Are US Hybrid Sales Peaking Already? 377
cartechboy (2660665) writes The Toyota Prius is pretty darn popular, especially in California. One might think that hybrid sales are on the rise as gas prices continue to fluctuate, but it seems hybrid sales in the U.S. might be peaking. Researchers at IHS Automotive found that U.S. hybrid sales haven't kept pace with the rest of the market. In the automotive world, conventional wisdom states that adding a model to a brand or segment will increase sales--but that hasn't happened with hybrids. The number of hybrid offerings has almost doubled from 24 in 2009 to 47 in 2014--but U.S. hybrid sales haven't dramatically increased. In fact, hybrid market share actually declined from 2009 to 2010, and then again from 2013 to 2014. So if consumers aren't buying hybrids, what are they buying? It seems some hybrid early adopters are now switching to plug-in hybrids or electric cars stating that these models are just nicer to drive.
Why would I buy a Prius (Score:3, Interesting)
When I can but a Toyota Matrix for half the price, get twice the cargo space and still get 38 mpg. I think consumers are realizing that hybrids are just a clever way for automakers to tax people who suck at math. Meanwhile the air in Beijing is still chewable so the saving the planet crowd might be weakening too.
Re:Why would I buy a Prius (Score:3, Interesting)
And electrics get you efficiency and torque.
But take most of the fun out of driving fast. No engine, no rpm, no manual transmission.
Its like being given a steak dinner in pre-chewed form. Its all there, but its still ruined. :)
When I bought my current sports car I shopped for the manual 6 speed transmission, not because I imagine I can shift better than the computer in the tiptronic version. but because just its so much more engaging and in turn more fun to drive the manual.
Electrics are rapidly reaching the point where they deliver all the performance of a real sports car, and beyond, but I've still got zero interest in one. (Although I'd be fine with one as a commuter car.)
Maybe I'm just being sentimental. :)
What's not to like (except charging times)?
Charging time actually another item that makes them fairly useless as a track day car. I can (and must) refill the tank in my car a couple times on a good track day (including a fill up and the end of the day to get me back home). A fill up takes all of 5 minutes.
Peaking? They're all tiny little crackerboxes (Score:2, Interesting)
I'm waiting for a model that is all-electric, won't require a $10,000 battery replacement after ten years (or ever, preferably), has over a 300 mile range when being driven aggressively with the A/C and/or heater running and the audio system blasting, is or can-switch-to 4WD with significant ground clearance, can carry significant cargo preferably in a pickup truck format with an extended cab or perhaps a roomy SUV format, and costs somewhere under 50k.
First trigger would be ultracaps or some other transformative storage tech (presuming no transformative on-board generation tech arrives first or otherwise). Second trigger would be that range issue. Finally, they have to address the complete lack of models of interest to me.
I don't think they're going to make what I want in the time I have remaining as a driver; right now, I don't even think they could do it if they had an unlimited budget.
Consequently, I'll keep rolling in what I already have. :)
Re:Why would I buy a Prius (Score:2, Interesting)
No fun? Dude. Go test drive a Tesla and you will change your mind. There is absolutely nothing like it. The lack of gear switching is exactly what makes it so mind-blowingly amazing.
Re:Economics (Score:4, Interesting)
The TCO estimates also use 15,000 miles/year as their base. Some people are fortunate enough to choose a place to live that is close to their job (or vice versa). My wife puts a whole 3500 miles on her Camry each year and I put around 7000 on the Sienna. They simply don't make hybrids or electrics that are cost effective for us.
Once you go electric, you never go back :-) (Score:3, Interesting)
My wife and I purchased a 2005 Prius (back when they were quite uncommon). Wife's car. She loved it. Very reliable. Great mileage in warm weather, decent mileage in winter (37 mpg).
I liked her Prius so much I bought a 2010 Prius. Better gas mileage than the 2005, plus the option to boost power on demand, made this car a dream to drive. The interior fit, though, is sad (annoying rattle under the glove box).
We recently upgraded my wife's 2005 Prius to a 2012 Chevy Volt. OMG. So quiet! And the initial torque when you step on the accelerator...wow, just wow. The 2012 Volt makes my 2010 Prius seem like a go cart. My wife's current game with the car is to see how little gas she can use. So far, 2 tanks consumed and both of those were mandatory burnoffs required by the Volt after the gas sat in the car (unused) for 12 months. Her current lifetime gas mileage (as recorded by Chevy) is 597 MPG.
My next car will not be a Prius...it will be an electric of some type.
