Is Windows 8 Microsoft's Riskiest Bet? 362
Microsoft has rolled out many new products and many revisions of old products over the past couple of decades. The releases haven't always gone well, as in the case of Windows Vista, but Redmond has managed to ride out the rough patches. However, Windows 8 is an even more dramatic revamp of one of Microsoft's top products than Vista was. At the same time, they're piling their tablet hopes onto Windows 8 as well. Does this make it Microsoft's riskiest bet ever?
"Thus the problem facing Microsoft: How to convince Windows users to rush out and buy an upgrade of a perfectly good (and relatively new, at least by Windows standards) operating system? Compounding the issue is the new Windows 8 design, with a Start screen that discards the traditional desktop interface in favor of a bunch of colorful tiles linked to applications. That revamp is supposed to make Windows 8 more touch-screen friendly, and thus optimized for tablet use; but it could turn off consumers who don’t like change, not to mention businesses that shudder at the idea of retraining their workers in new ways of doing things. ... if Surface and the other Windows 8 tablets fail to make an impact on the market, then Microsoft will have lost a major chance at seizing the new paradigm, which is centered on mobility and the cloud. Meanwhile, that same paradigm shift is drifting the center of peoples’ computing lives from desktops and laptops to smartphones and tablets—which puts Windows’ traditional center of strength at long-term risk.
Well is relative (Score:4, Insightful)
The releases haven't always gone well, as in the case of Windows Vista, but Redmond has managed to ride out the rough patches.
It's worth noting that Windows Vista still to this day has an install base of 12% of computers, more than every version of Mac OS combined. It was still gaining market share until October 2009, a little after Windows 7 was released. Although it wasn't gaining traction as fast as MS would have liked, they sold hundreds of millions of copies thanks to the fact that it's the defacto install on all new machines, and the same will be true for Windows 8.
Even a botched release for Microsoft by all accounts is considered a good day.
Maybe a calculated risk. (Score:5, Insightful)
I think it is an educated risk, Windows 7 is well done and robust, and still has a future, much like XP lived all those years. So they are throwing Win 8 to see what happens.
Yep (Score:5, Insightful)
It's risky as hell. Not for their PC business, really. Home users will get it because it's what comes on a PC. Corporate users will ignore it just like they ignored Vista.
The real danger is that by changing so much in the desktop version, users will get confused and annoyed. That kind of reaction taints an entire brand, exactly like how "Vista" became a four-letter word in the PC industry. Nobody wanted to touch it. If Windows 8 has a negative reaction among users due to how much they screwed up the UI formerly known as Metro, that won't stay contained.
It'll spread to the tablets and phones too. People will see a Windows tablet and immediately think of their last, negative experience with their home PC. Then they'll go buy an iPad.
That's the real danger. This might be a great tablet OS. But it's a shitty desktop OS, and you won't get people buying Windows tablets if they hate the Windows desktop.
Re:Well is relative (Score:5, Insightful)
I recall the angst surrounding Windows 95. Pretty much everybody had the same idea - it's the end of Microsoft as we know it. On top of that, the world was ending, Carter was a failure, the Russians were winning and we're all gonna die.
Nothing to see here, move along.
Re:Maybe a calculated risk. (Score:5, Insightful)
You mean like they killed XP?
Windows 8 has no traction with their corporate users. 7 isn't going anywhere.
Re:Yep (Score:4, Insightful)
That's the real danger. This might be a great tablet OS. But it's a shitty desktop OS, and you won't get people buying Windows tablets if they hate the Windows desktop.
That's the risk, sure, but Microsoft is betting the opposite will happen. People aren't buying new desktops as often as they used to, and not many people upgrade Windows. They're banking on the fact that most people will be exposed to Windows 8 for the first time on a tablet, and they will enjoy the experience. At the rate Apple is selling tablets compared to how laptops and desktops are doing, this might not be a wild bet.
Then when they upgrade their laptop or desktop, metro will be something familiar. There is nothing inherently bad about metro for the majority of home users. It's simple to use, easy to install and find apps, easy to manage settings, secure through using the store and built in AV, compatible with peripherals, and connecting and manage many accounts (email, calendar, facebook, twitter) is baked into the OS, etc. It's really a consumer friendly OS, which is really the problem Slashdot has with it. Because it's not by default catering to the power user, it is automatically dismissed here (although this stance I still don't understand since it's capable of everything Windows 7 was).
Marketing (Score:5, Insightful)
It won't be a total flop. They'll market the hell out of it. Heck, the IE9 ads are so flashy, you'd think they reinvented the internet and if you don't use IE9, you're SOL.
If they can do that for IE, imaging what they can do with Win8.
Re:Other examples (Score:4, Insightful)
No, do they even have a lot of money tied up in Gnome 3?
No more or less than any other random show. Also pretty cheep to pull off.
Yes, and the 3rd movie didn't make its money back with the domestic box office thankfully killed the franchise and sparing us a 4th and 5th, or do you think they would have stopped at 3 no matter what?
