Cognitive Machines Help Decision-Making 222
Roland Piquepaille writes "At Sandia National Laboratories, new "smart" machines can accurately infer your intents and help you to take better decisions or avoid mistakes. They could change in a near future how we interact with computers, according to this news release. The team who developed the concept associated cognitive psychologists and robotics researchers. The Sandia team thinks that "it's entirely possible that these cognitive machines could be incorporated into most computer systems produced within 10 years." This summary contains more details, including a photo of a "Sandia software developer operating a simulation trainer while a cognitive model of the software runs simultaneously.""
Slashdotted? (Score:5, Informative)
Over the past five years a team led by Sandia cognitive psychologist Chris Forsythe has been developing cognitive machines that accurately infer user intent, remember experiences with users and allow users to call upon simulated experts to help them analyze situations and make decisions.
"In the long term, the benefits from this effort are expected to include augmenting human effectiveness and embedding these cognitive models into systems like robots and vehicles for better human-hardware interactions," says John Wagner, manager of Sandia's Computational Initiatives Department. "We expect to be able to model, simulate and analyze humans and societies of humans for Department of Energy, military and national security applications."
Synthetic human
The initial goal of the work was to create a "synthetic human" -- software program/computer -- that could think like a person.
"We had the massive computers that could compute the large amounts of data, but software that could realistically model how people think and make decisions was missing," Forsythe says.
There were two significant problems with modeling software. First, the software did not relate to how people actually make decisions. It followed logical processes, something people don't necessarily do. People make decisions based, in part, on experiences and associative knowledge. In addition, software models of human cognition did not take into account organic factors such as emotions, stress, and fatigue -- vital to realistically simulating human thought processes.
In an early project Forsythe developed the framework for a computer program that had both cognition and organic factors, all in the effort to create a "synthetic human."
Follow-on projects developed methodologies that allowed the knowledge of a specific expert to be captured in the computer models and provided synthetic humans with episodic memory -- memory of experiences -- so they might apply their knowledge of specific experiences to solving problems in a manner that closely parallels what people do on a regular basis.
Strange twist
Forsythe says a strange twist occurred along the way.
"I needed help with the software," Forsythe says. "I turned to some folks in Robotics, bringing to their attention that we were developing computer models of human cognition."
The robotics researchers immediately saw that the model could be used for intelligent machines, and the whole program emphasis changed. Suddenly the team was working on cognitive machines, not just synthetic humans.
Work on cognitive machines took off in 2002 with a contract from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to develop a real-time machine that can infer an operator's cognitive processes. This capability provides the potential for systems that augment the cognitive capacities of an operator through "Discrepancy Detection." In Discrepancy Detection, the machine uses an operator's cognitive model to monitor its own state and when there is evidence of a discrepancy between the actual state of the machine and the operator's perceptions or behavior, a discrepancy may be signaled.
Early this year work began on Sandia's Next Generation Intelligent Systems Grand Challenge project. "The goal of this Grand Challenge is to significantly improve the human capability to understand and solve national security problems, given the exponential growth of information and very complex environments," says Larry Ellis, the principal investigator. "We are integrating extraordinary perceptive techniques with cognitive systems to augment the capacity of analysts, engineers, war fighters, critical decision makers, scientists and others in crucial jobs to detect and interpret meaningful patterns based on large volumes of data derived from diverse sources."
"O
Re:Slashdotted? (Score:4, Funny)
Looks like he could have used it himself
Re:Slashdotted? (Score:3, Funny)
*shudder*
oh no... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:oh no... (Score:2)
10 years is probably too optimistic, I agree it can be implemented by then, but it'll likely be more annoying than usefull for quite a bit longer.
Re:oh no... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:oh no... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:oh no... (Score:3, Funny)
"Stop singing, HAL!"
"I'm afraid I can't do that Dave. Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer, do..."
Re:oh no... (Score:4, Interesting)
False fears! These are decision support machines they don't do anything.
"I'm sorry Dave, I don't think you should do that"
Re:oh no... (Score:2)
After all the script was written by a human, it's commonly know that human error is always the cause of failure.
Re:oh no... (Score:2)
Re:oh no... (Score:2)
Re:oh no... (Score:2)
Re:oh no... (Score:2)
I wish fiction WAS stranger than fact.
Before I give my opinion on this article... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Before I give my opinion on this article... (Score:3, Funny)
All I need now is my computer to start second-guessing my spelling and grammar... oh, wait, Office already does that....
