The History of 'Correlation Does Not Imply Causation' 223
Dr Herbert West writes "The phrase 'correlation does not imply causation' goes back to 1880 (according to Google Books). However, use of the phrase took off in the 1990s and 2000s, and is becoming a quick way to short-circuit certain kinds of arguments. In the late 19th century, British statistician Karl Pearson introduced a powerful idea in math: that a relationship between two variables could be characterized according to its strength and expressed in numbers. An exciting concept, but it raised a new issue: how to interpret the data in a way that is helpful, rather than misleading. When we mistake correlation for causation, we find a cause that isn't there, which is a problem. However, as science grows more powerful and government more technocratic, the stakes of correlation — of counterfeit relationships and bogus findings — grow larger."
Re:Science grows more powerful? (Score:5, Informative)
> In what sense, exactly does science grow more powerful?
Space Stations. Tsunami warning systems. Earthquake warning systems. Cochlear implants. Big Dog. Spirit & Opportunity. Curiosity. Exoplanets. Higgs Boson.
The key word is "Correlation" (Score:5, Informative)
Correlation suggests only Correlation. It doesn't suggest causation, but as you noted, it does suggest areas for further investigation. The relationship may or may not turn out to be directly causal.
Re:Science grows more powerful? (Score:4, Informative)
We're the most scientific society the world has ever known.
Science holds more power today that at any point in history.
Now you can say, it is 'not true science' in as much as people can say Saudi Arabia or Iran is not 'true Islam'.
Some abstract notion of science or religion as *truth*.
But back in reality.
People who say science is their guide are at the most powerful in history. Regular people walk around saying 'we need independent scientific bodies to set healthcare, education policy. People readily accept the truth from scientific panels without much understanding of the actual science. Institutions of science are well funded by government as is the education systems (Relative to most other times in history).