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Transportation Robotics Stats

Report: By 2035, Nearly 100 Million Self-Driving Cars Will Be Sold Per Year 325

Posted by samzenpus
from the take-me-home dept.
Daniel_Stuckey writes "The rise of autonomous cars might turn out to be more rapid than even the most devout Knight Rider fans were hoping. According to a new report from Navigant Research, in just over two decades, Google Cars and their ilk will account for 75 percent of all light vehicle sales worldwide. In total, Navigant expects 95.4 million autonomous cars to be sold every year by 2035. That's pretty astonishing. For one thing, that's more cars than are built every year right now."
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Report: By 2035, Nearly 100 Million Self-Driving Cars Will Be Sold Per Year

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  • WTF (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Arkh89 (2870391) on Monday August 19, 2013 @06:05PM (#44612051)

    They start making up figures on a market that has not started yet?
    Seems like a real great (and useful) idea to me...

    • It's called "looking for investors"

      • ...once I have personally spent a few weeks taking one through the centre of London and across the mountains of Spain, rather than watched some other guy entirely choose what route to demonstrate it on.

        Sure, I get it: driverless cars are far safer than human-driven cars according to tests performed under the auspices of a dozen people who with a heavy investment in driverless cars. Give random people in random countries some and see how they do.

    • Re:WTF (Score:5, Interesting)

      by ackthpt (218170) on Monday August 19, 2013 @06:47PM (#44612405) Homepage Journal

      They start making up figures on a market that has not started yet?
      Seems like a real great (and useful) idea to me...

      Because by then nobody will remember it. The volume of media these days will take something approximating Big Data mining just to find ordinary headlines, never mind piddly stuff like a weather or technology prediction

      I predict over 150 million Veeblefetzers will be in private hands by then end of 2015.

      And nearly 25 million homes will have at least one Potrzebie

    • by mcgrew (92797) *

      Projections. TFA follows advances in cruise control, with newer tech added in slowly -- the technology already exists. It's social pressures and fear of litigation that's really what's holding it back.

      It looked credible, read an article before you dismiss it as hogwash.

    • by Molochi (555357)

      I will own a self driving car. ASAP. I want it now.

      • Re:Duh (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Znork (31774) on Tuesday August 20, 2013 @03:26AM (#44615499)

        Self driving is the single feature that would ever get me to shell out for a new car. Nothing like having your own car drive you home after a couple of beers after work.

        Ultimately, the huge capacity to save lives and the economic advantages of self-driving cars and trucks are going to drive this step very fast. Tens of thousands of lives every year, hundreds of thousands of injuries, tens to hundreds of billions in insurance costs, tens to hundreds of billions in savings on transportation, etc. In the face of the possible gains I think the regulatory aspects will get resolved faster than most people think.

        • by Molochi (555357)

          I hope so. I am a pessimist about how quickly it will happen, however. I could see Google saying "Hey our car works. License our patents." and then all the car manufacturers dragging their heels about implementing the tech for 20 years.

    • The date is far enough out that folks will have forgotten this report by then. It's one of those hopeful dates meaning "in our lifetime", just like 2001: A Space Odyssey or Star Trek.

      Might well be accurate though, as I understand it we'll be getting self-driving technology from the Vulcans shortly after the eugenics wars.

    • by jrumney (197329)

      Its clear they don't know what they're talking about. Ever since the 1950's everyone has known that in 20 years time we will all be driving flying cars.

    • Re:WTF (Score:4, Interesting)

      by TWiTfan (2887093) on Tuesday August 20, 2013 @09:01AM (#44616977)

      This reminds me of a guy at work who used to constantly impress the boss by doing presentations that showed projections of the *future* growth of his area. Every time his division would have a bad year or lose money, he would just do a Powerpoint that projected huge growth for his division over the next 5-10 years, making the recent downturn on the chart look inconsequential. Since the boss was a sucker, this actually worked (surprisingly, it even worked on many of his co-workers too), and he was actually lauded for his supposed leadership.

