Hong Kong's Lessons on Number Portability 205
Dr.Hair writes "Dan Gillmor once again hits the nail on the head with his comparison of Hong Kong's competitive mobile phone market to the United States. Experiences of incumbent carriers trying to thwart competition and stifle the free market in Hong Kong should be remembered as the FCC nudges US carriers to carry out number portability. In the end competition should provide better customer service, better coverage, and better pricing in the US, all of which will eat in to carrier profits. But it also might bring the US out of the tech backwaters, where customer lock-in is the marketing strategy and "innovation" is the spin of the day."
Can't wait for tomorrow... (Score:2)
Yup... (Score:2)
Why Not Wait (Score:3, Insightful)
Just an idea.
Re:Can't wait for tomorrow... (Score:2)
I also heard there will be world peace, no more hungry children, and SCO's corporate headquarters will burst into flames.
I hope we aren't dissapointed...
I dont see big changes, unfortunately (Score:2)
Its not a signal issue, per se, because I can use it downtown inside of huge office buildings. I called their tech support, and essentially got the answer that they arent d
Re:I dont see big changes, unfortunately (Score:2)
Re:I dont see big changes, unfortunately (Score:2)
b) you can switch plans all you want without a contract extension, its accepting the new PROMOTIONS that extends the contract, do a plan with no promos and you dont have to extend
Re:I dont see big changes, unfortunately (Score:2)
I told them that while Im out shopping for another phone, I may as well see if my neighbors have service from other companies which actually works inside their house. The support guy said
Similar in the UK (Score:4, Interesting)
Having said that, I changed my number last time - because the new one was much easier to remember
Simon.
Re:Similar in the UK (Score:2, Informative)
It is not about starting mobile numbers with 07 etc (IIRC, all mobile numbers in HK have to begin with a 9 or a 6 and all fixed lines, residential or sommercial start with 2 or 3 or only have 7 digits.).
Re:Similar in the UK (Score:2)
I remember one of the claimed benefits of the standardisation of numbers in the UK was easy portability between networks. and I do understand the meaning of the word
Simon.
Re:Similar in the UK (Score:2)
Re:Similar in the UK (Score:4, Interesting)
The only reason the US can get away with this is because the owner of the phone pays for both incoming and outgoing calls. It doesn't cost the caller anything extra to call a mobile phone.
Re:Similar in the UK (Score:2)
Re:Similar in the UK (Score:2)
If you call somebody on your mobile phone... you pay.
If somebody calls you on your mobile phone... you pay.
If somebody using a mobile phone calls you on your mobile phone... both of you pay.
Boy, are you getting screwed!
No, I prefer it that way. When somebody needs to call me, I don't want them to hesitate or be unable to do so because they would be charged for it. It can be quite inconvenient or costly to make a for-p
Only in Hong Kong (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Only in Hong Kong (Score:2)
Here in New Zealand, schoolchildren text a lot. University students text a lot too... Reason is simple: NZ$1.4/min at daytime on the prepaid plans, which is what most people on budget are in. If you talk just 30 min in NZ on that plan, you can get a 1500 min plan in HongKong.... I guess it is more than sufficent for most.... In fact, quite a few of my friends in HK ha
Re:Only in Hong Kong (Score:2)
Nope. Most schoolchildren in Scandinavia can do that too. They have even evolved a special language much like the internet codes (e.g. IMHO, YMMV etc.)
Every Company Seeks a monopoly (Score:5, Insightful)
If you look at the current homogenized radio market you could argue that the FCC has encouraged filesharing by ruining radio. Television the less said the better. At least, there is hope for phones and the internet.
Re:Every Company Seeks a monopoly (Score:4, Interesting)
I agree with your main points though.
I'm sorry? (Score:4, Insightful)
Secondly, I would argue that the FCC contributes to a poor market in this case, by shutting out all but a few players. These companies have licenses which amount to an effective monopoly over a segment of bandwidth. They have little incentive to be good to their customers, since the range of competition is also limited and like-minded.
