Electric Cars: Drivers Love 'Em, So Why Are Sales Still Low? 810
cartechboy writes "The electric car challenge is what insiders call "getting butts in seats" — and a lot of butts today still belong to humans who are not yet buying electric cars. The big question is: Why? Surveys show drivers are interested in electric cars--and that they love them once they drive them. EVs also cost less to maintain (though more to buy in the first place) and many experts say they're simply nicer to drive. So what's the problem? Disinterested dealers, uneven distribution, limited supplies, and media bias are some potential challenges. Or maybe it's just lousy marketing--casting electric cars as a moral imperative or a duty, like medicine you have to take."
I'll buy one... (Score:5, Insightful)
money? (Score:2, Insightful)
Nowhere to plug one in (Score:5, Insightful)
It's as simple as that.
I live in an apartment building. I've discussed the matter with the building management but we haven't come up with an answer. While new buildings must have electrical hookups for electric cars, there is no incentive to retrofit old buildings.
...laura
Because they're EXPENSIVE (Score:5, Insightful)
Let me know when a used one is in my working-class budget range, and we'll talk.
PRICE!! (Score:3, Insightful)
PRICE!! I'd buy one in a heartbeat if they were a sane price compared to a gasoline equivalent.
Duh, no place to plug into (Score:5, Insightful)
Seems obvious to me. I, like many others, live in an apartment. My parking spot doesn't have an electrical outlet anywhere nearby, and neither does my office parking lot.
Re:I'll buy one... (Score:2, Insightful)
The government that's already running a deficit of $1 trillion a year?
Re:money? (Score:3, Insightful)
but we still want them to be able to go on long distance journeys a few times a year for family holidays
I'd like to take a moment to introduce you to a fledgling little company known as Hertz.
Re:2 Words (Score:3, Insightful)
You forgot cold weather.
Re:2 Words (Score:5, Insightful)
One Word: Price.
They look nifty, but for the price, you can have an extra nifty gas burning car - why spend $30K on an econobox when you can get a "real $30K car" instead?
Re:money? (Score:5, Insightful)
A cheap electric car that performs well will sell like crazy.
Define "cheap". I bought my Nissan LEAF because, compared to every other new hybrid or ICE-only vehicle I looked at, it was the cheapest option.
Now, I was looking to buy new, not used, which means I was looking at a higher price point than a lot of people, and I am willing (and able) to spend a little more money up front in order to save it over the longer term. Within those parameters, though, and making some assumptions about the price of fuel (which, I have to admit, are pretty far off base right now; I didn't anticipate such a dramatic drop), the three EVs I looked at were all significantly cheaper than any of the other options over an eight-year time horizon -- and that was without even considering the lower maintenance costs, didn't factor in the tax credits and included some pretty pessimistic assumptions about EV resale value.
With the tax credits available, the break-even point against the next-best vehicle (the Honda Insight) as just a bit over two years. And the price of the LEAF has dropped significantly since I did the analysis.
Assuming a LEAF or an i-MiEV or similar fits your driving needs, they are very cost-effective options. And my LEAF is a lot of fun to drive; it performs quite well.
Unrealistic cost (Score:4, Insightful)
They will do this because it offers a competitive advantage, the same way that offering free wifi does.
You have got to be joking - do you have ANY concept of how much it costs to add a WiFi router to an internet connection the business already has, vs. running a high-load electrical connection out to even just TWO parking spaces? Not to mention cost of the electricity, not to mention the high likelihood of outside connections being vandalized...
There is no way you can justify the cost of adding car charging outlets to every small business.
This is the reason Electric is failing, because there's just so large a gap between the fantasy and reality.
Re:40mpg (Score:5, Insightful)
Yep, you got it. When I run the math, it just is not in my favor yet.
I drive a truck now, and have been looking to get a second car to commute with to keep the miles off the truck, as I like having a truck but never want to have to buy another one. When I run the math on a Leaf, or Focus EV the break even point is way out there. $35k ballpark vs. ~15k for gasoline. At $4/gallon that is 5000 gallons of gas for a break even point of roughly 200k miles. Given my commuting use of about 5k miles per year I am looking at a 40 year break even compared to a 40 mpg econobox. I'll still be racking up about 5k miles per year on long trips in my truck. So for me, despite the desire, the math stinks.
I have seen this trend on a lot of the for sale Leaf's, commuting modest distances doesn't rack up many miles. Lots of folks end up selling simply because they change jobs and end up with a long commute, but the range isn't adequate. Sort of a catch 22.
Um, duh (Score:4, Insightful)
Price, range and infrastructure.
Maintenance, schmaintenance, when was the last time you heard of an American spending more in something and thinking ahead to spend less later? (see: phone contracts)
Anything that only goes only 60 miles at a time and then takes all night to be able to start again is worthless other than for very short, painstakingly planned, local trips.
Even if the infrastructure *was* there, who is able to stop every 60 miles for several hours on end?
Even if you're buying it to be "green" (ugh), how much energy was needed and how much pollution was created in the manufacturing process vs. that of a dead-dinosaur automobile? There are reports that these figures are tremendously high *just* for the batteries. Are you really causing less pollution or just relocating it?