      This all worked fine for him until someone with half a fucking brain (i.e., me) took over and canned his ass for being nothing more than a huckster. What's really funny is that no one ever even called him on the inaccuracy of his predictions, when he consistently failed to meet his own projections (of course, he always had a fresh chart showing how NEXT YEAR he was going to do great). Firing him was one of the very few times in my career when I actually enjoyed firing someone.

  • by Anonymous Coward

    Predictions about something 22 years into the future aren't worth the paper they aren't printed on.

    • Sure they are and even more as the paychecks at the research company will show

    • Look on the bright side: in 22 years, we'll be able to recharge these self-driving cars by plugging them into the fusion reactors we'll have by then.
    • by jonyen (2633919)

      Predictions about something 22 years into the future aren't worth the paper they aren't printed on.

      Yep, because we'll be going paperless by then.

      • by tsa (15680)

        And Linux on the desktop will be just around the corner by then.

    • by Darinbob (1142669)

      I think the Amazing Criswell would disagree with you.

    • by smaddox (928261)

      Depends on the prediction. Moore's law, although not strictly a prediction at first, was certainly worth the paper it was printed on.

      Here's a prediction that will certainly be worth the (digital) paper it's printed on: Moore's law will die sometime in the next 22 years. Of course, most likely CMOS transistors will be replaced by a more efficient nanoscale switch by then (here's hoping, anyways).

      Here's another (at least to me): In 22 years, I'll be making at least 4x the income I'm making now (even accountin

  • I personally wouldn't trust any auto driven care made by anyone. Its all about control baby and i want full control.
    • by fustakrakich (1673220) on Monday August 19, 2013 @06:19PM (#44612177) Journal

      You want full control? You can't handle full control! Nobody can. Self driving cars will save thousands of lives. It will be that much safer. The proof is in the airline industry. Operator error is by far the most important factor in all accidents.

      • by CanHasDIY (1672858) on Monday August 19, 2013 @06:23PM (#44612211) Homepage Journal

        You want full control? You can't handle full control! Nobody can. Self driving cars will save thousands of lives. It will be that much safer. The proof is in the airline industry. Operator error is by far the most important factor in all accidents.

        You mean, the same airline industry that is now questioning whether pilots rely too much on automation technology? [yahoo.com]

        Hindsight - it's always 20-20.

    • by Valdrax (32670) on Monday August 19, 2013 @06:22PM (#44612207)

      I personally wouldn't trust any auto driven care made by anyone. Its all about control baby and i want full control.

      I trust other drivers far less than I trust engineering, and I find driving long distance to be a tedious chore.

      So I can't wait until driverless cars are on the market. I just hope I'll be able to afford them when they are, and I hope they won't require any oversight from me by the time I'm old and gray, so I can happily nap at the wheel.

      • by Rinikusu (28164)

        +fucking+

        I can't wait until I can just get in my car and say "Home" and have it take care of the driving while I take a nap, read /. or whatever.

      • Today's speed limits are chosen with the limitations of human drivers in mind.

        But each autonomous driving algorithm should have its own set of speed limits, customized for it.

        Whether those limits are higher or lower should depend on how competent a given algorithm proves itself to be, relative to human drivers.

        * If a driving algorithm is a little more accident-prone than the average human driver at a given speed, that deficiency could be rectified by forcing it to observe lower speed limits.
        * On the other h

    • I personally wouldn't trust any auto driven care made by anyone. Its all about control baby and i want full control.

      The trouble is that most people overestimate themselves - for instance in matters of spelling and capitalization. They often don't even notice the errors they're making. Yet they want us to believe they are the best navigators of two tons of steel traveling at high velocities.

      Personally, I'm still kicking myself for a fender bender with a guard rail on an icy curve twenty-two years ago, but

    • by jxander (2605655)
      You might want control, and maybe you can handle it safely ... but in the grand scheme of things, the less meat puppets we have operating heavy machinery, the safer we'll all be.
    • by mcgrew (92797) *

      I personally wouldn't trust any auto driven care made by anyone. Its all about control baby and i want full control.

