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High-Tech Firms Worry About Taiwan-China Tensions 482

Andy Tai writes "This San Jose Mercury News story shows high tech companies in the Silicon Valley worry about a possible war between mainland China and Taiwan. Both play important roles in the computer industry and the U.S. depends on both to finance the federal budget deficits. Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self-destructive path."
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High-Tech Firms Worry About Taiwan-China Tensions

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  • by j0keralpha ( 713423 ) * on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:31PM (#7712624)
    the memory shortages several years back when the taiwanese warehouses and manufacturers we blown away by a typhoon?

  • by eidechse ( 472174 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:34PM (#7712647)
    Looks like the old "The is only one China" Jedi mind trick is becoming less effective.
  • Reasons (Score:4, Insightful)

    by jesser ( 77961 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:34PM (#7712648) Homepage Journal
    Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.

    Meanwhile, hippies hope that love of peace will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path, and Slashdotters hope that considering the impact of a war on American technology consumers will prevent the war.
    • by fm6 ( 162816 )
      You're confusing hippies [sixties.com] with pacifists [bluffton.edu]. Both are guilty of a certain wishful thinknfulness, but otherwise they have little in common.

      The hippie is a convenient straw man. The word has so many associations with shiftlessness and stupidity that even counterculture folks like Ken Kesey [charm.net] use it as a term of a abuse. But it's not fair to saddle every idealistic philosophy with the label. Especially the pacifists, who have been around for centuries, and even played a role in the founding and settlement of the U

  • by tobes ( 302057 ) * <tobypadilla@gmail.cTEAom minus caffeine> on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:35PM (#7712651) Homepage
    Maybe now execs will start to see the true value of keeping their high tech centers located in stable political environments.
  • Oh good (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Pingular ( 670773 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:35PM (#7712653)
    It's nice to think that what with war looming, the prospect of thousands of people being killed, all business men can think about is money. It sickens me.
    • Re:Oh good (Score:5, Insightful)

      by nodwick ( 716348 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:48PM (#7712726)
      Before you start jabbering about "war looming", you might want to look up your history a bit and realize that this sort of trash talk happens every election year in Taiwan. Nothing much has come out of it so far. Talking about political independence in Taiwan is a lot like talking about "increasing national security" and "fighting the terrorists" is in the U.S. right now -- it's a guaranteed attention-getter and makes the electorate feel warm and fuzzy about you.

      And I'm not sure if you were being ironic with your "money is bad, think about the children" line, but note that in this case the point is that the lost revenue would actually be a deterrent for war. In other words, economic factors are actually helping to make the war less likely.

      • Re:Oh good (Score:2, Informative)

        by dbIII ( 701233 )

        Before you start jabbering about "war looming", you might want to look up your history a bit and realize that this sort of trash talk happens every election year in Taiwan.

        The difference here is that each time in the past the USA has made a point of letting China know that it would fight to stop an invasion of Taiwan. Things have changed, as seen in a recent GW Bush speech on the issue.

        In other words, economic factors are actually helping to make the war less likely.

        The problem with that damn invisible

    • Re:Oh good (Score:2, Insightful)

      by sql*kitten ( 1359 ) *
      It's nice to think that what with war looming, the prospect of thousands of people being killed, all business men can think about is money. It sickens me.

      Oh please. Are you saying that whenever there's a mere potential of anything bad happening anywhere in the world we should all just stop and contemplate our navels until the problem goes away?

      No, life goes on. People go about their business, as normally as possible, whatever the situation because that's what we do. A lot of Liberal whining about how evi
      • I far more useful thing to worry about is that the US 7th Fleet generaly stays parked in the straits seperating the PRC from the ROC.

        In short, the US has voiced its willingness to bomb the shit out of China over this matter several times.

        On a historicaly corrective note... Mao's starvation of 60 (not 50) million in the Great Leap Forward was a lot less about maintaining his hold on power (anyone who can manage to starve 60 million people has plenty of that) but more about trying to jumpstart China's econ
      • A lot of Liberal whining about how evil businessmen... from a Liberal to criticize their fellow Communists

        You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means...
  • Shortages (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Hanzie ( 16075 ) * on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:36PM (#7712657)
    Walmart gets a very large portion of their stuff from China. It would probably cause prices to rise on darn near everything in the US.

