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Tech Jobs Projected to Double by 2010 760

netbsd_fan writes "Today's Chicago Tribune has an article that claims that the number of coding jobs will double by 2010, and computer support jobs aren't far behind. It's hard to believe since I just laid off our last two Win32 guys Friday. Could this be a turning point in the labor market?"
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Tech Jobs Projected to Double by 2010

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  • That would be great. In the meantime, I'd be happy to see tech jobs return to their former level, let alone double.
    • by Anonymous Coward
      They are talking about 2010. Not great at all! It is too
      far into the future, and besides, this is just
      another new article, written by a journalists
      who gets payed to write cure things. Even if
      the the experts proposed similar claims, the
      next question is who do they know? And besides,
      they are talking about 2010, who among you will
      be around to tell them if they got it wrong?
      • by cymen ( 8178 ) <cymenvig.gmail@com> on Sunday April 13, 2003 @11:18PM (#5725380) Homepage
        And besides, they are talking about 2010, who among you will be around to tell them if they got it wrong?

        You are absolutely right! I was talking with CmdrTaco about the demographics of the /. readership and the most surprising fact was that 73.852% of the readers are 63 or older! The numbers get even interesting when we consider that 23.82% are 74 or older. Considering how unhealthy the typical /. geek is these elderly monks are living on borrowed time. 10 years from now is practically an infinite time to them and they will surely be buried with their Happy Hacker keyboards, fingers still clenched on the home row, pressing Ctrl-D one final time.

        You're post brings a tear to my eye with the degree of it's relevancy to our community. The age of our readers here is rarely discussed and these demographics have not been shared with our regular readers, who seem to assume the typical /.'er is 17-35, but it is time that the truth comes out. You are a shining light, a beacon of hope, to those that will not make it another 10 years. Please spend your time with the /.'ers as they will surely have little more but your kinds words to live for in these dark days.
    • by TeknoDragon ( 17295 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:24PM (#5724761) Journal
      heh, I was wondering... so that means that by 2010 there will finally be demand for the supply of it & tech workers that was created in the 90's?

      infoweek article on IT unemployment (nice graph) [informationweek.com]
    • by DASHSL0T ( 634167 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:32PM (#5724809) Homepage
      Except if your organization originally had a 100 IT person department, and now you have 40, doubling will still leave you with a loss of 20% seven years down the road.

      Lies, lies and damn statistics, I say.
    • by k-0s ( 237787 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:49PM (#5724898) Homepage
      Amen, I'd be happy if the tech sector grew by just one job as long as that job has my name on it.
    • the truth (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Sure, tech jobs will probably double in the next seven years. But tech salaries will probably be halved.

      Face it, my six-figure-salary career is going to become the equivalent to that of your average librarian, cashier or even mechanic.

      I think the mechanic analogy is probably the best. There is little difference between your average mechanic and your average computer/software/techie engineer type - other than one is physical and the other is not.

      Does your average mechanic make six figures? Hell no. Is you
    • by nigel.selke ( 665251 ) on Monday April 14, 2003 @03:02AM (#5726306) Homepage

      It's interesting to note how many people from the United States on /. and other boards are complaining about the lack of jobs in the tech industry. It seems that although jobs elsewhere pay less, there are far more of them.

      Here in South Africa, the tech industry hasn't been through a so-called slump, in fact, the job market is probably better now than it was in 1999. The difference I see, though, is that most people here are talking about programming jobs. Going by pure numbers, most tech jobs here are either in networking or hardware.

      Even at our company, which isn't a tech company by any means, we have 4 full time techs working on the in-house system (post-sales, customer relations, operations, call tracking) written (mainly) in Java and Python, and doing general network/system admin.

      Friends that I met at Unisa [unisa.ac.za] who graduated with Computer Science degrees haven't by and large had any problems finding jobs, although it seems that more experienced people are sought after in more advanced areas. But the so-called lower-end jobs (and yes, I know that there are more advanced sub-divisions of each of these, but I'm talking about entry-level to mid-level) - Networking, System Admin, Hardware, Support - are pretty easy to get into.

    • ...But they'll all be farmed out to India... and for a lot less than I'd be willing to take to relocate to India...

      Although, perhaps I can make a lot of money building the network backbone to India that will allow this to happen on a large scale.
  • by RoC MasterMind ( 576689 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:46PM (#5724509) Homepage
    But I need a job now!!!
  • Good news? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Feztaa ( 633745 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:46PM (#5724510) Homepage
    Double of nothing is still nothing. Sorry.
  • Woo (Score:2, Insightful)

    by wishes ( 129587 )
    I think I shall change my job in that case ;]

    They may have a point. But computer users are becomming smarter and smarter.
    Back in the day people charged out heaps just to plug a computer in or reinstall it. Nowdays everyones a computer technition and can do it themselves.

