USPS Losing Battle Against the E-mail Age 734
An anonymous reader writes "An article in the NY Times explains how the United States Postal Service is in dire financial straits, and will need emergency action from Congress to forestall a shutdown later this year. Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe said simply, 'If Congress doesn't act, we will default.' Labor agreements prohibiting layoffs are preventing one avenue for reducing costs, and laws forbidding postage rates from surpassing inflation rates keep income down. On top of that, the proliferation of e-mail and online bill-paying services have contributed to a 22% reduction in snail-mail volume since 2006. They're currently hoping for legislation that would relax their economic requirements and considering an end to Saturday delivery."
Re:Do your part! Snail-mail your comments! (Score:5, Interesting)
I joined Postcrossing [postcrossing.com] last month. I liked the idea of sending random people postcards, and in return receiving cards from other random people.
I send cards to a child in Finland, a girl in Germany, a student in Taiwan, a recent-graduate lawyer in the Netherlands and a woman in Siberia. So far, only the first two have received my cards, and I've not received one in return yet -- but it's only been two or three days. (I live in the UK, so it's no surprise that the cards to Finland and Germany arrived quickly.)
I like travelling and meeting people from other countries, so hopefully I'll like reading the cards I receive too.
Lousy service (Score:5, Interesting)
They've got a delivery route to every single household in America every single day, and yet they can't seem to track a package through their system or guarantee a delivery day. Even their "Next Day" service is "We'll do our best, but it's not really a guarantee, and even then there are some places where we charge you the "next day" rate but we know it will be two days."
Fedex and UPS do essentially a semi-custom route each day, and they drivers are pretty well taken care of (though they have long hours certain times of the year), and they can track and guarantee your delivery dates, for essentially the same price as USPS. USPS needs to be a value option, or a better/more reliable service. Right now they're neither, and they cannot compete.
Re:Battle? (Score:2, Interesting)
FedEx and UPS seem to have pretty much fully automated the processing and routing of parcels pretty much end-to-end.
They are in default (Score:1, Interesting)
There is no such thing as: "If Congress doesn't act we will default", this means they are bankrupt, that's all there is to it.
At the risk of being moderated down further [slashdot.org] I must say anyway that this does not surprise me at the least, I've said that on multiple occasions that this is what is coming to the USPS [slashdot.org]
Quote:
When somebody says that government can do things efficiently, and they use the postal office as an example, they should really go back to that premise and realize, that the US post office is out of cash - it's selling 'forever stamps' today, and assuming it doesn't just dissolve over the next few years, it won't be able to make any money at that time and it will be in a worse fiscal shape than it is today, because the stamps sold today are basically protection against the 10% (current level) of monetary inflation that US Fed and Treasury are incurring on US population. Today the postal office cannot function already and they sell the forever stamps, tomorrow, they'll have to raise the prices but people will use those forever stamps and the postal office will either have to default on that stamp or dissolve, or there will be another bail out, and people use that as one of 'better' examples of government 'efficiency'.
Then people say things back to me that [slashdot.org] make no sense [slashdot.org] about how USPS is not or used to not have problems. Well yes, as long as there is a way to print more money the gov't will keep subsidizing these money losing programs, like military and wars, USPS, SS, Medicare, bank bail outs, stimulus programs, anything that is subsidized by government borrowing, printing and spending can go on for a while until the currency is destroyed.
The S&P downgrade was not just downgrading US debt risk, it was downgrading US CURRENCY.
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Everything goes back to the question of fiscal responsibility [slashdot.org], and there is no such thing in USA at all anymore.
Do you know what a USD is? Ben Bernanke does not. He believes a dollar is what it buys, though in USA the dollar has precise meaning (certain weight in gold or silver).
USD is a federal reserve note. Do you know what a "note" means? Note means an IOU. It's a promise note to give you gold or silver for your currency. But since 40 years ago when Nixon decided to default on the dollar (they did it a few times in history of USA, defaulted I mean), the IOU stopped being a promise note. It's not a promise by the Federal reserve bank to give you anything for that piece of paper/cotton/computer record.
Since the Federal reserve promises to give you nothing, that IOU is worthless, that is what S&P downgraded. They should have downgraded it to JUNK, because that's what US federal reserve note promises to you - nothing.
Because USD is a note, which now gives you nothing, it's worth 0, and this means that anything that the Fed buys is actually STOLEN by the Federal reserve. That's right, any asset they buy (and gov't "economists" are now suggesting that the Fed just buys out any assets - houses, businesses, etc), this means that Fed is completely openly STEALING those assets.
The US T-bills that are bought by the Fed, what do you think this does? This means that nobody else wants them, so Fed monetizes the debt and thus inflating the value of whatever USD denominated assets you have.