    That would not necessarily be a bad thing. Probably help out domestic manufacturing.
    • Walmart gets a very large portion of their stuff from China. It would probably cause prices to rise on darn near everything in the US. That would not necessarily be a bad thing. Probably help out domestic manufacturing.

      The impact of war on this country would be none too pleasant. Goods shortages mean price rises means inflation means rising interest rates. The war would also disrupt Chinese purchases of American debt -- further driving up interest rates.

      With higher interest rates would come debt
  • No foolin' (Score:3, Interesting)

    by antizeus ( 47491 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:38PM (#7712663)
    Also consider the large number of immigrants from China (both the ROC and the PRC) in the Silicon Valley. Many of them have family back there who would be caught in the conflict. I used to work for a company in which a majority of the people were from Taiwan. I can imagine them getting quite worried.
  • It's funny... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by adept256 ( 732470 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:41PM (#7712684)
    They say they don't want a war because it'd be unprofitable. Isn't avoiding unnecessary bloodshed a good enough reason anymore?
    • Re:It's funny... (Score:3, Interesting)

      by sql*kitten ( 1359 ) *
      They say they don't want a war because it'd be unprofitable. Isn't avoiding unnecessary bloodshed a good enough reason anymore?

      History has shown that while not a perfect solution, intertwining economies is the single best method of preventing wars. A lot of Liberal hand-waving and bleating won't change that. See, you don't understand what profit is. Profit is what happens when person A produces something person B wants, and person B trades something person A wants for it. Profit is the surest guarantor of
    • Re:It's funny... (Score:3, Insightful)

      by colmore ( 56499 )
      Isn't avoiding unnecessary bloodshed a good enough reason anymore?

      Was it ever?

      Looking back on history, I think the failure to avoid World War I, perhaps the most pointless conflict that has ever been waged, pretty well damns humankind.
    • Anymore? (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Synn ( 6288 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:57PM (#7712798)
      "Avoiding unnecessary bloodshed" hasn't worked as a reason for the last 4000 years or so, why would it work any better today?

      If money keeps these morons from fighting, then I say hurrah for money.
  • by nuggz ( 69912 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:41PM (#7712685) Homepage
    Come on, this is WHY it is cheap and effective to use offshore suppliers.

    The reason that many countries are expensive is because they are safe and stable.
    The laws, workforce, international situation are all good, you are likely dealing with an expensive country.
    If you go to some country that has "political risk" the costs will be lower to account for this, everyone who does business with such a country must account for this risk.

    If you want a safe stable place to do business keep it in a stable country, Don't put it in a semi independant nation/state mess on the other side of the world.
  • Memory (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Hanzie ( 16075 ) * on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:42PM (#7712694)
    I doubt Hyundai (South Korea) or Micron are particularly worried. In fact, they might prefer a war between the Chinas.

    Personally, I wondered why Hong Kong banks didn't get together and go buy a small South American country, like Peru. Land is so expensive there that they're buying fill from mainland China to expand the island (with fiber optics and other necessary utilities built in as it goes).

    If they had just bought Peru (or any other small, poor country) they could have done some terrific things.

    Israel could do the same thing. Their neighbors would probably pay for the purchase. I'm certain they could even take the holy land with themselves. How many feet down? 6? load it onto freighters and ship it to wherever they bought. Bang, the mideast problems ends.

    • by niom ( 638987 )
      Have you considered Peru might not be for sale?
      • buying a country (Score:4, Interesting)

        by Hanzie ( 16075 ) * on Saturday December 13, 2003 @06:47PM (#7713087)
        Check the price of land in Taiwan. Check the price of land in Peru.

        An old adage in business: for enough money ANYTHING is for sale. Taiwan doesn't have to show up and say: How much for your lovely country, they could just start buying up real estate. Asian bankers have bucks and backing. It wouldn't take much to start developing Peru, or whatever other country was available.

        Look, they might need some new laws regarding percentage ownership, but it's not like they couldn't buy political influence too. I'm also not talking about throwing out the old population, just buy, develop and move in.

