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+-   Microsoft Exploit Predictions Right 40% Of Time-> on Thursday November 13 2008, @01:27PM CWmike

Submitted by CWmike on Thursday November 13 2008, @01:27PM
security
CWmike writes "Microsoft today called its first month of predicting whether hackers will create exploit code for its bugs a success — even though the company got its forecast right just 40% of the time for October. 'I think we did really well,' said Mike Reavey, group manager at the Microsoft Security Research Center (MSRC), when asked for a postmortem evaluation of the first cycle of the team's Exploitability Index. 'Four of the [nine] issues that we said where consistent exploit code was likely did have exploit code appear over the first two weeks. And another key was that in no case did we rate something too low." Microsoft's Exploitability Index was introduced last month."
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... though his invention worked superbly -- his theory was a crock of sewage from beginning to end. -- Vernor Vinge, "The Peace War"