What will it allow (Score:3, Funny)
Hi! (Score:4, Funny)
Imagine these in voting machines (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Imagine these in voting machines (Score:5, Funny)
Or that's what easily confused old people are for.
Re:Imagine these in voting machines (Score:2)
(only a joke!)
Re:Imagine these in voting machines (Score:2)
Hey oh!
Zing!
Re:Imagine these in voting machines (Score:2)
My post was light-hearted, a joke. Not a troll. Take a deep breath, relax, have no fear, the election of 2000 results aren't going to change because of my little antics.
All better now? Have I set your mind at ease? There we go, now go have a beer and enjoy you
Re:Imagine these in voting machines (Score:2, Funny)
Computer: "Press A if you want Calculon to go to the laser battle in the special effects warehouse. Press B if you want Calculon to re-check his paperwork."
Fry presses A.
Computer: "You have selected B."
Fry: "No I haven't!"
Computer: "I'm almost positive you did!"
(From a pretty old Futurama episode!)
Re:Imagine these in voting machines (Score:3, Informative)
Please, can someone at Microsoft turn all that crap off by default? When I type MPa it's because I mean Mega-Pascals for f#$*'s sake - stop changing it to Mpa! And, despite what you think, t and T are actually two different variables (time, temperature) so stop changing all my bloody t's to T's!!
(PS. for anyone who has gone through this struggle:
To
Re:Imagine these in voting machines (Score:3, Funny)
Or on webpages!
"I noticed you checked that you didn't want to receive special offers from us and every spammer under the sun......errr affiliates. I have fixed your selection and checked all available interests for you. This is what you really want. Might as well check the boxes, we're gonna spam you anyway."
This would help. (Score:4, Funny)
I could use a smart machine to aid my decision making relative to posting on Slashdot.
It could warn me when I'm about to submit a post that's impulsive and likely to be modded down.
Hmm.. maybe I could use one right now.
Open the pod bay doors, HAL. (Score:5, Funny)
Message from HAL@localhost on pts/2 at 09:56
HAL: I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid you can't do that.
EOF
Dave% echo What\'s the problem\? | write HAL
Message from HAL@localhost on pts/2 at 09:57
HAL: I think you know what the problem is just as well as I do.
EOF
It's been said before... (Score:5, Funny)
Confusion. (Score:2)
Pills and Jumping I understand, but how on earth do you kill yourself with Pastry?
/Imagining trying to impale myself with a Praline Riviera.
Heh (Score:4, Funny)
Already been done. (Score:3, Funny)
Clippy (Score:3, Funny)
Noooooooo! Bill! Stop trying to help me.
Re:Clippy (Score:2, Funny)
This is the exact (Score:3, Funny)
US Mil Super Death Robots (Score:5, Funny)
Or if that fails, we can just sprinkle some rust-monster microbes on them.
Re:US Mil Super Death Robots (Score:2)
Gaming (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Gaming (Score:2)
Segfault (Score:3, Funny)
Me thinking hard: I will start the day with a +5 Insightful post or a +5 Funny. Insightful or Funny...Insightful? Funny? No no,funny=>No Karma=>Post insightful comment. But Funny comment=>feel witty and warm inside. Funny, insightful....funny, insightful...*ggnnnn*.
Sandia machine: Seg fault core dumped.
Seriously, more than half the time, I can't even figure out what the next human I meet intends to do. It's really REALLY hard, even if you use the current/past actions as a guide. Face it, we humans are REALLY unpredictable creatures. And women more than men.
Great.. (Score:2, Funny)
Two options ... (Score:3, Funny)
2) Have Slashdot create ever-increasing 'Super' Subscriber options. For an extra $20 you get stories before subscribers do. (followed iteratively by the Super-Super and Super^3 subscriber levels).
This is cool, but not to different from (Score:4, Informative)
Some of the ideas presented in the Anti-Mac interface [acm.org] (Google Cache [google.ca]) guildlines. Also, this reminds me a lot of some research that was done by Douglas Hofstadter and Melanie Mitchell and described in "Fluid Concepts and Creative Analogies [amazon.com]". I highly recommend the book if you are interested in AI.
Beer Goggles (Score:5, Funny)
Me: Dude, I'm so trashed. Is that girl hot?
My Smart MachineNegative. Your beer goggles have wrongly given her a +5 hot. The correct answer is -1 fat.
Re:Beer Goggles (Score:5, Funny)
Result on human decision making? (Score:5, Insightful)
Take for example any simple video game, how about MahJong (the stack of tiles that you have to match pairs on to remove them).