        If Peru doesn't want the obvious economic benefits, there are certainly other countries that would take the deal.

    • by fm6 ( 162816 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @06:34PM (#7713007) Homepage Journal
      Are you kidding? A war between China and Taiwan would not be limited to the Taiwan Strait. Especially not in the Korean penninsula, the northern part of which is occupied by a nasty little totalitarian state that is kept out of trouble mainly by the restraint of their Chinese partners. If China is distracted by a war and the ensuing hassles with the rest of the world, the North Korean leadership might well see an opportunity to implement their one chance of long-term survival: forced reunification with the South. The alternative is to wait for their jerrybuilt system to collapse of its own weight, at which time I wouldn't want to be a member of the DPRK ruling elite!

      Of course they'd fail, since the U.S. couldn't allow them to succeed. But the fighting would devestate Korea and place a nasty strain on U.S. military resources, which are already stretched. Let's see, that would leave two of the most productive economies in Asia (Taiwan and Korea) in utter ruins, with millions of unemployed. And the U.S., which is already spending gazillions it doesn't have, would be spending gazillions more. So economic hard times here, for a bunch of reasons.

      And that's the best case scenario. It assumes the DPRK doesn't have more than a couple of nukes...

      • Actually I lived in South Korea for a while. North Korea's best shot at surviving is to sell about 200 square miles of land along the DMZ to the highest bidder, and open up.

        We're talking horribly rural land right next to some of the most highly developed urban land in the world. South Korea needs room and they'd pay the north big bucks for the development privlegd.

        There would be some heavy social consequences (see East + West Germany) but North Korea is sitting on a ton of extremely valuable real estate
    • Re:Memory (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Brian Stretch ( 5304 ) *
      Personally, I wondered why Hong Kong banks didn't get together and go buy a small South American country, like Peru.

      That only works when the people in the country you're buying land in have a VERY solid concept and implementation of property rights. South American governments tend to be a bit shaky about that. Even if you did buy up the land successfully, sent over enough citizens to be the majority, declared it "New Taiwan" or such, you'd still have to defend it from a bunch of neighbors who probably w
  • by Anonymous Coward
    I mean if there's conflict, what's going to happen to Red Flag Linux? I suppose SUN can use this as free advertising for their Java Desktop -- The Choice(TM) of a government who does not like choices.

    Of course if they had emperor McBride, all they have to do is say that Taiwan is a derrivative work of mainland China and as such belongs to China. They can then proceed to charge $699 for each person who wishes to live in Taiwan.
  • by Rosco P. Coltrane ( 209368 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:48PM (#7712728)
    Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.

    Both economically and militarily, there won't be mutual self-destruction between mainland China and Taiwan. Instead, there will be one huge mammoth of a country squashing a football-field-sized other country.

    And there won't be economic or military sanctions on China (the threat of which is what prevented it from harming Taiwan for so long) because now the US, the only country able to inflict any kind of sanctions on China, has vested interests in both countries.

    The only thing China risks is reproachful looks at the UN for a while, then after everybody there is done looking really shocked, Taiwan will be history. Proof is, if the rest of the world had any kind of power against China's actions, Tibet would have been freed a long time ago.

    In short: Taiwan's days are numbered.
    • Taiwan does have nukes (last I heard, circa 20 nuclear-tipped cruise missiles). Launch those into Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and a few other choice locations, and while it's far from mutually assured destruction, it would set the Chinese economy back at least a decade and into chaos for a while.

      • Yeah, and no-one would blame China for totally carpeting-bombing Taiwan back to the stone age. Taiwan thanks its safety to two things: the fact that china does not have sufficient naval power for a succesful invasion and world opinion.
        I have no doubt that using nuclear weapons would totally negate the last thing, and thereby allow China to just bomb taiwan.
    • The only thing China risks is reproachful looks at the UN for a while, then after everybody there is done looking really shocked, Taiwan will be history. Proof is, if the rest of the world had any kind of power against China's actions, Tibet would have been freed a long time ago.

