How Killing the Internet Helped Revolutionaries

An anonymous reader writes "In a widely circulated American Political Science Association conference paper, Yale scholar Navid Hassanpour argues that shutting down the internet made things difficult for sustaining a centralized revolutionary movement in Egypt. But, he adds, the shutdown actually encouraged the development of smaller revolutionary uprisings at local levels where the face-to-face interaction between activists was more intense and the mobilization of inactive lukewarm dissidents was easier. In other words, closing down the internet made the revolution more diffuse and more difficult for the authorities to contain." As long as we're on the subject, reader lecheiron points out news of research into predicting revolutions by feeding millions of news articles into a supercomputer and using word analysis to chart national sentiment. So far it's pretty good at predicting things that have already happened, but we should probably wait until it finds something new before contacting Hari Seldon.

Not the Internet as much as people being angey

[Meshach]

I think that the Internet is just a means to an end. The people were angry and ready to revolt. Lots of revolutions (Soviet Union dismantling, American Revolution...) happened without the Internet present. When people are angry enough word gets out.

Re:Just give it a little thought

[Machtyn]

Agreed. While our freedoms have not been completely stripped, making us the frog in the slowly boiling water, we have been contented with our current freedoms and, more especially, our conveniences to be able to do anything about anything. Half of us vote, sometimes. Fewer than that know why they are voting for whom they vote. Fewer than that are actually properly informed about the candidates for whom they are voting for and against.

Still, there is a slow momentum of dissatisfaction with the US government and the current state of social affairs. It is being shown in various ways - the rise of the TEA party. Even though Pelosi, et al, may think this is not a grass roots movement, it is. The back and forth issue with Prop 8 in California. The rise in CCW licenses and survivalist purchases (food storage and other things). Roaming, violent flash mobs. The growing popularity of libertarianism. All these things say to me that there is a movement afoot.

None of the sides have been able to grab the populace's attention long enough to make a sustained effort to gain control and move this ship in one direction or another. The Dems made strides in 2006 because of massive dissatisfaction with Bush and his policies. Obama was elected on this wave. He was such an atrociously bad leader the Dems were thrown out in 2010 and Obama will likely (hopefully) be thrown out in 2012. But who's to say that even if the Repubs gain any control in the House, that the tide won't shift back to the Dems in 2014? It seems this pendulum is swinging farther in either direction instead of slowing down to a centrist point so that our leaders can agree on some things and make our society progress.

Re:Predicting the future that you can affect

[matunos]

And once oppressive governments try to use such predictions to suppress revolutions, the people will learn to adapt and alter their public speech. For instance, after decades of government control of the media, Egyptians were able to use social networking to vent their frustrations. As governments try to suppress/infiltrate social networking, people will turn to other strategies.

Re:Just give it a little thought

[Hatta]

The government DID turn off my recreation, and is more than happy to incarcerate me for years on end if I just try to have a little fun. From my point of view, there's very little difference between America banning Cannabis and Iran banning western music/TV.