Ironically, the reason why the FCC exists is to allocate interference-free frequecy bands, but the most advanced communication methods in use (i.e., spread spectrum) are expressly designed to tolerate interference. Perhaps the FCC has outlived its usefulness.
barter vs a free market (Score:3, Insightful)
Prostitution has a long history but it's not correct to therefore claim that every civilization is united by an appreciation of sexuality. Barter took place in Stalinist Russia, but did not constitute a free market. In addition to producers and consumers, a free market requires barriers to competition that are low; this will virtually never o
Re:I'm sorry? (Score:3, Informative)
no no no. don't confuse the existence of trade with free markets. Even in the Soviet Union you had to pay for food. There's no nation on earth that actually practices a truly free market -- they all have subsidies and import/export tariffs and restrictions that unfairly discriminate against at least some foreign imports. And many
Re:I'm sorry? (Score:2)
I am the first to say that I am not an expert on sumer, but unless they had a system in place that taxed uniformly, gave no preferential treatment to subgroups or particular individuals, provided no subsidies or incentives for otherwise non economic reasons, they didn't have a free market.
Perhaps you mean an efficient market ? One where prices are
Re:Every Company Seeks a monopoly (Score:3, Insightful)
No, it isn't.
It's the government's job to ensure that monopolies don't unfairly use their market dominance, and that shared spaces use the same standards.
Free Market Capitalism is the best measure of which markets should be monopolized and which ones do best when not monopolized.
If you look at the current homogenized radio market you could argue that the FCC has encouraged filesharing by ruining radio.
A better argument would be that the FCC has a
This has nothing to do with monoplies... (Score:3, Informative)
I don't see what this has to do with monopolies. Number portability does decrease the switching costs of consumers, but it doesn't give any company more of an advantage or disadvantage, and it's not going to change the number of companies on the market because it's regulated by the FCC.
Many economists would argue that the only true monopolies are those granted by the government - gas companies, local phone companies, cable companies, ect.
The interesting thing is that one of the most innovative and prof
Re:Every Company Seeks a monopoly (Score:2)
Really? Then how do explain that governments create monopolies all the time? Until relatively recently even in the UK, it was illegal to compete with British Telecom. It is still illegal to compete with Royal Mail for deliveries costing under a pound. A lot of deregulation happened in the 80s, breaking up the old monopolies in telecoms, gas, steel, etc and forcing them to compete.
In fact, no company can become a monopoly, or sustain a monopoly without
Oh God No! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Oh God No! (Score:2)
Were they talking to each other???
Re:Oh God No! (Score:2)
Even Worse (Score:5, Funny)
We Need the Phones Changed (Score:5, Insightful)
Things will be interesting for a while starting tomarrow as people take advantage of this new policy, but I think soon enough we'll see the phones change to everyone's benefit.
OK, I've said that 3 times now, so what do I mean? I mean that right now my Sprint phone wouldn't work if I go to AT&Ts network or Cingular's network or someone else. They all use different systems. It's mentioned at the end of the article that that just isn't the case in Hong Kong (and I believe in Japan and Europe and other places where they have number protability). The having to get a new phone part is still going to be a little bit of a wrench in this plan, but soon enough one or two carriers will try to make it so competitors phones will work on their network and maybe we'll end up with a standard (or just 3 standards that work everywhere). When this happens, our mobile phone market will be better.
It's about time this is fixed. Imagine if the government allowed TV to develop this way. You'd either be able to watch NBC, CBS, or ABC, but not all 3 unless you had 3 TVs. And if you tried to switch, you'd have to buy a new TV. Yeesh.
Horray for number portability, it's time to let the free market decide what sucks so things can improve more.
Not universal everywhere (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Not universal everywhere (Score:2)
I have to correct you here: In Britain there are Five providers, and the newest, 3 [three.co.uk], uses 3G CDMA, although it does use a SIM card. You are correct in that Orange, Vodafone, O2 and T-Mobile use GSM though.
Steve.
Re:Not universal everywhere (Score:2)
Yeah right. Technologically superior from the carrier point of view. But absolutely no concern about the interests of the consumer, the ability to switch phones and carriers at will.
