Tesla Fires and Firestorms: Let's Breathe and Review Some Car Fire Math 264
cartechboy writes "There are about 150,000 vehicle fires reported every year in the U.S. — about 17 every hour, on average. But when that vehicle fire is a Tesla, the Internet notices. There have now been three fires among roughly 20,000 Tesla Model S electric cars on the road so far. The stock is down, the Feds are asking questions and the Internet is swimming in Tesla news. It may be time to check the facts and review some math (hint: we're looking at roughly one fire for every 33 million miles driven so far) and then breathe. Then look at what we know, what we don't know, and what we should know."
Re:American cars in general... (Score:3, Informative)
[citation needed]
OK, here is some math. (Score:5, Informative)
According to the US Bureau of Transportation,there are over 250 million cars on the road in the US. There are 150,000 fires in those vehicles a year __according to the OP__.
There are 20,000 Tesla cars, with 3 fires.
Relative risk = ( 3 / 20000 ) / ( 150000 / 250000000 ) = 0.00015 / 0.0006 = 0.25.
Get a Tesla, so as to avoid vehicle fires. Maybe? Depends on whether the reported stats are correct.
dropped cigarettes, intentional etc. vs. spontaneo (Score:3, Informative)
The "all car fires" stat includes dropped cigarettes that smolder, cars intentionally set on fire, etc.
How many regular cars light on fire on the highway after running over a debris such as a hitch?
Also, how many do you want to have on fire? How many would ignite if there was a shield that would flex rather than puncture?
Re:How about just battery fires also? (Score:5, Informative)
Remove your biases for a moment and read TFA. All this bullshit doom and gloom is nonsense propaganda, or at least most of it. Most likely, brought to you by several groups of people that don't benefit (enough) from EVs, and stand to lose a whole lot of money if they begin to be successful.
Accident 1. It apparently occurred after the Model S ran over a piece of road debris later described as a "curved section that fell off a semi-trailer." That item punched a 3-inch hole through the 1/4-inch-thick armor plate protecting the pack, with a force of 25 tons, according to a report by Tesla. The car alerted the driver of a fault, and he pulled over and exited the car.
Emphasis is mine. It should not take a rocket scientist to guess that this is a big fucking piece of steel. It may not have made your Combustion car catch fire, but your car would have most taken tremendous damage at least. Your car does not have 1/4-inch armor plating, so you may not have lived through it.
Accident 2. It apparently occurred after the Model S driver jumped a curb, took out several feet of a concrete wall, and then hit a tree.
Ever hear of Michael Hastings who died in a new Mercedes that hit a tree and caught fire? It happened very recently, so you can save the "it never happens with gas cars" lines. I don't think the mention of the guy being drunk makes a lick of difference to the point. The point is, this guy was driving very fast and crashed into a bunch of hard stuff.
Accident 3. It too apparently occurred after the Model S ran over a piece of road debris, this time reportedly described by police as a tow hitch that pierced the undercarriage. Tesla issued this statement: “We have been in contact with the driver, who was not injured and believes the car saved his life. Our team is on its way to Tennessee to learn more about what happened in the accident.”
So once again, we have a massive piece of road debris that would have totaled any other car on the road as the culprit, and as of yet an unknown cause of fire. Note the drivers opinion that the car saved his life and received no injuries. Sure, he's not an expert but you were not there so are not an expert either.
All this shit keeps pointing to some people wanting bad press for EVs because, you know.. we kill a whole lot of people to get this oil that should be able to transfer a good chunk of your money to them!
Re: How about just battery fires also? (Score:4, Informative)
That's discounting other sources of iginition. Fuel fires are not the primary cause of car fires.
Catalytic converters, voltage regulators, and alternators also play significant roles. Devices used to generate and manage variable electrical loads cause more fires.
Re:How about just battery fires also? (Score:5, Informative)
Why on earth would you bother making bunch of wrong assumptions about *my* anecdote?
No, the garage was packed with shit, several other items with gasoline in them (leaf blower, snow blower) literally exploded, and the fire was so hot it warped some glass on the house 30 feet away. There was almost nothing left of the car except the bare metal frame. And the garage definitely "burned down", there was no roof left by the time the firefighters managed to contain it.
And the firefighters themselves said they weren't that worried about the gas tank exploding, since automobile tanks are designed to withstand high heat and pressure in the tank, ie. it was NOT the exception but the rule. Unless the tank it punctured the gas in it was unlikely to ignite. At least go look it up instead of making it up - the majority of car fires (even in "on and running" cars) involve the engine compartment (gas in the lines, oil, etc) and the upholstery, etc, but not the gas tank itself (I saw a stat on NFPA that quoted ~10% of car fires involve the fuel tank). Which was my point in countering the comment "the gasoline is 99% of what is burning and not really the car itself", which is false in more cases than not.
But you probably know more commenting on an anecdote without any information than firefighters who see this all the time or associations whose job is to minimize fire risks, of course...