Ray Ozzie's Departing Memo a Warning To Microsoft 345
itwbennett writes "In a parting memo to Microsoft, Ray Ozzie urges Microsoft to 'really, truly, seriously start thinking beyond the PC,' writes blogger Chris Nurney. Nurney suspects that 'Ozzie has been making these points internally for some time,' and that the memo 'could be his way of putting it in the public record.' Some of the memo's juicy bits: 'It's important that all of us do precisely what our competitors and customers will ultimately do: close our eyes and form a realistic picture of what a post-PC world might actually look like, if it were to ever truly occur. ... Today's PCs, phones & pads are just the very beginning; we'll see decades to come of incredible innovation from which will emerge all sorts of "connected companions" that we'll wear, we'll carry, we'll use on our desks & walls and the environment all around us.'"
Re:MS is doing that (Score:5, Interesting)
Do you remember.. Windows Mobile 6? Pocket PC? Yeah, I developed for those platforms, and I can tell you that Microsoft seriously didn't give a shit. I doubt they have changed much since then. When your core product is for PCs, it's hard changing your company's thinking.
Re:MS is doing that (Score:3, Interesting)
The phrase "survival of the fittest" actually came from a mistake that was made when Darwin's "On the Origin of Species" was translated into German. The correct phrase, and concept, is "Survival of the most adaptable".
It's just as true in the business world as it is in nature.
Re:MS is doing that (Score:5, Interesting)
Frankly I am starting to wonder if Microsoft is going to be the next Curtis Wright.
In 1954 just about every airliner on the planet used their engines. The president of the company said that they could keep making that one engine until the end of time and people would still be buying them.
By 1960 they where no longer a major producer of aircraft engines.
Today they make valves for hydraulic systems.
Re:MS is doing that (Score:3, Interesting)
I think someone has missed Windows Phone 7 and the tablets Microsoft will be releasing shortly.
Windows Phone is already out in Europe. We'll see how well it fares. Personally, I'm not impressed by the many restrictions (more than in iPhone!), but then I'm a geek. If I were buying a phone as a present for my mom, I'd look into it alongside iPhone.
HP Slate 500 (running Windows 7) is also out. It's rather telling that they've put it into business laptops and PCs [hp.com] section of their website, though. The reviews so far have not been all that positive, from what I've seen - it certainly does some things great (like e.g. running Outlook or other Windows software, or pen digitizer mode for handwritten notes), but as a "consumption gadget" a la iPad, it falls short - the main issue seems to be that it's not as "silky smooth" [eweek.com] (i.e. responsive) as Apple devices. No surprise there considering the OS. Overall I'd buy one as opposed to iPad, if I weren't waiting for Notion Ink Adam already...
Just bring me something that Courier was supposed to be. I want it, I need it! Combine that with environment like Windows where everyone can freely develop their software and include things like XNA and Xbox Live and you have a wonderful product on your hands!
Somehow I suspect that, were tablets with specialized OS to come out, they'd be more aligned with Windows Phone - with respect to software restrictions as well. And did you see the list of "can't" on WP?
Re:MS is doing that (Score:3, Interesting)
I own a Zune (I bought the Zune80 when it came out).
The Zune software was fantastic (on the PC). The Zune UI ran rings around the iPod (on the Device). The sound quality was better.
Zune deserved better. It was superior to the iPod Classic line in every way. I've seen (but do not own) the Zune HD, and it's good as well, though it pales in comparison to the iPod Touch because of the ecosystem and apps available.
I'm actively looking forward to being able to ditch my iPhone for a Windows Phone in a year or two. I hope Microsoft doesn't manage to screw it all up.
That's a memo? (Score:5, Interesting)
That "memo" runs more than 3500 words. If that counts as a typical memo over at Microsoft, I think they've got another problem beyond the one Ozzie's term paper discusses.
The great fallacy (Score:4, Interesting)
The great fallacy nowadays is that everything should be designed for the Apple consumer.
Re:MS is doing that (Score:5, Interesting)
It's not the same, though. The point that Ray Ozzie is trying to make is that, at some point, Microsoft needs to stop following the industry and become the one the industry follows again.
Windows Phone 7 is great, but Apple was the one who popularized smart phones as we currently know them. Tablets are coming to the market with Microsoft software on them, but Apple was the one who popularized tablets. For years, before the iPod changed Apple, Apple made ends meet because they had a fervent fan base and catered to them. It didn't hurt Apple that they were always playing catch up because they had total control over their environment. They made money on software and hardware. Microsoft is in the unique position of being a primarily software based company. If sales of Windows plummet, they don't have that kind of closed system like Apple has to keep them chugging along. Additionally, Microsoft is such a huge company at this point, they have to be an industry innovator again or face crumbling apart.