The GSM system may be slightly older, but it is winning
Re:Not universal everywhere (Score:3, Informative)
This is entirely dependent on the network you use. Orange lock all of their phones, whereas Vodaphone generally don't (although a few of their recent Live! offerings have been locked). The process of unlocking the phone is completely legal in a lot of cases. I used to have a Siemens SL42e on Orange. You could unlock it by sending it to an official Sieme
Re:Not universal everywhere (Score:3, Informative)
It's 100% legal in all cases. You own the phone, you can unlock the SP lock if you wish - there is absolutely nothing illegal about it, that's why you see it advertised in shop windows etc.
Changing the IMEI number (GSM serial number, basically) is illegal, however because this is what the CEIR blocklist [gsmworld.com] for stolen phones it based upon. You can see your IMEI on a GSM handset by ptying *#06#
Re:Not universal everywhere (Score:2)
D.
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2, Informative)
Phones in the places you have mentioned, such as Hong Kong, use GSM mobile phone networks, at either 800 MHz, 900MHz, 1800MHz or 1900MHz. North America uses 1900MHz GSM networks, which are not used in many places elsewhere. In Europe and Asia, GSM phones are made dual band, that is, they are able to cater to 2 frequencies, the 2 common ones. A different (and oftentimes more expensive) phone is needed if you wish to use it in the US, a tri-band pho
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2)
More than a few large cities. AT&T is rolling out GSM to all of their service area, and have done most or all of the major metro areas already:
AT&T Wireless GSM map [attwireless.com]
Cingular has done the same:
Cingular CSM map [cingular.com]
AT&T and Cingular were the two major TDMA networks in the US, and have are converting to GSM.
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2)
This is only kinda true, and for two different reasons that are worth explaining:
First, several of the US carriers use network protocols (CDMA, TDMA) that aren't supported anywhere else, so if you buy a CDMA phone from Verizon it won't physically cannot work with T-Mobile's GSM network, but it will physically work with Alltel's CDMA network.
However, betw
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2)
I regularly (i.e. each year) switch to another provider expressly to get a new phone. Hands
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2)
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2)
If you see the history of color television, you will find that the government attempted to mandate a standard that would have stranded lots of people into those who could see color programs, and those who could not. (The FCC chose the CBS color TV system, which was incompatible with the b+w we were using. They made the choice early enough and few people had TV's at that time anyway...but RCA sued, delaying the final de
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2)
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2)
Re:We Need the Phones Changed (Score:2)
I'm not sure if I've understodd you properly... apologies if not... The SIM is network dependant, and is usually the property of the network anyway. The SIM allows you to change handsets by swapping the SIM, but not networks... so this is not number portability in the sense the article speaks about.
However, you can often change ne
That's great (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:That's great (Score:2)
Move to Canada. (Score:2)
Re:That's great (Score:2)
The technical measure is that there is a lock code in the phone known as MSL (master subsidy lock). The business reason behind this is that the phones are subsidised. You pay an up front fee for the phone, but that is nowhere near the actual cost of the phone. The provider then recovers the rest of the cost over the lifetime of your contract.
To get device portability, you would have to start paying the real costs of the device. These are in
My experience from Sweden (Score:5, Informative)
Not the only problem (Score:5, Informative)
When GSM first got going in N.America I bought a Motorola triband GSM phone ( 900,1800,1900 frequencies) from a Circuit City in Minnesota.
It was sold with a VoiceStream activation package.
Of course, when I took it home to Canada I found it was "SIMM locked" to only work with VoiceStream!
After some longish and not amusing phone conversations with VoiceStream I managed to get it unlocked by reminding them that they do not have service here in Canada.
Then I took it with me this summer to Malaysia and Singapore. That is when I found it was also crippled. The only frequency it would work on was the N.American 1900 band.
When I got back I contacted VoiceStream and Motorola to ask what it would take to restore the phone to allow it so work with the frequencies it was advertised as being capable of.
The response was that as VoiceStream ordered these with only 1900 capability the rest was "turned off" in the ROM version shipped to VoiceStream.
"Can they "repair" it?"
"No."
I will pay ( even though I should not have to)
"No"
Can I return it?
"No"
Total rip-off..
Re:Not the only problem (Score:2, Insightful)
When I got back I contacted VoiceStream and Motorola to ask what it would take to restore the phone to allow it so work with the frequencies it was advertised as being capable of.