Is Windows 8 risky? Yes, because if it fails it could stop the Office Upgrade Cycle that fuels all of the other losses that they incur. Without Office and Windows revenue they couldn't afford the 360 or the other random acquisitions that killed their profits over the last year. A few years of deep red could kill confidence in the Almighty MS and that would be the worst thing that could happen to them.
Paradigm shift? Not so much. (Score:5, Insightful)
The problem is that the paradigm isn't shifting to mobile. There's certainly a lot of mobile use being added, but in the corporate world especially the vast majority of computer use is conventional desktops. Tablets and phones don't work well for data entry, or for typing up long documents, or for doing complex spreadsheets with lots of math and data entry. And mobile doesn't seem very compelling when the employee's going to be at his desk anyway.
Home users on the other hand seem to be adding mobile instead of replacing their desktops. They already have a desktop, and they aren't inclined to throw it out while it's still working. I don't see my artist friends throwing out their big Cintiq graphics tablets for a 10" screen, I don't see college students throwing out keyboards and trying to type long papers on a smartphone, and I don't see my gamer friends abandoning their high-performance gaming machines for a 1GHz system with a 7" screen and no custom keyboard commands because there's no keyboard.
Mobile and tablets are just as likely to replace the desktop as the desktop PC is to replace the corporate mainframe.
Re:WIN8, the new ME? (Score:0, Insightful)
I'm using the RTM to write this. Once you find your way around and a few shortcuts - it totally rocks. Fired up Ubuntu in HyperV - no problem. The desktop works great - it's fast, fluid and once you get used to the context switches - super productive as a desktop and I like flipping over to the touch ui to read news, etc...b/c the apps are so beautiful to read / well designed. Very nice stuff. Unless you are stuck in the 80's and too old to learn something new - you are missing out.
Windows 7 is the fallback for a failed Windows 8 (Score:5, Insightful)
Vista was different. There was no heir apparent. Now there are two. That may be difference enough.
I presume you are referring to OS X and linux? Not going to happen. Even if Windows 8 was a colossal flop, Windows 7 still exists and people would simply use it instead just like they did with Vista. Microsoft has enough cash to survive Windows 8 failing horribly. The only real alternative that will be considered is Windows 7.
Apple's PC products are too expensive for businesses and Apple makes little effort to pursue business customers. Furthermore Apple doesn't make $250 PCs - they don't even try to compete at the low end of the market. Their products are nice but they don't try to be everything to everyone and they would go out of business if they tried. OS X is not a threat to Windows dominance.
As for linux, as much as I like it, linux has no reasonable prospects of becoming a desktop of choice for PCs anytime soon. It certainly isn't going to supplant Windows. It doesn't have access to certain key pieces of software as native applications. (No LibreOffice is not going to seriously challenge Microsoft Office in the near future unfortunately) It has very little support among OEMs and even a horrible failure of Windows 8 would not change that. Windows installed base is too strong to overcome on the PC platform as we know it. Where linux can and does beat Windows is on platforms where Microsoft has no installed base and software ecosystem to overcome. Mobile phones, tablets, servers, etc. Linux does just fine on these. Perhaps in time these other areas will provide enough to be a threat to Microsoft on PCs but I can't see it happening for at least another 10 years.
Re:It's Not A Bet... (Score:5, Insightful)
How do I use my PC's touch interface when I'm eating pizza? (shrug). To me Windows8 looks like a tablet interface. It doesn't belong on a desktop or laptop where people are trying to do actual work.
Re:It's Not A Bet... (Score:2, Insightful)
They're betting on the death of the PC, like Canonical:
http://slashdot.org/journal/285347/ms-and-canonical-bet-big-on-the-death-of-the-pc [slashdot.org]
Re:It's Not A Bet... (Score:4, Insightful)
Contrary to popular belief, the PC is not dead. Far from it, and those of us that will continue to use them would prefer that they be usable.
Re:Well is relative (Score:4, Insightful)
Will we? My arms won't magically stretch an extra couple of inches so I can reach the screen without stretching. It won't get any less tiring holding my arm horizontally either.
Touch is a solution to problems I simply don't have on the desktop. On a space limited device like a phone touch frees valuable surface for the display but I don't have a space problem on the desktop. Touch on a phone means I don't have to find somewhere to put down an input device where ever I am, my PC has a convenient desk for my keyboard/mouse/joystick/graphics pad.
Touch works where the benefits of a built in, no space used controller outweigh the downside of a pathetically inprecise pointing device with kludgy multitouch standing in for the many&precise degrees of freedom key+mouse offers.
Touch on the desktop is this years version of 3D on TV. Someone needs to sell it more than anyone needs to use it.
Re:Well is relative (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Maybe a calculated risk. (Score:4, Insightful)
Microsoft knows most medium to small businesses aren't going to be totally off XP for yet another several years. A lot of places have only begun to initiate their migration strategy to 7 this past year, and only because they can't buy an XP computer anymore. There's no way 8 is meant to replace 7 when 7 is still replacing XP.
Windows 8 is not for the enterprise. It's for the home. It's their way of testing the waters of a new interface paradigm. If enough home users like the new features of 8, they'll put it into the next version that is intended to replace 7 in the workplace. If users don't like it, they'll go a different route, with the desktop being the default interface in the next version.