    Surely they will just invent some AI version of software with a nice point anc click interface (more so than there is now) that creates all the software you need!
    • Re:Woo (Score:5, Funny)

      by primus_sucks ( 565583 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:55PM (#5724585)
      That's why I do AI programming. I figure the last employed programmer will be the person programming a robot to program!
      • Re:Woo (Score:3, Informative)

        by rtaylor ( 70602 )
        Even if a robot can do the programming (isn't that what we have now? Caffeine powered robots?) someone still has to tell the robots what to write -- and thats not something your typical MBA can do. There is a huge difference between a current business requirement (MBA) and well designed extensible software for tomorrows business requirements (that the MBA hasn't figured out yet).
      • Re:Woo (Score:5, Funny)

        by mrseigen ( 518390 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:35PM (#5724828) Homepage Journal
        I can only imagine your outrage at being fired by your own code.
    • They may have a point. But computer users are becomming smarter and smarter.

      Only to a point, people are more comfertable with computers and a increasing number are becoming quite proficient (ie power users and programmers) just due to sheer numbers but the biggest difference is the software is a whole lot smarter.

      Surely they will just invent some AI version of software with a nice point anc click interface (more so than there is now) that creates all the software you need!

      And just what instructions wi
  • by aquarian ( 134728 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:47PM (#5724513)
    Not that I have a problem with that...
  • Great... (Score:3, Funny)

    by bsharitt ( 580506 ) <bridget@NoSpAM.sharitt.com> on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:47PM (#5724517) Journal
    Great this after I just changed my major away from computer engineering.
    • They are telling me I should go into "Organizational Leadership and Supervision" to get a "head start" on the though IT job market. I'm still not sure what I'm doing, but better be deciding soon.
  • Indians (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:47PM (#5724524)
    In other news, the population of Indians and Chinese living in the U.S. is expected to double by 2010.

    Hmmmmm....
    • Re:Indians (Score:3, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      I'm moving to pakistan and becoming a taxi cab driver. Then there will be balence to the universe.
  • by Agent Green ( 231202 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:48PM (#5724527)
    Funny how over the last 2 years my department went to a third of its size...from nearly 40 at the height of the boom to only 12...and now it's going to take 7 years to double current numbers? Looks like a lot of techies are gonna be out of jobs for awhile to come!

    My company is moving locations and intends on laying off everyone who doesn't want to relocate...let me tell ha how excited I am!

    I was a fool for thinking that an ISP job was a stable gig...
    • by OffTheRack ( 551671 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:17PM (#5724715)
      I would not be surprised if programming job opportunities doubled in less than 3 years!

      The catch is, you need to move to a third word country to get one of those new programming jobs, or at least be willing to work at 3rd world rates.

      That is the unintended consequence of connecting everyone everywhere. Now employers can hire anyone from anywhere.
      • by Bastian ( 66383 )
        That is the unintended consequence of connecting everyone everywhere. Now employers can hire anyone from anywhere.

        No, this is a totally intended consequence of integrating the world's markets. Do you really thing stuff like NAFTA was dreamt up as anything but a way for companies to get cheap labor? It certainly hasn't provided any benefits to the citizens of North America w/r/t increasted availability of goods, more stable markets, better market competition, or what have you.

        Cute thing is, if the US tr
      • by frostman ( 302143 )

        or at least be willing to work at 3rd world rates....

        I think you're overstating the case here. Outsourcing isn't just about the third world.

        I'm an American living in Hungary. According to salary.com (at least) my line of work pays between 70-120K per year in the SF Bay Area. That's pretty consistent with what I've made there as a consultant, and what my friends there are making.

        Now consider Budapest. Hardly third-world. About to join the EU. Highly-educated IT workforce, most speaking really good

    • by egarland ( 120202 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @11:42PM (#5725558)
      This article was written to try to get people to buy technology training. In reality I expect most companies to be reducing the staff of their IT departments to try to become profitable again.

      Computer systems these days are built with more redundant and more powerful components that are easier to maintain. Most companies have switched away from the Windows 9x line which saves a awful lot of time dealing with stupid desktop issues. We have also seen the change to web-based software which is getting cheaper and easier to implement and support every day. It is now possible for a small group (3 people or so) to manage a large pool of inexpensive web-servers (20-50) which supports a huge application used by thousands of people. This model is increasingly being used and it works well and saves bundles of money. This, combined with companies new-found zeal for cost cutting will drive the numbers of IT professionals down in the coming years.

      My advice is if you aren't in IT, don't try to get into it unless you are really good with computers. If you are in IT but aren't very good at it, think about finding another career. The future in IT may not be very bright.
    • by Dysan2k ( 126022 ) on Monday April 14, 2003 @03:03AM (#5726314) Homepage
      3 ISP's, 7 years, feel the pain.