The response was that as VoiceStream ordered these with only 1900 capability the rest was "turned off" in the ROM version shipped to VoiceStream.
Then file a comp
Re:Not the only problem (Score:2)
Re:Not the only problem (Score:5, Informative)
I had purchased an unlocked 8290 (brand new) over the net. Great little phone, I really liked it, but the problem was that some brain-surgeon at Nokia had decided that to "assist" operators, the phone would auto-lock itself to the first SIM that was inserted into it.
Never mind that when you buy the phone it was unlocked and would accept any carrier's SIM, but afterwards it locked and you were stuck.
Needless to say, I was mad. Phoned Nokia, who said "We can't generate an unlock code for the phone, call your provider". Called the provider "We don't carry that model, so we can't generate a code.". Argh. Of course it was especially annoying that obviously Nokia COULD help me, but they chose not to. Soured me on Nokia phones something fierce.
In the end, buying a $10 cable and using a free utility off the 'net unlocked the phone in about 2 seconds. Still, it was a problem that never should've happened.
That said, I'm on a Sony Ericsson P800 now and I love it - triband, totally unlocked, all of the goodies. I'm skipping the P900 for now (as it's just an incremental upgrade), but will probably pick up the next phone/PDA offering from SE (hopefully some-time in the summer/fall of next year).
Competition is good (Score:2)
Firms that can settle for making less profit, or who can innovate ways to legitimately earn top dollar for their products and services, will rise to the top, while those who can't compete will go out of business.
Re:Competition is good (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Competition is good (Score:2)
Before I buy new hardware, I try to read at least a couple of reviews.
If you don't do that, then it must not be worth your time. That is your decision in a free society, but capitalism is what brought consumer reports, etc., into being: They enjoy making a profit by distributing valuable information.
Re:Competition is good (Score:2)
Re:Competition is good (Score:2)
Re:Competition is good (Score:2)
Consumer reports isn't doing an adequate job, and nobody else has been clever enough (yet) to figure out a way to provide product reviews on a massive scale so that people will pay for them.
Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:2, Interesting)
This means we will see lower prices, worse service, worse coverage for rural areas and the big markets will be saturated with low-cost plans.
We might see some hardware consolidation - because only the really big players are going to be able to afford to stay in the game.
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:2)
I don't know where you're living, but that's been the top issue everywhere I've lived in the US. Price is always secondary to coverage (does it work indoors, does it work in the next state, etc).
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:3, Interesting)
Where the providers differentiate themselves is in rural coverage. Verizon wireless gave my friend *nearly 100%* coverage in Wyoming. We're talking CDMA coverage that's 100 miles away from the nearest town of more than 100. With Verizon, coverage is simply a non-issue: I would say that it's quite nearly 100
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:2, Informative)
Dring from San Francisco/San Jose to Los Angeles down I-5, Verizon(CDMA) sucks! (dropped calls, etc)
Cingular (GSM) on the other hand goes strong all the way, through the central valley farm land.
-Grump
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:2)
I was recently on the roof of a building in Boulder where I had line-of-sight to most of the city. I got three out of four bars.
I had assumed that Verizon simply sucked, but maybe it's my phone.
--
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:3, Interesting)
Indeed... where I live (rural NH) this is a serious issue, since the real-life coverage (as opposed to thier coverage maps) is a spotty patchwork quilt of carriers. For example, nobody has coverage at all in my town (we have a tower, but they've been dickering with the landower over leases for years), Sprint and
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:2, Insightful)
And as the article points out, there are rural areas in Hong Kong (NT and Outlying Islands) that aren't served by all mobile carriers. But they do get served.
Some of the low cost companies will cherry pick the big cities, but as long as there is a market, the free market says a player will exist to exploit it.
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:2, Interesting)
As far as I know, Verizon hasn't changed anything, just their advertising. All of their maps now say that a solid color indicating coverage is not an indication of actual coverage in any specific area.
In Chicago people can't seem to agree who has the worst service. If Cingula
Re:Its gonna be a race for the bottom ... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re: Race for the bottom ... My HK experience (Score:2)
On another note - something else the US should emulate...