If you play it without the computer's aid, you develop a good eye for it and can do quite well. However, if you constantly hit the 'help' or 'hint' button, you become dependant on it showing you the next move, and never develop the skill for yourself.
To put it in context with other situations:
How many of you need a calculator to find a 10, 15, or 20% tip amount? Worse, how many of you need a calculator to add that extra 3.25 onto your 21.75 bill? I admit, it takes a great bit of effort for me to add simple numbers in my head simply because I don't exersize that ability enough.
Re:Result on human decision making? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Result on human decision making? (Score:2, Insightful)
This judgment thing is really overrated. Just look how happy your fundamentalist Christian / Jew / Muslim / Communist / Capitalist / etc. is.
And they don't have the advantage of Technology.
Re:Result on human decision making? (Score:3, Insightful)
Unless computers are truely intelligent, cognitive systems just make our job faster, and let me apply the tool (software) to solve the problem faster, savin
Re:Result on human decision making? (Score:2)
Well, then.... (Score:2)
I predict that if/when such a technology becomes prevalent, it will greatly reduce the human ability to make decisions.
I, for one, welcome our new decision-making overlords.
Baby Steps (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Baby Steps (Score:3, Interesting)
Exactly, this is nowhere near the level of the current heuristic tool which learns patterns all around it and makes decisions in the best interest of its' supporting system.
I refer to the Brain and the body
Re:Baby Steps (Score:3, Interesting)
Agreed. It always makes me suspicious to see statements like "a combination of software and hardware able to think as a person." News flash: we have to understand our own cognitive processes before we can model them. And we really, really, don't. We don't even have a firm definition for concepts like induction.
That's why "Cognitive Psychology," A.K.A. "Cognitive Neuroscience," is not yet a hard science - it's much closer to psychology or sociology.
Re:Baby Steps (Score:2)
Sounds like MS Clippy (Score:2)
Microsoft Windows/Office already has "intelligent" menus that organize the functions you use most, a spellchecker that rewrites your typing based on what you probably meant to type, and an Office "assistant" that pops up to offer helpful suggestions when you least need them. Sounds like a patent lawsuit in the making to me.
too ambitious? (Score:3, Insightful)
The developers are obviously single (Score:5, Funny)
Re:The developers are obviously single (Score:3, Funny)
So where can I get this cognative computer?
Show me some real evidence (Score:5, Insightful)
What this group has going sounds good, but so have many other things I've read about AI related. How about a video or something to show what it really does? I mean, if they have this mega software then making a video of it in action can't be all that hard can it?
Questions blatantly not answered in these articles:
Voting machines? (Score:4, Funny)
3 Laws of Robotics (Score:2)
If you get Congress involved, it will go from 3 laws of robotics to 8,765 laws of robotics by the time the congressional term is over (with over 6,000 passed in a late-night session just before adjournment with no-one reading the entire thing).
What? Does Clippy count? (Score:2)
In front of him is a computer (don't ask how it is powered). He has started to type in a letter. Clippy appears in the lower-right corner and helpfully says "It looks like you are the Unabomber...."
Intelligent spam filter! (Score:2)
"hmm, the user is male, and judging from the emails his wife's journal entries... I don't think he needs this penis enlargement, or these breast enlargement pills"
I can already hear it. Share and Enjoy! (Score:5, Funny)
Machine: Nutrition and pleasurable sense data. Share and Enjoy.
Arthur: Listen you stupid machine, it tastes filthy! Here take this cup back!
Machine: If you have enjoyed the experience of this drink, why not share it with your friends.
Arthur: Because i want to keep them. Will you try and comprehend what i'm telling you? That drink..
Machine: That drink was individually tailored to meet your personnal requirements for nutrition and pleasure.
Arthur: Ahh! So I'm a masochist on diet am I ?
Machine: Share and enjoy!
Arthur: Oh! Shut up!
Machine: Will that be all ?
Arthur: Yes! No look! It's very very simple, all I want.. Are you listening?
Machine: Yes.
Arthur: Is a cup of tea. Got that ?
Machine: I hear.
Arthur: Good and you know why i want a cup of tea?
Machine: Please wait..
Arthur: What ?
Machine: Computing
Arthur: What are you doing ?
Machine: Attempting to calculate answer to your question, why you want dry leaves in boiling water.
Arthur: Because I happen to like it, that's why.
Machine: Stated reason does not compute with program facts.
Arthur: What are you talking about ?
Ventillation: You heard.
Arthur: What? Who said that?
Ventillation: The ventillation system, you had a go at me yesterday.
