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Windows XP Drops Below 40% Market Share While Windows 8 Passes 1% 310

Posted by timothy
from the meaningless-stats-to-ponder dept.
An anonymous reader writes "Just three months ago, we reported how Windows 7 had finally overtaken Windows XP in terms of market share. Now it's time to see how long it takes Windows 8 to succeed its predecessors. Between October to November, Windows XP fell to 39.82 percent while Windows 8 jumped to 1.09 percent."
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Windows XP Drops Below 40% Market Share While Windows 8 Passes 1%

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  • I Wonder? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by lister king of smeg (2481612) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:10AM (#42160059)

    I wonder if win8 will ever pass the xp market share

    • Re:I Wonder? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:14AM (#42160081)

      Oh boy, I sure can't wait to install an OS with a phone interface on my desktop/laptop, that makes so much sense!

      • Re:I Wonder? (Score:4, Informative)

        by kthreadd (1558445) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:17AM (#42160087)

        Oh boy, I sure can't wait to install an OS with a phone interface on my desktop/laptop, that makes so much sense!

        So use the desktop interface then. It's still there.

        • by RobertLTux (260313) <[robert] [at] [laurencemartin.org]> on Sunday December 02, 2012 @08:11AM (#42160521)

          but the problem is you get Metro going MEESA IMPORTANT LOOK AT MEES NOWZ!!! every five minutes or so

        • Re:I Wonder? (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Nyder (754090) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @09:03AM (#42160653) Journal

          Oh boy, I sure can't wait to install an OS with a phone interface on my desktop/laptop, that makes so much sense!

          So use the desktop interface then. It's still there.

          No point. I'll stick with Windows 7 myself. It works just great, no point in upgrading.

        • Re:I Wonder? (Score:5, Interesting)

          by rtfa-troll (1340807) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @09:39AM (#42160771)

          So use the desktop interface then. It's still there.

          You should have a look at this usability report [useit.com] which will help you understand it better. Basic summary: applications are written for either the desktop or the Metro interface. Where the apps are written for a particular interface you have to use that interface to use the app. There are some places where two different apps have the same name on both sides (for example "Internet Explorer" exists as both a Metro and a Desktop app) but you can see that they are separate from the way that they don't show the same Window list. Imagine the confusion which can happen if you use "Metro Internet Explorer" started from another metro app and then a desktop app also opens "Classic Internet Explorer".

          All this confusiion adds up to an interface which very much slows down and confuses the user.

        • by NibbleG (987871)
          There are many tools to make Win8 look and feel a lot like 7 here are links to them http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-33642_7-57496506-292/how-to-get-the-start-menu-back-in-windows-8/ [cnet.com] . I am sure many of us here are familiar with ninite.com , there is a installer for the Win8 Classic shell for even easier installation.
          • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

            by silviuc (676999)
            So basically you pay money to upgrade to Windows 8 and then you pay more money to get back the functionality of Windows 7 and to make windows 8 look like windows 7. Yup, that makes a whole lotta sense.
        • Its a huge pain to deal with Metro constantly lurking in the shadows, only to pounce on me when I least expect it.

          Incidentally, I still cant figure out where Im supposed to go to launch non-pinned non-metro apps. Hooray for useability!

        • by Waccoon (1186667)

          Just what I always wanted. An OS with a mandatory ad browser attached.

      • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:28AM (#42160121)

        That way there's no cognitive effort when switching between your phone and your desktop.

        I'm looking forward to the Microsoft car, which will have a bicycle seat and controls.

      • Re:I Wonder? (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:49AM (#42160177)

        Oh boy, I sure can't wait to install an OS with a phone interface on my desktop/laptop, that makes so much sense!

        Don't forget that it is a phone OS from a company that nobody buys phones from.

        CAPTCHA: horrible

      • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

        by H0p313ss (811249)

        Oh boy, I sure can't wait to install an OS with a phone interface on my desktop/laptop, that makes so much sense!

        That's what I said too. But as a technologist I need to keep my hand in with operating systems so I installed Win 8 on my mac through bootcamp.

        It's kind of rough around the edges, but it's still better than most Linux desktops, and better in many ways.

        I'm not convinced that the general public will pick up on this, but Win 8 is probably a better fit for inexperienced users than anything else out there right now.

        • Re:I Wonder? (Score:5, Informative)

          by rtfa-troll (1340807) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @09:58AM (#42160837)

          on this, but Win 8 is probably a better fit for inexperienced users than anything else out there right now.