      Tibet and Taiwan aren't quite analogous. Here are a few differences:

      1. China already controls Tibet. It is easier to keep a country from annexing than to "liberate" some existing portion of it.
      2. Tibet is inaccessible, Taiwan is ea
    • by HeghmoH ( 13204 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @06:14PM (#7712912) Homepage Journal
      This is a rather bad assesment of the likely outcome. Let's ignore outside powers for a second, and just look at China versus Taiwan. The former has about 30 times the population and (guessing) probably five or six times the economic output. However, China's air force is not terribly modern and, most critically, they have practically no navy. Since the two are separated by a good chunk of ocean, the only way China could conquer the country is by sending soldiers over on boats. They don't have enough boats.

      China's saber-rattling is just bluster. They could probably gain air superiority and bomb everything into tiny pieces, but that kind of runs counter to their stated goal of reunification. They don't threaten a massive bombing campaign, they threaten invasion. They don't have what it takes to actually pull one off, though.

      It already looks bad, now enter the external powers. Particularly the United States. The US has very strong treaties and military ties with Taiwan. We have not hesitated to send a carrier battle group into the area before when things heated up. China sells us things for cheap, but if the US failed to defend Taiwan after promising to do so, our alliances with the rest of the world wouldn't be worth the paper they were written on.

      China's leaders may be overly powerful and overly willing to exercise that power, but they are rational. They know that their nice lives will be rather disrupted during a gigantic slug-fest involving China, Taiwan, and whatever US carrier battle groups and long-range bomber wings are able to make it to the party in time.

      Taking all of this into account, I don't worry when I read these stories. Both sides are run by rational people. Rational people don't start wars they can't win for stupid reasons.
      • by slashdot_commentator ( 444053 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @10:16PM (#7714056) Journal
        Your military assessment of China is pretty poor too. What do you think they're doing with all that money they're generating from exports? Highways, swimming pools, and caviar for the Party elite?

        China has been doing a massive modernization of its military forces, and that includes its air force. Part of the problem with gauging their progress is that they are home-basing much of their military production. Even if their current fighters can barely match US fighters 2:1, a 3:1 edge still means less US planes will be in the air at the end of the engagement.

        They don't need a navy to take back Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't have much of a navy either. And no way will they be able to spend to create a navy comparable to the US fleet. Its much cheaper to sink the US fleet (with missles), and then ship the troop transports across. (Oh yeah, don't forget the paratroop forces.)

        The biggest dirty secret is that in order to have an effective military force, you have to use it. Its the only way to work out the kinks in strategic construction and tactics. China hasn't conducted a significant military operation since the early '80's, and that army got their asses handed to them by the Vietnamese. If the Chinese have a truly wise military and party leadership, they wouldn't execute an invasion merely because they couldn't be sure the combined arms wouldn't shoot each other at a crucial point. I bet there's at least one Chinese general pretty bummed they didn't contribute a contingent force to Iraq.

        As for counting on the US to meet its defense obligations to Taiwan, the Bush government has consistently talked through both sides of its mouth. I really have a problem believing that the US can stomach having one of their billion dollar carriers at the bottom of the sea over Taiwan. And trust me, if the Chinese can't sink a carrier group with ten thousand missles, they'll make sure one of them is nuke tipped.

        No, I agree, China won't invade Taiwan because after they're victorious, they'd only have a smoking ruin to show for it. The party line is that with Chinese manufacturing power, Taiwan has to move its factories to the mainland to compete internationally, and in thirty years, they will have to accede to the mainland, or else the economic embargoes will pretty much ruin Taiwan. The problem is that there is a HEAVY nationalist streak in their party leadership, particularly the military. You cannot imagine the resentment they have towards the US government for telling them they can't "administer" their own province. It would be much like China telling the Bush administration they had to do a general vote recount for Florida for the 2000 election, but then actually having the power to make the recount happen.