The USPS is suffering because it does not generate any revenue that is real. It's subsidized, and it was selling so called "forever stamps", and people were buying them, thinking that they would be able to USE those forever stamps in the future, thus protecting themselves from inflation, because stamps
Re:Lousy service (Score:2, Interesting)
Fedex and UPS cost more. I get packages in 2 days from NJ and NY regularly, and when I order something, even UPS and FedEx often deliver ONLY to the local post office, and USPS does the last bit -- it's how a lot of online companies save money. The rates can't be beat. I NEVER had trouble tracking a package, and have had trouble with FedEx and UPS ALL THE TIME, who will update as "delivered" days before I get my expensive package.
Re:Yep. Pretty standard. (Score:5, Interesting)
Fedex labor cost is 32%, USPS is 80%.
There are so many things that Fedex isn't required to do that the USPS is that it doesn't seem useful to look at just labor costs as a percentage of operating expenses. Fedex isn't required by law to deliver packages six days a week. Fedex isn't required by law to maintain an office in every dippy little town in the US. Fedex isn't required by law to investigate cases of mail fraud, they leave that the the USPS. Fedex doesn't hold packages and mail when people are away from their residences. Fedex isn't required by law to fully fund 30 years of pensions and medical expense for retirees in a ten year time span as the USPS is. The USPS actually makes a profit on its operations. There are estimates [apwu.org] that the USPS has been overcharged $75 billion in contributions to the Civil Service Retirement System pension fund. If it weren't for a 2006 law requiring it to over fund it's retiree pension and medical expenses it likely wouldn't be in the financial mess it's in.
Re:Battle? (Score:4, Interesting)
This would be the case were Canada's postal service not working reasonably well, despite Canada being as problematic in terms of population distribution.
The difference is that the Canadian postal service is allowed to run more or less autonomously, whereas the USPS is subject to constant congressional meddling. It's the American paradox: decry government involvement and authority in general, but allow four or five hundred cooks in the kitchen at all times.
Re:A postal service is simply too important. (Score:5, Interesting)
Has the US government done anything to actively sabotage the USPS?
Yes. Not every dollar of lobbying spent by UPS / DHL / fedex has been wasted.
From the fine article
"laws forbidding postage rates from surpassing inflation rates keep income down."
The inflation figures are fabricated by the govt to be unrealistically low, because so many outlays depend on it being low, in addition to incumbent reelection campaigns. Realistic inflation figures would mean realistic COLA increases for SS and frankly almost all other salary expenditures. However bad our deficit situation is now, being realistic about inflation would make it even worse. Therefore the numbers are doctored up until we can sorta afford the result. (Same thing with unemployment stats)
On top of that, the proliferation of e-mail and online bill-paying services have contributed to a 22% reduction in snail-mail volume since 2006.
Everyone I know either got email in the 90s, or frankly never will get email. For me it was '90, at least for a globally accessible internet address, if you're counting BBS / compuserve I guess I go back to '83. For my elderly mother in law it was 99. Everyone else in between. Other than children coming of age, I have never even heard of someone in my circle of friends / family / coworkers getting email after '99. It would be like blaming myspace for a sudden drop of TV viewership in 2011. Something that did start around the latter half of the 00s was the global economic second great depression, which is still going on. I would say economic local maximum peak year was probably about '07 and we've been in decline since then. That Might have a little to do with it. Abandoned homes don't get much mail. Unemployed people don't order many packages from Amazon (who mostly deliver with UPS around here, anyway). Business that close don't send bills or get payments. There are multiple "dead malls" in my area where seemingly permanently empty storefronts will never tx or rx mail. Ditto semi-abandoned industrial parks, etc.
Outside the article, think about it. UPS doesn't deliver on Saturdays, unless you pay some crazy rate, assuming they still offer that service. Does anyone care? Anyone? I'm told that UPS doesn't even attempt to deliver every day, in some rural areas. Like the driver gets the "north route" on even days and the "south route" on odd days and that's just how it goes. Does anyone really care? If my mailbox never got anything on Saturday, and twice the junk every other day, I really wouldn't care. Much like when they switched to "alternate week recyclable pickup", I gave a big "meh".
Some ideas (Score:4, Interesting)
Currently you can get shipping materials for free https://shop.usps.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?langId=-1&storeId=10052&catalogId=10001&categoryId=10000036&parent_category_rn=10000002&top_category=10000002 [usps.com] which is ludicrous. They need to stop giving away shipping materials and charge for it like everyone else does. Countless times I have known of folks to hoard the materials, and use them for shipping using other carriers, or for personal storage. This needs to stop NOW.