      I hope you drive better than you type...

  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 19, 2013 @06:11PM (#44612095)

    The numbers are that high because so many of the cars crash into each other and people need to buy more.

    • If there's a place that needs cars that drives themselves, it's China. I'm not racist or anything, but if you search for "china car accident" on YouTube, you'll find some insane shit.

  • Self-driving cars in the future? You mean regular cars on the road, still? Where's my jetpack, damnit!

  • by Capt.DrumkenBum (1173011) on Monday August 19, 2013 @06:23PM (#44612209)
    I just spent over 300K on a new house so I can take the train to work. A self driving car that could drive me to work while I take a nap. They will sell like crazy.
  • world hunger and thirst will be solved by flying magic ponies that poop colored manna and piss purple mineral water

    on what the fuck did this "institute" base their figures, tea leaves?

  • Sharing will soar (Score:4, Insightful)

    by swilver (617741) on Monday August 19, 2013 @06:24PM (#44612229)

    Ridiculous. If a car can drive itself, it is much easier to share with others. No need for a family to have 3 cars anymore if you can just send one to go pick some one up.

    There'll be a taxi style service, or cars shared by people living in the same block, and cars will just go where they're needed.

    • by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 19, 2013 @07:29PM (#44612725)

      Ridiculous. If a car can drive itself, it is much easier to share with others. No need for a family to have 3 cars anymore if you can just send one to go pick some one up.

      It also creates a market for a box-on-wheels that is not intended for human transport. You send it to the dry-cleaners. They load it with your clothes and send it back to you. Every single delivery or drive-thru business model can use this. No need for expensive seats, seatbelts, airbags, crumple zones, roll bars, etc. It doesn't need a long range or a high-performance engine. This can immediately replace 75% of the traffic from "running errands"

      What's even better is that you don't even need to store it. When it's not in use, it drives to some nearby fleet facility that handles refueling, maintenance, etc. You don't even need to own it because it's an impersonal, fungible box-on-wheels. You just rent it and let some company benefit from the economy of scale.

    • by Chuckstar (799005)

      It's pretty hard to imagine a car that can deal with every possible eventuality on the road. More likely what will happen is that automated cars will be able to get themselves to a safe/stopped spot, then throw control back to the driver to figure out what to do next.

      In other words, we may have self-driving cars where you can read a book while it drives, but it'll be a long time before you can send a car out without someone who can take over in the event of something happening outside of its programming.

      Ju

      • by NoKaOi (1415755)

        Just as a simple example: There's an accident. The cops are waving cars around the accident, indicating they should drive through a vacant lot. Would a self-driving car understand what to do?

        Yes, because the cops would have the equipment to tell the cars how they should reroute themselves. This will also lead to a movie where an inbred hillbilly cannibal hacks the system and reroutes unsuspecting college kids into their backyard to torture and eat.

  • The rise of autonomous cars might turn out to be more rapid than even the most devout Knight Rider fans were hoping.

    Considering that Knight Rider was first on the air in 1982, I don't think I can agree.

  • I predict in the next 20 years or so, shit is going to go so horrifically fucking wrong for humanity that "auto-cars" will be removed from the List of Stuff Society Cares About. Whether it be full-on nuclear war, a complete, global totalitiarian state, or a big fucking asteroid obliterating all life, something bad is gonna happen, that makes us, collectively, stop giving a shit about trivial, non-survival nonsense like flying auto-cars.

    I guess we've got 'till 2033 to see who's right. I'll go get some beer a

    • Agree but not on the date. I'm thinking we have until around 2050.

      Disease is possible but natural disease doesn't seem likely.

      Designer disease seems fairly likely. Less expensive to make each year. At some point any crazy with a million bucks could probably make something slow to kill but fast to spread. Chance we'll get better at analyzing disease and be able to develop a cure faster.