In HK every time you use a mobile you pay for your minutes, making AND receiving a call. It is gr
Re: Race for the bottom ... My US experience (Score:2)
There is no penalty for calling a cell. The cellphone owner pays for both sending and receiving calls.
Step in the right direction (Score:2)
So, for the average consumer, number portability will do you no good while locked into a contract. Step in the right direction tho..
Hopefully... (Score:2)
Re:Step in the right direction (Score:4, Insightful)
Compare it to buyinga PDA or a laptop computer.
Then, you went and picked a phone plan you want and they gave you the account information in a SIM card, which you put in whatever phone you got and you're off to the races.
But in the US, phone prices were deemed too high to make good inroads, so providers subsidised the cost of the phones. So you buy your service and it comes with a "free" phone, or a "$30" phone.
When someone's phone breaks, they take it in and find that to get a new phone, they will have to pay over $100 for essentially the same model phone. Outrage ensues!
Of course, the subsidising didn't work out exactly well because people got unhappy with some aspect of the service and left for another company. That's where the 1- and 2-year contracts started coming in, so the providers could recoup the costs of subsidising the phone.
In the mean-time, US cellular phone customers have come to believe that cell phones truely cost around $30-$50 and balk at paying what amounts to actual retail price for one. It doesn't help that many of these cell phones look and feel like $30 pieces of electronics rather than the $180+ pieces of highly engineered hardware that they really are.
Re:Step in the right direction (Score:2)
This was not the experience of a friend of mine, who came back from teaching English in Japan for a year.
"Wait, you mean I have to PAY for this big, crappy phone?"
That was his exact quote. The phone he had from Japan (and for some reason couldn't get to work in Canada, I didn't pay much attention there) was half the size, ran longer on a charge, and had way more features than anything he could get here.
Re:Step in the right direction (Score:2)
Subsidies are very well known here in Denmark. When the phone companies are in a price war, you can quite often get a brand new GSM phone for DKK 1, that is around USD 0.16. The catch is of course that with it you have to buy a phone plan. But since the maximum duration of any phone plan in Denmark is six months (
Re:Step in the right direction (Score:2)
In Europe and Japan, most folks don't need to know what protocol is used by their phones to communicate with the network because it's a standard.
In the US, everyone *should* know, but they don't because the providers never bring it up for fear of confusing folks (which it would). CDMA
Germany's Lessons on Number Portability (Score:2, Interesting)
nobody cares.
Only a small percentage of the swappers
take their number with them.
This is partly blamed to the high costs
around 25 Euros.
Re:Germany's Lessons on Number Portability (Score:2)
Just like DTMF dialing, the telco's want to suck it up and dine on the pocket-books of their customers far longer than needed. So, far from just covering costs, it becomes it's own profit center.
If local telco's were more honest about the charges needed and ceased charging when it wasn't required, we'd not fight tooth and nail to keep them from charging when needed. But since they do everything they can to take adv
Dan's hot...check his stuf (Score:3, Informative)
eJournal [siliconvalley.com]
Danish experiences (Score:5, Informative)
Best current rates in Denmark are about 10c/min, SMS's are 3-4c apiece with no subscription. Some expect the price to fall even lower within the next year. The government agency on IT and Communication runs a helpful price guide [teleprisguide.dk] to internet and phone providers. Of course all the providers interoperate, so you can just switch sim cards to switch provider and you can call and SMS anyone.
Several providers offer subsidized phones that can be very cheap, but they're not allowed to simlock it to their network for longer than 6 months. It's not illegal to have the simlock prematurely unlocked and it is offered publicly [simlock.dk] for 15-20 Euro. (You might get better rates elsewhere). Your contract will however be enforceable, so you'll pay subscription fees. I used this possibility recently to use my phone with a german provider during my stay there. (It's illegal in Germany though - I sent my phone from Germany to Denmark to have it unlocked - go call the police)
Innovation? (Score:3, Insightful)
These people have such an bizzare facility with language that it would make Orwell's Big Brother blush. "Innovation" is NewSpeak for thwarting innovation, and "competition" means eliminating all competitors.