Raise the rates on the bulk mail, even if it requires congressional approval to do so. Bulk mail companies already pay way less than the general public to send their spam direct to your box, and at times they receive hefty discounts as well ( http://www.dmnews.com/usps-provides-more-details-on-summer-sale/article/131151/ [dmnews.com] ) which should be stopped. The First Class postage we pay subsidizes junk mail. It is high time they pay their own way. The ridiculous threat that bulk mail companies will stop using USPS if rates for them are increased is pure bullshit. Call their bluff, and raise their rates, for they can afford it. Do you really think they will start using FedEx or UPS to deliver their junk? The US mail is a government monopoly they must use, due to the cheapness of it when compared to other options. A friend of mine who works in the sorting of US mail told me that bulk mail has steadily increased every year.
Additionally, the Postal Regulatory Commission believes that bulk mailers do not pay their fair share, and that their rates should be increased roughly 22% overall. An audit found that the current rates bulk mailers pay run afoul of the 2006 Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act http://www.prc.gov/PRC-DOCS/UploadedDocuments/ACD%202010_1697.pdf [prc.gov] , which is hotly contested by the lobbyists in the bulk mail industry. The current Postmaster General caters to the whims of the bulk mail industry, and needs to be gone.
Create a Do Not Mail registry, which works similar to the Do Not Call registry. Currently I have no way to stop all the loose-leaf flyers/advertisements from infiltrating my mailbox. The sorting and delivery of this bulk-junk takes up a considerable amount of time, including mine. The junk mail problem alone has me flirting with the idea of eliminating my mailbox entirely, for I can pay all my bills, and do all my banking electronically now. Granted, this may cost money initially, but I can dream, can't I?
Granted, there are many problems leading to the current crisis, and I have only touched the tip of the issue. We have to start somewhere.
Re:Battle? (Score:4, Interesting)
But the USPS is constitutionally mandated. It'll be interesting to see how they deal with that. My expectation is that they'll ignore it, and let the system collapse, but I'd only give that about a 60% probability, perhaps slightly lower.
Re:Do your part! Snail-mail your comments! (Score:5, Interesting)
But let's get real, such an effort even if successful may fund one postal worker. The USPS is one of the biggest employers out there.
I think they should do several measures:
-Alternating day service. Route 1 gets Mo-We-Fr delivery, and Route 2 gets Tu-Th-Sa delivery. Mail carriers cut in 1/2. Express Mail already is handled by a different special carrier (I'm told) so that's unaffected.
-Cut down all underperforming post offices that are within a certain radius of other, more successful, USPS locations. I'm close to such a one, that is in a shack of a location, and within 7 minutes drive of it's main branch. It has one guy working there, less than 75 PO Boxes, half of them unrented (the next most rural place I know has at least 300 boxes, 90% rented). USPS has been trying to close it down for years but the union is resisting, even if the worker is taken to the main branch. Hard to understand.
-Open up automated kiosks to serve as advanced versions of blue mailboxes in malls/supermarkets/what_have_you. Emulate redbox, except for packages. Try a trial run. (All the USPS advertising is for flat rate boxes, they WANT the package business. Might as well try something novel.)
-Back in WW2, Post Office has Vmail. It's mail on special sized letters, shrunk to microfiche, and reprinted. Save many cargo ships for other purposes - they used to be pioneers. They should have an email to mail service - afterall laywers and a ton of businesses need to send out certified mail all the time. But why should they have to print it, run someplace to mail it, and keep track of slips of "certified" this and that? Send it to the USPS server, let a central place print it out, and mail automatically, for postage plus a small fee. The software keeps track of what was sent.
Just a few ideas. The USPS has to change and fast. It has to reduce their workforce. It has to do a lot of things. But ceasing to exist should not be an options, lot of online and offline commerce depends on them and will do so until perfect replicas of objects can simply be generated, like in Star Trek, just like computers can copy data files. Then they can call it quits.
Re:It's true (Score:3, Interesting)
No, actually it's a great example of how well government-owned corporations can work. Despite all the problems Congress gives them, they still manage to have very reliable mail service to every address in the country for a very cheap price. If they didn't have our stupid Congress blocking every improvement they try to make, there's no telling how great they could be.
The problem is that our Federal government is so utterly corrupt that they're hamstringed in their operations. They could save a ton of money by cutting Saturday (or better yet Wednesday) service, but Congress won't allow it. Basically Congress is setting them up to fail. Another poster pointed out that Congress passed "the Postal Act of 2006 which requires USPS to pre-fund 80% of future retiree health-care obligations by 2016. This costs USPS 5.5 billion $ per year. If not for this, USPS would have shown a 600 Million $ profit over the last 4 years." Since none of their competitors (or any other company) has this burden, it sure appears that this is the result of lobbying by USPS competitors. What do you call that? I call that corruption. The government of this country is even more corrupt than the government of Mexico.