Speaking purely in terms of range capability, I think the Chevy Volt has the right idea. The propulsion is 100% electric. The batteries are charged by plugin or an gas-powered generator, so you use no fuel for short trips but can still make longer ones when you need to.
Re:Duh, no place to plug into (Score:3, Insightful)
Seems obvious to me. I, like many others, live in an apartment. My parking spot doesn't have an electrical outlet anywhere nearby, and neither does my office parking lot.
In addition, how exactly does one bring a "can of electrons" to a car that's died along the road somewhere? I know they have meters for the amount of charge, but there will still be times when people end up having their electric car die along the highway.
If there's a storm and a power failure, possibly for days, what then? Tie up money and resources to have both a gasoline and an electric car? Tell your boss you can't come in because the electricity is out?
I can carry enough gasoline in one hand to fuel a car for 125-plus miles easily (5 gallons x 25mpg), and it only takes as long as it takes to pour the stuff into the tank to be on the way.
Energy density/portability is a serious issue with electric vehicles, particularly when charging infrastructure is almost non-existent, and charging turnaround times are also an issue.
Until those problems are addressed such that they can compare favorably with gasoline, electric cars will be a niche market restricted to mostly higher-income people living and working in urban metropolitan areas, and then mainly as an additional "commute-only" vehicle.
Strat
Re:money? (Score:5, Insightful)
I've been trying to price out electric car ROIs as well and I'm getting basically the opposite outcome. They all seem to be ~$7500 more after the tax credit than the comparable gas powered car (e.g. leaf vs versa S plus) and that pays for quite a lot of gasoline. I calculate ~65k miles worth at 35mpg and $4/gal and that doesn't include the electric power costs.
Using this calculator [driveelect...linois.org] I keep coming up with a break even point of about 8 years.
Cost of New Gas Car: $13970
Fuel Efficency of Gas Car: 35mpg
Cost of Gas: $4/gal
Cost of Electric Car: $21300
Cost of Electricity: $0.06/kWhr
kWh/100 miles: 34
Annual Driving Distance: 10000mi
Re:money? (Score:4, Insightful)
For most people, it isn't just a few times a year. The national average commute to work is about 16 miles, or a 32-mile round trip. The worst case range on a Nissan leaf is only 47 miles. So if you have to make an extra stop across town to drop your kid off at school or pick up groceries, then even a driver with an average commute under worst-case conditions might not make it home without a charge. So for about half of all drivers (assuming the median is probably near the mean), electric cars aren't practical or are just barely practical when brand new.
Oh, but it gets worse. The older the battery gets, the less capacity it has. By the time a car is ten years old, I would expect it to have about half as much range as it did when it was new. Thus, the range of a 10-year-old EV is likely to be inadequate for the overwhelming majority of drivers in their day-to-day activities.
The magic number is 200 miles for the worst-case range. This ensures that when the vehicle is a few years old, its range will likely still be enough to handle the majority of owners' commutes. This translates to about a 300 mile average range. In other words, the batteries on existing EVs are undersized by more than a factor of 4 from what I would consider to be a usable vehicle. They're simply nowhere close to being ready for prime time.
Re:2 Words (Score:3, Insightful)
running the heater fan could account for more...
anyhow, in finland I never noticed that much of a difference in fuel range from +30c to -30c.
besides, with colder weather areas comes sparser population density which is the real problem... the trips you're taking are longer.
Re:Unrealistic cost (Score:4, Insightful)
You have got to be joking - do you have ANY concept of how much it costs to add a WiFi router to an internet connection the business already has, vs. running a high-load electrical connection out to even just TWO parking spaces? Not to mention cost of the electricity, not to mention the high likelihood of outside connections being vandalized...
Except that companies like SemaCharge and ChargePoint will actually install and maintain the equipment for almost nothing. They make their money by charging for use (you get an account and they mail you a card which you have to tap to charge).
I'll readily admit that I haven't looked into the details, but I know these companies are trying to address exactly the issue you're talking about, and to profit from solving that problem.
Re:dirty and not affordable (Score:4, Insightful)
Nuclear could be 75% of our power, that is the base load. Renewables could be the other 25%. (the percentages could vary, it could be 50/50, or 65/35, the principle remains the same)
Within a generation, if we wanted to, we could rid ourselves of fossil fuels completely.
For some reason, we just don't want to. I support it, but I feel like I'm in the minority.
Re:I'll buy one... (Score:4, Insightful)
You're not considering the reduced maintenance costs.
You have one $8,000 maintenance item with the battery, as opposed to twenty $800 items over those 14 years; of course by then you'd be ready for a trade in anyways.
Re:2 Words (Score:4, Insightful)
None of the EVs are actually price-competitive at purchase time without a big rebate.
This is indeed the primary problem. I can afford an EV, I can afford to spend $20K more on an EV if I wanted to. But I didn't get to where I am by making emotional decisions with money. When it makes economic sense, I'll be first in line to buy an EV, I do believe they are the future. Burning dead dinos in our cars and trucks really has no long term future in it.