        It would be a mistake to believe war couldn't happen because of rational people in power. Remember, Hitler was ELECTED Chancellor. There were no hanging chads or Supreme Court in that election.
  • A little history... (Score:4, Informative)

    by ChangeOnInstall ( 589099 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:50PM (#7712743)
    For anyone who is as utterly clueless as I was about what's going on between China and Taiwan, take a look at this:

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/china/china-ta iwan.html [pbs.org]
    • It is a good introduction. Unfortunately, it forgets to mention any background before Chiang Kai-shek withdrew in 1949. Many westerners tend to think mainland China and Taiwan are two completely unrelated regions and should be considered as two countries. I hope the following summary can help the reader to decide themselves.

      First, we need to make clear about the population profile in modern day Taiwan. Only 1 % are aboriginal people (more similar to polynesian living around the Pacific islands), about
  • Taiwan and China (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Raynach ( 713366 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:50PM (#7712746) Homepage
    There is little possibility of a land war between Taiwan and China, and there always has been. Taiwan's been non-hostile towards China for the last, oh, 50 years, since Chiang Kai-shek retreated his forces there after the Chinese Communist Revolution. They have, however, built up enough military defense to fend off the sizeable Chinese military force, so a land invasion by China would be one hell of a battle that China would have trouble winning. Also, the Taiwanese government would have to draw in the Americans into the war to, well, protect economic interests, as usually is the reason for most American military intervention. So what we would have would be another Vietnam, or more plausibly, another Korea where the Americans and Chinese are fighting war against each other through a third nation.

    But as I said before, a war between the two countries isn't likely. China knows the consequences of going into Taiwan; it would lead to American intervention and probably put an end to Chinese economic development and lucrative trade China does with the United States.


    • China knows the consequences of going into Taiwan; it would lead to American intervention and probably put an end to Chinese economic development and lucrative trade China does with the United States.
      ...Or as Roger Waters (post Pink Floyd) once put it: "By the grace of god almighty, and the pressures of the marketplace, the human race has civilized itself." It's a miracle. :)=
  • by Osrin ( 599427 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:52PM (#7712758) Homepage
    ... between the two of them in the past, what on earth could people be worried about?
  • by Anonymous Coward
    China didn't keep it's territory intact over 3000 years by letting renegade provinces break away. China can and will control Taiwan again.

    Also China was basically the world leader in science and technology for most of world history so once this little western imperialism era thingy is over China will be back on top, probably for a couple thousand more years.
  • by b17bmbr ( 608864 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @05:56PM (#7712788)
    there wil not be a war between china and taiwan for several reasons. now you need to understand some military history (which fortunately is my vocation, geekdom being my avocation).

    first, china simply can't go to war with taiwan. (oh sure, they can fire some missles, but then see down the list.) see, to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa (taiwan strait) would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops. they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover, 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to protect the invasion from being observed from satelites, which would give us and taiwan advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and maintain a beachhead once there. it doesn't matter if you have one million, or 10 million, troops in an invasion. if you can't support them, they're targets.

    second, china built the three gorges dam. they have so much capital (even in communist china!!) tied up in it, it generates such a large portionof power. and, it is impssible to defend from air ro missile attack. we could take it out in about 10 minutes. and they're fscking toast.

    third, china is so dependent upon the US trade for an in flux of capital and hard currency. anything more than sabre rattling, and we shut that off, they take a shit. they are fscked.

    i could go on further. the cuyrrent regime is on its last legs. this is an in ternal power struggle between the old commies and the younger reformers. nothing else.
    • by Chemisor ( 97276 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @06:28PM (#7712982)
      > to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops.
      > they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover,
      > 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to
      > protect the invasion from being observed from
      > satelites, which would give us and taiwan
      > advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and
      > maintain a beachhead once there

      China has an excellent military, including an air force and the navy, which it can use quite effectively. Remember the time when Taiwan was having its first elections, back in 1996? China performed quite a show of force back then, holding exercises in which an occupying force took and held a beachhead and a few islands, giving a good proof of concept for a Taiwan invasion. The comparison with Normandy is misleading; Taiwan does not have anything comparable to the forces that Germans had on that beach. The coast of Taiwan is not all that well protected, and I doubt that the Chinese army would worry much about it, unless the U.S. decided to intervene. As for your comment about satellites; first, advance warning of a few hours is not going to help much against such a powerful adversary; second, if Saddam Hussein had no difficulty hiding tanks in the open desert from both the satellites and ground observation, surely, a technologically advanced nation like China could figure something out.

