Are US Hybrid Sales Peaking Already? 377
cartechboy (2660665) writes The Toyota Prius is pretty darn popular, especially in California. One might think that hybrid sales are on the rise as gas prices continue to fluctuate, but it seems hybrid sales in the U.S. might be peaking. Researchers at IHS Automotive found that U.S. hybrid sales haven't kept pace with the rest of the market. In the automotive world, conventional wisdom states that adding a model to a brand or segment will increase sales--but that hasn't happened with hybrids. The number of hybrid offerings has almost doubled from 24 in 2009 to 47 in 2014--but U.S. hybrid sales haven't dramatically increased. In fact, hybrid market share actually declined from 2009 to 2010, and then again from 2013 to 2014. So if consumers aren't buying hybrids, what are they buying? It seems some hybrid early adopters are now switching to plug-in hybrids or electric cars stating that these models are just nicer to drive.
I can't buy one (Score:2, Insightful)
Are they peaking because nobody wants them, or because nobody wants to make them?
Re:I can't buy one (Score:4, Insightful)
Are they peaking because nobody wants them, or because nobody wants to make them?
It's because they're as expensive as hell for their size, are mostly (but not always) gutless on hills and under a full load, and they originally didn't deliver the fuel savings as originally promised.
There's also that whole 'gotta replace that uber-expensive-battery-pack-in-7-to-10-years-or-so' bit...
At least with a gas engine, you have some hope of stretching the car's useful life to 15 years these days.
New Car Buyers (Score:5, Insightful)
Some buyers of hybrids actually want 100% electric cars. The hybrid was settling. Now that there are some 100% electrics, those buyers won't buy another hybrid.
Some buyers can only afford the cheapest car or only want to afford the cheapest car with the most fuel economy, and often that's a subcompact with a small four-cylinder engine and highway differential gearing, and in many instances that car gets as good fuel economy as a hybrid of of the next size-class up.
Lastly, hybrids often are equipped with more options or luxury options, which pushes up the price.
If you want hybrids to sell more, make them cheaper to buy, and sell them based on their fuel economy as the feature, not simply that they're a hybrid. That'll help attract buyers that want to avoid the dreaded "H word", and could get subcompact economy buyers to consider hybrids.
I'd personally like an all-electric, but I don't want a goofy looking car in the process. I want something like a modern Dart or 200 with a full-electric drivertrain, like the setup used in the Fiat 500e. But since Marchionnie doesn't even want to sell the 500e and is only doing so because California's laws require it, I doubt we'll see a Dart-electric or 200e anytime soon.
Re:Well that seems just fine (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Why would I buy a Prius (Score:3, Insightful)
That's what I was thinking. Hybrids often don't get good enough gas mileage to warrant the extra cost. Now with more diesels hitting the market, you can get good mileage and still have good power.
Then there's folks like me who wouldn't be interested in a hybrid, but would jump into an electric car in a heartbeat. What can I say, I like fast cars. And electrics get you efficiency and torque. What's not to like (except charging times)?
Re:I can't buy one (Score:5, Insightful)
The i.MIEV is not a hybrid. It's electric. Which has its own sales problems because the powertrain is so simple and robust that it requires very little maintenance, so dealers HATE selling them (they don't make as much profit on new car sales since their margins always get squeezed and someone has to pay the interest on those 0% financing and stuff). Dealers love it when customers come back for service, because service is a high-margin item. High enough they toss in stuff like free oil changes and other cheap things to encourage returning. And do it every 3-6 months, at that.
An EV doesn't have many moving parts - just the motor, gearbox and wheels. Unlike an ICE, you don't need to do much maintenance beyond ensuring the coolant levels are OK, vital fluids (like say, brake fluid) are sufficient, etc. You can easily get away without having service them for 2 years or more. Heck, Tesla offers a "we-cover-everything-but-tires" service for $600 annually (including consumables!), and while cheaper than most vehicle services over the same period, is also optional and doesn't void your warranty if you don't do it.
Hybrids are great for dealers because the ICE requires regular servicing, and the motor couplers (for those where the motor and engine can drive the wheels) introduce more complexity for servicing (more $$$).
The other thing is, well, a lot of hybrids have piss-poor gas mileage that can be obtained with an all-gas vehicle. And some hybrids just plain suck or have poor reviews.
Re:I can't buy one (Score:5, Insightful)
I hear this from people who drive a stick all the time, and I've never understood it.
When I drive a stick, if I'm starting on a hill I pull the parking brake with my hand, keeping the button held in so it didn't latch, and not release it till I had enough traction with the engine to support the car so it didn't roll backwards.
Doesn't anyone else do this?
And as far as wanting a transmission that doesn't shift, you can get CVTs on non-hybrids, too. Most of them, however, are programmed to mimic an automatic's shift pattern because it's what people expect.
Re:Buying new vs. keeping what you have (Score:4, Insightful)
btw, If you're complaint about the Prius appearance - what's the drag coefficient of your car? Is it as good as my 10 year old Prius? 'Cause that's why it looks like it does - it's part of it's design elegance.
It's also why the Prius would get about 40mpg even if it had no hybrid features. If Toyota sold that car, they'd really corner the market, as it would have a better ROI than the hybrid Prius, and wouldn't have any risk about battery replacement (which isn't always covered by warranty).