Are US Hybrid Sales Peaking Already?

cartechboy (2660665) writes The Toyota Prius is pretty darn popular, especially in California. One might think that hybrid sales are on the rise as gas prices continue to fluctuate, but it seems hybrid sales in the U.S. might be peaking. Researchers at IHS Automotive found that U.S. hybrid sales haven't kept pace with the rest of the market. In the automotive world, conventional wisdom states that adding a model to a brand or segment will increase sales--but that hasn't happened with hybrids. The number of hybrid offerings has almost doubled from 24 in 2009 to 47 in 2014--but U.S. hybrid sales haven't dramatically increased. In fact, hybrid market share actually declined from 2009 to 2010, and then again from 2013 to 2014. So if consumers aren't buying hybrids, what are they buying? It seems some hybrid early adopters are now switching to plug-in hybrids or electric cars stating that these models are just nicer to drive.

My experience driving a Prius

[Shakrai]

We paid extra to rent a Prius went we went out West a few years ago. Don't recall which model year it was, 2007 or 2008 I think but could be wrong there. Either way I came away less than impressed. Strike One for me is anything with an automatic transmission, which makes me a relic I suppose, but there it is. The weird issue was with the seemingly hesitant throttle. There were times (turning left in front of oncoming traffic) where I stomped the gas and it seemed as though the computer had to stop and think, "Hmm.... electric, gas, or both?" and the car barely moved. Once it got going it had ample pick-up, for an automatic, but that 1-2 second delay took a lot of getting used to.

After a week of driving that thing I came away with the feeling that I would never own one. To be sure, there were some really neat things about it, like the dead silence when cruising at low speeds on the electric drive. Other than the throttle delay it handled as well as any mid-priced car I've driven. The build quality was nice and about what you'd expect in the price range. The gas mileage was a lot less impressive than what I was expecting, though the large proportion of highway miles and my penchant for speeding in wide open spaces (did you know the Prius will happily cruise at 110mph?) doubtless had something to do with that. Frankly if most of your driving is highway I don't see the point, my $17,000 non-hybrid Honda Civic is competitive with the Prius when it comes to highway driving.... I can milk 43-44mpg out of my Civic without trying that hard, and that's despite living in a hilly region.

Re:My experience driving a Prius

[jratcliffe]

The gas mileage was a lot less impressive than what I was expecting, though the large proportion of highway miles and my penchant for speeding in wide open spaces (did you know the Prius will happily cruise at 110mph?) doubtless had something to do with that. Frankly if most of your driving is highway I don't see the point, my $17,000 non-hybrid Honda Civic is competitive with the Prius when it comes to highway driving.... I can milk 43-44mpg out of my Civic without trying that hard, and that's despite living in a hilly region.

On the highway, the hybrid aspect becomes essentially irrelevant. If you took the Prius, and replaced the battery with an equivalent weight of lead, you'd get essentially the same highway mileage. It gets good highway mileage because its a (relatively) light car with excellent aerodynamics (like the Civic). Hybrids really shine (on a MPG basis) off the highway, where you recover the lost energy from braking in city traffic.

As an example, look at the Ford Fusion, which is available in a hybrid and non-hybrid version. On the highway, the hybrid gets 41mpg, vs. 37mpg for the regular version. In the city, however, the hybrid gets 44mpg, vs 25mpg for the regular version.

Very simple reason

[Anonymous Coward]

The reason Prius owners aren't buying new hybrids: because their Priuses are still running great. Mine is ten years old and runs as well as a brand new one.

Re:I can't buy one

[Ichijo]

There's also that whole 'gotta replace that uber-expensive-battery-pack-in-7-to-10-years-or-so' bit...

You don't have to replace the whole pack all at once:

The reality [forbes.com] is that there are 28 separate cells in the hybrid battery pack. When the unit starts to fail, only a handful of the individual cells are bad. What Prius Battery Repair of Houston does, and Toyota could do if it wanted to, is replace the bad hybrid battery pack with a reconditioned one to get the customer back on the road. Then, determine which cells are bad, and simply replace the bad battery cells, recondition the battery, and sell it to the next customer.

The individual cells are only about $25 each on the street.

Re:Why would I buy a Prius

[Chandon Seldon]

The Matrix is discontinued.

A 4-door Yaris will probably come in at $16.5k new. It'll give you 15.6 cu ft of cargo space and burn a gallon of gas to go 30/36 miles.

A Prius will come in around $25.8 new. It'll give you 21.6 cu ft of cargo space and burn a gallon of gas to go 51/48 miles, while having a much more comfortable interior.

A better comparison would be the Prius C, which will cost about $20.1k new. With that you've got 17.1 cu ft of cargo space and go 53/46 on a gallon of gas.

Toyota doesn't actually sell a car cheaper than the Prius C with more cargo space.

Reality check.

[guidryp]

When I can but a Toyota Matrix for half the price, get twice the cargo space and still get 38 mpg. I think consumers are realizing that hybrids are just a clever way for automakers to tax people who suck at math.

Really it sounds like you suck at math, but full points for hyperbole.

The Matrix gets 28 MPG, not 38 MPG. (vs 50 MPG for the Prius)
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg... [fueleconomy.gov]

The Matrix doesn't have twice the cargo space. According the same link, the Matrix has LESS cargo space than the Prius.

The Matrix wasn't half the price (It Appears the Matrix is no more), but again according to the above. Matrix was $19275 vs $24200 for Prius. Hardly half. The Base Prius is also a lot better equipped than a Base Matrix.

Also the average driver would save $850 annually on gas driving the Prius over the Matrix(if gas prices stay the same), meaning it would take 5.8 years to make up the price difference, after that it is gravy and you have a better equipped car, and more savings going forward.

Not 10K

[geekoid]

2001-2003 Toyota Prius (1st generation) - $3,649 minus $1,350 "core credit"
2004-2008 Toyota Prius (2nd generation) - $3,649 minus $1,350 "core credit"
2009-present Toyota Prius (3rd generation) - $3,939 minus $1,350 "core credit"
Toyota Camry Hybrid - $3,541, core credit deducted
Toyota Highlander Hybrid - $4,848, core credit deducted

"has over a 300 mile range when being driven aggressively with the A/C and/or heater running and the audio system blasting"
that would be "All of them"

You're an idiot.

Electric vehicles make great second cars

[lokidjm]

My wife and I both have our own cars to drive to work. She drives a compact SUV that we have had for a few years and I drive a Nissan LEAF. We can take the gas car if we need to go on a long trip and we have the LEAF to use the rest of the time. When we go out we always take the LEAF. It is much cheaper to operate and it is a blast to drive. Most of the families I know with two cars would be much happier with one gas car and one electric car.

Keep it Apples vs Apples.

[Firethorn]

Let's check the math. [toyota.com]

2014 Highlander 4WD Limited*: $41,960 18/24 mpg (21 averaged)
2014 Highlander Hybrid Limited AWD: $48,160 27/28 mpg (27.5 averaged)
Price difference: $6,200
Fuel cost per mile, $4 gallon: 19 cents vs 14.5
Savings per mile: 4.5 cents
Break Even: 138k miles
Time: 9.2 years.
Conclusion: Not worth it.
What if you're a 'city slicker'?
Cost per mile: 22 cents vs 15, diff 7
Break Even: 89k miles, 5.9 years. Worth it.

*Keeping the trim levels the same t