      1st one - out of business... Mismanagement
      2nd one - out of business... Horrid Mismanagement
      3rd one - out of business... Illegal Management (bad things happen to those who default on contracts to buy)

      So I figured I needed to go do something else.. A nice change, so to speak. Programming.

      8 months (bought my first house on the 7th) and the economy being as bad as it is causes major loses and sold the company.

      5 months and NO jobs. Construction (which I'm quite capable of) is not open due to the large influx of Mexican workers. Programming jobs are being taken by internal promotion. Admins are sticking where they exist. And the joke that is unemployment is more than flipping burgers, less than cost of living. So I now have to sell my home, move BACK in with my parents, and become the one thing I swore I'd never be. (No mystery here folks, Unemployed and living at home being older than 21.)

      I'd go back to acedemia, but frankly I'd have no way of supporting myself even IF I could afford tuition an books. Could get a loan, but oddly enough, I know more degreed individuals out of work than non-degreed.

      And now we're at war. Is there any way to incarcerate every stinking politician in the country for gross incompetance?
  • hrmm (Score:2, Insightful)

    by 2057 ( 600541 )
    because of this prediction more people will go into computer related fields, and thus the job market will again "suck".
  • Some math (Score:5, Funny)

    by buyo-kun ( 664999 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:48PM (#5724538)
    More Coders = More Bugs More Bugs = More Tech Support Guys More Tech Support Guys = More Confused People More Confused People = More Montiors with fist sized holes in them
  • Wow (Score:5, Funny)

    by typedef ( 139123 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:50PM (#5724549)
    I hope that I have enough Top Ramen to last until then.
    • Re:Wow (Score:3, Funny)

      by Tablizer ( 95088 )
      I hope that I have enough Top Ramen to last until then.

      I already went thru all my top ramen. I just finished working my way thru the middle ramen, and now am into the bottom ramen. I've truely hit bottom.
  • We're hiring... [geminisecurity.com]
  • windows programmers (Score:4, Interesting)

    by primus_sucks ( 565583 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:52PM (#5724567)
    It's hard to believe since I just laid off our last two Win32 guys Friday.

    My guess is that the demand for windows specific programmers will be essentially non-existant in the future. Cross-platform apps will undoubtedly rule everywhere, even the desktop.
    • yea and linux on the desktop will take off people will like open office.. I support peopel who bearly know how to use windows i.e what is the start button.... they have worked here for 3+ freekin years wtf have they been doing... all i want is for someone to know the 1st layer.. but to ask them to know the 1st layer on kde and windows is too much...
  • by RecoveredMarketroid ( 569802 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:56PM (#5724587)
    Despite the current situation, I don't think anyone could realistically predict a long-term deterioration in the tech industry. Regardless of the whether your Nortel stock is doing well or not, technology is just too important to today's economy, underlying business activity in nearly every sector. If it can drive down cost, or provide a competitive advantage, it will be valuable longterm. I'm sure that I'm preaching to the choir here, but technology isn't going away...

    Further, as worker productivity increases in the longer term, while natural resources become scarce, it seems clear that an increasing proportion of our output will have to consist of services and 'intangible' (e.g., information) products.

    Either that, or we'll all be unemployed and starving...
    • Despite the current situation, I don't think anyone could realistically predict a long-term deterioration in the tech industry.

      They didn't predict the current slump very well.

      technology is just too important to today's economy

      I think everyone agrees with that more or less, but what is not predictable are things like offshore outsources, H-1B visa congress bribery levels, etc.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • This sucks for us. (Score:4, Informative)

    by HanzoSan ( 251665 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:59PM (#5724611) Homepage Journal

    Jobs are about to double, but not in the USA!. Tech support and programming jobs around the world will double by 2010, and even if it does double in the USA, the more it doubles the lower our salaries.

    I'm sorry but soon programmer will be what teenage kids do, like mc donalds of today.
    • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:16PM (#5724711)
      Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by yog ( 19073 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @11:49PM (#5725597) Homepage Journal
      Well that's an interesting prediction, but it doesn't take into account all factors in this equation. Consider the economic ramifications of economic growth combined with outsourcing of IT work.

      As the economy recovers and new technologies are adopted, companies will develop products to take advantage of them. Customers will enjoy cheaper and easier access to their bank accounts, more efficient processing of their credit applications, etc.

      Though offshore programmers benefit greatly from this expansion, the U.S. economy as a whole also benefits from cost savings and general growth in production and consumption. Jobs will be created, inevitably.

      Companies continue to hire locally in order to have a local tech person who can interface with the offshore team. Since more companies are profitable, more local techies will get hired.