I agree that Microsoft is making waves to change their image. They're the "cool" company (in the US) when it comes to videogame consoles and no one EVER saw that coming. Zune has its diehards (and rightfully so, the Zune HD is terrific hardware). Windows Phone 7 might get its following, that's yet to be seen. And Windows 7 is just a pleasure to use, IMO. But the PC market is shrinking at a rapid pace and the only other market that MS is #1 in right now is videogame consoles...and that's not the cash cow that Windows and Office are.
Microsoft is literally sleeping on the chance to expand the xbox brand and make it the only box you need in your house for entertainment. Xbox SHOULD be the industry leader in iptv right now, but they're not. And that's a crying shame...because our other two players are Google (who's going to eventually throw something free on the table and leave it to a hundred vendors to shape it into a usable product) or Sony (who's going to try to tie everything into purchases and season passes, not true iptv) and I think that Microsoft, as a company that's not tied to advertisement (Google) or owns huge assets of media (Sony) could shape this market in a way that's good for consumers and runs off of hardware that's already existing. It would also secure Microsoft's spot as console leader for generations to come.
Microsoft is sleeping on all sorts of opportunities now. Ray Ozzie, stating this as an insider, is really a doom and gloom statement from an investors standpoint.
Re:MS is doing that (Score:3, Interesting)
Okay, you missed it. One more try, then.
Apple is not a "computer company" the way Microsoft is a "Windows" company.
In that light, Apple is an "iTunes company". Period, the end.
State (Score:5, Interesting)
As wireless internet access becomes even more robust, the first company that can deliver a solution to keep a user's "state" consistent across all of their devices is going to be the winner. It's a problem that the industry has been working on since the dark days of syncing your contacts up through a USB1 connection to a palm pilot. I imagine it's why Apple is building their enormous data center - they are about to make manual data management a thing of the past. A slick interface could yield some badass results for stepping your data to a network volume if it's unusually large, and then streaming backups during off-peak hours to iBackup or whatever you want to call it. Otherwise, every time you start to edit a doc, the filesystem is intelligently streaming the backup directly to their data center. If your laptop gets nicked, then you log in to your me.com account, destroy the encrypted volume if they connect it to the internet, and grab another laptop and a few hours later you are back up and running.
Computers are going to disappear - your information will be always available from any device with an internet connection. You'll just have a variety of interfaces to it, from your phone, to your media viewer (iPad) to your netbook (I mean MacBook Air, Steve!) and your desktop. They will all sync intelligently, and store larger, non-streamable information locally on SSD drives. Only video creators will be forced to continue managing physical volumes until 4g goes nationwide and uncapped.
It's a good idea, and a fucking bummer that Apple is the only company doing it.
Majority != geeks (Score:3, Interesting)
I've already purchased my last Apple, Nintendo and Sony products for my lifetime.
You'll find a lot of geeks who agree with you, but the majority does not. The majority "can live with the restrictions without really owning anything". And the majority spends more money on products than the geek subculture: less per person but far more people. That's why video games targeted at the majority come out on consoles, not PCs. How should we as geeks try to convince the public that consoles' restrictions aren't worth the loss of an end user's right to do what he wants with what he owns?
Re:MS is doing that (Score:2, Interesting)
Okay the make control systems. But that company was a merger of The Curtiss company as in Glen Curtiss and the Wright Engine company an in the Wright Brothers.
The company that made the P-40 fighter plane and the Engines that powered a good percentage of US aircraft in WWII including but not limited too the B-17 Flying Fortress, the B-25, and the B-29!. After the war they produced the engine for long range aircraft.
Until the Jet came along.
They failed to make the leap and are now a relatively small company compared to their main rival.
They did survive but I would say that they went from being a major player to being a supplier.
Re:MS is doing that (Score:4, Interesting)
Granted, one's quality of life shouldn't depend on winning concert tickets. But the point stands: Windows Mobile phones (and I've got a pile of them on my shelf) sucked as phones. Even on the speedy-for-its-time HTC Advantage, the phone keyboard lagged. Punch a key, wait, key is highlighted and tone is heard. Repeat. IIRC, every WinMo phone I had did this to some extent.
I don't care if MSFT promises a pony with every Windows Phone 7, crap like that made me swear off WinMo for good.
Re:MS is doing that (Score:1, Interesting)
copy-paste is coming, and is present in developer handsets so even citing that is a pathetic strawman argument. multi-tasking is an issue for all non-android phones, the iPhone fakes it, but even then its not really multitasking non-native apps.
as for interesting innovation, the way WP7 manages contacts and integrates social media is several steps ahead of existing platforms. there has also been a lot of development put into "context" as in web searches are prioritized toward what you'd be looking for from a phone. Also the UI is far mor user friendly than any existing smartphone i've used.
Re:State (Score:3, Interesting)
That's the whole point of ChromeOS (but not limited, it can be used in any OS), combined with Google Docs, Gmail, Google Calendar, Picasa Web (photos and videos) and Google Reader.
