matrix should consume 429 gallons per year at $1,898 for five years for a total of $9,492. The Prius should consume 251 gallons per year at $1,112/yr for five years for a total of $5,561. The difference, then, is $3,931 CAD. I don't know what "rebates" or "financing" costs they're assuming, but their combination of rebates and financing seems to be approximately a net zero, so the rebate value must be low and the financing costs high.
To quote Billy Mays, however: "But wait, there's more!"
Unlike in this study, a vehicle doesn't just vanish into thin air after five years. The average age of a vehicle on the road in the US today is over 9.5 years and rising. Hence, the projected lifespan until the vehicle hits the scrapheap is about 20 years. So the total fuel difference is actually $15,724 CAD. Some last longer, some shorter. And even if your argument is, "well, I'll just sell my car after five years" -- that leaves two options:
1) The low cost of gas the Prius provides will be reflected in the resale price; OR
2) The buyer of a new Prius may get a bum deal, but the buyer of a used Prius gets a correspondingly *excellent* deal.
Re:Hybirds are half-assed. (Score:3, Interesting)
I too want an affordable electric car that gets decent speed and distance. Although, living in Canada where it's cold at least 4 months of the year, I'm thinking a plug-in hybrid may be a better solution so heating comes from burning fuel, instead of burning coal at the power plant.
Re:Flaws in comparisons: Unique cars & trim le (Score:3, Interesting)
Yeah, it was funny, when the 2004 Prius first came out, I thought "Man, that thing's just a design ripoff from the Honda Insight, made bigger!"
How when I see the new Insight, I think just the opposite "Man, that thing's such a ripoff from the Prius, only smaller."
If the original Insight had a disablable passenger-side airbag, I would have bought one in 2006 (its last year.) But I had a small child at the time, so no airbags allowed in front of the carseat. Now that she's older, I'm tempted to get a used one.
(Doesn't it feel funny to call 45 MPG "terrible"? I find it funny when I catch myself feeling "guilty" for getting "only" 45 MPG sometimes.)
And I wouldn't say the Prius has "great EV only range", it's about 2 miles at best. (As soon as my warranty expires, I'll be converting mine to a plug-in to get about 10 miles.)
Wait, what? (Score:3, Interesting)
It says the Ford Escape Hybrid costs $35k?
My wife bought her brand new 2007 Ford Escape Hybrid in Dec. 2006 for $24K. The non-hybrid model was about $20K. She averages about 32 MPG in it, about 12 MPG over the conventional model.
At 22,000 miles/year, she saves about $1144/year at $2.77/gal. Plus we got the $1500 tax break. The "hybrid premium" was paid off sometime in late 2008. She now saves over $1100/year over the non-hybrid.
I want to see some methodology on this study.
Re:Diesel? (Score:3, Interesting)
Diesel is NOT greener. The only reason it's thought of as greener is because of the lower carbon (CO2) emissions due to lower consumption. That part is greener. Diesel does however produce NOx, which reacts with water and produces Nitric Acid, which is very bad for the environment and hurts the respiratory organs. Diesel engines produce 24 times the NOx of petrol engines.
If you want to go "green" and still drive a car the best option at the moment is a CNG-car. CNG is Compressed Natural Gas. You can get it as a fossil fuel which is bad for the environment, but better than ANY of the other alternatives, or you can produce bio-methane from human waste which reduces the CO2 emissions with about 95%. A recent paper by scientists at Lund University [www.lu.se] pushes that up to 120%.
It's easy to convert a "normal" car to a CNG-car, although the ones built as CNG-cars have better efficiency.
These are the "greenest" cars you can get at the moment. Hybrids are nice, but they're not really green, and Diesel I'd classify as "red" (or whatever the opposite of green is).
Re:That's how the market is supposed to work. (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:That's how the market is supposed to work. (Score:3, Interesting)
Current hybrids don't make economic sense except in extreme or lucky circumstances, or when your net benefit is based on government hand-outs.
Re:Hybirds are half-assed. (Score:3, Interesting)
It's cold here in NE Montana too, we see -40f pretty much every winter. The thing about burning anything at the power plant, even petroleum, is that it is actually far more efficient than burning anything in the car. And of course, once the car is electric, the grid itself can change to anything - nuclear, solar, hydro, whatever - in any combination - and the car is oblivious. So you get a double benefit: First, you gain efficiency, and you also get flexibility at the plant level.
Re:That's how the market is supposed to work. (Score:2, Interesting)
8-12 dollars a gallon?
How the devil do you come up with that number?
A barrel of Light Sweet Crude (55 gallons) will get you about 40-47 gallons of gasoline if thats what you are refining it for. A barrel of Light Sweet Crude closed today at 81.41 for a September delivery.
The price of gasoline today for a US average is 2.78, so the gasoline alone from that barrel is worth 116 dollars.
Other countries heavily subsidize fuel, Saudi Arabia is selling gas at $.45 a gallon right now.
Re:UK gasoline (petrol) currently approx $6.60 (Score:2, Interesting)
When I visited Ireland in 1999, my uncle told me that it was very difficult to find a car with an engine displacement of more than 2.0L, on account of the way road taxes were levied. To call a 3L engine "small displacement" just highlights the disparity between the US and Europe in terms of fuel prices/usage. I recognize your point; a mid-90's Buick LeSabre (not even one of the biggest ones) had a 3.8L V6; displacements close to 2.5L are a lot smaller than they used to be here, but really, they're still bigger than they need to be.
That said, I saw a billboard yesterday advertising a new car model: apparently, Ford is bringing the Fiesta (back) to the US.
Re:That's how the market is supposed to work. (Score:3, Interesting)
I drive a Matrix XR, so I was surprised to hear you say it didn't exist.
I said "I couldn't find", not "it doesn't exist". See Toyota's own site [toyota.com], for example.
And I get much better than 26/32 mpg.
Sorry, but we don't play "And I get..." in this thread. ;) We use standardized drive cycles for a reason.
As such, if you used the XRS numbers in your comparison, that would guarantee it's completely wrong.
Did you miss where I said I chose the most efficient Matrix model listed? Which obviously was not an XRS. It was the one just listed as "Matrix".
Re:Misleading summary (Score:3, Interesting)
Sir,
You also forgot to factor in the cost of money. I.e., if you banked the $5000 instead, you'd have that much more money at the end of the car ownership period. In 10 years at 7%, that $5000 becomes almost $10,000 (depending on how you compound the interest.)
And then, you also forgot to factor in the cost of externalities. How much is your reduced production of CO2 going to save in reduced damage to the environment?
--PM
Re:That's how the market is supposed to work. (Score:2, Interesting)
Indeed. Any time the government doesn't heavily tax something, it amounts to a subsidy.
Does anybody see this kind of lunatic mindset the way I do and get a little worked up?
Re:Not an accident (Score:3, Interesting)