      Another point to consider is that as demand grows, very gradually we will see salaries rising in India. They have a lot of people but only so many of them can get into a university or otherwise learn the necessary skills to do software engineering. Unlike the U.S., there are not university seats for everyone who wants one. It will take a long time for costs to become prohibitive but it's likely that the difference between offshore and domestic labor costs will shrink somewhat, and the benefits of domestic labor will begin to outweigh the higher price.

      Finally I would suggest that American programmers need to get creative and find better ways to earn a buck, such as to associate themselves with a high demand technology or product line, e.g. Oracle Applications, .NET or J2EE middleware tools, etc., and market themselves as go-to people who can get a company's system up and running. Maybe they will farm out the grunt work to an offshore developer, maybe not. But you've got to get out of a commodity market .

      Just some ideas. I myself am struggling to find my next consulting contract and I'm likely going to move away from coder-for-hire to more of a product development mode. It's a tough market right now but I think there will be some great opportunities in the next 3-5 years.

  • by JBark ( 170224 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @08:59PM (#5724618) Homepage Journal
    I graduated with a Computer Engineering degree at the end of Decemeber, and after three long months of searching, I finally got a great job and am starting tomorrow. According to some of the recruiters I've talked to in the past couple of weeks, they are starting to see an increase in the number of jobs available in the field. If I can get a job with little real world experience in a town that has had hundreds (maybe thousand) of layoffs in the tech field, things must be looking up.
    • I just found a position after two years of searching. The pay is less than I was making 10 years ago, but its a real good job, and one that's not likely to go away any time soon.

      I found in my job search that my longevity in the field was a problem. In general, years in the saddle directly translates into dollars. So its actually easier for younger less experienced yet well exposed candidates to land jobs because their lower cost.

      So I would go in for a job that was a perfect fit for my experience, plus I could bring so much to the team. But never heard a thing. After talking with headhunters and other recruiters, it was clear that companies were looking at dollars first. In fact, I almost didn't get the job I have because they didn't feel that I would be happy with what they'd be willing to pay. This is true, but hey, its better than the nothing* I was making before!

      In other news, the people I know in the VC arena say we're in year three of a six year slump in the IT industry.

      Its great that you found a good job right out of school.

      *Actually, panning $25/hr doing odd contracting work, when I could get it, and only then if I could get the client to pay up!

    • by chunkwhite86 ( 593696 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:48PM (#5724896)
      I graduated with a Computer Engineering degree at the end of Decemeber, and after three long months of searching, I finally got a great job and am starting tomorrow. According to some of the recruiters I've talked to in the past couple of weeks, they are starting to see an increase in the number of jobs available in the field. If I can get a job with little real world experience in a town that has had hundreds (maybe thousand) of layoffs in the tech field, things must be looking up.

      Yeah, but are you making $30k - $40k a year, or are they paying you a real salary?

      I've seen many tech ads looking for "highly qualified, senior level positions, 10+ years experience, blah blah blah" that only pay $36k a year. They are banking on someone who got laid off and is desperate to take the position. I don't know about you, but I don't work for peanuts. BTW I found a new job 9 weeks after getting laid off that paid substantially more than what I was making before! Good jobs are out there, you just have to look harder for them these days.
      • No offense, but if you think 30-40k a year is peanuts, you aren't going to be getting many jobs in the near future, which is good because maybe they'll give them to me. Technology is not the instant road to riches that the world thought it was in the 90's, nor is there the shortage of candidates that there was prior to that(though I've been hearing radio ads claiming otherwise from people who want to teach you how to do the jobs in two years), because of this, companies are treating tech as just another par
      • I'm graduating (also with a Computer Engineering degree, mine from UC Santa Barbara) this June and after searching for the last 6 months I just landed one a couple weeks ago, starting in July. Pays SIGNIFIGANTLY more than 30-40k. Very small company (in contrast to my internships since 1998 for Northrop Grumman), but they survived the dot-com crash and seem to be managed well and are making lots of money even in the cut-throat chip design world.

        Firmware/embedded systems programming are where it's at.

        On t
      • Yeah, but are you making $30k - $40k a year, or are they paying you a real salary?

        Sorry, but $30-40k for a fresh graduate is pretty reasonable [themint.org]. The problem is that people experienced the late 90s job market as it was how things always were, but in fact it was an abberation. A recent graduate should be looking for experience right now, only start worrying about salary once you are established. The first 3 years of everyone's career will usually suck in pay terms. 5 years in, and you'll be glad you went for
    • I graduated with a Computer Engineering degree at the end of Decemeber, and after three long months of searching, I finally got a great job.....If I can get a job with little real world experience....

