The Narrative Fallacy writes "Adversaries of the US in Iraq rely on surprise and apparent randomness to compensate for their lack of organization, technology and firepower but if one could find some method to their madness,, the asymmetric threat could be made significantly less serious, say scientists at The University of Alabama in Huntsville who are developing computer models that identify trends in attacker's behaviors. "Some trends from these attacks show important day-to-day correlations. If we can draw inferences from those correlations, then we may be able to save lives by heightening awareness of possible events or changing the allocation of our security assets to provide more protection." Researchers reviewed the behavior signatures of terrorists on 12,000 attacks between 2003 and mid-2007 to calculate relative probabilities of future attacks on various target types. The goal was not to try to predict exactly when and what type of attack was going to happen next, but rather, which target types were more likely to be attacked next so military commanders can make choices from various options to reduce risk. "Despite many difficulties with the dataset, we did find that our trend analysis very successfully provided enhanced predictive capability when compared to the broader attack rate," said one researcher."
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