Personally, it's not my cup of tea (I've moved to my email and photo hosting to my home server recently), but saying Apple is the only one pushing for a web based OS is ridiculous.
Re:MS is doing that (Score:4, Interesting)
WP7 about 2-3 years behind the competition. It's only saving grace is it's different and the OS upgrades are supplied by Microsoft.
Courier was concept art, just an idea. The fact it was seen to be cool and got killed just shows how badly run Microsoft are. They're almost as bad as car companies who draw up amazing looking concept cars only to have them made ugly by consulting the great unwashed on what they want.
Forget the imminent Microsoft tablets, they're just PCs in a small form factor running an OS with a small veneer of touch usability. Instant on? nope, fast bootup? nope, long standby time? nope. They've been around since 2001 and there's been as many sold as Apple has sold iPads (which were only released this year).
iPad works because all of the applications it runs have been designed for a touch screen OS. There is no windows or icons to drag, no start menu, no filemanager, no double tapping the screen, no reset button and best of all, no silly plastic stylus to lose.
If you want a touch screen computer, at least buy one that an OS designed for touch screen. Even the former head of the tablet project at Microsoft couldn't get people on side for the project, it's why there's no touch screen version of Office.
HP and Microsoft shares fell following their tablet announcement, which shows how (un)impressive it was:
http://www.pcworld.com/article/186172/why_the_microsofthp_tablet_is_a_big_disappointment.html [pcworld.com]
There's only so many times you can rehash the same old rubbish.
To take a Fark favorite (Score:5, Interesting)
"LOL WUT?" The smartphone market has run its course? You are kidding, right? Smart phones are going to continue to sell strong as ever. While they may not grow a ton, people have to stop pretending like growth is all that matters. It smacks of wet behind the ears stock investors who have no sense of scale or history.
Smart phones are going to be a huge market until, well, someone figures out something to replace the phone. I haven't even heard of any ideas along those lines much less products. So I think it is safe to say the market has decades, or more, of life.
Also you might notice that in terms of OS the battle has not been won, nor may it ever be won. Symbian didn't win (it was by far the largest), BlackBerry OS didn't win, iOS hasn't won, Android hasn't won. The fight is on going, and it may well go on forever. Given the locked down nature of phones and carriers, there may not be the push for a single platform like there was with PCs. There people wanted software portability, but you don't get that on phones anyhow.
Also you might note that MS is and was in the mobile market. Windows CE smart phones have been around for a long time and while not huge weren't trivial either. This is a (needed) revamp/update, not a new entrance in to a market.
It's Google you should worry about (Score:3, Interesting)
Computers are going to disappear - your information will be always available from any device with an internet connection ... It's a good idea, and a fucking bummer that Apple is the only company doing it.
I absolutely agree with most of what you say here -- the company that does transparent "cloud" sync/storage best will win the game. Unlike you, my take is that Apple is actually way behind in this area, while Google has a convincing, if not insurmountable lead. This isn't about Android, though you can see it a little bit in the way that Android devices instantly populate themselves via the 'net using only a Google ID. By contrast an Apple iDevice won't even turn on until you plug them into a desktop via USB. You can also see it in the piece of crap that is Apple's current .Mac offering ($99/year for, basically, stuff you can get for free elsewhere, with minimal device integration --- yes, I pay for it and I'm ashamed).
But mostly you don't see Google's advantage, because it manifests primarily in the unglamorous, invisible stuff like cloud infrastructure. Google has an order of magnitude more server capacity [intac.net] than most competitors, and absolutely crushes Apple in terms of the user data it holds, not to mention its (still nascent, but growing) customer base for services like Mail, Docs, Maps and Apps.
Apple may show up to the party one of these days --- maybe they'll get 'net-based activation by iPhone 5. But what people fail to understand is that moving from a device business to a cloud business is a not a natural transition, and so far Apple has demonstrated no real instinct for it. To give a silly analogy: at the moment Apple is building the grandest, prettiest castles in town, while Google is buying up all the roads and sewers. One day I fear that Apple will realize how badly they need that infrastructure in order to keep building, and Google will be the only one who can provide it.
Compare and contrast with J. Allard (Score:4, Interesting)
Compare and contrast [gizmodo.com] Ray Ozzie's farewell with that of another recent high-level departure, J. Allard. These men, at the heart of technology for all their adult lives, were in positions of the highest influence at Microsoft. They're obviously both brilliant, and not needing to cash a paycheck. They see a change coming - a huge change - and they want to be a part of it. They don't see that happening while they work in Redmond. So they go. But on the way out they look back at the poor souls they leave behind and they tell them in their farewell: "You too can be a part of this new world. You just have to think different." The door swings shut with a click and the obvious conclusion remains unsaid: "but you won't."