          Please remember that it's for usability it's better to go with testing with multiple users than opinion since what seems to an technology expert to be good for a beginner might not actually be. In this case the testing has been done and a summary is avialable [useit.com].

          having two environments on a single device is a prescription for usability problems for several reasons

          • Users have to learn and remember where to go for which features
          • [..]
          • Switching between environments increases the interaction cost of using multiple features.
          • [etc... ]

          Read the full report to get the rest. Basically added to an interface which has been designed for graphic effect rather than usability:

          the new look sacrifices usability on the altar of looking different than traditional GUIs

          this all adds up to a system which will take much longer to learn and have much higher training costs than other UIs which exist currently, including Windows 7.

      • Re:I Wonder? (Score:4, Interesting)

        by PolygamousRanchKid (1290638) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @07:54AM (#42160461)

        Oh boy, I sure can't wait to install an OS with a phone interface on my desktop/laptop, that makes so much sense!

        Of course it makes sense . . . for Microsoft. You see, you're not supposed to use a keyboard or mouse to interface with your Windows 8 desktop/laptop. You're supposed to use your Windows 8 Phone, connected to your desktop/laptop, as your interface. Your Windows 8 Phone is the keyboard and mouse. This means that every Windows 8 desktop/laptop user will need to buy a Windows 8 Phone, as well. Microsoft is doing this because their Nokia subsidiary is not doing so well, because Nokia is selling Windows 8 Phones, instead of iPhones or Androids. Or Blackberries.

        So you don't need to worry about installing a phone interface on your desktop/laptop. You will be using your Windows 8 Phone to interface with it anyway.

        Does that sound bizarre enough for a Sunday morning?

    • by kthreadd (1558445)
      I hope so. I especially hope that Windows XP usage drops significantly up until April 2014 when the support ends. By then at least all companies still using XP should have moved, they usually care about those things.
      • by Lumpy (12016)

        I know of systems that are making $1500 an hour that still run Windows 2000. OS Vendor Tech support means nothing to most companies.

    • Re:I Wonder? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by penix1 (722987) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @07:06AM (#42160361) Homepage

      I wonder if win8 will ever pass the xp market share

      Microsoft's biggest competitor has always been itself. This is an effect of having the software pre-installed and aiming for the unwashed masses who don't go beyond what they got with the machines.

      As a side note, for shits and giggles I just ran the Windows 8 upgrade assistant and it informs me I will have to dump almost a quarter of the applications I use daily and that my screen resolution was too low for snap (whatever that is). It also informs me the touchscreen I have (HP Tx2Z) isn't compatible and that gestures won't work right. Now the question is why I should update and lose perfectly good software I purchased and is working right now as well as system functionality that is working right now just to have the "latest" version of an OS? Why should I go through the pain of the update when I don't need to? That will always be the Microsoft fight and why XP is hanging in there for so long.

    • by hairyfeet (841228)

      Actually if it does MSFT will be VERY unhappy, as Ballmer wants fragmentation up the ass, why? Because it took 7 years of sales to get XP that high and Ballmer don't want ANY product in the channel longer than 3 years. Also by getting lots of churn he can have the OS push whatever he wants to sell, this time its appstores, next time may be games or streaming media.

      Personally with all the backlash i'm seeing against Win 8 here at the shop I'd frankly be amazed if Win 8 ever breaks double digits, too many pe

    • by westlake (615356)

      I wonder if win8 will ever pass the xp market share

      I wonder if Linux will ever pass Win 8's market share.

      ---- and by "Linux" I mean the traditional community oriented Linux distribution, not Android.

      Android is defined by Google and the manufacturer or distributor of the Android based device. The FOSS oriented geek may hack the device and side-load apps. But the FOSS oeienred geek is not by any stretch of the imagination a significant force in this market.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:18AM (#42160089)

    Finally!
    I can Photoshop Angry Birds! You don't know how I've been missing the feature to be able to run Angry Birds AND full blown photoshop, and all for the bargain price of $999.99!

    Plus I get to use Active Directory, letting me leverage my work network for printing out all those Word documents on the exciting ribbon interface.

    Sometimes on a cold morning, I miss the warmth of a Pentium, I'd sacrifice some of my battery to make, say, some sort of leg warmer, maybe even with a fan to blow the warm air! If only somebody would make me one of those tablet thingies with a lap warmer, I'd be happy!

  • by bmo (77928) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:32AM (#42160127)

    ...in virtual machines, because honestly, everything Vista and above is so freakin' huge.

    And to what benefit all that resource suckage adds up to, I'm still not sure.

    --
    BMO

    • by Sycraft-fu (314770) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:50AM (#42160183)

      It works quite well in 512MB in a VM. Try it on a hypervisor that can do dynamic memory some time (Hyper-V and ESX can). Set it to 512MB minimum and a plenty high max. Fire it up, watch it drop to 512MB used.