      Asteroids seem unlikely. But if a big one came, we wouldn't be able to do much.

      War seems most likely, it would really m

  • This tech is commercially viable for longhaul trucking right now. That is the first market.. Not passenger vehicles.

    Nobody will say this, of course, because it is going to make an entire industry obsolete overnight.

  • The Institute of Pulling Numbers Out of Our Arse. We are responsible for 95.3% of the statistics available on the internet.

  • All the convenience of a Chauffeur, only without having to pay one, but you get to wash the car and pull maintenance yourself! I'd love to be able to sit back and read my book while the car drives itself to my destination!
  • It doesn't get me to work any faster since it will probably obey the traffic laws and not go over the speed limit. It won't get me to any destination faster, since it probably will not go over the speed limit. It probably won't speed up half a block away to 10 over the speed limit to catch a green light. And I have no desire to sit and play video games while my car is driving itself. I'm sure the driver will still need to pay attention anyway in case anything goes wrong, especially with early models. I'm su
  • -Who needs an own car if a car comes to you in 5 minutes when you need it

    -Shops will be packing motorized shopping carts which bring you the grocery home

    -charging stations will be big and centralizsed with secured parking. after all the car can go a few km

  • This is what I don't get. Was it Ford that said he wanted his employees paid enough that they could buy the cars they made? By then everything will be made with robots. Sure, it took a little longer than we expected. Computers had to catch up and there were some material science issues. But it's pretty clear that automation is (finally) coming. Heck, Boeing is on it's way back to the US bringing robots instead of jobs... So who, besides maybe 50,000 people at the top and another 200,000 of their bootlickers
    • by alen (225700)

      not like money will just instantly vanish
      it will be invested somewhere and create new jobs that don't exist yet

  • I can maybe see self drive only roads / lanes that have grade separation. At least at first and even in say a full auto drive system maintenance and utility trucks will need to have some manual control.

  • I think if the thing self drives, a community car could deliver itself to your door if you order it with a phone. Sure vandalism is possible, but cameras + the next user reporting the problem can track down criminals.
  • A self driving car will quickly find another and lock in or hook up to it.
    Before you know it you have .... a train!
    And car drivers that aspire to be on a train are few and far between.

  • Personally, I won't buy one if it's a friggin' electric car. If it's powered by good old in-your-face, enviro-fascists fossil fuels, I'd be interested. But seriously, for a long cross-country trip, this would be great. Even better if they can put it in an RV. That way, I could be making a sammich without having to watch the road.

  • If my human driven car hits a tree or pedestrian, I or the driver is at fault. If Google's self driving car hits a tree/pedestrian, can I sue Google? Of course, there would probably be an army of lawyers trying to blame every conceivable part of the car just like tech support drones try to find any down level driver on my enter computer to blame problem x. "Ok, the bios update which according to the release-notes says that it fixes the F12 help menu typo, is why my computer crashes..."

    Also, normally I ro

    • by devman (1163205)

      In this scenario you are not changing the loss amounts, just who pays. So it could be a requirement when you drive a car (specifically a licensing requirement to use the auto-drive feature) that you pay the premiums that insure (with some mandated coverage amounts) the developer of the software, similar to having a borrower pay mortgage insurance (which covers the banks risk not yours even though your paying for it). If self-driving cars are truly safer statistically this will end up net less than traditio

    • by NoKaOi (1415755)

      This is probably going to be the biggest obstacle in self-driving car adoption in the US (with the assumption that the technology will steadily progress to make it feasible in the near future). Even if it means a fraction of the accidents that currently happen...it's not a matter of safety, it's a matter of liability.

  • 1998 production: 52 987 000
    2011 production: 59 870 838

    And the curve looks fairly flat.

    Probably cars lasting/being kept longer is part of the flatness of the curve.

    Was hoping to see 1990 since that's 25 years back.

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