      The thing is, many places *don't* value IT experience that much. Thus, if you are under the delusion that you will keep going up and up over time, think again (unless maybe you are unionized in a gov job or soemthing). IT worker market value tends to peak around 5 years of experience in my observation. Sure,
  • Hopefully other people out there are as skeptical of this as I am. While there is no doubt that tech fields will rapidly expand over the next 7 years, people are clammoring for good news of any kind right now. Note the "Saving Private Lynch" effect; one young girl is found alive amidst the chaos of our Gulf "War" and suddenly we hear about her ad nauseum. I support the troops and her courage under fire and capture, but hopefully the military can use some of the really wacko media folks as shock troops.
  • by wotevah ( 620758 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:03PM (#5724644) Journal
    We are experiencing what will be later known as the beginning of the second tech bubble.
  • by zzzmarcus ( 183118 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:04PM (#5724650)
    Sure, I hope there are more tech jobs in the future, but does anyone still trust these 'economists?'

    Shouldn't they have predicted the initial tech fallout? Almost none did. In fact, when have they ever been right?

    Maybe I'm just too cynical, but I'll believe this one whan I see it.

    • Haven't you heard? Line up 100 economists behind each other and you still won't reach a conclusion.

      My best friend is an economist actually, he plays everything safe and tries to read everything before coming to any sort of conclusion. Economists don't work independently, they throw a hypothesis within the group then do research to see the likelihood of the hypothesis happening. They have all sorts of models going on at the same time and select the one the fits best.
  • I too recently got rid of the last of the WIn32 guys. Funny -- they *refused* to learn/understand Linux, BSD, etc.

    I am hiring though. Unix knowledge a *MUST*.
  • Banker at a bank board meeting - You know what would be neat? If we could sucker a new batch of people into putting their house down into borrowing money for startups, it payed off last time... you got a point there, banks profitted 900 million last time from dot com startups.. yeah, my cousins a repo man, and he's having a helluva time
  • by hhknighter ( 629353 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:10PM (#5724681)
    I see it

    This almost falls in the same category as economists telling the mass that the market will recover in 2 months, for the past year.

    Given, I am a CS grad with no job, and my skills are sub-par compared to the average slashdot crowd. I do see a massive amount of CS/CE people. Their numbers get greater every year.

    On top of that, the demand for CS jobs might increase, but what's to keep a global company (which most companies aim for) from hiring someone from India who will work for 1/10th of what you should be getting?

    When technology is this advanced, location and distance does not matter. And considering the amount of people they have over there, willing to work for so little, tech jobs doubling really don't apply to us at all, do they?
  • by dillon_rinker ( 17944 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:10PM (#5724682) Homepage
    Zero is expected to double in value by 2010 (absolutely true! ask your math professor!) and Bush is expected to be out of the Presidency in 2010. In other words...twice small potatoes is STILL small potatoes, and it's not soon enough to make any practical difference.

  • underlying shortage (Score:2, Interesting)

    by pphrdza ( 635063 )
    The "shortage" has always been there, as it has in other sectors. It's the natural growth of the sector plus baby boomers who are quickly reaching retirement age, with a smaller pool of experienced people to replace them.

    These jobs aren't going to suddenly appear. They're showing up as the bulge of baby boomers disappears.

  • Yeah, you can hire 2 Indian/Chinese/Armenian/etc. programmers and still save more than half of one American programmer's salary.
  • by erik umenhofer ( 782 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:19PM (#5724732) Homepage
    Huge amounts of indian workers flowed into the country with H1B [immigration.gov] immigration status. In short, if you can program or do tech work you can live in the US as long as you work in the industry (or your h1b ends). This is factor in why no one can get a job in the silicon valley area. Lots of people were displaced. After all the H1B's end, a lot of people will have to head back to India. This will open up a lot of jobs. This isn't like 20-30 jobs, it's like hundreds of thousands. I'm living in the bay area and it's funny cause jobs are so hard to get now. Entry level stuff requires like 5 years experience (isn't entry level about not having experience?) It's a rough time for some of us!
    • After all the H1B's end, a lot of people will have to head back to India. This will open up a lot of jobs.

      Whoever said it will end? It is a continuous program. It might drop down a bit at the end of the year, but greedbags are lobbying to extend it, inventing "labor shortages" with phoney statistics just like they always do.
  • Really, how accurate can the estimation be? You can try to get as many statistics as you want, you can model the job market using the best mathematical tools and then what. The next war/liberation/terrorist attack/corporate fraud scandal/change in fiscal policies/inmigration or tax regulations will make all your wonderful computations be ridiculously wrong.

    That's my opinion of course. Any experts around? Can anybody point at an article written 7 years ago that predicts the end of the bubble?

    My $0.02

  • IT is doomed. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by nightsweat ( 604367 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:27PM (#5724780)
    I've come to the conclusion that IT is a dead end, at least IT as we've known it.