Actually, they might intend to release several new versions of Windows before the enterprise replacement for 7. By then, they'll have figured out how to work the new strategy into the enterprise environment. At least, that's the idea anyway.
Re:It's Not A Bet... (Score:2, Insightful)
I do think they will be pushing many many many of their customers to the Mac.
Mac's still don't run most windows software, and are still far weaker at being managed centrally.
And what does switching to Mac actually accomplish? They save having to teach their users a new Windows 8 UI for having to teach them the OSX UI on more expensive hardware, with a bunch of application compatibility conflicts?
Its a complete joke.
Re:It's Not A Bet... (Score:5, Insightful)
For those that want an unbiased review of what to expect with Win 8 I've run DP, CP, and RP on nearly a half a dozen different machines here at the shop so I'd say that makes me at least qualified to give the review, along with watching my customers look lost and get frustrated on the win 8 CP I've had running on the shop floor, so here goes...
Do you ever actually tell your customers where to find the start menu? Because Microsoft does as much when you log in for the first time. Seriously, it takes one sentence to figure out the UI: "Move your mouse to any corner." Tell your customers that one sentence and you'll probably be met with a chorus of "oooooh, ok." With that one sentence you've now told the user how to access the start screen, how to share files and webpages, how to manage devices, how to switch apps, and how to manage settings.
Then you probably only run one app at a time and your screen is low res enough win 8 will look fine. Are you gonna buy this on a tablet or smartphone? then i'm sure it'll work fine there as well. Do you never ever install more than a half dozen programs? Then the new tile UI won't make you want to pull your hair out.
You've just described about 90% of computer users right here. My parents have a 23" 1080p display, and the first time they booted up the PC they forced it down to a lower resolution because it's more comfortable for them (I then opted for the higher resolution but higher DPI which they liked as well). They also have only about a dozen programs installed and ever use one or two at a time. Microsoft's own research shows as much, and the hundred million or so iPad users will probably agree as well.
Since the PC was introduced, most people have been completely afraid of it. People I know treat it as this fragile, delicate machine that if they press the wrong button, they'll completely destroy it, and as a result they don't get the full utility from their machine. Apple came around and introduced an easy to use, friendly, consistent, yet limited interface and normal people have been lauding it ever since. The limited aspect is all people on Slashdot are focusing on. Most users have always felt trapped by the classic windows UI, so this "limited" UI will probably be very liberating to them.
For everyone that doesn't fit that description? RUN
Why? Just install a classic shell or launcher and boot to desktop. You have the traditional UI with all the benefits Windows 8 offers. Windows 8, by most OS measures, is an excellent OS. It's fast. It's stable. It's secure. It's compatible. It's extensible. The only real point of contention for this community is one aspect of the user interface, which is completely optional and can be shoved aside if you so desire. Seriously, visit any Slashdot article even remotely pertaining to Windows 8 and every comment is about metro. No one is talking about how unstable it is. No one is talking about how it's a dog on old hardware. No one is talking about gaping security issues, or rampant driver instability, or application incompatibility as we were 6 years ago with Windows Vista. That's because Windows 8 is by all accounts a good OS in all of these respects. What we're left bitching about is probably the most personal and subjective element of the OS, the UI, and subsequently the most easily customized and replaced element as well.
Because the Tile UI quickly becomes a huge mess when you add programs so soon you end up with this multiple page PITA UI
The start screen is for you to customize, not an installer. You choose the color, choose the background, choose the tiles that are pinned, choose their size, choose how they are grouped, and choose whether they display live updates or not. That's a lot of options for customization. No longer is an installer supposed to install a launcher, an uninstaller, and docs + utilities to your start screen like they did with the start menu. That nons
It's not about Ballmer (Score:5, Insightful)
What Microsoft is doing is a little bit like the crying wolf story we all heard when we were told
A little kid cried wolf the first time, people rushed to help him, only to find there was no wolf
He cried wolf the second time, people rushed to help him, and again, no wolf
The third time, wolves came, and he yelled " WOLF ! WOLF !! ", but nobody came
Same thing with Microsoft
They could have produce good software - and they could, given the resources they have, the amount of very talented individuals they hired, and all that - and then sell them at fair prices
But no
They produce bloatwares, bugwares, and uselesswares
Times and times again users are forced to upgrade, upgrade, and then upgrade again, and each time, users have to part with their hard earn money just because if they do not upgrade, the software that they have bought is no longer supported, and can not read files in newer formats
The more Microsoft have put users through this mindless threadmill, the more users get disgusted, and the more they seek out alternatives that are available outside the Microsoft channels
For example:
The success of Open-Office (now Libre-Office) mainly was propelled by users who are disgusted with Microsoft, rather than those who genuinely awed by the power of Open/Libre-Office
And when it comes to Windows 8, users reaction to it is almost similar with what had happened to Gnome 3 - Users are utterly disgusted with the design, the usefulness, and the need to do the [groan] upgrade, again !!
Disclaimer:
Formerly I worked in Microsoft, many many eons ago
Comment removed (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:It's Not A Bet... (Score:4, Insightful)