Buying new vs. keeping what you have (Score:4, Interesting)
If I was in the market for a new car, I think by far I'd go for something Tesla.
If you can afford one, go for it. I'd do the same, but then again, I have a 10 year old Prius that's going fine (got a high-voltage battery replacement just last week - but that's covered under my state-mandated 10 year warranty) - cost to upgrade - $75k+, cost to keep my 50+mpg car? close to zero.
Now if I could buy an EV or hybrid minivan (none of this Prius V bullshit, Toyota - you sell the Hybrid Estima in Japan, why not here!?!) - I'd buy one in a heartbeat and replace my Prius.
btw, If you're complaint about the Prius appearance - what's the drag coefficient of your car? Is it as good as my 10 year old Prius? 'Cause that's why it looks like it does - it's part of it's design elegance.
Re:I can't buy one (Score:4, Interesting)
If you have an electric power train, then you don't have a hybrid.
That doesn't make sense. [wikipedia.org]
Re:I can't buy one (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm going to go ahead and assume that you didn't buy a "really fat kid" for yourself, and 'splain some things that I've learned as a nerdy Prius owner...
First, it's not gutless as you might think. It's not going to win any awards for acceleration, but it can do 0-60 in 9.7 seconds. That's probably on the slower half of the scale, but still faster than a Yaris Hatchback or Matrix, as well as non-US models like the Avensis, Aygo, or Auris - and that's looking only at Toyota sedans. Most of the gutlessness comes from us schmucks inside the car, who are in no hurry to rush you to the next red light when we can get there at the same time as you, and with half as much fuel, by taking it easy. Some of the gutlessness comes from a software setting that adjusts the throttle response to the gas pedal's position; in Eco mode, you really have to mash the pedal if you want to move, while PWR mode makes it more like most American cars where it's jumpy if you so much as look at the gas pedal. In between is "Normal" mode. There are plenty of Prius owners who hate the car in anything but PWR mode because they like to accelerate fast.
Second, it is a HUGE car on the inside relative to most of my friends' sedans. A good amount of the space is vertical, so it helps if whatever you're carrying is tall or can be stacked. But I've carried 3'x8' sheets of plywood, an 8-foot ladder, or 4 people and backpacking gear for a 4-day wilderness trip. Many people can carry several bicycles inside the car without taking them apart - my wife and I are both very tall, so we have to take off the front wheel of our bikes to fit our bikes in. Out of all my friends, none have cars that can carry any of those things - except one bicycle with the wheels removed, and the handlebars sticking out the window.
Third, I'd say it doesn't really have two power trains; it has one power train of which the gasoline engine and two motor-generators are an integral part. The car would be incapable of driving if any of them are removed, although it'd be easier to remove the gasoline engine if anything. The Prius doesn't have a normal transmission; there are two planetary gearsets that connect the MGs and engine to the wheels. By adjusting the speed and direction of the MGs, pretty much any gear ratio can be obtained. It's sometimes called an "eCVT" because of this, but it could just as easily be called a single-speed transmission. Get rid of the electronic parts of the powertrain, and you'd have to put in a transmission instead to replace it. Also, you'd lose the regeneration abilities of being a hybrid. Of course, if you remove the engine, you'd have to use a much larger battery instead - and even then, the Prius motors are not designed for high-speed use (over 45 mph, the engine has to be spinning to keep the motors from over-revving; I think the limit is about 60 mph in the plug-in variant of the Prius). So both halves of the powertrain are really required for it to work, much less for it to work as efficiently as it does.
That's not to say it's a car for everybody - and indeed, if your choices come down to a Tesla anything or a Prius, I'd go with the Tesla any day unless you plan on regularly exceeding its range in areas where high-speed charging is not available. But it's a good choice of cars for many people.
That said, I'm not surprised that hybrid sales occasionally have a down year - but the trend still seems to be pretty positive. Even though they mention share dropping from 2009 to 2010, the hybrid share is still up about 15% since 2009, at about 3.2% of all cars. Meanwhile, EVs are starting to take off, and often catch the attention of the same eco-minded type that was purchasing the early hybrid models years ago. Still, they only amount to about 0.6% of all vehicle sales. But I don't think hybrids are a long-term solution, just like gas cars aren't either. Unless we start synthesizing gasoline from something other than oil, we'll need to find an alternative fuel sooner or later - whether that means EVs or something else, only time will tell.
All I can say is that I hope Tesla gets other auto makers fired up, otherwise I may have to find a big pile of cash next time I want to buy a car...