On the other hand, the Denali's name is a barely-transposed acronym. Get a smaller car.
Actually, I use every bit of it... I have 3 kids, and we're often driving around their friends as well, plus hauling stuff. I also use it for work, picking up and dropping off computer equipment.
I know that some people buy a truck like that and drive it around empty, but in my case, I really do need the space, both for kids and for cargo.
Re:2 Words (Score:5, Insightful)
Lets compare..
The Chevrolet and Nissan cars, straight from their sites. These are all "starting from..." prices. We could compare options all day. I've excluded the high end sports cars (Corvette and GT-R respectively)
Really, a $1,190 difference between a Leaf and a 370Z? $19.83/mo difference with 60 month financing? A buyer would switch up the the 370Z if they want performance, or they'll happily save $3,570 by going down to the Altima Coupe.
The same applies to Chevy, except stepping down to a gas car saves $7,325. Stepping up is a bit more expensive.
The EVs are a great idea. They aren't priced to sell to most consumers. They're priced to sell to people who want to brag they have an EV, much like pricing on high end sports cars.
I *want* an EV. If I had to buy a new car today, I wouldn't buy one. Besides the above average costs, I see longevity being a problem. The car I have now is over 10 years old. I have serious doubts in the longevity of the current EVs, and part replacement costs. As I understand it, the Volt battery pack is $8,000. Nissan Leafs batteries cost $15,000. Nissan has a payment plan deal, which still ends up costing you thousands.
There are other pesky issues, like the cost of recharging.
Re:I'll buy one... (Score:3, Insightful)
Nor should it subsidize the irrationally car-centric lifestyle of the average American. Remove all the direct and indirect subsidies from gasoline, and when gas hits it true price -- on the order of $13/gallon [grist.org] -- market forces will kill gas-powered cars in no time.
Re:I'll buy one... (Score:2, Insightful)
Reagan only proved that you could already spend money your kids will have to earn. Problem is: We're the kids.
Re:2 Words (Score:3, Insightful)
What southern tier state do you live in where you can say cold weather is only a problem in Antarctica?
Range is certainly the issue but price is equally the issue, and mostly because of range.
If people have to buy a second car for longer trips, they aren't going to want take that long trip in a piece of crap tin can with no amenities.
So that means two fairly expensive cars.
Extend the range, make recharge station more frequent, shorten the charge time and the cost problem goes away. But mostly you have to double the range.
No, 280 miles is not far enough, even when you can charge while eating lunch. Ten hour drives are more common than lots of people think.
Right now, all you have is the commuter market. And forgetting to change one night means you go no where the next day, which makes even that market nervous.
Re:2 Words (Score:3, Insightful)
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Terribly engineered for actual customers (Score:4, Insightful)
On top of all that there are a few bad design decisions. First is they keep trying to put too big a battery in the cars; this is just stupid until batteries get cheaper and better. Just meet the average commuter's needs for a round trip with margin and you will sell them a car. The next design disaster is when they try to simulate a real gas car by putting a piston engine in as in the volt. The best solution would be to have a low power gas turbine (5-10hp) that can charge the car's battery slowly. This way you eliminate range anxiety by allowing the person to realize that they don't have enough juice to complete the journey so they kick in the turbine (or automatically when they set a destination that is beyond the battery's range) which will buy more range. If the turbine doesn't provide enough immediate range the driver could pull over and get a coffee while the turbine adds a mile of range every minute or two.
Gas turbines have been tried in cars, but the problem is that a large mass spinning at extremely high speeds doesn't work out well in a car environment. The sudden changes in direction (both turns and especially bumps) are horrible for large turbine bearings. Something the size of a turbocharger can handle it, but the equivalent of an even a small aircraft APU is a different beast.
Lastly there are all kinds of engineering gaps in these cars. One interesting one is heating in colder climates. In the winter around here a smaller battery would be eaten just keeping me warm, especially if I am waiting in the car. One simple solution would be to have an alcohol heater which would be simple and single purposed for keeping me warm. This would be great if you could turn it on 10 minutes before you get into the car and it would warm up the car and maybe even the batteries.
Note that resistance heaters have given way to far-more-efficient heat pumps, so it's no worse a range hit than using air conditioning in summer. The HVAC on even a Leaf can be remotely fired up while still hooked to the charger.
Then the last and most important bit which is battery life. That is how many years will these batteries run the car. We all have laptops where the batteries have cacked after a year or two; often fairly suddenly, one moment we had a battery life and then the battery is complaining seconds after unplugging the laptop. So the car companies need to either warranty the batteries and maybe even set an eventual replacement price in stone.
Setting the price in stone might be a bit of a problem, but they are putting warranties on batteries. The Leaf's battery warranty is 5 years/60,000 miles, Tesla's 60 kWh pack is 8 years/125,000 miles, and their 85 kWh pack is 8 years, unlimited mileage.
Even with all that, an electric still isn't workable for my own use case, though it comes close. It's still the whole road trip issue for me. A Leaf would fit 90% of my driving, but it's that last 10% that's the deal-breaker. Sure, I could rent something for the long trips, but that can get expensive.