      Also if you are planning on using XP in VMs you'd better either plan on taking them off the net or plan on moving to something else since support for it ends in 2014 and running a networked OS that doesn't get patches is a bad idea.

      • by bmo (77928) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @07:04AM (#42160353)

        Well, that's the advantage of virtual machines.

        Severe bondage and discipline for Windows OSes with no safeword.

        --
        BMO

      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward

        512MB? Are you fucking kidding me?
        A updated XP SP3 with default services running idles at < 100MB...

      • by Archimonde (668883) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @08:09AM (#42160513) Homepage

        If it runs so well, how do you explain that those metro programs are total pigs in terms of running them? I have a fairly fast computer with SSD and even microsoft's metro apps take 10 seconds to open. On the same computer, photoshop takes 3.5 seconds to open. It just painful to watch those those full screen loading screens for applications which are gui-wise not much complex than win3.1 programs.
         

      • Off the net is perfectly fine for some of us.

        I run Win2K in a VM to run those rare MSWindows-only applications. They may dial up to get updates, but they're effectively behind a couple NATs so I'm not expecting them to get infected.

        And if they do get infected, just reimage it.

      • by WD (96061)
        It works quite well in 512MB in a VM. Try it on a hypervisor that can do dynamic memory some time (Hyper-V and ESX can). Set it to 512MB minimum and a plenty high max.

        So what you're saying is that it does not work with 512MB?
      • by MacGyver2210 (1053110) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @12:12PM (#42161465)

        Set it to 512MB minimum and a plenty high max. Fire it up, watch it drop to 512MB used.

        I did try Win8 on a VM. The simple fact is, it's slow as shit. I did as you said, and tried setting it to a 512MB minimum. The only time it ran at 512MB was when I wasn't using it, when I had switched to something outside the VM with nothing running under 8. As soon as I even moused over something in the Win 8 VM the RAM usage skyrocketed to about 800MB. Then, when I launched Notepad, it went over a gig.

        Not sure how that is as efficient, considering on XP I can open a web browser and still sit under 400MB while using it.

    • by gagol (583737)

      And to what benefit all that resource suckage adds up to, I'm still not sure.

      -- BMO

      I like to believe it benefits storage vendors...

  • by sqrt(2) (786011) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @05:37AM (#42160137) Journal

    I support a lot of XP machines and in general the owners still love the OS because they are familiar with it. It's going to be around for a long, long time. I predict marketshare will continue dropping as it has until it reaches about 10% where it'll stabilize for a couple years despite being completely unsupported, losing perhaps 1-2% per year after that until completely dropping off the radar.

    MS is in a unique position with their OS because in general all new PCs ship with the newest version of Windows. So they can force Windows 8 into the market just by refusing to license it to OEMs for default installs and then waiting long enough for consumers to upgrade their hardware. That takes years, but as we saw with Windows 7 it's a predictable and regular process.

    The only question is, will MS stick to their guns and force this paradigm shift, or will they relent like they did with Vista and make Windows 8 a short-lived intermediate OS for whatever comes next? Maybe the next version of Windows will see a return to a more classic desktop paradigm similar to Windows 7, with metro being entirely optional. Maybe the next version will split into two, metro being aimed at consumer and tablet hardware and a Windows 7 style OS to keep corporate users happy. Sadly, I think the most likely outcome will be the first one. MS isn't going to relent. This is what they want their OS to be and that's the last word. "Corporate world, you better get used to it. You know you can't ditch Windows, Office, and Exchange." They're betting on the pain of switching to Linux or OS X (which strangely could now provide a more familiar experience to Windows users than MS's newest offering) being worse than the pain of learning this new family of software. And I think they'll get away with it just by shear momentum. To hurry adoption along even more I expect them to be more aggressive with Windows 7's EOL schedule than they were with XP, which was generous to start and then extended.

    • Re: (Score:2, Flamebait)

      by bogaboga (793279)

      To hurry adoption along even more I expect them to be more aggressive with Windows 7's EOL schedule than they were with XP, which was generous to start and then extended.

      Here's what they'll do:

      Announce a critical "newly discovered" bug in Windows XP whose only remedy is one of the following: -

      (1) Upgrade to the newest and greatest OS,
      (2) Take the system offline, or
      (3) Run an update, which degrades previously running applications.

      They will add that option 1 is the safest. When this happens, all those 10% rem

      • Never going to happen. I have a copy of XP that I have been using for nigh a decade, and I don't plan to stop over some bogus 'gotcha' bug. I might be one of the few people who actually reads the hotfix and patch/upgrade notes before just blindly accepting Windows Updates suggestions, but I can tell when it's a nonsense update and I have rejected quite a few in the last 8-10 years because they didn't seem necessary.

