The Risk of a Meltdown In the Cloud 154
zrbyte writes "A growing number of complexity theorists are beginning to recognize some potential problems with cloud computing. The growing consensus is that bizarre and unpredictable behavior often emerges in systems made up of 'networks of networks,' such as a business using the computational resources of a cloud provider. Bryan Ford at Yale University in New Haven says the full risks of the migration to the cloud have yet to be properly explored. He points out that complex systems can fail in many unexpected ways, and he outlines various simple scenarios in which a cloud could come unstuck."
It has to happen (Score:5, Interesting)
At some point, there is going to be a massive failure. Someone big is going to lose *all* of their data. I still don't trust virtualization despite it being years old. It's still nascent in the grand scheme.
Someone wake me when they invent the holodeck.
Re:Why not stick to real risks? (Score:5, Interesting)
Problem is that half the people buying cloud services thing their system is imune to any new problem, and might not implement the same failback procedures they would have in a traditional way.
We are in many way seeing a new generation of IT people and managers with far less understanding of the fragility of their system then the previus generation, emerge onto the scene.
Serious problem, but not a surprise (Score:5, Interesting)
Complex systems almost always exhibit surprising behavior. Cloud computing is no exception, and it is new in addition. This leads to a high level of risk of such events emerging without warning. Of course, people with a stake in the business side will never admit the risk. For examples of this happening in other fields, look at TEPCO, BP, RSA, ... All save and risk-free. Until things blow up.
Put simple: "The Cloud - where other peoples servers can crash yours."
Also appropriate:
"A distributed system is one in which I cannot get something done because a machine I've never heard of is down." --Leslie Lamport
This holds even more for the cloud.
Re:Why not stick to real risks? (Score:5, Interesting)
In the cloud, you have no idea who else is on the same hardware as you and what their usage patterns are. You cannot be careful yourself anymore, you have to trust your service-provider. The past shows that unless you have huge contractual penalties in place, that is a losing game.
bandwidth will be bottle neck (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:It has to happen (Score:5, Interesting)
While I agree with you, a little perspective.
I've seen systems, verified backups, and duplicate backups simply fall over. Every best practice was followed, backups were taken regularly, and the backups had been verified by Industry Leading Backup Software Everyone Still Uses (arg). But the system and data on the backups could not be restored.
It eventually got fixed through some virtualized gyrations, but it took the better part of a week for the company's top engineer to figure it out.
Shit happens.
Re:It has to happen (Score:3, Interesting)
I remember reading article a couple of years ago where the feds siezed everything at a hosting provider because *one* of their customers had been naughty. This naturally drove several unrelated businesses into the ground because they couldn't get to their data.