      > second, china built the three gorges dam.

      When important national interests are at stake, the Chinese government would be willing to overlook a few casualties.

      > we could take it out in about 10 minutes.

      Perhaps. But would we? The U.S. needs China way more than China needs the U.S.; China is the producer, the U.S. is the consumer. If the producer loses one market, it could find another. If the consumer loses the goods, he loses the goods. There is simply no way domestic industry could replace all the cheap imports from China. Slave labor is always cheaper than technology.

    • first, china simply can't go to war with taiwan. (oh sure, they can fire some missles, but then see down the list.) see, to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa (taiwan strait) would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops. they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover, 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to protect the invasion from being observed from satelites, which would give us and taiwan advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and maintain a beachhead onc
  • IMHO, China has way too much to lose from such an action. I'd say that a lot of their foreign relations (and potentially trade) would be compromised. The relationship between China and Taiwan can hardly be "internal". IIRC the United States sold weapons to Taiwan a while ago.

    I'd speculate China is very much interested in the lucrative semiconductor bussiness (Taiwan is clearly way ahead of China in this respect; technology exports to China are controlled), and certainly not in conquering Taiwan at any cos

  • Concern? (Score:2, Insightful)

    by malus ( 6786 )
    Neither of the countries have "vast oil reserves", so GWB isn't directly interested in stopping a lop-sided war... however, ... yeah, flamebait, i know.

    China did make a token gesture. They will do for Taiwan what they did for Hong Kong.

    There will be no referendum. There will be no independence. There will be only status quo, although, the ruling partyin Taiwan WILL get a nice dacha in northern province.
  • zerg (Score:5, Informative)

    by Lord Omlette ( 124579 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @06:08PM (#7712877) Homepage
    Aside from the fact that China doesn't give a fuck about economic concerns [agonist.org], there isn't much chance of a war happening.

    As unlikely as more people looking [prospect.org] to China than the U.S. for hopes for a better future.
  • There will ne no Taiwan China war. At least no longer than 72 hours. Without US direct militar support China will asume control of Taiwan in less than 72h from the start of invasion.
    • granted i am not an expert regarding china's exact military capabilities, but i dont believe they have the air power necessary to overwhelm Taiwan's air force to the degree necessary to have a sucessful airborne invasion. And a sealift ala D-day probably wouldnt work for the same reason, Taiwan's air force (we sell them a LOT of F-16's) would make short work of it.
    • by Erwos ( 553607 )
      Bad news for you, but there are a couple things mitigating against China winning a war against Taiwan:

      1. Taiwan has nukes. China has all of their cities on a densely populated coast. Do the math.
      2. The US typically keeps an aircraft carrier in the region when things get hot. The idea of the Chinese being able to invade Taiwan in the first place is extremely debatable. They simply do not have the amphibious assets to do so. And, even if they did, American air support would blow them to bits. Don't kid yours
  • by jjh37997 ( 456473 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @06:19PM (#7712934) Homepage
    Seriously, Taiwan needs to get a hold of some nuclear weapons. Since they're so close to mainland China they don't even need ICBM to deliver them. It's not like thye don't have the infrastructure to develop them, they just need some raw materials. Hell, if North Korea of all places can build some nukes then Taiwan sure can. Mutually assured destruction (MAD) kept the Western world safe when the USSR had the manpower to overrun Europe it can work for Taiwan too. Maybe they can buy a few from Israel. It the fear that Israel has a shitload of nukes that keeps the local Arab nations from trying to push them into the sea (that and the fact they kicked their ass the last two times they tried but I'm sure the nukes help).
  • No war.... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by herrvinny ( 698679 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @06:39PM (#7713034)
    There won't be a war between China and Taiwan. Why?

    1. US Popular Support For Taiwan. I don't care what the pessimists, Europeans, and US bashers out there say, the American people love the ideals of democracy, of freedom, etc. Being an American forces you to accept those ideals. Now, since the WMD is gone, Bush has justified the Iraq war as "helping the oppressed Iraqis". What about the Taiwanese? Aren't they going to be oppressed if China takes over? Damn straight they will. And Bush will be fscked, because even if he doesn't want war, his very actions doom him to this one action. There's a famous Latin phrase for this, but I forgot it. Anyone want to help me out?