    The traditional approach of in-house techs for companies doesn't work in a large company becasue the numbers people want to mess with the formula. They see the potential for consolidation which reduces the number of peope needed to support your network. Then they see cheaper programmers available in India or China or any one of several countries with decent education and low pay. So they export those jobs.

    Eventually, they see a few ex-techies managing the people who used to be hot stuff making too much money to repeat decisions made by the senior management, and replace those with accounting types.

    Remember in most companies it is the overriding goal of Finance to reduce costs. The other parts of the business bring in the profits. One way to reduce costs is to standardize jobs so they can be filled by less talented people with lower earnings.

    There will always be a tech industry, but I'm not so sure with outsourcing and globalization that there will be a large American tech industry. The trained monkey jobs may be the last few left.

    And so you know who's talking, I'm a VP of IT who worked his way up from general geek over the last 18 years. I've seen the trends play out and I just don't feel good about the future of our industry.

    • Re:IT is doomed. (Score:4, Insightful)

      by SlashdotLemming ( 640272 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @10:03PM (#5724979)
      And so you know who's talking, I'm a VP of IT who worked his way up from general geek over the last 18 years. I've seen the trends play out and I just don't feel good about the future of our industry.

      Why am I picturing the stereotypical old guy running around with the "The End Is Near" sign :)

      For once, someone makes up a rosy story about the future (remember that every projection about the future comes straight outta someone's ass) and its still all gloom and doom here. Global capitalism means that more people can get even richer. Anyone can make it, but most seem content with boo-hooing about how the system is keeping them down.
    • by machine of god ( 569301 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @10:14PM (#5725035)
      IT is doomed. BSD is doomed. Sun is doomed. America is doomed. Sun is not doomed anymore. DOOM!! DOOOM! DOOOOOOOM! Ok, Sun's doomed again. And so is IT, still.
    • If I understand correctly, you replace the experienced people, with recent graduates. This lowers salaries. However, does this really reduce costs?

      In reviewing code written by less experience co-workers, I have seen obvious improvements for readability, maintenance, debuggability, and performance (performance is secondary - except where it is needed). Personally, I review my own code for these type of improvements and when I can, I improve it.

      I will surmise that it may reduce costs over the next 3 mo
  • by Wansu ( 846 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:35PM (#5724827)

    Now they're projecting a big turn-around in the labor market 7 years from now. Next they'll start wailing about a severe shortage of labor.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:43PM (#5724871)
    This is pure ITAA propoganda. This story comes out every year in a slightly different form. Even at the height of tech layoffs they were babbling on about how many IT jobs there were and how there wasn't enough workers to fill them all. The reason for tell these lies to so they can get congress to expand the H1B and H1 visa programs. The H1B limit falls back to 65,000 this fall so they are starting to put out these articles to lay the basis for claiming a shortage and the need for more importation of foreign workers.
  • by diabolus_in_america ( 159981 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:45PM (#5724882) Journal
    Carefully read the article, and you will see that the majority of quotes deal with "expanding your skill set." That's good advice, even in the best of times. But the quotes are coming from persons who directly benefit from unemployed IT workers going back to school or testing for certification, so-called workplace and staffing consultants.

    Times are tough all over, and you can't begrudge these people for trying to create business for themselves, but in these tough economic times, it seems irresponsible for the Chicago Tribune to report this as news. The article represents nothing more than opinion which a lot of people currently without work will misinterpret as fact and act upon, waiting for the predicted boom to occur.

    Luckily, I am still employed, but I know that if the current economic conditions don't change for the better, I will be looking for work in a few months myself. It seems to me that one of the most irresponsible, even stupid, things that I could do now is to dip into my savngs to "improve my skill set" because a bunch of experts with books to sell have convinced the Chicago Tribune that there is another high tech boom just around the corner!