"When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less" - Humpty Dumpty - Through the Looking Glass
I have the opposite of what this aims to solve... (Score:2)
I currently have a cell phone with a major provider whose name sounds a lot like "Squint." I've also moved a couple times in the last year and a half. The first time I moved, I changed my phone number... then moved again 3 months later. The problem is that the company requires you to start a new contract every time you change numbers, and I wanted to switch providers when my contract ran out. My choice was either change phone # and start a new contract, or keep my phone number with an out-of-state area c
Number portability can be bad thing (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Number portability can be bad thing (Score:3, Informative)
Recently a couple of companies (Nextel for one) have offered plans with free incoming calls. But since the precedent has been e
Re:Number portability can be bad thing (Score:3, Interesting)
I for one welcome our new number portability overlords ;-). I'm currently in the process of changing my provider, but I wouldn't do this if I had to change the number
"Competition, LOLx2" -- Ma Bell (Score:2)
* AT&T is trying to enforce it's monopoly rights over certain kinds of electronic transactions.
* The cell industry just was drug kicking and screeming to number portability.
* Annual service terms are being snuck into many isp and t1 contracts
I would say that there is no news that a utility opposes anything that affe
just wait for true number portability.... (Score:2, Interesting)
They're not there yet. I was able to retain my landline phone number when switching providers (BellSouth to Birch). However just moving down the road required a totally new phone number - with the same phone company. Makes no sense to me, because the cell phone companies and now the VoIP phone companies can give you a number in any area when you set up or move service. Especi
Fierce competition indeed! (Score:2, Funny)
Wow, that means the telecoms stand ready in the hospital when a new citizen is born. Fierce competition indeed!
Message from Hong Kong (Score:3, Informative)
So far I have once switched providers - an easy and painless issue. It cost me like $20 admin cost (1USD=7.8HKD, so that is abt USD2.5), and three days later it was ported over.
On calling cost: that is indeed truly low. I pay $89 (abt USD12) a month for 500 mins airtime (calling and being called), including call forwarding (press when being called on the mobile, and answer on the land line: no airtime paybable!), voicemail, SMS services, etc.
Calling landline to landline is free. Calling landline to mobile is free (mobile pays airtime only).
Calling cost are so low, many providers do not send you a paper invoice (costs $10 (just over USD1) service cost), only SMS and e-mail invoice.
Don't forget Hong Kongs 7mln people live on an area only 30x50 km in size, of which a large part is water. The high buildings are the largest problem for the networks: reflections. Buidling a country wide network is therefor easy and cheap. Networks are good and reliable, also high in the mountain (up to 990m high it goes here!) you have network.
Oh and for price comparison: though life is expensive, and Hong Kong has a name of being an expensive place to live, that is only housing. Everything else is cheap here.
Wouter.
Number portability leading to metric system perhap (Score:2)
My litre of water (weighing 1kg) will boil at 100C, and then freeze when it gets down to 0C. It's just so much easier....
Porting from Hell to Another (Score:2)
To wireline and wireless companies November 24th is a day that will live in infamy. It only will be available for about the top 100 markets. Everyone else has to wait until May 2004. Consumers will be able to take their cellular numbers from one carrier to another. Say like from SprintPCS to Verizon, or from their landline to a cellular carrier like SBC to Cingular (they are really the same company), or from a
Contract Law still locks most customers in (Score:2, Insightful)
Another form of lock-in, one based on economic norms, is the penalty to be payed when switching away from a wireless provider before your service term is up,which we all are bound to by contract.
Most people I know hate switching not because they have to switch numbers, but because they have to pay a stepp $200+ fine for end
Re:Hrumph... (Score:2, Informative)
To allow businesses to compete on something that isn't their property is definitely ludicrous.
Re:Comparing Hong Kong to the Continental U.S.?? (Score:3, Informative)
We've had number portability for a couple of years now...and I don't think you'll find many countries much less densly populated.
Re:Someone needs to build a phone swap database. (Score:2)
In Denmark your phone company has to give you the simlock code after 6 months at most. Why don't you make a similar rule? In my experience it's a lot simpler than "swap pages" could ever hope to be.