    2. Saber Rattling. China has been rattling it's saber at Taiwan for what? Years, decades even. And it's gotten old. I'll believe the Chinese are going to invade Taiwan when I see shitloads of Chinese troops boarding a cruiser...

    3. Economic. China is a fscking Communist, if anyone's forgotten. It represses people. If China doesn't want to go into a recession, it won't invade. Guess what? If China invades, say goodbye to Chinese exports to Western nations. Goodbye to China's booming economy. And goodbye to general Chinese population happiness. China's people are tolerating the government because it's providing a growing standard of living (Although, speaking as a political scientist, it's unclear whether the Communist government can stay in power as capitalism, long a hallmark of Western democracies, booms). Anyway, when China's economy drops through the floor, what happens? Discontentment. Perhaps riots. Worst case scenario, China will need troops just to quell disturbances, etc.

    4. Western Help. Come on. As listed in #1, we're going to go help the Taiwanese. Subs, missiles, ships, etc. I'd like to see the nonexistent Chinese Navy, full of Chinese Army troops, get to Taiwan when confronted by the US Seventh Fleet. Not to mention high altitude bomber attacks.
    • Re:No war.... (Score:2, Informative)

      speaking from experience living in both countries, i think the saddest thing in this whole issue is that the mainland chinese public as whole dont care one bit about taiwan or its people, and as far as most of them realise it is and has always been an administrative region of the peoples republic of china. Modern china is not as repressive as most people would tend to think, however any news in relation to taiwan basically refers to taiwanese president chen shuibian as a "rebel leader" or something of that
  • by deconvolution ( 715827 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @07:05PM (#7713179)
    Taiwant governors are against the large-scale investment plan of taiwan major IT manufactors to mainland china for poiltical reasons.

    Furthermore they also disencourge people from mainland china visiting and treat all of them as spies. It means you must back to hotel before 7pm and report to your guide everyday! This prevents the normal technical communcation between two areas.

    Thirdly there are not direct tranportation method between mainland china to taiwan (must via a third place.) The import tax is almost free for transport industry goods from taiwan to mainland china but is very high for inverse.

    All of these aspects lead to the result of many additional, unreasonable costs are attached into the final IT products. One thing is surly confirm that many IT products will become much cheaper(such as motherboard, ram and monitor) if two areas are united, at least in terms of market.

    In addition, in fact, for chinese people, we dont call taiwan and china as two countries(For long time western medias have been misleading this key point where most Chinese people, even many people in taiwan, are strongly against). Instead, we use taiwan district of China and mainland China, or Republic of China and People's Republic of China, agreed with both governments.
  • oh... (Score:5, Funny)

    by Transcendent ( 204992 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @07:15PM (#7713230)
    ...will somebody PLEASE think of the computers!! I mean children.... no wait computer... chil... comput...

    which one are we worried about here?
  • by tehanu ( 682528 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @07:18PM (#7713253)
    "The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide. This has been so since antiquity. When the rule of the Zhou Dynasty weakened, seven contending kingdoms sprang up, warring one with another until the kingdom of Qin prevailed and possessed the empire. But when Qin's destiny had been fulfilled, arose two opposing kingdoms, Chu and Han, to fight for the mastery. And Han was the victor."

    "Before him bowed the kings of Shu and Wu,
    Content to forfeit kingly power for life.
    All down the ages rings the note of change,
    For fate so rules it; none escapes its sway.
    The three kingdoms have vanished as a dream,
    The useless misery is ours to grieve."

    These are the opening and ending lines of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, one of the most popular and well-known books in China. In the Chinese mentality the reunification of Taiwan with China is something that is going to happen eventually, if not right now. Why? They look at history. China has always split into 2 or more countries after the end of a dynasty and one of those countries has always gone and defeated the others to reunify China. Since it has always happened in the past it will happen in the future (Chinese believe strongly in cycles). If people wonder where China's obsession with unification comes from...Historical characters such as those in Three Kingdoms who reunite China (or try really really hard eg. Ngok Fei) are always admired and become national heroes and are even elevated to gods.