    My mortgage doesn't care how up to date my skill set is. Neither does the grocery bill each week. I sympathize with those who are looking for work. I'll probably be doing the same thing in a few months, and I think the smartest thing any IT worker can do right now is prepare to get through the here and now, and not these boom times that are part of imagined future.
    • Dude! If I knew I was likely to get axed in a couple of months I'd be thinking about enhancing MY skillset. It is a tough job market out there. Finding a niche where the hordes aren't and learning it sounds like a survival trait. Webmonkeys, for example, are a dime a dozen but there are a few ecological niches less crowded. I'd be researching which ones are doing better than average in the area and learning em.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:52PM (#5724915)
    When I started at my current place, out site had 22 people (including manager) supporting 600 people and probably 800 devices. That was 5 years ago. Three years ago we went down to approximately 9 people including the manager. This was not a surprise because the company was a contracting company which went down in business. It lost almost half it's staff by that time but maintained most of the devices. Money was almost non-existant and new PCs were a dream in most people's eyes. About 2 1/2 years ago we bid for a big project and gradually gained back 200 people to bring the user population back up to 500. What happened to the IT group? Nothing.. in fact, if two people hadn't left we would have had to lay off 1 or 2 more. Odd, considering the amount of work just increased 40%. Cut to beginning 2002... we are given extra money to hire two more help desk staffing contractors.. renewing tentatively every two months. Cut to 2nd quarter 2003.. those two help desk positions are now full time. We have 10 people. And now there will be double the positions? I don't think so... People learned and won't go down that road. If they can do less with what they have now, they'll keep it that way. And if they do.. it returns the staffing levels back to the way it was 15 years previously... now.. how screwed up is that??
    • by jmorris42 ( 1458 ) <jmorris@[ ]u.org ['bea' in gap]> on Sunday April 13, 2003 @11:32PM (#5725487)
      Yea, because all those devices are now working and everyone understands them. But if you are foolish to think we have hit the end of development in IT you should find a new field. Something new, strange and must have will appear in a couple of years. It always does, and when it shows up everyone will start buying and hiring again.

      Bill Gates might be evil but nobody thinks he is stupid and yet he missed the importance of the Internet until it was almost too late. Events like that have happened several times in this industry and history hasn't stopped. And it will probably be NOW, while the world is worrying about other 'important' things that the next world shaking invention is working it's way out a garage somewhere. Be ready for it when it happens and be an early adopter and expert on it.
  • Some Clarification (Score:5, Interesting)

    by ObligatoryUserName ( 126027 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @09:57PM (#5724948) Journal
    I think there's some confusion because most people aren't going to register to read the article and because of the way this thing was written up, so I'll try and clear some things up.

    In response to the question asked in the write-up, "Could this be a turning point in the labor market?" - no. This isn't talking about some specific turning point (and indeed most posts are currently noting that people feel the current workforce is so diminished that a doubling of jobs isn't much growth at all); rather this article is talking about a general demographic trend. We're entering the time period where the baby boomers are starting to retire, and the generations that follow after them do not have as large of a population. According to the article, "between now and 2010, for every new member added to the workforce there will be 2.6 new jobs created."

    The title "Tech Jobs Projected to Double by 2010" comes from looking at the table provided at the bottom of the article where it states that the occupation of "Computer software engineers, applications" will grow from a current 380,000 jobs in 2000 to 760,000 jobs in 2010, or 100% growth. Note that that's job growth between 2000 and 2010, not between today and 2010 - so think about employment levels in 2000 instead of today; I know our company was twice as large in 2000 as it is today. The table actually lists 9 different jobs that I would call "Tech Jobs" that have pretty healthy growth rates - the tech slant in the article is that while all jobs are growing (in part due to baby boomer retirement) technology jobs are growing faster than any other jobs.

    The implication of the article is that because this job growth rate will lead to a tighter employment market than was seen in the 1990's we will someday soon (well, someday before 2010) see the type of high wage growth and high starting wages in the tech industry that were a signature of the 1990's boom. All due to supply and demand in a labor market where people are retiring faster than new people enter the market.

    My personal concern is that as this occurs the cost of Social Security will skyrocket (due to all those retiring folks), and if our federal budget keeps going the way it is we're going to end up with very high taxes that could offset the benefits of higher wages. (Of course, this will end up screwing the poor more than anyone else, of course, because payroll taxes aren't progressive - everyone pays the same percent no matter what.)

    On a positive note (for those of us who call ourselves employees), this article should be a wake up call to employers to start treating their workers well, or they might have major problems in 7 years. With all the blogs, messageboards, and websites (F*ed Company comes to mind) that are storing a record of how companies treat their workers, you will end up paying tomorrow for the sins you commit today.

    • by cpeterso ( 19082 )

      My personal concern is that as this occurs the cost of Social Security will skyrocket (due to all those retiring folks), and if our federal budget keeps going the way it is we're going to end up with very high taxes that could offset the benefits of higher wages.

      I think most people would agree that the US's current Social Security program is non-sustainable. I pay Social Security, but I don't expect to see any of that money when I retire in 30+ years. Fortunately, I am a pessimist and I'm planning for r
  • Correction! (Score:5, Funny)

    by telstar ( 236404 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @10:15PM (#5725042)
    This just in:
    We regret to inform you that due to a programming error, the actual number of new coding jobs will be 1/14th their current level. In light of this revalation, the two coders responsible for this error have been fired.
  • by brokeninside ( 34168 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @10:29PM (#5725113)
    I don't know which publication the numbers in the article are based on, but the US Bureau of Labor Statistics predicted last year [bls.gov] that Computer Programming positions would increase 16% (about the same rate that they predict the economy in general is expected to grow) and Software Engineering positions will increase by 95%.

