Experts Warn Of Possible North Korean Nuclear Test 101
After the recent failure of North Korea's rocket launch test, experts are warning that the country's leadership will likely try to save face by following it up with a nuclear weapons test. According to CBS, "The rocket launch had been hailed as a moment of national pride, but it disintegrated over the Yellow Sea, earning it embarrassment as well as condemnation from a host of nations that deemed it a covert test of missile technology. In a rare move for Pyongyang, the government admitted that the rocket did not deliver a satellite, but it also pressed ahead with grandiose propaganda in praise of the ruling Kim family." The Guardian adds, "Speculation is mounting that the North will attempt to claw back some of its credibility with a third nuclear test. Recent satellite images from the site used for previous nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 suggested plans for another underground explosion were already in place before the Unha-3 rocket broke apart and splashed into the Yellow Sea on Friday morning."
Re:Maybe it was shot down! (Score:5, Insightful)
The technology has been around since the 80's, so why not?
Why waste the power and confirm that you have the ability to do so on a target that you already knew was going to be crap and fall apart or otherwise not make orbit? IN any case, Japan actually did announce beforehand that they were seriously considering shooting down the rocket/missile if it passed over Japanese territory. And, from what I understand, the other 2 previous launches by North Korea were always followed by a nuclear test ( I remember reading this, but I honestly do not remember where).
Re:Sigh (Score:5, Insightful)
CNN had a fairly coherent opinion piece on the question of why no one wants to piss of North Korea any further despite obvious provocation (this rocket launch isn't the first, nor even the worst provocation they've performed). Basically the guy's point boiled down to a three tier deterrent used by North Korea's government to make them immune from serious attack:
1) They're fricken nuts. No one knows exactly how nuts they are, and no one particularly wants to find out. Even by the standards of repressive totalitarian regimes, the North Koreans are in a class by themselves. Most of South Korea, and all of Seoul is in range of North Korean artillery. It's widely accepted that unless China were willing to engage in open war in support of the North (unlikely), they'd be pounded into dog meat in short order by combined US, South Korean, and (probably) Japanese troops. That won't stop them from shelling Seoul, possibly with chemical weapons, and maybe hitting Tokyo with some medium range missiles before they go down. They're willing to let their own people starve to death in mass numbers to keep themselves in power, they sure aren't going to be concerned about "enemy" civilians.
2) No one wants to deal with the repercussions. Assuming we (for a value of "we" intended to mean the US and some portion of our Asian allies) go in, wipe the floor with the North Korean Army, and they don't manage to do to terribly much damage to Seoul in the process... then we have North Korea? Yay? The country is more or less without any infrastructure. A good portion of the population is starving. They're mostly brainwashed. The only thing that's had any resources at all dedicated to it in the last 50 years is the military we just presumably smashed... The quagmire's in Iraq and Afghanistan will seem like positive fun times in comparison. As the author put is (I'm paraphrasing), "You're looking at a generation worth of South Korean time and treasure just to get the place to where it could be functional". Nobody wants to deal with that.
3) They have nukes. See also (1) & (2). No one knows if they're crazy enough to use the nukes as a last ditch "take the world down with us" strategy, and no one has any idea how many there are or where. When the inevitable chaos of (2) starts, any nukes not flung at Seoul as a last spit in the eye have a high potential to become rogue. Not a pretty picture.
I can't seem to find the article now, which is a bit annoying, but it seems to be pretty well thought out. The typical reason for doing nothing about North Korea is China, but honestly at this point I don't think even the Chinese really like them. They'd just rather have a broke and desperate North on their border than a unified and strong Korea.
Re:Sigh (Score:4, Insightful)
What Tech Site? (Score:0, Insightful)
Why is there a flurry of general interest news on a technical news web site?
Wake up man! This is not the old Slashdot family. They broke up, left town and went their separate ways for good. Taco himself moved out long ago and sold himself out to "Big Media Inc."
Some typical newbie know-nothings moved into the hollow empty old character-filled mansion and wanted to flip it for big bucks (after they saw what Ari the Greek did), so they proceeded to tear it to the ground and rebuild it into this shiny new cookie-cutter me-too site for the Internet 4.0 (tm) generation.
Look, Slashdot jumped the whole school of sharks, died, was flushed down the toilet bowl and plugged the pipes ages ago. Didn't you hear the massive flushing and plunging noises?
That's why I (5-digit UID) NEVER log in anymore - who the fuck in their right mind would want to be recognized here?
The real Slashdot died long ago This is just a web site with tons of "eyeballs" for advertisers. Mark my words: it will be flipped, destroyed, drop dead or be bought by the "twatthead.com-of-the-month " within the next 3 years.
I mean, come on - post to tittheads or fuckfacebook? You mean you can't smell the piles of horse-shit showing up everywhere?
Flag as Inappropriate? You've GOT to be kidding. The REAL Slashdot never removed a single post except once when they had their asses sued by the space-ship nutcase morons. The modding was less Draconian back then, too.
I used to have /. open in a window for 10-12 hours/day. Now I come here for maybe 3 minutes a week, just to scan the headlines and drop a snide anon remark or two. And I am seriously thinking of dropping it completely.
Time marches on ...
Re:Maybe it was shot down! (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Sigh (Score:5, Insightful)
Keep in mind that you're talking about the country with universal conscription that can last up to 10 years - about 20% of the entire adult male population is in the military. Every male citizen would have served there, and most would have kids serving. So there's no clear dividing boundary between army and civilians.