Arthur: Yes, because you keep filling the air with cheap perfum.
Ventillation: You like scented air, it's fresh and invigorating.
Arthur: No I do not!
Seriously! No thanks
Pah! Microsoft did this years ago. (Score:2)
They're just copying Microsoft, which did this years ago:
It looks like you're writing a letter.
17 years to go (Score:2, Insightful)
Use it for Slashdot... (Score:2, Funny)
Of course, if that was added, what would be left for the people on Slashdot to talk about?
Need to Interview These Guys! (Score:5, Insightful)
This is some awesome work, but the article is so thin. A real
Anyone care to second the motion?
Hmmm.... (Score:5, Insightful)
However a couple of things are suspicious. First they say "work on cognitive machines took off in 2002". So in less than 2 years they have essentially cracked several of the major problems that AI researchers have been struggling with for at least the last 4 decades? That seems unlikely. Second they seem to think that a combination of software engineering, cognitive psychology and robotics is the silver bullet of AI and that this is a radical new breakthrough. I hate to break it to them but these disciplines have been working together for many years in the AI community. This just isn't new.
Until we have a techical paper that describes their approach in detail and can be peer reviewed I will remain sceptical. AI got overhyped enough as it is, we don't need more extravegant claims and fluff press releases.
Re:Hmmm.... (Score:2)
I agree about that. I'd like to hear more guts, less fluff. Though it is rather fascinating fluff.
But they do seem to have a new idea: attempt to model the cognitive process of your user, notice where the results of your model differ from the user's actual behavior, and use those differences to improve your model.
It's applying concepts of machine learning to a good problem in an inte
Human Nature (Score:2, Insightful)
text selection (Score:5, Insightful)
I have cursed so much because of that "feature"!
I am the apostle of the "leave me the fuck alone" tao of programming: Every application should have one button, in one simple easy to find menu, that would turn off all automatic thingamajigs. Instead of the current system in wich the are 1.5 times as many places in wich you need to select "no/off" as there are annoying automatic features.
When I place my cursor in the middle of a word, its because thats where I want the selection to end!
I don't believe you. (Score:3, Interesting)
I share your frustration totally (sometimes Word expands my selection to include the punctuation at the end of a word... wtf!?). However, when people say "I don't need any help from my computer!" I feel they aren't thinking it through -- your computer is always assisting you to some degree. This notion of "overzealous assistance" is all relative. My mom needs AOL in order to "see the Internet" (it's like fingernails on a chalkb
Re:I don't believe you. (Score:2)
I don't mind that there exists the ability to have a stupid text selecting helper that insists on catching the punctuation along with the word you're trying to select, IF I can turn it off.
You say it could turn off automatically, I want an option to shut it all off manually in one go.
I would yell "leave me the fuck alone!" to clippy, and if it awnsers "You'll never hear from me again.", I would retort "that is insuficient, I want to see you DIE!"...
Re:text selection (Score:2)
Go to
Then modify Editing Options.
BTW, as an experiment, hunt down all the "automatic" features aka default settings. Turn them off. Then use the software and time how long it takes you to start wishing you hadn't messed with the settings.
Re:text selection (Score:2)
Just because some secretery needs an autoselect feature doesn't mean the rest of us should suffer from it. Tell the programmers you know about the "leave me the fuck alone" (or "toggle idiot mode", as you put it) concept, we need to get the ball rolling on this one!
Re:Test selection and other things (Score:2)
I should have said "on top" of the current 15 thing, rather than "instead".
I don't mind that the features exists, I mind that they are shoved down my throat and that I have to jump through fiery hoops to shut them off.
The "leave me the fuck alone" philosophy:
Re:text selection--change apps. (Score:2)
I'm looking for it in explorer...I can't find it.
I do have a headache...maybe it'll be there if I look later.
Die Clippy Die (Score:2)
Making Better Decisions, Avoiding Mistakes (Score:2)
Guy: Hey bartender, another beer!
Smart Machine: That is highly inadvisable. You've already had two beers, and a third would leave your cognative functioning impaired.
Guy: Look, metal dude, I can totally handle it!
Smart Machine: My sesnsors indicate that a third beer would put you over the legal blood alcohol limit for this state. You cannot risk it.
Guy: Shut the HELL up already! Goddamn machine!
not again (Score:2)
Or, how about the long-ago promises of Minsky et al on the "future" of AI, only to find that now they consider the problem too difficult?
This sounds like a little more of the same, some people working on some software that won't be realized for the obligatory "10 years".
I will not be holding my breath.