    A computer programmer per the BLS, will:

    Convert project specifications and statements of problems and procedures to detailed logical flow charts for coding into computer language. Develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information. May program web sites.


    A software engineer for applications per the BLS, will:

    Develop, create, and modify general computer applications software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions. Design software or customize software for client use with the aim of optimizing operational efficiency. May analyze and design databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team. Exclude "Computer Hardware Engineers" (17-2061).


    And a software engineer for systems will:

    Research, design, develop, and test operating systems-level software, compilers, and network distribution software for medical, industrial, military, communications, aerospace, business, scientific, and general computing applications. Set operational specifications and formulate and analyze software requirements. Apply principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis.


    The BLS also mentions that a job as a software engineer is only likely with at least a bachelor's degree in a related discipline.
  • by jonr ( 1130 ) on Sunday April 13, 2003 @11:44PM (#5725569) Homepage Journal
    I took course in heavy machinery controlling (Cranes, Bulldozers, Payloaders etc...) and I expect to make just as much. Paid overtime, what a luxury! :> J.
  • by KC7GR ( 473279 ) on Monday April 14, 2003 @12:25AM (#5725785) Homepage Journal
    At the risk of sounding cynical, isn't that exactly the same thing that was said in the late 90's, shortly before the dot-bomb?

    I will believe it when I see it.

  • by evanbd ( 210358 ) on Monday April 14, 2003 @02:23AM (#5726156)
    Economists have successfully predicted 8 of the past 5 recessions.
  • by Billly Gates ( 198444 ) on Monday April 14, 2003 @03:48AM (#5726425) Journal
    ....while the American market shrinks due to CEO's looking to cut costs anyway possible. I heard in India that the market is exploding and Bombay is looking like Silcon Valley in the late 1990's with ad's everywhere incouraging the local population to apply. Oddly for some reason almost all of the companies are American or Indian outsourcing companies with American customers. Even Sun Microsystems, Microsoft, and IBM are now laying off American workers and replacing them with cheap Indians.

    The gartner group estimates that 38% of all IT jobs currently are outsourced to oversea's comapnies and that is expecting to grow over 50% during 2004!

    Its going to get alot worse in the future as the remaining companies who have "expensive" American workers will feel the pinch of competition from those who outsourced and now sell there products cheaper.

    • You need to be careful on what you mean by 38% outsourcing. A lot of that is outsourcing American IT jobs in America. While India has grown, it is not yet that big.

      Further, based on direct contacts with Indian outsourcing firms, there are two other phenomena of interest:

      1. Indian outsourcers are hiring American front-ends.

      2. Indian outsourcers are starting to do their own outsourcing as the Indian labor pool becomes more expensive.

      Things that are outsourced tend to be the more "mechanical" jobs, requ
  • by swb ( 14022 ) on Monday April 14, 2003 @07:26AM (#5726961)
    It has a rather depressing article about three middle-age professionals who have been unemployed for several years. Two have technology backgrounds, although only one appears to have anything approaching a hands-on technology job.

    Regardless, the whole personal downward spiral was presented, including ugly spousal relationships, disappearing financial futures, McJobs, and so on.

    One guy had a job as some kind of "New Media/New Economy" guru, one guy had a PhD in physical chemistry but became an "IT Consultant" and another guy was a banker.

    The banker was in the best situation, kids college funds and his retirement were pretty squared away, it was mainly maintaining his current standard of living that was at risk.

    The New Media/Economy guy (who has a set of computer books, "Einstein's Manuals" or something, written pre-Dummies) seems fairly finished. He's working at the Gap for $10 and it seems unlikely that his particular speciality will ever be revived.

    The IT Consultant was hard to judge. He's obviously smart (PhD), but what kind of an IT Consultant is he? He was one of those guys that moved into IT in the 90s from another tech field and probably got pretty advanced positions due to his educational background and general intelligence relative to what was available in the job market now. The bummer for him is that he's looking for those same, $150K jobs and they're gone forever. If he was looking for techmonkey work he might do better, but it wouldn't support the $2.5k mortgage.

    What I can't decide is if the economy is permanently shrunk or if the "new economy" portion + excessive profits part only. It's scary, anyway.
  • by msouth ( 10321 ) on Monday April 14, 2003 @10:57AM (#5728514) Homepage Journal
    some time before 2010, the market will have been reduced to a single programmer. he will threaten to quit unless he gets help, so they will re-hire the last guy they had laid off, doubling the number of tech workers.

"An idealist is one who, on noticing that a rose smells better than a cabbage, concludes that it will also make better soup." - H.L. Mencken

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