    I can see China invading Taiwan though not right now. If civil unrest continues in China and the economy goes downhill, in order to maintain power the government might raise the spectre of nationalism. Nationalism is already replacing Communism as the idealism the government is using to keep people loyal and faithful. And once nationalism is raised in rhetoric it may be a war that the Chinese government is forced into by its own proclaimations. It may back itself into a corner and decide invading and the consequences would be better than losing face. And unification has always been a fascination of the Chinese as books like Romance of the Three Kingdoms show. Think - a restless China with economic problems, a new young energetic Chinese premier comes into power on the back of a strong nationalist campaign. He thinks - could I become another Guan Yu from Three Kingdoms (who is now worshipped as a god)? The temptation to recreate the Oath of the Peach Tree Garden may be too hard to resist. Chinese rulers have done a lot more stupid illogical frankly self-destructive things in the past.

    In these circumstances, the needs of technology users in America are going to be the least of their considerations. Godhood or computer users in the US? Godhood or computer users in the US?

  • How Close Are We (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Quirk ( 36086 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @07:44PM (#7713383) Homepage Journal
    How close are we to developing a value system which would see war waged wherein the combatants maintain economic ties. There are many costs to war but one of the foremost costs is loss of economic infrastructure. Weren't there business relations between the Allies and Germany during WWII?
    • Re:How Close Are We (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Animats ( 122034 )
      How close are we to developing a value system which would see war waged wherein the combatants maintain economic ties?

      Members of OPEC have fought wars without dropping out of OPEC's price-fixing system.

      WWI was like that. Some international arms makers, including Vickers and Krupp, received royalties from both sides. They were heavily criticized for this. Read the original "Merchants of Death".

      This sort of thing worked better before air power. Wars used to start at frontiers and work towards the capi

    • Re:How Close Are We (Score:3, Interesting)

      by identity0 ( 77976 )
      Well, that's a bit farfetched, but you bring up a valid point. Economists have this thing called the "McDonalds Theory" on war, which basically says that countires which have McDonalds franchises are unlikely to go to war with one another, because having a McDonalds signifies a degree of free trade and openness to the west. I'm sure one or two wars/minor conflicts have been fought between such countries, though...

      It would be interesting to see what would happen to all the Chinese branches of U.S. corpora
  • by kaizenfury7 ( 322351 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @08:55PM (#7713700)
    Recent events have cast a more optimistic look on the whole situation. In this recent CNN article [cnn.com] on 12/11/2003, Wen says, "We respect the desire of the Taiwan people to develop and pursue democracy. However, we firmly oppose the attempts by certain separatist forces in Taiwan to pursue Taiwan independence under the disguise of promoting democracy in an attempt to cut of Taiwan from the mainland." If reunification is the purpose, there's no point in going there and blowing everything away.
  • Wow... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by KC7GR ( 473279 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @09:59PM (#7713984) Homepage Journal
    Maybe outsourcing all those electronic engineering and manufacturing jobs offshore wasn't such a good idea after all...

  • by UpLateDrinkingCoffee ( 605179 ) on Saturday December 13, 2003 @10:19PM (#7714069)
    I wonder if U.S. firms have thought about other instabilities such as the tension between India and Pakistan? If much of our capability to develop software is outsourced to India and all hell breaks loose, what happens to our tech industry then?
  • by randall_burns ( 108052 ) <randall_burns@@@hotmail...com> on Saturday December 13, 2003 @10:50PM (#7714188)
    Other industries have various risk factors that are concentrated geographically. They handle this by having future markets. That way major purchasers of a commodity don't have to worry much about highly uncertain stuff like wars and weather. For that matter, there are also futures on specifically related to weather(on the Chicago Board of Trade).


    The big question question here: why haven't the wizards of Wall Street done their job and gotten it together that factors like this just couldn't sabotage the Computer industry or western economies? I think the financial types need to do more real work and less politicing.

Solutions are obvious if one only has the optical power to observe them over the horizon. -- K.A. Arsdall

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