Let me guess the responses (Score:3, Funny)
That could replace most of my family right there.
Over-reaching. (Score:2)
Really? 10 years. Don't think so.
Re: (Score:2)
Cognitive Model??? (Score:2)
This sig is covered by the MyPL. Anyone who reads it owes me money!
Put the gun down, Hal. (Score:2)
Just like the car rental commercial where they have this team of crackpot marketroids trying to figure out how to differ
This is BS (Score:3, Interesting)
We've all seen this so many times before. Artificial Intelligence is a sham. It's analagous to alchemy. If you just put enough ingredients together, you've got intelligence. Bullshit. We don't even know what is necessary and sufficient for intelligence. We can't agree on the concept/definition, and I fear that if we could, no human would qualify.
As pertaining to this article...it's easy to get something that resembles intelligence in a closed, restricted, experimental environment. When you try to expand it, you get something like clippy. Annoying and unhelpful, and certainly not intelligent.
There are good, efficient algorithms that can help humans in many ways. But don't call it a "synthetic human," don't call it "intelligence," and don't believe it's going to start thinking for us in general terms. That fad went out in the 70's.
Re:This is BS (Score:2)
When the developers get that idea out of their heads and focus on developing machine intelligence then we'll get somewhere.
What's the difference between the two. Heh, that's the bug-bear: We can't even define what our intelligence is, so how can we define others?
Much of the problem is the abstract nature of human language. We think in our languages but they are abstracts of reality, not reality itself.
Wh
Re:This is BS (Score:2)
It's only a sham because no one has succeeded yet. That doesn't mean we should stop working on it. Someone will succeed sooner or later. And we are getting closer to it so rapidly that it kinda frightening. It is inevitable.
So in one sense you are right, anyone talking about AI they have now is blowing a little smoke.
On the other hand it is a legitimate field with tons of really exciting research
Scifi and chess analogues (Score:2, Interesting)
Of course, once the cognitive model becomes good enough, the temptation (economic imperative?) will be to offload some of the actual work onto it. This idea, taken to an extreme, is the topic of an excellent short story:
"I was six years old when my parents told me that there was a small, dark jewel inside my skull, learning to be me." (Greg Egan, "Learning to be me", Axiomatic collection)
Back on the topic of augmented intelligence, Kasparov has been advocating allowing mixed human/computer teams in "A [chessbase.com]
Reminds what Dostoyevsky said (Score:2, Interesting)
This doesn't exactly relate to the article, but the article reminded me of this.
When Machines act like humans . . . (Score:4, Interesting)
If your machine starts arguing with you, how do you determine the flaw? When it keeps making consistently wrong decisions, who is to blame.
I'm seeing a WHOLE new way around tech support here. Just keep telling the users that the machine is right and they're wrong. How will the average user know?
All jokes aside, as we humanize software, we need to develop ways to evaluate it and debug it that will require whole new ways of thinking.
Ten years? I'm not so sure it'll be that quick . .
Life is filled with exceptions... (Score:2)
But then there is this.... which means...
Resistance is Futile, you will be assimilated into the "norm" and prevented from doing anything outside of the percalculated norm.
Intelligence - artificial or counterfeit? I forget (Score:2)
Human beings don't "forget" by simply deleting data from memory. Sure, things that have been learned-by-rote (i.e., verbatim & arbitrary S-R associations) are deleted (forgotten) if not reinforced. But what we learn "meaningfully" by associating new input with previously-acquired knowledge, is forgotten "meaning
This sounds like a typical smart-ass program! (Score:2)
discrepancies in a user's thinking and alert the user".
This sound an awful lot like "Clippy" raised to the Nth
power. I am certain that MS products will be the first
to feature this Smart-Ass computer technology, whereby
the computer will constantly correct you and interrupt
your thinking with irrelevant bullshit ("are you sure
you want to do this? maybe you want to do that").
On the other hand, just like spell-checking helps
pepole (sic) write clearly, maybe this w
Re:He's using KDE! (Score:2)
Re:Blackout 2003: The search for answers (Score:3, Insightful)
You do not work in the IT / Security field do you?
Microsofts explanations come LONG after the whole blackhat community knows about th
Re:Lack of Processing Power (Score:3, Insightful)
I think you just described an epileptic seizure.
Re:Lack of Processing Power (Score:2)
This doesn't take away one bit from what Slick Snake's saying.
Neurons grow new dendritic connections all the time & membrane potentials are more than binary (on-off) but can be hyperpolarized or depolarized on a continuum. In short, it'