    • by dbIII (701233)
      A few weeks ago I upgraded a guy that was on XP with the Win2k style desktop theme to Win7 with the Win2k style desktop theme. While a few things have moved he's using it about the same way he used XP, and he was already on the "ribbon" version of MS Office.
      Going from a hard drive made in 2006 to a SSD may have made up for any annoyance about differences :)
    • by Kjella (173770)

      The only question is, will MS stick to their guns and force this paradigm shift, or will they relent like they did with Vista and make Windows 8 a short-lived intermediate OS for whatever comes next?

      How did Microsoft in any way "relent" with Vista? It was their leading platform for 2.5 years and people were refusing to upgrade from 5+ year old XP installs. If people act in the same way towards Win8 their sales will be weak for many years until they can finally push Win7 so 2015-2020 or so.

      To hurry adoption along even more I expect them to be more aggressive with Windows 7's EOL schedule than they were with XP, which was generous to start and then extended.

      The end of sales date is not set, but the EOL dates for Win7 are:
      Mainstream support: January 12, 2015
      Extended support: January 14, 2020

      Anyway, their extension was actually pretty much according to their stated support

    • by jbolden (176878)

      I don't think they will relent. They absolutely positively must have a system capable of operating in the new form factors like tablets and phones. If they didn't sell a single license during all of 2013 it would be worth it to force the paradigm shift.

      Further Windows 8 on Windows 8 hardware is good and people like it. So there is no reason to relent. The pain so far is:

      a) You have to (really should) replace your hardware
      b) You have to change multiple application workflows.

      For Small Business / consum

    • by b4dc0d3r (1268512)

      You're asking the wrong question.

      The only question is, will MS stick to their guns and force this paradigm shift, or will they relent like they did with Vista and make Windows 8 a short-lived intermediate OS for whatever comes next?

      MS has already announced plans to merge the desktop and phone SDKs (with little detail on exactly what that means). And, plans to do yearly releases like Apple does, for a minor upgrade fee.

      If developers refuse to make Metro versions of their apps, the desktop will stay around.

  • 8?

    Truly, 2013 will be the year of the Linux desktop!

  • by Tridus (79566) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @07:01AM (#42160349) Homepage

    Vista never got close, and it was because corporate users ignored it en-masse. Microsoft still counted sales because new PCs came with it, but they were immediately reimaged back to XP so never showed up in the usage stats. 7 is now passing XP because companies are now shifting to 7 (gradually). Few of them have any interest in switching to 8 due to the expense, retraining, and general lack of things making it worth doing for a large company.

    On top of that, with Microsoft's new plan to go to more frequent, smaller OS updates, "8" will only be on sale for a comparatively short period of time before the next update. Are they going to call that update Windows 8? Probably not. 8's reputation isn't exactly stellar in many circles, and they can polish up the rough edges and use the update for a rebrand.

  • wtf (Score:3, Informative)

    by trifish (826353) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @07:17AM (#42160379)

    Where do those stats came from and how old are they?

    Latest stats from two well-known sources show quite different numbers:

    NetApplications - North America + Europe:
    Win7 43%
    WinXP 21%
    http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=10&qpaf=-000%09100%090%0DO000%09100%091%0D [hitslink.com]

    Statcounter - WORLDWIDE
    Win7 53%
    WinXP 26%
    Source: http://gs.statcounter.com/#os-ww-monthly-201111-201211 [statcounter.com]

  • by demon driver (1046738) on Sunday December 02, 2012 @07:18AM (#42160383) Journal

    After Microsoft stopped to sell it four years ago? With that-what-must-not-be-named, which was intended to widely replace it, having become available nearly five years ago from now? And with even Windows 7 now being around for more than three years?

    I'd say, that's the important message behind the headline, and it's a good one, because it's continued proof that even Microsoft users, even when "the company is doing everything it can to get its users off Windows XP", as TFA says, don't eat every shit they're getting served. And, with Windows 8, there's good hope that Microsoft will be the ones who are going to choke on a new version of Windows, again.

  • Now it's time to see how long it takes Windows 8 to succeed its predecessors.

    You really need to get a life....

  • Forfty percent of all people enjoyed reading this submission.
  • by kenh (9056)

    The report is from September of the August results - last I looked it is now December.

    Also, why wasn't Linux even given passing mention? Has it's market share been reduced to a mere rounding error?

What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the will to find out, which is the exact opposite. -- Bertrand Russell, "Skeptical Essays", 1928

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